As for the Canadian soybean crush, StatCan has not published any new data since it released its report for the July crush in August 2025. The agency said any numbers have been “suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act.”

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While the U.S. soybean crush continued to expand, StatCan didn’t include any soybean crush data for 2025 due to confidentiality requirements under the Statistics Act.

Canola

Canadian canola crushers took in more than 11.55 million tonnes of the oilseed last year, compared to the five-year average of 10.16 million. In the U.S., which has a far smaller canola crop to work with, its crush came to 2.02 million tonnes, a little more than the average of 1.98 million.

Soybeans

At more than 60 million tonnes, the U.S. soybean crush continued to expand with it far exceeding its five-year averages for seed, oil and meal. For the Canadian crush, it was receding from recent highs in 2022.

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Marlene Boersch of Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc. in Winnipeg said large carryouts and lower prices over the past year will likely mean fewer pulse acres this spring.

“Like for all commodities, prices are down quite a bit. So your return-per-acre calculation will change very significantly,” Boersch said. “On top of that, for both lentils and peas, you will have some very significant carryout.”

Seeded lentil acres were estimated at 4.138 million tonnes, down 5.5 per cent from last year. The total would be the least amount of acres in three years and the second-least since 2020. One reason for the decline would be the 2025-26 carryout of 1.695 million tonnes, more than three times larger than the previous year’s.

Dry pea acres were also set to be lower, dropping by 12.3 per cent at 3.078 million acres. The figure was also the lowest in three years and the second-lowest since 2012. Dry pea plantings will decline in all three Prairie provinces, most notably Saskatchewan where it will lose 16.6 per cent for a total of 1.479 million. The 2025-26 carryout for dry peas was 1.31 million tonnes, nearly triple from the previous year.

The amount of edible bean acres is projected to decline by 30.7 per cent at 295,000 acres, the smallest total since 2015 and one year after the biggest edible bean crop since 2020. Manitoba’s seeded area was estimated at 120,000 tonnes this year, down 44.7 per cent from 2025.

StatCan estimated faba beans acres this spring to total 55,900, 18.8 per cent lower than in 2025 and the fewest acres since 2016. It would also mark the fourth straight time faba bean acres in Canada declined year-by-year.

Chickpeas were the only pulse to buck the trend. Canadians are expected to use 6.3 per cent more land than last year to grow the crop at 575,000 acres. It would be the fifth straight yearly increase for chickpeas and its largest seeded area since 2001. This is despite 2026 ending stocks for chickpeas having more than quadrupled from the year before at 275,000 tonnes.

The planting survey was conducted from mid-December to mid-January. However, rising fertilizer prices tied to the escalating conflict in the Middle East could shift planting intentions, said Glacier FarmMedia analyst Bruce Burnett. He said the relatively lower input costs for pulse crops compared to other options could lead to more area going to peas and lentils this spring than earlier expectations.

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Based on interviews by Glacier FarmMedia, the general outlook is for more planted acres devoted to canola, spring wheat, barley and oats. Then expectations are for less durum, corn, soybeans, lentils and peas going into the ground.

Canada-China trade deal

Of note, the StatCan report will be based on farmer surveys conducted in December. That was before Canada and China reached their tariff deal that has eliminated or slashed levies on China’s imports of Canadian canola seed and meal, as well as other products.

Jon Driedger of Leftfield Commodities said farmers were very likely planning to seed more canola this year anyways.

“Prior to the China trade deal, canola was penciling out better than a lot of other crops,” Driedger said, noting that agronomics may limit how much farmers can plant of each crop.

John DePape of Farm Co. projected 22.50 million acres of canola to be planted in 2026/27, suggesting that “would be on the lower side.”

Jerry Klassen of Resilient Capital said he expects Canadian farmers to revert to their more traditional plantings, which would see larger crops such as canola and spring wheat, while there’s likely to be less durum planted. Klassen said a good amount of durum was seeded last year in areas that traditionally grow very little of it.

He concurred that more canola will be planted in 2026/27 because it offers the best returns.

Pulses, cereals

For pulses, Klassen said less acres will be allocated to them due to their large ending stocks, especially for lentils and peas.

Klassen added that high fertilizer prices and supply shortages of it could affect farmers’ planting decisions, especially in Manitoba and Ontario.

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Canadian farmers and ranchers held 11.1 million cattle and calves on Jan. 1, up 2.5 per cent from one year before. Inventories rose across all categories of cattle. Beef heifers for breeding were up 4.8 per cent and beef cows were up 1.9 per cent.

Producers held 3.6 million calves, 4.3 per cent more than a year prior. This was mainly due to a 42.7 per cent increase in international imports of calves between July and December.

In the last six months of the year, slaughter of cattle and calves fell by 6.5 per cent to 1.6 million head, StatCan said. International exports dropped by 8.9 per cent to 361,300 head. Despite decreases, feeder and slaughter cattle prices climbed to record highs over the latter half of 2025 on global demand.

Hog inventories down

Canadian hog farmers reported 13.9 million hogs on farms as of Jan. 1, down 0.8 per cent from one year prior. They reported 1.2 million sows and gilts — up 0.4 per cent. The number of boars was unchanged at 15,300 head.

The pig crop for the second half of 2025 rose by three per cent year-over-year to 15.2 million. StatCan attributed this to an increase in demand from processors and international trade.

International exports of live hogs were up eight per cent year over year at 3.5 million head. Hog slaughter rose by 1.8 per cent to 10.9 million head.

Sheep and lamb inventory up

Canadian sheep and lamb inventories rose by three per cent year over year to 833,000 head.

The sheep breeding herd was up 2.2 per cent as inventories of ewes and replacement lambs both increased. Ram numbers were stable.

Sheep and lamb slaughter fell by 2.9 per cent year over year between July and December. Average producer prices for slaughter lambs fell well below those in the previous six months.

Between July and December, international exports of live sheep and lambs rose by 19.5 per cent to 4,900 head.

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Wheat

• Total Canadian wheat stocks as of Dec. 31 of 27.5 million tonnes were up by 5.9 per cent from the same point the previous year, and well above the five-year average of 23.6 million tonnes.

• On-farm stocks at 24.1 million tonnes were up 7.2 per cent on the year, while commercial stocks were down 2.7 per cent at 3.4 million tonnes.

• Of the total, durum stocks were up by 18.5 per cent on the year at 5.3 million tonnes.

Canola

• Canola stocks as of Dec. 31, 2025, were up 18.8 per cent on the year at 15.6 million tonnes. On-farm stocks were up 21.2 per cent at 14.3 million tonnes, while commercial stocks dipped by 7.4 per cent at 1.3 million tonnes.

• StatCan linked the larger canola supplies to increased production and a sharp drop 36.1 per cent drop in exports due to Chinese tariffs.

Barley

• Barley stocks were up 16.7 per cent on the year at 5.7 million tonnes. That compares with the five-year average of 4.8 million tonnes.

Pulses

• Lentil stocks of just under three million tonnes were roughly double what was on hand at the same point the previous year.

• Pea stocks were 77.5 per cent higher on the year, at 3.0 million tonnes.

Corn/soybeans

• Corn stocks were down 3.3 per cent from the same point a year ago, at 10.9 million tonnes.

• Soybeans stocks were 26.6 per cent lower on the year at 3.2 million tonnes.

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“The crop this year was just huge,” Shiels said of the 2025/26 harvest.

3.92 million tonnes

Statistics Canada pegged the oat harvest at 3.92 million tonnes, up from 3.36 million in 2024/25.

“We really didn’t have a big increase in acres, we just had a really good crop on almost every one of those acres,” he added. “It’s really burdensome on the market.”

The December report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada placed the planted oat area for 2025/26 at about 1.21 million hectares compared to 1.17 million the previous year. The yield improved to 3.74 tonnes per hectare from 3.38.

Less to be planted in spring

Shiels said a common projection in the trade has called for a three per cent decline in oat acres, although one estimate he said predicted a 12 per cent drop.

“The carryout is going to be huge, maybe 700,000 to 750,000 tonnes,” Shiels said. “That’s the largest in a long time.

AAFC projected oat ending stocks at the high end as exports are expected to only bump up to 2.65 million tonnes from 2.57 million and total domestic use is to climb to 1.05 million tonnes from 972,000.

‘Oats at a loss’

With that in mind, Shiels said some country elevators are already below C$3 per bushel for old crop oats. He noted new crop bids are in the C$3.25 to C$3.50 range.

“Those are planting oats at a loss,” Shiels warned.

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USDA vs. AAFC

In the USDA’s monthly world oilseed report issued on Jan. 12, the department maintained its December projection of a Canadian canola ending stocks of 3.71 million tonnes. Should that hold, it would make for a jump of nearly 146 per cent from 2024/25.

In December, AAFC forecasted those canola ending stocks at 2.95 million tonnes, up from 1.60 million in 2024/25.

“The USDA is currently estimating lower crush and exports than AAFC in 2025/26 which would explain the difference in ending stocks,” USDA spokesperson Luke Cummings said in an email to Glacier FarmMedia. Cummings noted USDA policy is to assume any trade policies are assumed to remain in effect for a given marketing year.

‘Both wrong’

To MarketsFarm analyst Mike Jubinville, AAFC and the USDA are “both wrong” when it comes to their carryover estimates.

“We are currently running a weekly export shipment pace to total 6.6 million tonnes of canola exports this year. That’s well short of the eight million tonnes AAFC is using,” Jubinville continued.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported for the week ended Jan. 4, that cumulative canola exports for 2025/26 reached 2.81 million tonnes, compared to 4.72 million a year ago. China’s steep tariffs on Canadian canola being main reason for the 40.5 per cent decline.

Jubinville said unless China were to lower or eliminate its levies on its imports of Canadian canola seed, oil and meal, the carryout for the oilseed is likely to reach 4.10 million tonnes.

“I’d say USDA is closer to reality and AAFC is slow to catch up,” Jubinville said, adding that such high ending stocks would be “burdensome.”

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China with the first blow

China dealt a serious blow to Canada’s yellow pea exports in March, as Beijing slapped 100 per cent tariffs on its imports of the pulse crop from Canada, as well as canola oil and meal. The move was a retaliatory measure against Ottawa’s earlier action to impose 100 per cent duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles and 25 per cent on steel and aluminum that went into effect in October 2024.

Pulse Canada said about 500,000 tonnes of Canadian yellow peas in total were exported to China in 2024, with average annual exports of around 1.50 million.

Data from the Canadian Grain Commission showed China’s pea imports from licensed facilities in 2025/26 are a mere 70,400 tonnes. That represents less than eight per cent of the nearly 892,000 tonnes Canada has shipped out so far this year. In 2024/25, China already took in 263,000 tonnes, which were more than 26 per cent of Canada’s pea exports.

India with the second blow

Then throughout much of 2025, India has played something of a cat and mouse game with a series of extensions to its duty exemptions on yellow pea imports. A lack of domestic supply and rising prices led the Indian government to suspend its duties, but not without some bumps along the way.

Back in March, there was a great deal of uncertainty as to what New Delhi was up to as it had missed its own deadline to announce another extension or impose tariffs. Almost two weeks late, New Delhi said it extended the duty-free period to the end of May.

Things seemed to be just fine with India until the proverbial wheels came off the bus at the end of October. Rumblings within the market proved to be true when New Delhi slapped 30 per cent tariffs on all of is yellow pea imports, even though it said earlier the duty-free period would last until March 2026.

Declining prices led India’s pulse growers to push for the duties to be reinstated, and a lot earlier than what the government planned.

Prices & production

Currently, yellow pea prices across Western Canada are C$6.50 to C$7.38 per bushel delivered as of Dec. 19, Prairie Ag Hotwire reported. During 2025, the yellows topped off at a high of C$11.40 and they were C$5.94 at their lowest point.

As for production, Statistics Canada placed the 2025/26 total dry pea harvest at 3.93 million tonnes, up from slightly below three million the previous year.

In Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s December supply and demand report, it raised the dry pea carryover to 1.57 million tonnes from 1.20 million in November and 489,000 in 2024/25.

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“A really good flax crop this year. Acres were up and the quality on an overall basis was definitely better than what we have seen in at least five years, maybe 10,” Shiels added.

He said there’s a possibility of more flax being planted come spring.

Why it matters: flax can be a suitable alternative to canola

Statistics Canada reported earlier in December that Prairie farmers brought in an estimated 454,460 tonnes. That’s up from nearly 258,000 tonnes combined last year and well above the five-year average of about 383,700 tonnes. Virtually all of Canada’s flax is produced on the Prairies.

“It’s been a good year, a little bit of a resurgence for flax,” Shiels said, noting the increase in flax largely came at canola’s expense.

Good prices

While Canadian flax production pales in comparison to the record 21.80 million tonnes of canola harvested in 2025, Shiels said there are a few factors favouring flax going into 2026.

One of those is pricing. Shiels said flax continues to maintain its premium over canola of C$2 to C$3 per bushel, despite the flax pulling back from around C$20/bu. for brown flax to about C$17.

“(Flax) is down a couple of bucks off of the highs that we saw at harvest time and in the late summer,” Shiels said.

Good pricing also fueled the increase in flax production this year, as farmers were able to lock in for C$19/bu. versus C$14 to C$15 for canola, he continued.

Shiels said the demand for flax is strong, particularly when it comes to the bakery and health food markets. Also, the United States hasn’t imposed a tariff on its imports of Canadian flax.

“Flax isn’t for everybody,” Shiels warned. “It’s a little tougher to market and it’s a lot tougher to grow.”

Looking ahead

However, he wasn’t sure if flax prices would improve between now and when spring planting begins in 2026.

“If canola prices stay where they are, we could see another bump up in flax acres,” Shiels said, adding that it depends on flax’s premium over canola. “If that remains when the new crop pricing comes out, we will see (an increase).”

Although canola’s outlook is currently bleak, as the market grapples with this year’s record harvest grapples versus poor exports, Shiels suggested any increase in canola prices could push up flax prices “just to try to stay competitive.”

Shiels said he welcomes more increases in flax production as the North American market doesn’t produce enough and relies on imports.

“We’d love to see flax acres back on the Prairies,” he said. “We would like to buy local.”

Flax production 2024/25 2025/26

Planted hectares 203,800 250,900

Harvested hectares 204,100 249,100

Production (tonnes) 257,974 454,461

Yields (tonnes per hectare) 1.28 1.82

Source: Statistics Canada

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