WHY IT MATTERS: Analysts said the April 5 attack on the ship added to risks to global food security and agricultural trade stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

Russian media said the vessel was carrying wheat from the Port of Azov, near the city of Rostov, to Port Kavkaz in the strait separating the Crimean peninsula from mainland Russia, where the grain is usually loaded onto larger vessels for export.

TASS quoted emergency services as saying the vessel, which was gutted by fire and began to sink, was towed to the village of Kuchugury in Russia’s Krasnodar region. A video posted by the news agency showed the vessel engulfed in flames and smoke. The agency said two badly burned bodies were found aboard the ship, bringing the death toll to three. An aide to the vessel’s captain had earlier been reported dead.

Public ship databases list Volgo-Balt 138-class vessels at about 3,165 tons deadweight.

Grain consultancy Sovecon earlier described the incident as the first known sinking of a grain-loaded ship in the Black Sea-Azov basin, a major grain-trading route, since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022.

“Against the backdrop of Iran’s conflict and the effective paralysis of diplomacy among Washington, Moscow and Kyiv, the risk of further escalation in the region appears to have increased significantly,” Sovecon head Andrey Sizov said.

The post Russian grain ship believed sunk in Ukrainian drone attack found, towed to shore, TASS says appeared first on Country Guide.

Ukraine is a major European producer and exporter of wheat.

Since the end of last year, Russia has sharply intensified its attacks on Ukrainian ports, with not only port terminals and warehouses coming under fire, but also civilian vessels.

UGA said that Ukraine had exported 292,000 metric tons of wheat in the first half of January versus 293,000 tons in the same period in December and against 610,000 tons in November 1-15.

The economy ministry said wheat exports totalled 8.2 million tons so far in the 2025/26 July-June season compared with 10.3 million tons in the same period in 2024/25.

Analysts and producers say that low demand for Ukrainian wheat due to global trends and competition from cheaper Russian wheat is one of the reasons for low shipments.

Analyst Barva Invest said on Telegram messenger that “insufficient interest from importers” limited the sales.

Corn export rates rise

But despite military risks, Ukraine maintains high corn export rates, with shipments increasing to 1.2 million tons in January 1-15 from 1.06 million tons in December 1-15 and 822,000 in the first half of November, UGA noted.

Barva Invest said that the corn market “remains one of the most liquid and shows significant activity on the part of both farmers and exporters”.

Ukraine exported 7.07 million tons of corn so far in 2025/26 against 11.15 million tons in 2024/25.

— Reporting by Pavel Polityuk

The post Ukraine wheat exports remain low amid Russian attacks on ports, weak demand appeared first on Country Guide.

But beyond the news about grain blockades lies a deeper, slower-moving crisis: the depletion of the very nutrients that make Ukraine’s fertile black soil so productive.

While the ongoing war has focused global attention on Ukraine’s food supply chains, far less is known about the sustainability of the agricultural systems that underpin them.

Ukraine’s soil may no longer be able to sustain the country’s role as one of the major food producers without urgent action. And this could have consequences that stretch far beyond its borders.

In our research, we have examined nutrient management in Ukrainian agriculture over the past 40 years and found a dramatic reversal of nutrient levels.

Pre-war: showing signs of strain

During the Soviet era, Ukraine’s farmland was excessively fertilized. Nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium were applied at levels far beyond what crops could absorb. This led to pollution of the air and water.

But since independence in 1991, the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction. Fertilizer use, especially phosphorus and potassium, plummeted as imports fell, livestock numbers declined (reducing manure availability) and supply chains collapsed.

By 2021, just before the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian soil was already showing signs of strain. Farmers were adding much less phosphorus and potassium than the crops were taking up, around 40–50 per cent less phosphorus and 25 per cent less potassium, and the soil’s organic matter had dropped by almost nine per cent since independence.

In many regions, farmers applied too much nitrogen, but often too little phosphorus and potassium to maintain long-term fertility. Moreover, although livestock numbers have declined significantly over the past decades, our analysis shows that about 90 per cent of the manure still produced is wasted. This is equivalent to roughly US$2.2 billion (C$3.01 billion) in fertilizer value each year.

These nutrient imbalances are not just a national issue. They threaten Ukraine’s long-term agricultural productivity and, by extension, the global food supply that depends on it.

The war has sharply intensified the problem. Russia’s invasion has disrupted fertilizer supply chains and damaged storage facilities. Fertilizer prices have soared. Many farmers deliberately applied less fertilizer in 2022-2023 to reduce financial risks, knowing that their harvests could be destroyed, stolen or left unsold due to blocked export routes.

Our new research shows alarming trends across the country. In 2023, harvested crops took up to 30 per cent more nitrogen, 80 per cent more phosphorus and 70 per cent more potassium from the soil than they received through fertilization, soil microbes and from the air (including what comes down in rain and what settles onto the ground from the air).

If these trends continue, Ukraine’s famously fertile soil could face lasting degradation, threatening the country’s capacity to recover and supply global food markets once peace returns.

Rebuilding soil fertility

Some solutions exist and many are feasible even during wartime. Our research team has developed a plan for Ukrainian farmers that could quickly make a difference. These measures could substantially improve nutrient use efficiency and reduce wasted nutrients, keeping farms productive and profitable, while reducing soil degradation and environmental pollution.

• These proposed solutions include:
• Precision fertilization – applying fertilizers at the right time, place and amount to match crop needs efficiently
• Enhanced manure use – setting up local systems to collect surplus manure and redistribute it to other farms, reducing dependence on (imported) synthetic fertilizers
• Improved fertilizer use – applying enhanced-efficiency fertilizers that release nutrients slowly, reducing losses to air and water
• Planting legumes (such as peas or soybeans) – including these in crop rotations, improves soil health while adding nitrogen naturally

Some of these actions require investment, such as better facilities for storage, treatment and better application of manure to fields, but many can be rolled out, at least partially, without too much extra funding.

Ukraine’s recovery fund, backed by the World Bank to help Ukraine after the war ends, includes support for agriculture, and this could play a key role here.

Why it matters beyond Ukraine

Ukraine’s nutrient crisis is a warning for the world. Intensive, unbalanced farming, whether through overuse, under use or misuse of fertilizers, is unsustainable. Nutrient mismanagement contributes to both food insecurity and environmental pollution.

Our research is part of the forthcoming International Nitrogen Assessment, which highlights the need for effective global nitrogen management and showcases practical options to maximise the multiple benefits of better nitrogen use – improved food security, climate resilience, and water and air quality.

In the rush to ensure cheap food and stable exports, we must not overlook the foundations of long-term agricultural productivity: healthy, fertile soils.

Supporting Ukraine’s farmers offers a chance not only to rebuild a nation but also to change global agriculture to help create a more resilient, sustainable future.

—Mark Sutton is a honourary professor in the University of Edinburgh’s School of Geosciences. Sergiy Medinets is a biogeochemist at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology.

The post Ukraine’s farms once fed billions but now its soil is starving appeared first on Country Guide.

Ukraine is a major global wheat grower and exporter, shipping about 70 per cent of its wheat harvest for export via the country’s Black Sea ports. Food exports account for the majority of Ukraine’s total exports.

Russia has increased attacks on the port hub in the southern Odesa region this month, leaving about a million households without power after one of the attacks.

UAC said in its weekly report that Ukraine had exported 359,150 metric tons of wheat by mid-December, out of 1 million tons contracted for export for the month.

The union said that some export terminals have halted operations and the port is operating at 20 per cent of capacity.

“We see that for the second week in a row, one of the central ports has been unable to start up and operate normally,” UAC said.

“Traders have no idea what to do. It’s dangerous to store grain at the port, and logistics are not working properly – there are constant power outages and constant disruptions with locomotives.”

Ukrainian state railway Ukrzaliznytsia said last week that Russia had attacked the port of Pivdennyi in Odesa region as well as the rail infrastructure that delivers cargo to the port.

Analyst Barva Invest said this month that Ukraine’s maritime export terminals had reduced grain intake owing to constant Russian attacks.

Ukraine’s economy ministry said last week that the country’s wheat exports had fallen to 7.5 million tons so far in the 2025/26 July-June season, against 9.2 million tons for the same period of the previous season.

The ministry also said that Ukraine would not restrict wheat exports in 2025/26 because of a large harvest and low export rates at the beginning of the season.

The post Ukrainian grain exports curtailed by Russian attacks, union says appeared first on Country Guide.

Why it matters: Canadian canola could see increased European demand if more Ukrainian rapeseed is processed domestically instead of making its way into export channels.

Ukraine is the world’s leading exporter of sunflower oil, but production may decline significantly in the 2025/26 season as drought and high temperatures in the southern regions of the country have significantly reduced the sunflower harvest.

ASAP Agri analyst Victoria Blazhko told the Latifundist agricultural website that Ukraine’s 2025 sunflower seed harvest could total 10.4 million tonnes from about 12 million tonnes in 2024.

The consultancy has consistently lowered its harvest forecast to 10.4 million tonnes from 10.8 million tonnes and 11.4 million tonnes due to deteriorating weather conditions.

Blazhko said Ukraine has the capacity to process at least 20 million tonnes of oilseeds a year, and with the low sunseed crop, companies have started processing soybeans and rapeseed. Exports of soybeans and rapeseed were effectively halted at the start of the season due to the introduction of a 10 per cent export duty.

She said that rapeseed processing was likely to reach a record 1.4 million tonnes compared to 490,000 tonnes last season, while soybean processing was expected to rise to three million tonnes from 2.8 million tonnes.

“Domestic processing is increasingly replacing exports, and the balance in the market is shifting in favour of processing factories,” Blazhko said.

In previous seasons, Ukraine has exported most of its rapeseed and soybean harvest.

Analyst APK-Inform said last month Ukrainian sunflower oil output could decrease to 5.13 million tonnes in 2025/26 from 5.24 million tonnes in 2024/25 and 6.63 million tonnes in 2023/24.

APK-Inform also said Ukrainian soybean exports could fall to 2.43 million tonnes in 2025/26 from 4.16 million tonnes in 2024/25, while exports of rapeseed may fall to 2.35 million tonnes from 3.14 million tonnes in 2024/25.

— Reporting by Pavel Polityuk

The post Ukraine increases rapeseed, soybeans processing as sunflower crop falls, analyst says appeared first on Country Guide.

WHY IT MATTERS: Ukraine is one of Europe’s leading corn growers and exporters.

This year, harvesting was significantly delayed by rains in most regions, and the harvested corn was saturated and required additional drying.

Ukraine expects to harvest at least 30 million metric tons of corn in 2025.

UAC’s weekly report said Ukraine had exported 1.3 million tons of corn so far in November against 2.5 million tons in November 2024.

Traders say they plan to export 1.85 million tons of corn in December versus 2.6 million tons in the same month last year.

“There was a problem harvesting, then there was a problem drying, and now there is a problem transporting the corn to the ports,” UAC said.

The union said that ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian railways, locomotives and power substations had led to a shortage of locomotives and significantly lengthened the time it takes to deliver corn to ports.

It said grain delivery times to seaports from central Ukrainian regions had increased several times to up to six weeks.

Ukraine’s economy ministry said on Tuesday the country had exported a total of 3.12 million tons of corn so far for 2025/26 against almost 7 million tons a season earlier.

The post Wet grain, Russian attacks on railways hit Ukrainian corn exports, union says appeared first on Country Guide.

Ukraine, one of the world’s leading wheat producers and exporters, has been restricting wheat exports over the past few seasons to prevent a rise in bread prices.

WHY IT MATTERS: This year has seen large global wheat harvests, which has put downward pressure on prices.

“We do not plan to impose any restrictions on wheat exports this season. The harvest is higher than last year, and export rates are lower,” said Taras Vysotskiy.

“According to our estimates, the wheat harvest will be around 23 million (metric) tons, and exports are expected to reach around 17 million tons (in the 2025/26 season),” he said.

Ukraine harvested 22.6 million tons of wheat in 2024 and exported 15.7 million tons of the commodity in 2024/25.

The economy ministry data showed that the country had exported 6.8 million tons of wheat so far this season versus 8.6 million at the same period a season earlier.

The post Ukraine will not limit wheat exports in 2025/26, says deputy minister appeared first on Country Guide.

The ministry said the area planted with winter wheat could rise to 4.78 million hectares from 4.5 million in 2025. Winter wheat accounts for more than 95 per cent of the total wheat harvest in Ukraine, a major global supplier of the grain.

Most of Ukraine’s remaining winter grains area is planted with barley and rye.

Despite plans for a bigger sowing area, analyst ASAP Agri said progress is lagging last year’s pace, when 101,100 hectares had already been planted by the same date.

Most of the sowing carried out so far has been in western and northern regions, while activity in the south and east has been constrained by poor soil moisture.

Rains in late August provided some relief in central and southern regions, briefly improving planting conditions, ASAP Agri said.

However, deep soil moisture remains critically low across much of the steppe zone and early September forecasts see scant rainfall continuing and above-average temperatures, weighing on winter grain sowing and rapeseed emergence.

— Reporting by Pavel Polityuk

The post Ukraine sees bigger 2026 winter grain area despite slow start to sowing appeared first on Country Guide.

Why it matters: Ukrainian rapeseed competes with Canadian canola into European markets.

Ukraine is a major exporter of rapeseed and soybeans, mostly to European countries. The duty might create short-term price volatility, although traders expect the government to intervene before there are longer-term implications.

The Ukrainian parliament passed a bill in July imposing the duty on exports of the two oilseed crops with the aim of increasing domestic processing volumes and boosting revenue for a state budget strained by the war with Russia.

Ukraine’s grain traders union, UGA, and the UAC opposed the decision, saying the duty could simply reduce purchase prices on the domestic market, hitting farmers’ incomes.

The government has not commented on the situation.

However, analysts say the duty is unlikely to lead to significant export reductions.

On Monday, consultancy APK-Inform said it still forecasts soybean export shipments, which have not yet begun, at 2.6 million to 2.7 million tonnes. The rapeseed export forecast has also remained virtually unchanged at 2.4 million to 2.5 million tonnes.

UAC said the country exported about 640,000 tonnes of rapeseed from July to early September.

It noted that at least 400,000 tonnes of rapeseed were contracted for export this month and around 200,000 tonnes for October.

Ukraine has completed the 2025 rapeseed harvest, threshing 3.25 million tonnes.

“As of September 5, exports have been completely halted. With a 10 per cent duty, it is possible (to export), but ships are waiting in ports because the shipments contain mixed products from both producers and traders,” UAC said in a statement.

Exports are not subject to duty if the farmer sells their own rapeseed and soybean products.

“The problem lies in the lack of a clear procedure for documenting the origin of products grown by agricultural producers or cooperatives themselves,” the union said.

The post Confusion over documents halts Ukrainian rapeseed, soybeans exports, union says appeared first on Country Guide.

Why it matters: Ukraine is a major global supplier of grains, including wheat and corn, and exports about 40 million tons in total per season.

The Economy Ministry has forecast this year’s wheat harvest at 21 million tons, but the UAC – the largest Ukrainian farming union – said that estimate did not include output from small farmers that could add 500,000 to 800,000 tons.

Official data showed Ukraine’s farmers had harvested 21 million tons of wheat, with crops gathered from 98 per cent of the sown area as of August 22.

UAC added that low demand had caused milling wheat prices to fall by several dollars over the past week to approximately $228-$230 (C$315.80 to $318.57) to per ton carriage paid to (CPT).

“There is competition with Russia in the North African markets. There are many sellers in the market, and we are seeing a seasonal decline in prices,” UAC said, adding that prices could decrease to $222-$225 per ton CPT in the near future.

The union slightly increased its outlook for Ukraine’s 2025 corn output to up to 29 million tons from 28 million tons previously.

Ukraine’s Economy Ministry sees corn production at 28 million tons.

UAC said traders were gradually starting to contract corn, and that about 3.2 million tons of the grain had already been contracted from September to December.

“The main competition will come from American corn, and we will be competing with them for the European market. Our advantage is that our corn is GMO-free,” UAC said.

Ukraine will start the corn harvest in September.

— Reporting by Pavel Polityuk.

The post Ukraine 2025 wheat crop seen at 21.8 million tons, corn at 28 million-29 million says farm union appeared first on Country Guide.