(Resource News International) — Feed barley bids in Western Canada have eased slightly from levels seen earlier this month and are likely to continue to trend in a slow downward motion.
“There are periods in which some demand from end-users surface which then cause bids to be pushed up, but once that demand has been covered, values quickly decline just as fast,” said Mike Jubinville, a market analyst with ProFarmer Canada in Winnipeg.
Some feedlots are still stocking up on supplies for the winter, he said, but most have covered at least part of their needs through to the end of December and possibly into January.
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The prices for feed barley are also being determined by the strength in CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) corn futures.
“When those values rally, then there is a trickle-down effect into the western Canadian feed market,” Jubinville said. He cautioned, however, that the upside is limited.
“Essentially, there is no shortage of feed grains in Western Canada, and with the steady supply of dried distillers grain making its way in from the U.S. and the continued downsizing of Canada’s livestock herd, values can only trend downward,” Jubinville said.
The absence of an export market for feed barley also means that the domestic market will continue to be flooded with feed barley as well as higher-grade barley that producers don’t want to deliver to the Canadian Wheat Board due to low exportable values, he said.
Jubinville predicted that feed barley may also be a commodity of the past. “The economics of growing barley in Western Canada just is not there as it once was,” he said.
Producers, he noted, have not seen any major genetics research that has improved barley yields.
“For a lot of crops, yields have systematically improved regularly, but barley has not,” Jubinville said.
Cash bids for feed barley delivered to the elevator in Saskatchewan, as provided by Prairie Ag Hotwire, currently range from $2.20 to $2.71 a bushel, in Manitoba from $2.80 to $2.89 and in Alberta from $2.22 to $3.43.
Cash bids for feed barley delivered to the elevator in Saskatchewan, on Nov. 10 ranged from $2.48 to $2.64 a bushel, in Manitoba from $2.72 to $3.05 and in Alberta from $1.96 to $3.48.
