(Resource News International) — Canada’s canola crop will likely end up considerably smaller than early expectations, as adverse weather conditions, particularly in Saskatchewan, should leave large areas unseeded. However, just how much area will be left unseeded remains to be seen.
Ron Frost of Agri-Trend Marketing Inc. and Frost Forecasting Corp. in Calgary said seeding progress was wide-ranging across Western Canada, with talk that anywhere from a million acres to as many as five million acres of the intended canola crop will be left unseeded this year.
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Statistics Canada in April pegged 2010 canola area in the country at a record 16.9 million acres. At the time, most analysts were forecasting a higher number still, with some predicting 18 million or more.
However, given the conditions over the past couple of months, Frost said predicting canola acres now was “like tossing darts.”
With no real baseline to work off of, he estimated seeded area could still end up around 17 million acres, but could also be below the 16.2 million acres seeded in 2009. Statistics Canada releases its next acreage report June 23.
“The weather in the next five to seven days will really decide where we end up,” Frost said, noting producers will still make attempts over the next week to get some canola in the ground, though some of those acres may end up in other crops.
“The big question is Saskatchewan,” said Darren Frank, a market analyst at Oakville, Man. with FarmLink Marketing Solutions. He estimated there were still were still 3.5 million to four million acres left to go in the ground in the province, much of that being canola.
Canola acres in Manitoba will likely be 10 per cent below original intentions due to excess moisture, he said, while Alberta acres should end up near original expectations.
“Farmers are pretty resilient and they will push it hard, but we only have another four or five days before we’ll need to call it quits,” said Frank. However, he was unsure if Canadian canola area could end up over 16 million acres.
While Saskatchewan has pushed its crop insurance deadlines back to June 20, Frank said many producers were saying they wouldn’t seed that late due to concerns about frost at harvest time. “Anybody that can go within the next week, they’ll plant canola,” said Frank.
Of the canola already in the ground, three million to four million acres were seeded in less than ideal conditions, raising questions about production down the road, said Frank, although he added that 10 million to 12 million acres were in fairly decent shape.
Wayne Thompson, executive director of the Saskatchewan Canola Growers Association in Saskatoon, did not have a firm number on how many acres would be left unseeded, but said the area facing problems was very large in eastern Saskatchewan.
Producers in some areas could be back on the field with a day or two of sunshine, he said, while others will need a week or more of drier weather.
Thompson expected producers who put on fertilizer last fall will be trying the hardest to get some seed in the ground, not wanting to waste that fertilizer input. Producers with cattle may end up seeding barley instead to use as greenfeed, he added.
With more rain in the forecast “it’s a little tough to be positive,” Thompson said, noting the province’s June 20 crop insurance deadline is looming.
