Glacier FarmMedia – Canola across most of the Prairies appeared to be in good shape during the second last week of June, with very little prospect of a major rally according to a trader.
“Our technical picture looks to be soft, our crop conditions look pretty decent, so we’re suffering from improving fundamentals in crop production expectations,” stated Tony Tryhuk of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg.
“We’re also suffering from a lack of fresh demand. There were no boats on the latest export line to China,” he added.
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Even with Statistics Canada set to issue its acreage estimates on June 27, Tryhuk said the report likely won’t make much of an impact on canola futures. Rather he said any yield forecasts would have a greater influence on the direction canola takes.
The previous StatCan report placed canola acres for 2024/25 at 21.39 million, based on surveys completed by farmers in December.
“We did experience a price rally during the key February to May period that I thought attracted a few more acres. I don’t think it’s going to make a material change,” Tryhuk said, noting he expects only a minor revision to StatCan’s acreage data.
“The critical thing the trade is going to be looking at is going to be yields. That’s going to be the biggest driving factor,” he added.
Tryhuk stated canola in its key growing areas in Alberta and Saskatchewan are in good shape at this point.
“So the yield is certainly robust in this early stage,” he said.
There are some parts of the Prairies that are a little problematic due to wet conditions, with one Tryhuk pointed out being Manitoba’s Interlake region.
