The planted area for U.S. corn in 2024 was determined to be 91.5 million acres, greater than the March USDA estimate of 90.04 million as well as the trade’s average guess of 90.35 million. However, the figure was nowhere close to last year’s acreage total of 94.64 million. After the release of the report, corn prices at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) reacted bearishly with contracts losing more than 20 U.S. cents per bushel.

Soybean acres in the U.S. were slightly lower than the trade’s guess, coming out as 86.1 million. The figure was 653,000 less than the trade’s average guess and 410,000 less that the USDA’s March estimate. In 2023-24, 83.6 million acres of soybeans were planted in the U.S. Soybean prices were slightly bullish at the CBOT after the report’s release.

Total U.S. wheat acres declined from both the USDA’s March estimate and the trade’s average pre-report estimate. In total, 47.2 million acres of wheat were seeded, down 457,000 from the average trade guess and down 298,000 from the USDA’s March estimate. Last year, 49.58 million wheat acres were seeded.

Winter wheat plantings were 33.81 million acres, down from the USDA’s March estimate of 34.14 million, the trade’s average estimate of 34.2 million and last year’s total of 36.7 million.

U.S. spring wheat acres totaled 11.27 million for 2024, down from the trade’s average estimate and the USDA’s March estimate, both at 11.34 million. In 2023, farmers planted 11.2 million acres.

Durum wheat acres were counted at 2.17 million acres, well above the two-million acre average trade guess and the 2.03 million acres estimated by the USDA in March. Last year, 1.68 million acres of U.S. durum were planted. U.S. wheat futures acted bearish following the report’s release.

U.S. grain stocks as of June 1 were higher than expected for all three major crops. The country had 4.993 billion bushels of corn on hand, 120 million above the average pre-report trade estimate and 890 million more than the year before.

Soybean stocks were 970 million bushels, eight million above the pre-report trade average and up 174 million from last year’s total.

Wheat stocks totaled 702 million bushels, up 18 million from the trade’s average guess and up 132 million from one year earlier. For durum wheat, the U.S. had 21.08 million bushels of supply, down from 27.75 million on June 1, 2023.

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“Technically, it was getting into oversold territory,” said Tom Lilja of Progressive Ag in Fargo, North Dakota, on the corrective bounce in spring wheat futures. He added that the market had likely overreacted to the higher-than-expected spring wheat acres in the United States Department of Agriculture’s prospective plantings report released last week.

U.S. spring wheat seedings were forecast to hit 11.335 million acres in 2024, which would be up slightly from 11.200 million acres the previous year. Durum area was forecast to rise by 21 per cent, at 2.028 million acres. However, winter wheat area was down by seven per cent.

“The good news in the report was that all wheat acres, including winter wheat, were down by 2.1 million (acres) from last year,” said Lilja.

May spring wheat hit a three-year low for a front-month contract of US$6.2525 per bushel in overnight trade before uncovering support to settle 14 cents off that low on April 3.

Chicago and Kansas City winter wheat contracts are still holding well above their lows from late-November, which Lilja said was somewhat supportive for the Minneapolis futures. However, that may not mean higher prices, but rather a narrowing of the spread between spring wheat and the winter wheats.

The acreage report was supportive for corn futures, with tighter quarterly stocks also underpinning that market. As a result, Lilja expected corn would trend sideways to higher over the spring planting season.

For soybeans, ideas that Chinese imports may not live up to earlier expectations were overhanging the market. However, Lilja noted that the likelihood of increased volatility through spring planting could lead to choppiness in the futures.

—Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg

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Wheat and barley production for 2023/24 was significantly lower than the very large crops of the previous marketing year. For wheat, the attaché estimated Australian output for this year at 25.5 million tonnes, down from the record 40.55 million in 2022/23 which was fueled by ample rainfall. Barley came in at 10.50 million tonnes having dropped from the near record harvest of 14.14 million.

When wheat and barley are compared to their 10-year averages, of 26.5 million tonnes and 11.2 million respectively, their 2023/24 harvests were favourable, the attaché stated.

There was a small decline in harvested wheat area, the attaché noted, with 12.5 million hectares in 2023/24 compared to the 13.05 million the year before. Yields fell by more than a tonne per hectare, from 3.11 last year to only 2.04.

With a smaller wheat harvest came reduced exports, the Canberra desk reported 31.82 million tonnes in 2022/23 versus 19 million this year. Total consumption remained at eight million tonnes and ending stocks dropped from 4.37 million tonnes to 3.07 million.

The attaché noted harvested area for barley bumped up to 4.20 million hectares from the 4.13 million sown in 2022/23 but yields fell back from 3.43 t/ha. to 2.5 in 2023/24.

Marketing year exports were down as well, from 7.77 million tonnes to six million in 2023/24, but total consumption remained at six million tonnes. That saw ending stocks shrink from 3.22 million tonnes in 2022/23 to 1.72 million.

China continued figure prominently when it came to wheat and barely exports from Australia, with the attaché noting the latter has often faced stiff competition from Canada.

Of Australia’s total wheat exports, the percentage heading to China has risen from nine to 24 per cent over the last three years.

Barley witnessed a turnaround in exports, as China lifted its three-year-old ban on the Australian crop. Outbound shipments to China resumed in August 2023, with a surge in exports during September and October. In that short timeframe, China became Australia’s number three barley customer.

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AAFC included its first estimates for the 2024/25 marketing year in its January supply/demand report, released Jan. 22.

All wheat area was forecast to dip by 1.9 per cent, at 26.50 million acres, as a 2.9 per cent decline in non-durum wheat should more than counter an expected 1.4 per cent increase in durum to 6.12 million acres.

Barley area was forecast to slip by 4.8 per cent on the year, at 6.97 million acres, while area seeded to oats was projected to see the largest change on the year – rising by 27.1 per cent to 3.21 million acres.

AAFC called for a 1.5 per cent decline in canola area, at 21.75 million acres, with flaxseed dropping by 19.0 per cent to 494,000 acres. Meanwhile, soybeans should hold steady at 5.64 million acres.

The major pulse crops were all expected to see increased area this spring, with both peas and lentils forecast to rise by 5.4 per cent at 3.21 million and 3.95 million acres respectively. Chickpea area was forecast at 371,000 acres, which would be up by 7.7 per cent on the year.

Statistics Canada releases its first official seeded area estimates for the upcoming growing season on March 11.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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Corn eased after USDA released a flood of data Friday, some of it delayed by the recent government shutdown, showing plentiful supplies and lighter U.S. domestic demand, and large upcoming harvests in South America.

Wheat was mostly higher, supported by USDA’s estimate of the lowest U.S. winter wheat acreage in more than a century and improving U.S. export prospects.

Given the lack of major surprises in the USDA data, grain markets struggled to break out of recent trading ranges. Traders remained cautious amid uncertainty over a U.S. trade deal with China and moderating crop weather in Brazil and Argentina.

“We’re right to be back to watching progress on trade talks and South American weather,” said Terry Reilly, senior commodities analyst with Futures International.

Thursday’s news that U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping are unlikely to meet before a March 1 negotiating deadline, when U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are set to rise, dampened hopes of a breakthrough in trade talks.

The two sides will hold talks in Beijing next week, with deputy-level meetings to start on Monday and high-level talks to follow, a White House spokeswoman said on Friday.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March soybeans ended 1-1/4 cents higher at $9.14-1/2 a bushel, but were down 0.2 per cent in the week (all figures US$). It was the market’s second straight weekly drop.

March corn was 2-1/4 cents lower at $3.74-1/4 a bushel. The 1.1 per cent weekly decline was the market’s third straight weekly loss.

CBOT March wheat was up four cents at $5.17-1/4 a bushel but 1.3 per cent lower in the week after a steep decline in the prior session.

USDA projected U.S. winter wheat acres at the lowest in 110 years following years of expanding global production.

Wheat futures also drew some support from improving export demand after top importer Egypt bought two cargoes of U.S. soft red winter wheat in a snap tender.

— Karl Plume reports on agriculture and ag commodities for Reuters from Chicago; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

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“It was a disadvantage with the winter and with the weather conditions this summer it’s been pretty dry… so between the two, it’s kind of reduced yields,” said Doug Martin, chairman of Winter Cereals Manitoba.

Martin has heard reports of yields varying between 40 and 70 bushels per acre, depending on the area. Manitoba Agriculture’s weekly crop report, released Monday, said winter wheat yields were at 30 to 80 bushels per acre, though in the southwest corner of the province yields were reported as average.

The year wasn’t the best for winter wheat. Last fall, dry conditions led to fewer acres being sown. According to Statistics Canada, 1.396 million acres of winter wheat were seeded. The subsequent winter saw little snow, with no coverage for fields in some parts of the province. Spring saw a lot of freezing and then thawing temperatures which weren’t good for winter wheat development.

“It was patchy… most of Manitoba, eastern Manitoba, has been pretty dry. So there wasn’t a lot of moisture to (help the crop),” Martin said.

While yields might not be the best, the market should be good for selling the winter wheat crop, as wheat prices have been on the rise lately. Drought conditions in Europe and Australia are leading to production concerns globally.

Most winter wheat usually ends up on the feed market, according to Martin. With dry conditions, feed grain prices are also on the rise.

According to a feed grain buyer in Alberta, there will be feed barley shortages this year, meaning feedlots will need alternatives for livestock feed.

“I’m assuming that the feed market will be fairly robust this year with the heat and dry conditions… they will be reduced yields, especially barley will be greatly affected by that,” Martin said.

Martin is optimistic that there will be more acres of winter wheat sown this fall — but only if conditions are right.

“Hopefully crops come off early and farmers will think about seeding some winter wheat this year. I think they will be lots of time before the deadlines to seed winter wheat this year. And hopefully some rain comes.”

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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Spring wheat production in the country, not including durum, is forecast at 614 million bushels, up 48 per cent from 2017. Of that, 584 million bushels, or 95 per cent of production, is expected to come in hard red spring wheat.

Spring wheat harvested area is expected to increase to 12.9 million acres, unchanged from June’s acreage report, but that’s still 27 per cent higher than last year.

NASS estimates this year’s spring wheat yield to come in at a record high at 47.6 bushels per acre, an increase of 6.6 bu./ac. from last year.

Durum production is estimated to reach 74.9 million bu. this year, a 36 per cent increase from 2017. The forecast predicts yields at 40.7 bu./ac., up 15 from last year. Total harvested acreage for durum is estimated at 1.84 million acres, 14 per cent less than 2017, but unchanged from the June estimates.

Meanwhile, U.S. winter wheat production is expected to remain relatively stable at 1.19 billion bu., down six per cent from last year and one per cent from the June forecast. The report estimates yield at 48 bu./ac. down 2.2 bu. from last year’s average yield of 50.2.

NASS estimates total winter wheat acres to be harvested this year at 24.8 million acres, down two per cent from last year’s.

Hard red winter wheat production is estimated at 657 million bu., soft red winter wheat at 303 million bu. and white winter wheat at 232 million bu.

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Canola plantings reached 22.7 million acres, shy of last year’s 23 million, but exceeding the average trade guess of 22.4 million acres. In spring, Statscan estimated that farmers intended to plant 21.4 million.

Farmers tend to lowball their planting intentions in the spring, and a trade war between the U.S. and China affecting U.S. soybean exports may also be in the back of growers’ minders, said Dave Reimann, market analyst at Cargill.

Some suspect that China could import more canola and crush it for meal in pig feed as a substitute for soymeal, which would support canola prices.

ICE Futures Canada November canola futures turned slightly negative after the report, sliding 90 cents, to $509.50 per tonne.

Statscan pegged all-wheat area at 24.7 million acres, up from last year’s 22.4 million and in line with the average trade expectation of 24.8 million acres. They had expected in the spring to sow 25.3 million acres.

“Nothing too shocking,” Reimann said, adding that a small reduction in wheat plantings from the spring estimate is unlikely to boost prices, given ample global stockpiles.

Canada is one of the world’s largest wheat exporters and the biggest shipper of canola, a cousin of rapeseed used largely to produce vegetable oil.

— Reporting for Reuters by Rod Nickel in St. Paul, Minn. and Dale Smith in Ottawa.

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The government agency pegged wheat carryout for the upcoming 2018-19 marketing year at 955 million bushels, about 30 million above average trade guesses. Total wheat production in the country is forecast at 1.821 billion bushels, which would be up from the 1.741 billion grown the previous year.

Tom Lilja of Progressive Ag in Fargo, N.D., said the bigger-than-expected ending stocks were somewhat bearish, as they came despite the ongoing production issues in the hard red winter wheat belt in the southern Plains.

Dryness in many major wheat-growing areas, including Kansas, western North Dakota, southern Russia and Australia had propped up wheat recently, he added, but “each of those areas is now forecast to get rain (in) the six- to 10-day forecasts.”

Looking at spring wheat, Lilja said the Minneapolis futures would need to close above $6.40 per bushel in the front month before an overall downtrend in place since last summer would be broken (all figures US$). On the other side, support comes in at $6.

“Overall, it will really come down to June rains,” said Lilja. “If we get those June rains, then those $6 support levels are in jeopardy… If we miss out, and if Kansas misses out on some of these rains, and Russia misses out on some of these rains, we could make a run at these $6.40 levels.”

Seeding is running behind normal in the key U.S. spring wheat-growing regions, and Lilja expected the late and wet spring could see preventative-plant acres increase, when all is said and done, at the expense of some intended wheat acres.

USDA, in its report, forecast Canadian wheat production for 2018-19 at 32.5 million tonnes, well above the 30 million grown in 2017-18.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“Southern Alberta is a little bit later than normal (for starting seeding). But most areas, they’re kind of rolling on time. I haven’t really heard of any extra barley going (in),” said Allen Pirness of Market Place Commodities at Lethbridge.

As the long, cold winter dragged on, there had been some reports that producers were thinking of switching acres to plant shorter-season crops.

Statistics Canada released its principal field crop areas report on April 27. The report predicted an increase in barley acres to 6.1 million acres from 5.8 million last year. Spring wheat acres are also predicted to see a boost to 18.2 million from 15.8 million last year. The survey was completed in March.

“The moisture conditions changed a lot in that month. So I think there’s probably going to be some switches from that report,” Pirness said, adding that depending on seeding delays, there could be a larger increase for barley acres than Statistics Canada has predicted.

An increase in barley and wheat acres could produce a larger supply of feed grains next year and bring down prices. Over the winter, feed grain prices have been steady, due to a tight supply.

For the week ended Thursday, feed grain prices have held steady for Feedlot Alley in Lethbridge. According to Pirness, feed barley is at $257 per tonne, feed wheat at $255 per tonne and corn at $260 per tonne.

“Demand has (been) staying about the same, nothing really changing yet. And with the rail strike averted for now, the corn is (being shipped) so there’s no real extra pressure on the market,” Pirness said.

In April, localized flooding did cause some problems for shipping feed grains, but the flooding has started to subside. Spring road bans are still causing some shipping issues.

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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