“It didn’t do much at all for the market reaction. Some slight adjustments, but overall a nothing burger,” said John Weyer, vice-president of Walsh Commercial Hedging Services in Chicago, Ill.

“To steal a quote from my office manager, they released the report and didn’t tell anyone,” Weyer quipped.

Few changes in U.S. crops

Among the trio of main commodities, there were no changes to U.S. production of soybeans, corn and wheat for the 2025-26 marketing year.

• For daily market updates, visit The Western Producer Markets Desk

As for 2025-26 U.S. exports and ending stocks, the only differences compared to the USDA’s March report were that soybean exports were trimmed to 1.54 billion bushels from 1.58 billion, and the wheat carryover was bumped up to 938 million bushels from 931 million.

Global adjustments

However, Walsh said the change in global ending stocks for wheat did see a five to six cent drop in the North American futures. The carryout rose to 283.12 million tonnes in the April report from 276.96 million last month.

As well, world wheat production for 2025-26 was upped to 844.15 million tonnes, based on increased output for Argentina, the European Union and Russia.

For corn, the USDA kept Argentina and Brazil at 52 million and 132 million tonnes, respectively. Also with soybeans, with Argentina at 48 million tonnes and Brazil held at 180 million.

Crude oil

With such a mundane report, Walsh said crude oil will continue to guide the commodity futures over the next 30 days.

“That’s the driver of the bus right now,” Walsh said.

While recent talk of a ceasefire between U.S. and Israel with Iran generated sharp declines in crude oil and the agricultural commodities, fears of the war escalating pushed prices higher on April 9.

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Feed barley in Lethbridge was selling for C$295 to C$300 per tonne for May and June delivery, up C$5 from two weeks earlier, said Brandon Motz, owner and manager of CorNine Commodities in Lacombe, Alta. He also heard offers of up to C$310/tonne. Meanwhile, feed wheat was selling at C$305 to C$310/tonne.

“There still seems to be some very aggressive bids (for feed barley) from the line companies,” Motz said. “Actual feedlot demand is below average this time of year, but there are a lot of moving factors.”

• For daily market updates, visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

As barley and wheat move through the markets, rising corn prices have weakened demand for the crop.

“Corn is trickling into the market. There is some feeding corn. Corn has always kind of been in the background, but there’s not a lot of volume. Corn prices have rallied up too. So they’ve stayed out of reach,” Motz said.

Rising fuel prices, brought on by the war in Iran, have tightened margins for grain companies and railways, resulting in surcharges and higher freight rates. Motz added that they are affecting growers’ bottom lines as well.

“That’s quite a jump if you didn’t have your spring needs already booked,” he said. “It’s definitely something to be watched and unfortunately not a lot can be done to manage that risk. The bid offer spread has to be adjusted to compensate for fuel prices.”

Where grain prices could go is hard to determine, but Motz believes there will be little movement in the near term.

“It’s safe to assume that prices will remain in this area for the next week at least. There’s nothing to suggest that anything should change,” he said. “But at the same time, this market has been one tweet way from dramatic correction on either side … We need some global shifts to take place before any of the markets come off their highs at this point.”

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported that delivered feed barley prices in Alberta ranged from C$5.01 to C$6.75 per bushel on April 6, steady from the week before. In Saskatchewan, they were also steady, ranging from C$5.12 to C$5.45/bu. In Manitoba, prices were up 25 cents at C$4.77 to C$5/bu.

Feed wheat prices in Alberta were from C$6.18 to C$8.38/bu., down three cents. Manitoba’s feed wheat price was C$6.45, up 13 cents, while Saskatchewan’s was steady at C$7.30/bu.

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“And very mixed in the direction they’re going,” Leclerc added.

She said some in the industry are saying the feedlots are full and feed prices are coming down, while other people indicated prices are largely unchanged.

• For daily market updates, visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

Leclerc said elevator prices are flat as well, but wheat prices have been pointing upward. That should lead to higher prices for feed wheat.

“They’re going to have to eventually buy it at a level where its comparable to where you can sell it elsewhere,” she said.

Feed prices were steady to higher across Western Canada, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

For the week ended April 1, feed barley gained seven cents in Alberta at C$5.01 to C$6.75 per bushel delivered and it added four cents in Manitoba at C$4.60 to C$4.75. Prices in Saskatchewan were unchanged at C$5.12 to C$5.45 bu./del.

As for feed wheat, prices were firmer, with the only increase in Manitoba of five cents at C$6.32 bu./del. Alberta was steady at C$5.97 to C$8.41 bu./del. and Saskatchewan held at C$7.30.

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The USDA also issued its quarterly grain stocks report with stocks for soybeans bigger than anticipated, while those for corn were smaller and wheat virtually matched the average trade guess.

USDA forecasts seeded acres for 2026/27

The USDA predicted corn planting intentions at 95.34 million acres, which is down from 98.79 million acres U.S. farmers seeded last year, but less than the market projection of 94.37 million.

The shift away from corn to soybeans was not as large as the trade believed there was going to be.

“That was the big conversation, how many corn acres there was going to be, especially with the beans this year,” said Ryan Etnner, broker with Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Illinois.

• For daily market updates, visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

The report placed soybean acres at 84.70 million, up from 81.22 million last year, but short of the market projection of 85.55 million.

Ettner said the total wheat acres caught his eye, with how close the USDA was to the trade guess. The department placed its forecast at 43.78 million acres and trade called for 44.79 million. Last year, farmers planted 45.33 million acres of wheat.

Fertilizer issues could be down the road

The broker added that rising fertilizer prices did not have as great an effect on the switch from corn to soybeans. He said most U.S. farmers apply their fertilizer in the fall and what will go on the fields this spring was largely bought before the Middle East war.

“The bigger concern is fall of this year, if things don’t calm down over there by that point,” Ettner said. “Most people are assuming this is a larger 2027 issue if the war is still going on by the fall.”

USDA Planting Intentions (Millions of acres)

1 acre = 0.405 hectares

Grain stocks

As for grain stocks as of March 1, Ettner said there was some pre-report speculation that total corn could be as high as 9.30 billion bushels.

“The quarterly stocks all came in line. The one concern was ‘what if corn had come in bigger?’ and it didn’t,” Ettner said.

He added that corn stocks were going to be very large simply because of the size of the 2025/26 harvest.

USDA Grain Stocks as of March 1 (Billions of bushels)

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Jim Beusekom, president of Market Place Commodities, said feed barley was trading at C$305 to C$310 per tonne in Lethbridge, with feed wheat at a similar range. U.S. corn was trading at C$295 to C$305. He said feed barley and wheat, which were trading at C$270 per tonne at the start of the month, largely followed the upward price movement for U.S. corn futures.

For daily markets coverage, visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

Beusekom added that consistent demand and a “successful” export program for feed barley will continue to support prices over the next six weeks.

“We would expect spring and summer will be a competitive marketplace to purchase from farmers because they’ve been successful in selling their crops so far and they aren’t carrying as much as originally forecasted,” Beusekom said. “A lot of the market direction on barley is definitely still being set by corn and secondly by the exporters.”

Although the war in Iran and the halting of traffic on the Strait of Hormuz have affected energy prices nationwide, Beusekom said it hasn’t affected grain prices yet, but freight rates could change if fuel costs stay elevated. The question of who will take care of those costs is still up in the air.

“There are a lot of input costs that are creeping higher. How do you know if they are factored into those prices? It’s hard to tell,” he added. “For example, on grain that’s (shipped) for export, does the seller pay for it or does the buyer pay for it? For the grain we’re importing, it’s basically the same thing.”

More markets coverage – Klassen: Stronger barley prices weigh on feeder cattle values

As for upcoming spring conditions, Beusekom said parts of southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan are “leaning towards drought”, but they are still subject to change.

“It does seem Western Canada is leaning on the dry side but I want to caution everyone, rain and a snowstorm will alleviate every drought concern,” he said.

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported delivered feed barley prices in Alberta at C$4.79 to C$6.68 per bushel on March 23, up 26 cents from the previous week. In Saskatchewan, the price range was C$4.90 to C$5.45/bu., unchanged from the week before. In Manitoba, prices were from C$4.60 to C$4.71/bu., down two cents.

Delivered feed wheat prices in Alberta were from C$5.97 to C$8.41/bu. for a weekly gain of 35 cents. In Saskatchewan, prices were up 30 cents at C$7 to C$7.30/bu. In Manitoba, the price increased by three cents at C$6.27/bu.

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Soybeans

China has been forecasted to see slightly more soybeans planted in 2026/27, due to government assistance and improved domestic prices.

For 2025/26, the USDA indicated 10.80 million tonnes of soybeans have been purchased by China or are being shipped to the country. Also, the USDA said 2.19 million tonnes are destined for unknown destinations and it’s not yet clear how much of the amount is destined for China. Soybean imports are to increase in 2026/27, but China’s demand is expected to slow over the coming years.

Canola

There’s to be a small increase in canola acres in 2026/27 as China begins expanding its winter canola area to idle land. Its winter canola currently accounts for less than 10 per cent of China’s total canola production.

In February, China removed or reduced the tariffs on its imports of Canadian canola seed and meal. Since then, China has bought 650,000 tonnes of canola from Canada.

Corn

As China continues to boost its domestic corn production, its import program has become more heavily focused on Brazil corn. Two years ago Brazil corn accounted for 47 per cent of China’s imports, followed by the U.S. at 26 per cent and Ukraine at 20 per cent. In 2025/26, Brazil stands at 61 per cent, with Russia at 17 per cent and Myanmar at 11 per cent. Ukraine and the U.S. fell to nine and one per cent, respectively.

Wheat

Although China’s 2026/27 wheat crop was planted later than normal, yields are projected to be a pinch higher than in 2025/26 while harvest area holds. Guaranteed returns have encouraged farmers to maintain 2025/26 levels. Reduced ending stocks in 2025/26 are to lead to a further decline in 2026/27.

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“The markets (in 2022) were telling farmers to plant every acre that they could,” Lilja said. “The Russian-Ukraine war has been in a heavy agricultural producing area.”

“That spring, we were just coming off of a South American drought. Supplies of soybeans, corn and wheat were historically on the low side,” he added, noting there were a number of limit up days in the commodities, especially for wheat.

Today, Lilja said the situation is different, despite the hikes in soybeans, corn and wheat. There hasn’t been any limit up days.

“You can argue the view from South America right now, they have come off record yields,” he said.

Get daily market updates at the Western Producer Markets Desk

For 2025/26 soybeans, Brazil is on its way to another record harvest that’s to be about 180 million tonnes, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. Plus, Brazil is to have strong corn yields that are to produce a crop of around 132 million tonnes. Also, Argentina had a record wheat harvest of about 27.8 million tonnes.

As well, Iran isn’t as a major wheat producer that Russia and Ukraine are. Lilja said the latter two countries combined will provide about 108 million tonnes of wheat, while Iran’s production is maybe one-tenth of that.

Added to that, the U.S. situation is much different between 2022 and 2026. Lilja said U.S. wheat ending stocks four years ago were in a range of 570 million to 670 million bushels. The USDA has forecasted the 2025/26 carryover at 931 million bushels.

“We just haven’t seen the huge price spike that we saw back in February and March of 2022,” he said, but stressed the commodities are still following the increases in crude oil.

“The night crude oil spiked up (March 15-16) was the recent highs for U.S. soybeans, corn and wheat,” he continued.

The post CBOT Weekly: Gains in commodities amidst Iran conflict differ from Ukraine war appeared first on Country Guide.

AAFC cautioned that the conflict in Iran “has heightened geopolitical tensions and market volatility,” and noted that planting decisions could be altered while “the report is based on information and trade policies in effect as of March 11, 2026.”

Canola

• Projected canola ending stocks for 2025-26 were left unchanged at 2.76 million tonnes, while the 2026-27 forecast was cut by 200,000 tonnes from February at 1.46 million tonnes.

• Given average yields, AAFC forecast Canadian canola production in 2026-27 at 19.20 million tonnes, which was unchanged from the February estimate and down from the 21.80 million tonnes grown in 2025-26.

Wheat

• New crop wheat ending stocks were raised to 5.75 million tonnes from 5.70 million in February, while the 2025-26 wheat carryout held at 7.35 million tonnes.

• AAFC raised its call on wheat production to 35.01 million tonnes, from 34.98 million the previous month. That would still be well below the 39.96 million tonnes harvested in 2025-26.

Pulses

• Other notable revisions included slight increases in pea and lentil production estimates, with ending stocks of the two pulses also up by 100,000 tonnes each from the previous forecast.

• The pea carryout for 2026-27 was raised to 945,000 tonnes from 845,000 tonnes in February, while lentils were forecast at 1.67 million from 1.57 million tonnes.

• Pea ending stocks for the current marketing year are estimated at 1.31 million tonnes with lentils at 1.695 million tonnes.

Soybeans/Corn

• Corn ending stocks for both 2025-26 and 2026-27 were left at 2.00 million tonnes.

• Soybean carryout for 2026-27 was cut by 50,000 tonnes from February, at 693,000 tonnes, which compares with 443,000 for the current marketing year.

March estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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CWRS

Average Canada Western Red Spring (13.5 per cent) wheat prices were up by C$1.40 to down by C$2.70 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices ranged from C$260.10/tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to as high as C$288.10/tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from $31.60 to $59.60/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting everything into Canadian dollars (C$1=US$0.7300) CWRS basis levels ranged from C$13.30 to C$28.20 below the futures.

CPSR

Canada Prairie Spring Red (CPSR) wheat bids were also mixed, down C$1.30 to up C$1.80 per tonne, with prices ranging from C$238.20 to C$262.30 per tonne.

Durum

Average durum prices were softer, down $1.30 to C$3.20 per tonne. Durum prices ranged from C$277.10 to C$293.20 per tonne.

Futures

MIAX spring wheat futures lost 10.75 cents per bushel in the May contract to settle at US$6.2425/bu. on March 17.

Hard red winter wheat futures were down by two cents in the May contract on the week at US$6.0675/bu.

The May Chicago soft wheat contract lost 1.25 cents at US$5.8975/bu.

The Canadian dollar was down by nearly three-quarters of a cent relative to its U.S. counterpart at 73.00 U.S. cents on March 17.

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WHY IT MATTERS: Egypt is a major wheat importer and its purchases affect world prices

Egypt is one of the world’s largest importers of the cereal, relying heavily on those from Russia, Ukraine and the European Union. The USDA attaché forecast Egyptian wheat imports for 2026/27 at 12.50 million tonnes, down 200,000 from the year before. That’s due to the Cairo desk having projected Egypt’s wheat output increasing by 600,000 tonnes at 9.80 million.

The attaché said harvested wheat area expanded by 170,000 hectares at 1.50 million in 2026/27 because of higher domestic prices. However, for that crop year, projected Egyptian wheat yields were to fall to 6.53 tonnes per hectare from 6.92.

There’s to be a jump in Egypt’s total supply in 2026/27, at 26.07 million tonnes versus 24.77 million in 2025/26.

For daily markets news and updates visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

Although a major importer of wheat, Egypt is also an important exporter of wheat flour, especially to several African and Middle East countries. Exports in 2026/27 are expected to improve by 200,000 tonnes at 1.20 million tonnes.

The country’s wheat ending stocks are forecast to increase to 4.57 million tonnes from 3.77 million in 2025/26.

As for other crops, the Cairo desk said Egypt is expected to grow more corn with production bumping up to seven million tonnes in 2026/27, with imports also edging up to 10.50 million. There’s to be a small uptick in ending stocks at 1.79 million tonnes.

The attaché projected Egyptian milled and rough rice production to remain at 4.20 million and 6.09 million tonnes, respectively in 2026/27. The rice carryover is set to increase to 671,000 tonnes from 491,000 in 2025/26.

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