Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — A pause on tariffs from the United States gave the canola market a boost during the first few trading days of February, although the outlook remains cloudy, and values ran into resistance on Feb. 5.
March canola hit a session high of C$649.70 per tonne on Feb. 4 — its highest level since mid-November — as U.S. tariffs that had been set to go into effect that day were postponed for at least a month.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty hanging over the market,” said Ken Ball of Ventum Financial in Winnipeg, pointing to the lingering tariff threats and uncertain outlook for the U.S. biofuel sector as factors that would be keeping some caution in the futures trade.
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“Chaos, uncertainty and threats of aggression are what Trump does,” said Ball adding that “given the path of destruction that Trump is on … the industry is becoming increasingly concerned that he’ll eradicate the biofuel industry.”
While the traditional supply/demand fundamentals have largely taken a backseat to tariffs and geopolitical issues, the release of Statistics Canada stocks data on Feb. 7 could provide some nearby direction for canola. Ball said the stocks as of Dec. 31 numbers will provide a report card on production and usage data, with both exports and the domestic crush running at a solid pace.
