MarketsFarm — A flurry of reports is coming from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Jan. 12, including its monthly supply and demand estimates, quarterly grains stocks report and winter wheat planting report, among others.
Futures International analyst Terry Reilly said the multitude of the reports coming out that Thursday will essentially be a “data dump,” and that has made it difficult to confidentially calculate estimates on what numbers the USDA could come out with.
“In general, I’m looking for the USDA to make a few minor changes to the output of corn and soybeans,” Reilly said, suggesting both could be cut by one million tonnes each compared to the December supply and demand report.
Read Also
Alberta crop conditions improve: report
Varied precipitation and warm temperatures were generally beneficial for crop development across Alberta during the week ended July 8, according to the latest provincial crop report released July 11.
One of the major items to watch for on Jan. 12 will be USDA’s numbers for Argentina, where drought has again impeded crop production. Reilly said he will be watching for the department to slash five million tonnes from its call on soybean production in Argentina, plus 5.5 million on the country’s corn output.
“If they take the wheat down, it might be a little bit of a surprise,” he said noting the USDA was already at 12.5 million tonnes for Argentina.
For Brazil, Reilly estimated soybean production should be down one million to 1.5 million tonnes, with corn reduced by one million. He pointed at the increase in dry conditions in Brazilian states such as Parana and Rio Grande do Sol for the reductions.
“The USDA is already below CONAB [on soybeans] which is about 153.5 million tonnes,” he said.
When it came to balance sheet for the rest of the world, Reilly pointed to a possible one million-tonne increase to Russian wheat exports at 44 million tonnes.
As for U.S. winter wheat, the analyst said he’s looking for an additional 980,000 acres to have been planted for 2022-23, of which he believes 877,000 will be hard red winter wheat. That would bring his total winter wheat estimate to 34.25 million acres.
However, he acknowledged the delay to planting due to dry conditions throughout much of the winter wheat area in the U.S. may mean USDA’s number could be below his guess.
Eyes need to be kept on outside influences, he added, such as crude oil prices and an ever-looming global recession.
Come Jan. 12, USDA will publish its reports at 11 a.m. CT.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
