Traders said they were increasingly expecting that Trump’s administration will encourage more imports of beef and cattle in a bid to offset tight U.S. supplies and bring down prices for consumers.

U.S. beef prices hit records this year as output declined and consumer demand remained strong. Production suffered after a years-long drought in the western U.S. burned up pasture lands used for grazing and raised feeding costs, forcing ranchers to reduce their cattle herds to the lowest levels in decades.

“This market is pricing in the idea that all of the 2026 U.S. beef decline will be offset,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist for brokerage Allendale.

Most-traded December live cattle closed at 227.175 cents a pound, down 6.750 cents. February live cattle settled at 224.000 cents per pound, down 9.425 cents.

Most-active January feeder contracts closed down 13.750 cents at 334.425 cents per pound. November contracts settled at 338.450 cents per pound, down 13.750 cents.

The exchange temporarily widened the markets’ daily trading limits last week after futures sank.

Last week, Trump urged cattle ranchers to lower prices, while infuriating them with a plan to quadruple the country’s low-tariff imports of Argentine beef. Ranchers said increased imports threaten their livelihoods and that Trump should support demand for U.S. products.

Traders said they thought Trump may next dial back tariffs on Brazilian goods, including beef, after a meeting on Sunday with Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian products in August, slowing U.S. imports of beef from the world’s largest exporter.

“Early last week, we would have expected no removal of the tariffs against Brazilian products,” Nelson said. “Now that’s very possible.”

This week, Mexico’s agriculture minister is expected to travel to Washington with the aim of reaching an agreement on reopening the border to Mexican cattle. Since May, Washington has mostly blocked imports of Mexican cattle to keep out a fresh-eating parasite called New World screwworm, further tightening U.S. supplies.

Choice boxed beef ended the afternoon at $377.88 per cwt, up $2.12. Select boxed beef was valued at $361.66 per cwt, up $3.69, the USDA reported.

Lean hog futures closed slightly down. Most-traded December contracts closed at 81.500 cents a pound, down 0.400 cents. February futures settled at 83.400 cents a pound, down 0.900 cents.

The USDA put pork carcass cutout value at $101.08 per cwt, down $1.66.

-With files from Glacier FarmMedia

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Trump, who imposed import tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and autos earlier this year, called the video ad fraudulent in a Truth Social post Thursday.

“Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had removed most of Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports imposed by his predecessor, and the two sides have been in talks for weeks on a deal for the steel and aluminum sectors.

On Friday, Trump accused Canada of trying to influence the U.S. Supreme Court as it prepares to hear arguments next month over the legality of Trump’s sweeping global tariffs.

In an early morning Truth Social post he also said former President Reagan embraced tariffs, but Reagan was a free market and free trade proponent.

Reagan voiceover criticises tariffs

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said this week that the ad from his provincial government, more than a week old, had caught the Republican president’s attention.

Ford has frequently urged Carney to take a more aggressive approach with Trump. Carney has visited Trump in the White House twice since becoming Prime Minister in March.

The ad’s voiceover consists of Reagan, a hero to many U.S. Republicans, criticizing tariffs on foreign goods while saying they cause job losses and trade wars.

“I heard that the president heard our ad. I’m sure he wasn’t too happy,” Ford said on Tuesday.

The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation said the ad used “selective audio and video”, and that it was examining legal options.

“The ad misrepresents the Presidential Radio Address (by Reagan in 1987), and the Government of Ontario did not seek nor receive permission to use and edit the remarks,” a Foundation statement said.

The video uses five complete sentences from the five-minute weekly address, spliced together out of sequence.

“When someone says, `Let’s impose tariffs on foreign imports,’ it looks like they’re doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs,” Reagan says. “And sometimes for a short while it works – but only for a short time.”

He also says: “…over the long run such trade barriers hurt every American worker and consumer”, and that the result of trade wars is that “Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs.”

Trump has raised tariffs to highest since 1930s

The ad does not, however, mention that Reagan was using the address to explain that tariffs imposed on Japan by his administration should be seen as a sadly unavoidable exception to his basic belief in free trade as the key to prosperity.

The Canadian government had no immediate comment. Earlier on Thursday, Canada sharply reduced tariff-free import quotas for General Motors and Stellantis, citing their decisions to scale back manufacturing in the country.

Trump’s trade war has increased U.S. tariffs to their highest levels since the 1930s and he has regularly threatened more duties, sparking concerns among businesses and economists.

Carney told reporters on Thursday that Canada will not allow unfair U.S. access to its markets if talks on various trade deals with Washington fail.

Next year, the U.S., Canada and Mexico are due to review their 2020 continental free-trade agreement.

Carney comments

Speaking to reporters on the tarmac before departing to Kuala Lampur, Malaysia, Carney said cannot control U.S. trade policies, but that Canadian officials were working closely with their U.S. colleagues on “detailed, constructive, negotiations” on specific sectors, including steel, aluminum and energy.

“We stand ready to pick up on that progress and build on that progress when the Americans are ready to have those discussions,” said Carney, adding because it will be for the benefit of workers in the United States, workers in Canada and families in both of our countries.”

Carney also said Canada was focused on what it can control, including investing domestically and “developing new partnerships and opportunities, including with the economic giants of Asia, which is the focus of this trip.”

— Reporting by Kanishka Singh, Doina Chiacu, and Susan Heavey; Additional reporting by Phil Franz-Warkentin of Glaicer FarmMedia

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Reuters — U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is quadrupling the tariff rate quota on Argentinian beef to 80,000 tonnes to reduce prices and protect American farmers, a White House official said on Thursday.

Why it matters: Canadian cattle ranchers are seeing record high prices through this year’s fall run, but lower U.S. prices would spread north.

The move lets Argentina ship more beef to the U.S. at a lower rate of duty at a time when U.S. beef prices have set records due to tight cattle supplies and strong consumer demand.

The plan to import more beef from Argentina has angered U.S. ranchers, who largely supported Trump in his campaigns for president. They said the government should support domestic producers and that increased imports threaten their livelihoods.

“A deal of this magnitude with Argentina would undercut the very foundation of our cattle industry,” said Justin Tupper, a South Dakota cattle producer and president of the United States Cattlemen’s Association.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins on Fox Business Network’s “Mornings with Maria” said the administration was working to support both beef consumers and ranchers.

“There is frustration on both sides. And I was with the president yesterday and he is very, very frustrated because (of) everything he’s done to cut taxes, to bring down costs,” Rollins said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday announced a plan to expand the domestic cattle herd and support American cattle ranchers, after Trump said he was working to lower the price of beef in the country.

Economists said the plan would probably not do much to lower prices quickly. U.S. cattle supplies have dropped to their lowest levels in decades after a drought burned up pasture lands used for grazing and hiked feeding costs, forcing ranchers to reduce the size of their herds.

BEEF HEADED FOR HAMBURGERS

Miguel Schiariti, president of Argentina’s Meat Industry Chamber CICCRA, told Reuters that meat exports to the U.S. consist of the country’s traditional beef cuts and meat used in the hamburger industry to lower fat levels.

“It’s good news for the industry,” Schiariti said. “Argentine beef is highly valued in the U.S. It has very good press. Argentina is rebuilding its distribution chain in the United States.”

However, U.S. analysts said increasing the amount of quota likely would not bring down beef prices for consumers much. The U.S. often imports lean beef from Argentina that is mixed with domestic supplies to make hamburger meat, they said.

Some of the beef could be served at restaurants or mixed into other food products, analysts said. This would help restaurant operators and food companies improve their margins but not necessarily lower prices for consumers, they said.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump had pledged to protect ranchers and deliver economic relief for everyday Americans.

The administration was accomplishing both by expanding beef imports from Argentina to lower consumer prices in the short term and rolling out new supports for ranchers, she said.

— Reporting by Jeff Mason, Susan Heavey, Leah Douglas, Tom Polansek and Maximilian Heath

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The December live cattle contract lost 5.600 cents per pound on Wednesday, at 239.825 cents. Feeder cattle were down their daily limit of 9.250 cents per pound in most months, with the November contract at 364.225 cents per pound and January at 361.025 cents per pound.

Trump claimed on social media that U.S. ranchers were benefitting from tariffs and urged them to “get their prices down.”

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed, with choice boxes down $1.28 at $370.65 per hundredweight and select boxes up $1.04 at $353.61/cwt.

The ongoing shutdown of the United States government will likely delay the publication of monthly cattle on feed data scheduled to come out on Friday. However, market expectations are for a decline in placements on the year.

Lean hog prices were lower, with the December contract down 0.875 cents at 82.400 cents per pound.

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Why it matters: Canadian cattle producers are also enjoying record high prices through the fall run, with values tied closely to the U.S. market

Trump earlier this week said the administration was considering importing Argentine beef as a means of lowering record-high consumer beef prices. The suggestion angered U.S. ranchers. U.S. farmers also recently lost out to Argentina on soybean sales to China.

“The Cattle Ranchers, who I love, don’t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States, including a 50% Tariff on Brazil,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. “They also have to get their prices down, because the consumer is a very big factor in my thinking, also!”

Cattle and beef prices have surged after a years-long drought burned up grazing land and hiked feeding costs, forcing ranchers to slash their herds.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has said that American ranchers must raise more cattle. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on NewsNation on Tuesday that she would announce on Wednesday the agency’s plan to “restore and revitalize the beef herd in America.”

Eight Republican members of Congress sent a letter to Trump on Tuesday asking for more information on his plan to import beef.

“(We) urge your administration to ensure that any future decisions are made with full transparency, sound science, and a firm commitment to the U.S. cattle industry,” said the letter, led by Representative Julie Fedorchak of North Dakota.

Economists have warned there is no quick fix to lowering U.S. cattle prices, because it takes two years to produce full-grown cattle.

“He needs to take a class in supply and demand,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX. “Cattle prices are high because demand is stronger than the supply. If you want to increase the supply of beef long term, you don’t do it by lowering prices.”

Tariffs imposed by Trump on imports of goods from Brazil this summer decreased the supply of beef coming into the U.S. from Brazil, prompting meat importers to pay higher prices to other suppliers, traders said.

“That certainly contributed to the higher cost of beef at the retail level,” Suderman said. “It doesn’t mean more profits to people feeding out cattle.”

Feeder cattle futures set a record high last week.

On Wednesday, after Trump’s post, U.S. feeder cattle futures dropped by their daily maximums. January futures were down the 9.25-cent limit at 361.025 cents per pound.

— Reporting by Doina Chiacu, Katharine Jackson, Leah Douglas and Tom Polansek

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Trump said on Sunday, Oct. 19, that he was considering imports to reduce U.S. beef prices that have climbed to record highs. His administration earlier extended a $20 billion currency swap lifeline to Argentina, which the president considers an ally.

Cattle producers saw the suggestion as a threat to their livelihoods and free markets, at a time when ranchers are profiting from sky-high livestock prices and strong consumer demand.

“This plan only creates chaos at a critical time of the year for American cattle producers, while doing nothing to lower grocery store prices,” said Colin Woodall, CEO of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association industry group.

Last month, the Trump administration frustrated farmers by negotiating financial support for Argentina at a time when Argentina was selling soybeans to China, which has not bought any soy from the autumn U.S. harvest due to its trade conflict with Washington.

“The last thing we need is to reward them by importing more of their beef,” said Rob Larew, president of the National Farmers Union.

Trump floated hiking beef imports aboard Air Force One on Sunday night.

“If we buy some beef — I’m not talking about that much — from Argentina, it would help Argentina, which we consider a very good country, a very good ally,” Trump said.

A U.S. Department of Agriculture spokesperson said the agency is working to lower beef prices while supporting cattle ranchers with disaster aid and other efforts.

“These actions coupled with President Trump’s work to secure lasting markets for beef producers abroad send a strong message to American cattle producers – raise more beef and rebuild the herd,” the spokesperson said.

The White House did not respond to a request for more information.

U.S. feeder cattle futures tumbled on Friday after Trump first said he was working on a deal to lower beef prices. They hit their lowest level in more than a week on Monday before ending nearly unchanged.

In Montana, Jan McDonald, 78, said she plans to take calves to an auction for sale on Saturday and worried that Trump’s suggestion could hurt prices.

“I don’t know where he’s coming from,” McDonald said. “It makes me very nervous about the future.”

Economists say imports won’t lower prices

Economists said increased imports from Argentina, which last year represented about two per cent of total U.S. beef imports, were unlikely to reduce U.S. beef prices.

“The U.S. cannot buy enough beef from Argentina to materially move the needle in the market,” Steiner Consulting Group said.

Imports could also discourage U.S. producers from expanding their herds to boost domestic beef production, economists said. There is no quick fix to boost U.S. output as it takes about two years to produce full-grown cattle, said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University agricultural economist.

“Flooding markets with foreign-grown beef could affect our nation’s ability to be food independent in the long-term,” American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said.

U.S. cattle inventories in January dropped to the lowest level in nearly 75 years, after ranchers slashed their herds due to a years-long drought that burned up grazing lands and hiked feed costs.

Supplies tightened more as the U.S. since May has mostly suspended imports of Mexican cattle amid concerns about the northward spread of New World screwworm, a flesh-eating pest that infests livestock. U.S. tariffs on goods from Brazil have also slowed imports of Brazilian beef.

— Reporting by Leah Douglas and Tom Polansek; additional reporting by Jeff Mason

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The Globe and Mail, citing sources familiar with the matter, said the agreement could be ready for Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump to sign at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit later this month in South Korea.

Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and autos earlier this year, prompting Ottawa to respond in kind. The two sides have been in talks for weeks on a potential steel and aluminum deal.

“We’ll see. We are in ongoing discussions with the Americans, and I wouldn’t overplay it,” Carney told reporters in Ottawa when pressed about the report, adding that he planned to meet Trump in South Korea.

The White House and U.S. Commerce Department did not respond to requests for comment outside regular business hours.

The U.S. is not ready to make any deal on Canadian automobiles or on softwood lumber, a sector which has been targeted by Washington for decades.

Canada will probably have to accept quotas on steel in exchange for a lower U.S. tariff, with critical minerals off the table in these talks, sources told the Globe and Mail.

Reuters reported earlier this week that Canada offered tariff relief on some steel and aluminum products imported from the U.S. and China, in efforts to help domestic businesses battered by a trade war on two fronts.

Carney visited Washington earlier this month and said he had “a meeting of minds” with Trump on the future of the steel and aluminum sectors.

— Reporting by Ananya Palyekar and David Ljunggren

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“I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution,” Trump wrote on social media.

“As an example, we can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don’t need to purchase it from China.”

China has sharply reduced U.S. soybean purchases, which Trump has called a negotiation tactic. Trump said this month he hopes to discuss soybeans with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping while also warning the U.S. may halt a large share of imports from China.

China is the world’s largest buyer of soybeans, and in recent months has sharply reduced purchases of U.S. soy in favor of sourcing from Brazil and Argentina amid tariff and trade disputes.

Trump has targeted China with a cascade of tariff orders on billions of dollars of imported goods that he says is aimed at narrowing a wide trade deficit, bringing back lost manufacturing and crippling the fentanyl trade.

Washington and Beijing have had strained ties for years, especially with Trump in office. They have been at odds over issues like trade tariffs, technology, human rights, the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical matters such as Hong Kong, Taiwan and Ukraine.

— Reporting by Kanishka Singh

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On Oct. 1, the Globe and Mail reported that a potential change to bilateral trade law allowing for more U.S.-sourced dairy on Canadian grocery shelves was being floated in Ottawa, citing unnamed sources close to the issue but who were “not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.”

That contrasts with official word from the federal minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade. A spokesperson from the office of Dominic Leblanc reiterated commitments to protect Canadian industry, said that their office had engaged with supply managed industries and stated that ““Canada’s supply management system will never be on the table,” when asked for comment from the Globe and Mail.

WHY IT MATTERS: Supply management, and dairy in particular, has been a prime target for U.S. irritation as trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. continue.

The article further noted that Leblanc had launched consultations between government representatives and “key players” in Canada’s dairy industry Sept. 19, in advance of 2026’s anticipated review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).

Neither LeBlanc or industry sources offered further comment. The two unnamed sources said talks thus far had focused on import restriction changes.

Access to Canadian dairy markets and supply management systems are forecast to be among the CUSMA review’s most heated exchanges, particularly in light of U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated condemnation of the practice.

Tariff rate quota, which earmarks certain dairy volumes to come into Canada at lower duty levels, has been a particular sticking point, not only from the Trump administration, but also during the Biden administration, as well as creating tension between Canada and New Zealand. Trading partners have argued that TRQ rights tended to be unfairly reserved for Canadian processors, leaving little room for access.

In 2021, Canada faced a CUSMA complaint over the issue from the U.S., after which it made changes to how TRQs were administered.

The U.S., however, has long pushed for a more open system. That less regulated access has been resisted strongly by the Canadian government and supply management advocates, who argue that the current system has been key for providing consistent market conditions and has bolstered the health of sectors like Canadian dairy and poultry.

The consultations also take place in the shadow of Bill C-202, the successor to Bill C-282, which died on the floor when Canada’s federal election was called in early 2025. The bill limits Canada’s ability to make trade concessions impacting supply managed industries. It was welcomed by supply management advocates, but denounced by export-reliant agriculture sectors, who argued that it de-fanged Canada at the negotiating table. Bill C-202 received royal assent on June 26 of this year.

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• The goal of removing tariffs it to minimize economic damage
• Removing tariffs could help trade and security talks continue
• The federal government is seeking other trade partnerships
• The federal government can’t rely on U.S. negotiators to act in good faith

Trade disputes between the United States and Canada are nothing new. They date back as far as the late 19th century.

What began as two neighbouring countries seeking to expand their markets and assert economic sovereignty has evolved into a broad range of conflicts.

These historical trade disputes have included accusations of unfair subsidies, protectionist tariffs, and, more recently, concerns over national security, fentanyl and border security.

Softwood lumber, one of the most important items on the list of Canadian exports to U.S., has been consistently under attack by different American administrations. The disputes go back to as early as 1980s and are still one of the major sources of trade interruptions between the two countries.

Other important areas of trade disputes are agricultural products namely, dairy, beef and grain as well as steel and aluminum, auto and aerospace industries, to name a few.

Trump’s tariffs

Earlier in 2025, the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump even violated the existing Canada-U.S. Mexico Trade Agreement (CUSMA) by imposing tariffs on products that were supposed to be exempt under the provisions of the deal.

This action has had negative economic effects on both the U.S. and Canada. In the words of Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada, “restoring open trade is important for jobs, growth and price stability in Canada.”

South of the border, the tariffs imposed on Canadian products are likely raising costs for American consumers and businesses, though calculating the precise increase is complex because manufacturing components cross the Canada-U.S. border many times.

Carney’s move

Though some might call it weakness, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s move to lift the retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods covered under CUSMA while retaining tariffs on auto, steel and aluminum, is arguably a wise strategy.

The end goal is to minimize economic damage to Canada. According to Carney, this tariff removal on about 85 per cent of Canada-U.S. trade is consistent with the commitment under CUSMA.

Furthermore, such alignment with the U.S. could create a guarantee for the continuation of trade and security talks currently ongoing between the two countries.

Some argue that such a strategic decision will benefit Canadian consumers by making imports cheaper, reducing inflationary pressure on the Canadian economy and giving Canadians a sense of relief knowing that a trade deal will be achieved.

While the statistics don’t explicitly link the removal of Canadian retaliatory tariffs with the downward pressure on inflation or boosting Canadian consumption, it is generally accepted that lower prices for imported goods increase purchasing power.

Alternate trade relationships

Is Carney buying time? Does he have a long-term plan for Canada and the direction of trade?

While the prime minister is seemingly trying to keep negotiations productive in the lead-up to CUSMA’s renegotiation in 2026, his government has also started negotiating with many other countries (especially in Europe) to secure more reliable trading partners.

In June 2025, Carney said:

“We will need to dramatically reduce our reliance on the United States. We will need to pivot our trade relationships elsewhere.”

These echo similar comments he’s made over the past several months, including these remarks:

“Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over. The system of open global trade anchored by the United States — a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that, while not perfect, has helped deliver prosperity for our country for decades — is over.”

An unpredictable U.S.

By offering tariff relief on non-strategic goods while retaining protections for key sectors of the Canadian economy — steel, aluminum and automobiles — Carney isn’t surrendering. As an economist, I believe he’s being strategic.

Canadians should keep in mind that the federal government is not dealing with a reasonable American administration under Trump. It is predictably unpredictable.

Managing relations with such a partner is a profound challenge in diplomacy, simply because negotiators cannot rely on the U.S. government acting in good faith and adhering to the provisions of existing trade deals.

To effectively handle this situation, the Canadian government must have a plan that integrates strategy, patience and psychological insight. It should also have multiple back-up plans in case there is a sudden shift in U.S. trade policy and action. I argue that what Carney has done so far is an astute tactical manoeuvre.

—Nargess Kayhani is associate professor of economics at Mount Saint Vincent University.

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