Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Ahead of the United States Department of Agriculture’s next supply and demand report, Terry Reilly of Marex said the trade has been understating the amount of corn and soybeans the U.S. is to produce in 2024/25.
The USDA is scheduled to release its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Oct. 11 at 11 am CDT.
The average trade guess for U.S. corn yield for this year is 183.4 bushels per acres compared to the 183.6 the USDA had last month. Soybean production is expected to be 53.0 bu./ac., down slightly from 53.2 in September.
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“Generally when you have large crops, they tend to get larger,” Reilly commented, noting prices for corn and soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade could ease back.
“If we realize slightly higher production, than the trade averages … we will maybe trend down over the short term a little bit lower,” he said.
Reilly added that “fantastic harvesting weather across the U.S.” contributed to putting more pressure on corn and soybeans in Chicago.
Meanwhile, he said U.S. producers have a great deal of corn and soybeans to sell.
“I think they are holding out for higher prices. The break even margins aren’t there for corn and beans for the moment.”
As for wheat, Reilly suggested the direction it takes would be determined by the USDA cutting its estimated for production in other countries. If wheat-producing countries, such as those in the Black Sea region, harvest less than anticipated that will drive up CBOT values.
He also pointed to tighter exportable supplies of wheat coming out of Russia and Ukraine that could help U.S. wheat prices.
