(Resource News International) — Canadian farmers are expected to grow less wheat and durum in 2010-11 according to an early forecast from Bruce Burnett, director of weather and market analysis with the Canadian Wheat Board.
But while production may be down, prices will depend on quality and how the crops fare in other producing regions.
Speaking from Saskatoon, where he was presenting a market outlook at Crop Production Week, Burnett said the CWB was expecting global wheat production to drop to 644 million tonnes in 2010-11. That would compare with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s estimate for 2009-10 production of 676 million tonnes.
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Canada’s share of that global production total is expected to decline to 24 million tonnes, Burnett said, down from 26.5 million in 2009-10. Lower acres and a return to more normal yields would be behind the decline, he said.
From a pricing standpoint, Burnett said, the large spring wheat stocks in the U.S. now overhanging the market are mostly low-protein wheat. As a result, higher-protein wheat is seeing a substantial premium in the market. Any weather issues affecting protein around the world will be important to watch going forward, he said.
Durum wheat acres in Canada should be down by 15-25 per cent in the spring of 2010, Burnett said. Expectations for large carryout supplies, together with competition from other crop options such as pulses and oilseeds, should cut into the durum acres, he said.
Durum-growing areas of Western Canada are currently dry, so reduced acres could be accompanied by lower yields, which would tighten the stock situation, he said. Canada grew 5.4 million tonnes of durum in 2009-10, according to Statistics Canada data.
Export prospects for durum will be determined by weather in the Mediterranean basin, said Burnett. Crops in that region are off to a good start but still have a number of months to go before harvest, he said.
Canadian barley acres should also see a five per cent decline in 2010-11, said Burnett. However, he expected production would remain stable, or increase from the 9.5 million tonnes grown in 2009-10, given a return to average yields.
Canada was currently seeing a little additional demand for malting barley from Southeast Asia, Burnett said, because of poor growing conditions in Australia. However, attention will soon turn to the European crops, and then North America.
On feed barley, Burnett said there should be enough barley available in the European Union and the Black Sea region to satisfy most of the international demand.
Unless there is a major disaster in Ukraine or Europe, Burnett thought any major Canadian feed barley exports were “a long shot.”
