Most people have been saying that June felt like July and the weather statistics agreed. Well, if the weather models are correct, it’s looking like July will feel more like June — at least for the next forecast period.
Here is the big picture before we dive into the details for each of the three Prairie provinces: A ridge of high pressure is forecasted to begin building over the West Coast, while to the east, a large area of upper low pressure is forecasted to begin spinning up over western Hudson Bay. Now, for those not familiar with upper lows in the summertime, it is usually not good news. These lows will often sit in place, bringing what can only be described as nasty summer weather. Luckily, this low is not forecasted to be right over the Prairies.
Read Also
Alberta crop conditions improve: report
Varied precipitation and warm temperatures were generally beneficial for crop development across Alberta during the week ended July 8, according to the latest provincial crop report released July 11.
The weather models show this low spinning up early in the forecast period, with the circulation around the low pushing cool and unsettled air southward across the eastern Prairies. In the meantime, the western ridge will bring quiet and warm weather to the western Prairies. In between these two features, in Saskatchewan, there is a big question mark: will the western ridge win out, or will the Hudson Bay upper low triumph?
Alberta
After a fairly active pattern that brought severe thunderstorms to parts of Alberta, thanks to a very unstable weather pattern, it looks like this forecast period will be nice and quiet as a building upper ridge brings plenty of sunshine along with warm mid-summer temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be in the 25 to 28 C range with overnight lows falling to around 15 C. There may be the odd shower early in the forecast period but overall, it looks to be a dry forecast.
Saskatchewan
As I alluded to in the general forecast, Saskatchewan is going to be sandwiched between the building upper ridge to the west and the strengthening upper low to the east. Exactly which will win out is anyone’s guess. Currently the weather models show a bit of mixed bag of weather. Most days should start off sunny with afternoon cloudy periods. Energy rotating around the upper low may trigger the odd shower over the weekend, but it doesn’t look like anything significant. Daytime highs are forecasted to be in the 23 to 26 C range with overnight lows falling into the low teens. Should the upper ridge build eastward more than expected, expect more sunshine and temperatures about 2 to 3 C warmer.
Manitoba
The forecast for Manitoba is not looking that great, but it is not horrible either. The counterclockwise rotation around the Hudson Bay low will pump plenty of cool air southward during this forecast period. This will keep highs in the low to maybe the mid-20s on most days. Expect partly cloudy skies overall, but it does looks like two pieces of energy will rotate around the upper low, bringing clouds and showers.
The first piece of energy looks to drift southeastward late on Thursday and into the early part of Friday bringing with it plenty of clouds and showers. It then looks like it will clear out for most of the day on Friday and Saturday before the next piece of energy rotates south on Sunday. Once again this will bring more clouds than sun, along with a good chance of showers. The weather models then call for it clear out to start the week. Temperatures late in this forecast period will be on the cool side with daytime highs forecasted to be in the low 20s with overnight lows falling into the low teens.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
