(Resource News International) –– Weather conditions for the development of grain and oilseed crops in Western Canada will be on the damp side with average temperatures during the key summer period, according to a U.S. forecaster tracking Prairie conditions.
And come fall, a frost is predicted to occur at normal season expectancy.
“We’ll have some brief moments of warmer weather but we’re not likely to see (those conditions) persist either,” said Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc., based in Kansas City.
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“If anything there’s probably a little more support for a cooler bias in some of the western parts of the (Canadian) Prairies.”
Western Canada will experience temperatures that range between 9° and 20°C, the seasonal range, he predicted. The warm temperatures the West experienced in mid-April, allowing some crops to be seeded early and emerge by mid-May, are not expected to return, he said.
Instead, this summer is predicted to be damp, with enough warm weather in between storm cycles to evaporate excess moisture. Western Canada won’t see any more heavy rain, but rather a regular occurrence of showers, he said.
“We expect to see rigidness in the upper atmosphere over the U.S. Midwest… if that indeed occurs, it puts Canada in a position where there would be an abundance of moisture (coming) into the region,” Lerner said.
“We will have some warmer temperatures and the warmer temperatures will help to evaporate moisture so we won’t be as soggy as we are today but we will still see a regular occurrence of showers.”
Lerner predicted the wet weather will persist for about a week before warm temperatures arrive.
Currently, Western Canada is sitting on the north side of the jet stream, locking in cooler temperatures, which Lerner said is not a good thing for producers who have yet to seed their crops.
“For crops that are established it’s going to be (fine), but for those areas that still haven’t planted, it’s not a good thing. We’re going to have rain going well into next week.”
Producers will have to make the most of the sunny days, as Lerner also said the first frost of the fall will likely be closer to normal — meaning September. In the fall of 2009, late-seeded crops were able to develop due to an unusually late first frost, something Lerner cautioned won’t happen this year.
“There is one potential where (the frost) could be late but it’s a big gamble. There would have to be so many tropical cyclones hitting the southeastern U.S. to hold back the cold air into northwestern parts of Canada.”
