The four-day Pro Farmer crop tour, which concluded in Rochester, Minnesota, on Thursday, found above-average production potential in each of the seven Midwestern states it covered. Several states boasted the highest projected corn yields and soybean pod counts in tour records dating to 2003.

About 100 participants spent the week scouting more than 1,500 corn and soybean fields in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota.

Grain traders have been monitoring the tour’s findings to gauge the size of the 2025 harvest in the United States, the world’s largest corn exporter and No. 2 soybean supplier.

The tour projected the corn yield in Iowa, the biggest U.S. corn grower, at 198.43 bushels per acre (bpa), above the 2024 tour average of 192.79 bpa, and Minnesota’s corn yield at 202.86 bpa, a sharp jump from 164.90 in 2024.

The yield estimates for both states were the highest in the tour’s 22-year data set.

“The Minnesota (corn) crop was way better than last year. It’s a good, solid crop, with plenty of moisture,” said Sherman Newlin, an analyst with Risk Management Commodities who was on the tour.

The four-day tour, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the number of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot (91cm x 91cm) square in Iowa at an average of 1,384.38 pods, while Minnesota’s average count was 1,247.86 pods. Both were the highest in tour data.

“The story of the tour is the massive pod counts we are seeing,” said Ted Seifried, chief strategist for Zaner Ag Hedge and a scout on the tour.

However, the same warm and wet weather that helped promote crop growth this summer has also fostered the spread of yield-robbing diseases in the two states, particularly Iowa.

“Sudden death syndrome and white mold could be limiting factors for reaching today’s scouted potential” in soybeans, said Tim Gregerson, a Nebraska farmer on the tour.

Scouts noted southern rust, a fungal disease, in Iowa and Minnesota corn, although it was too soon to know its impact on yields.

“The crop still needs another four to five weeks to finish (growing),” Gregerson said.

—1 acre = 0.405 hectares

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The four-day Pro Farmer crop tour, which started on Monday and covered seven major corn and soybean states, found strong production potential so far. Grain market participants have been monitoring the tour’s findings to gauge the size of the 2025 harvest in the United States, the world’s largest corn exporter and No. 2 soybean supplier.

Above-average Illinois soy potential

The tour, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the number of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot square in Illinois, the top soy-producing state, at an average of 1,479.22, above last year’s tour average of 1,419.11 pods and the highest in tour records, which date back to 2003.

The tour projected the Illinois corn yield at 199.57 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 204.14 bpa in 2024, but the second-highest on tour records.

In Iowa’s western third, the tour’s corn yield forecasts and soybean pod counts were well above the three-year averages. It will release full statewide figures for Iowa on Thursday.

Rust, fungal issues

Timely rains benefited crops in western Iowa but also promoted the growth of fungal diseases such as southern rust in corn and sudden death syndrome in soybeans, which tend to lower crop yields.

“I think we’ve lost 10 per cent of the yield due to disease,” Roger Cerven, an Iowa farmer who is on the tour, said of sudden death syndrome in soybeans.

For corn, southern rust was so widespread in some Iowa fields that scouts emerged with sleeves covered in dusty orange-colored residue from rust spores on corn leaves.

The extent of any impact of diseases on yields won’t be fully known until crops are closer to harvest, scouts said, but some effects may emerge sooner.

“The crop, I think, is going to look a whole lot different in 10 days or two weeks than what it does right now,” said Chip Flory, one of the tour’s leaders.

Roughly 100 crop scouts are on the tour, which wraps up in Rochester, Minnesota, on Thursday. The editors of Pro Farmer, a newsletter, will release their own estimate of U.S. corn and soybean production on Friday.

—1 acre = 0.405 hectares

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In Indiana, corn yield potential is the highest in the tour’s records since at least 2003, though the average soybean pod count in the state is slightly below 2024 levels.

Corn crop shows record potential

Market players are monitoring the four-day crop tour, which started on Monday and covers seven top U.S. corn and soybean states, for more cues on harvest prospects after the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast on August 12 a record-large corn crop, depressing Chicago Board of Trade corn Cv1 futures.

Nebraska’s crops benefited from timely rainfall across much of the state. While irrigation is common in parts of Nebraska, the rains have helped to boost growth on dryland fields, which typically produce lower yields than irrigated acres.

“This is probably one of the better crops I’ve seen, mainly because the dryland (acreage) is not bringing the average down,” said Brent Judisch, a farmer from Cedar Falls, Iowa, who is on the western leg of the tour.

The Pro Farmer tour, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the average number of soybean pods in a 3-foot-by-3-foot (91cm-by-91cm) square in Nebraska at 1,348.31 pods, above last year’s average of 1,172.48 pods and the highest in tour records through 2003.

Indiana soy estimated above average

Crop scouts projected Nebraska’s average corn yield at 179.50 bushels per acre (bpa), above the 2024 tour average of 173.25 and the highest since the 2021 tour.

For Indiana, scouts projected an average corn yield of 193.82 bpa, the biggest in the tour’s records and an increase from the 2024 estimate of 187.54 bpa.

The tour estimated the average soybean pod count for Indiana at 1,376.59 pods, down from 1,409.02 pods in 2024 but above the three-year average of 1,294.98 pods.

“We see a lot of potential right now, but there is still a lot of this growing season left,” said Lane Akre, a Pro Farmer economist on the eastern half of the tour.

Scouts will survey crops in Illinois and western Iowa on Wednesday and the tour wraps up in Rochester, Minnesota, on Thursday.

The editors of Pro Farmer, a newsletter, will release their own estimate of U.S. corn and soybean production on Friday.

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A lot depends on the weather and markets, but representatives of the soy and pulse industry believe that nitrogen-fixing crops could become 25 percent of total acres in Manitoba.

“We think there should be a legume once every four years (in the rotation),” Daryl Domitruk, executive director of Manitoba Pulse & Soybean Growers, said at the association’s annual meeting held Feb. 14 during the CropConnect conference in Winnipeg.

“In Manitoba, if we have 10 million acres of annual cropland, that’s 2.5 million acres…. We think that it can be anywhere from 1.75 million acres of soybeans and the remainder made up by dry beans and peas.”

Manitoba is the largest dry bean producer in Canada, mostly pinto, navy and black beans.

The 25 percent share for soybeans and pulse crops hasn’t happened yet because soy acres have been highly volatile over the last seven years.

Acres have ranged from 2.3 million acres in 2017 to 900,000 in 2022 and everywhere in between.

Dry growing seasons, novice growers planting varieties that were ill-suited for their farm and disappointing yields pushed acres down from the high point of 2017.

However, soy proponents say the roller coaster may soon calm down.

“If we get out of these dry (growing) seasons we’ve been having, our acres will go up,” said association chair Melvin Rattai, who farms near Beausejour.

Dennis Lange, a soy and pulse specialist with Manitoba Agriculture, is also predicting that soybean acres will stabilize in the coming years. He expects it to settle out at 1.5 to 1.7 million, with an acreage bump in years with strong prices.

Following the annual meeting in Winnipeg, Rattai said there’s a dedicated group of soy growers that represent about one million acres.

The remaining production depends on weather and markets, which are difficult for farmers to control.

What they can control is investment in research, such as development of varieties with improved tolerance of drought and dry conditions.

“We’re starting to see that already…. The breeders are making some progress,” Rattai said.

“They (the newest varieties) can produce more beans with less water.… They are starting to show up.”

Soybean yields in Manitoba were all over the map from 2017-22. The average yield was around 27 bushels in 2019 and then hit a record of 45 bu. in 2022.

That sort of variability creates too much risk so growers will choose canola or wheat instead of soy.

“We’ve invested a lot in drought-tolerant genetics … to stabilize the yield of soybeans,” Domitruk said.

“With science and diligent research, we can get to a stable yield…. I think a warming climate is going to help us. Soybeans, they thrive in that (heat).”

More research is needed to reduce yield volatility, but another opportunity could lift up the province’s soy industry.

A number of growers are experimenting with identity preserved (IP), or food grade, soybeans, which are used to make tofu and other products.

“I just finished a trade mission to Japan.… That is the high-end market that we need to access,” Rattai said.

“They’re using our beans already. They just want more of the IP beans.”

IP soybeans are not genetically modified and don’t come with herbicide tolerance, making them more challenging to grow.

Last year, Rattai planted IP soybeans for the first time on his farm and the crop was a success.

In comparison to Roundup Ready beans, yields were only five percent lower.

“We had a 55 bushel crop… With the new varieties coming out, they’re going to compete very well with the GMO (beans).”

One unknown for Manitoba soybean acres will be demand from renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) refineries in North America.

Azure Sustainable Fuels, a Calgary company, is looking at building a SAF plant in Portage la Prairie, Man., which could produce 20,000 barrels of aviation fuel per day.

The project is still at the design and engineering stage, but if Azure can raise the funds to build the $1.9 billion plant, demand for soybean and canola oil could skyrocket in Manitoba.

—Robert Arnason writes for the Western Producer from Manitoba.

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Researchers and plant breeders have explored new methods to address diseases or pests, but these advances can have trouble gaining traction without translating to more bushels in the bin.

Matt Rundle is trying to shift the focus on performance by examining more of the physiological properties of plant growth in soybeans. He’s working with Hugh Earl, Dave Hooker and Istvan Rajcan from the University of Guelph and Horst Bohner of the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs on a three-year project to measure critical variables during growth stages R2 to R5. He’s measuring in-season characteristics that aren’t standard, with the goal of determining how crop growth rate relates to final yield components such as pod numbers, seeds per pod and seed size.

The study is the basis for his master’s degree and is funded by OMAFRA and Grain Farmers of Ontario.

Better beans

Rundle is trying to quantify the effects of location and management on dry matter accumulation, yield and yield components. He’ll attempt to correlate crop growth rate at different times of the growing season with variation in final yield components across a variety of management practices.

“Some of the work may not directly correlate to a new agronomic practice that you can apply to increase farm revenue,” says Rundle, now a product placement scientist with Syngenta’s North American seeds development team. “That’s what the agronomic work is doing but some of this physiology work creates knowledge that we can build on for future practices or products we can bring to market.”

The R2 to R5 stages encompass flowering and determine the level at which that range is a determinant of yield, based on pod numbers, seeds per pod and seed size. Some of the traits he’s tracking include above-ground biomass, interception of incoming solar radiation into the canopy and greenness in the canopy.

The study uses a randomized complete block design at three sites — Woodstock, Maryhill and Elora — giving Rundle nine site years of data from three varieties and four replications per site. The three varieties were selected from the Ontario Soybean and Canola Committee trial summaries for their above-average performance and same days to maturity, approximately 2750 to 2775 crop heat units. Plots are planted to 15-inch rows, 160,000 seeds per acre with insecticide, fungicide and inoculant seed treatments. The sites are kept weed free with soil-applied and in-crop applications, and scouted for insects with spray applications as required.

‘The 100-bushel challenge’

The research began in 2021 and will continue through the 2023 growing season. Although it’s been dubbed “The 100-bushel challenge,” Rundle notes the 100-bushel mark has been eclipsed, and genetic yield potential continues to climb.

“To be honest, we may not get (to 100 bushels),” says Rundle. “But we wanted to shift the narrative away from the notion that if we don’t hit 100 bushels, we’ve failed. This is about these other pieces we’re considering.”

Rundle concedes most growers aren’t concerned with greenness in the canopy or radiation-use efficiency, but he wants to use the data to summarize the findings that could be used in a management practice, not as a means of discovering a “silver bullet.”

“It’s not this targeted approach to find one way to achieve higher yields, it’s understanding more about the plant which enables us to hit higher yields in the future. Beyond that, we’ve learned all of this from our crop growth rate measurements or canopy greenness or the radiation use efficiency, but there may be unanswered questions at the end. That’s the fun of it: this may create more opportunities for master’s students to look at this and follow it up.”

Confirming past studies

Despite conducting more than 700 soybean trials, Horst Bohner knows there’s an opportunity to learn more beyond the standard metrics he’s been studying for the past 20 years. This project isn’t about repeating aspects of his research or testing every foliar fungicide.

“I’m curious because we’ve often observed that inputs are not additive for soybeans like other crops,” says Bohner, soybean specialist with OMAFRA. “In other words, 1 + 1 does not equal 2 but rather 1 + 1 = 1. This is non-linear, where you’re determining whether you’re addressing the same shortcomings of yield potential. For example, a little nitrogen might be doing the same thing as early planting.”

In the first two years of the project, the average non-irrigated field response was 6.5 bu./ac. in high management over the untreated control. But is that a reflection of doing those things that are known to be “right” to get a 6.5 bu./ac. response? Or is that tied to the physiological factors associated with growth rates at R2 to R5?

“We’re not necessarily trying to focus on which inputs are economical at each site for this project,” Bohner says, citing soil-applied fertilizers with 100 pounds of actual N, twice per season as an example. “Ultimately, we’ve had some nice differences in yield with respect to different sites.”

Bohner says the three most commonly cited influences on yield are variety, good soil and weather (climate). It’s possible to have a 6.5-bushel response from enhanced soil test levels or a better N response during a dry year. He hopes Rundle’s work can help determine the fundamental differences between a plant that yields 100 bushels and one that yields 50.

“We need a couple of more years of data to tease out the details of what works best. The good news is that we have a lot more space upwards in the potential for soybeans compared to other crops like corn.”

The pot test

The opportunity to study the physiological factors in soybean production is of particular interest to Hugh Earl. In a separate component, also funded by the GFO and OMAFRA, Earl tried something he’s wanted to do for years. He’s growing the same variety in the same field at the same time, but growing it in pots in an adjoining irrigated plot, effectively eliminating water as a limiting factor. The responses he saw in 2022 were surprising: 78 bu./ac. in the field but 88 bu./ac. in the pots.

“Those plants in the pots had far more biomass and grew ‘leggy,’” says Earl, associate professor of crop physiology at the University of Guelph. “I honestly believe that if everything was perfect below ground, we’d be far above 100 bushels. But then the question is could you ever do that? Probably not — there’d be some fundamental limitations of the soil — maybe its ability to move water towards the roots fast enough.”

It’s the opportunity to study the plant physiology that’s intriguing: how were high-yielding plots different from low-yielding plots? Were there more plants per metre squared? Were there more pods per plant or seeds per pod or were the seeds larger?

“Which physiological component varies when you have big yield differences?” Earl asks. “In soybean, that’s almost always pod number. Sometimes seed size will come into it, especially with late-season stress. For every point in the season, you can determine how fast ‘this’ plot is growing, or how fast ‘that’ plot is growing. The growth rates are telling you what kind of photosynthetic rate it is at that time of the season and every yield component has a point in the season where growth rate is going to have the biggest effect.”

Based on that measurement, Earl contends pod numbers are determined between R3 and R5, and a high crop growth rate will determine the pod number. A little later in the season, the effect will be greater on the number of seeds in the pod, and on seed size much later.

“The idea is to look at all of these location years and treatments and say, ‘How do big yields compare to little yields in terms of which yield component is affected, and where in the season was that yield component determined?’”

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Manitoba soybean yields are “anywhere from 20 to 50” bushels per acre, said Mark Jorgenson of Delmar Commodities. Crops were looking “exceptional” up until the end of July, he said, “but the tap just turned off and a lot of guys got nothing (for precipitation) in August.

“You got it, or you didn’t, and that’s how the yields are showing,” said Jorgenson, adding that even neighbouring fields were reporting different yields due to sporadic shower activity.

Average soybean yields in the province are typically in the high 30s to low 40s in bushels per acre, but Jorgenson expects the average to be in the lower 30s in 2018.

With a lower acreage base to start, Statistics Canada is currently predicting soybean production in the province to come in at 1.77 million tonnes, which would be down from the record 2.25 million tonnes grown the previous year but still above the five-year average.

While Manitoba soybean production may be down, prices will continue to be dictated by the U.S. “At the end of the day, we obviously can’t replace the loss of U.S. beans. We’re a much smaller acreage base,” said Jorgenson.

“There is uncertainty in the market with all of the tariffs,” he said, pointing to the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China weighing on soybean futures prices.

“China still needs to eat and they have a huge appetite for soybeans,” said Jorgenson. Canadian soybeans were seeing some additional demand due to the U.S./China dispute, he added, with good new-crop pricing opportunities available earlier in the year.

While Canadian prices usually follow the U.S. “every once in a while somebody needs to fill a train… and flat prices shoot up.

“I think there will be opportunities, and you just need to be patient,” he added.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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Many crop analysts see soybean yields below what farmers have enjoyed for the past couple of years, but they stress that fields are variable and that longer-season varieties may give different results once harvest begins on those types.

Cassandra Tkachuk, Manitoba Pulse and Soybean Growers’ production specialist, said she is seeing smaller seeds and a wide range of yields from 20 to 50 bushels per acre.

“So, I think we might end up somewhere in the middle of the road there for average yield, like around 35-ish, would be my prediction,” she said.

The average soybean yield for Manitoba is generally considered to be about 35 bu./ac. Farmers expecting the above-average yields of the past two years might be disappointed.

Bruce Burnett, Glacier FarmMedia’s director of weather and markets information, said soybeans are coming in at lower yields than they have for the past two years, but overall yields might get close to the longer-term average.

“I think the early soybeans might be a bit disappointing in terms of yields, but we’ll have to see what the later soybeans come up with.”

The issue most affecting yields was the dry summer, especially in the key filling time in August, he said. The number of beans per pod is down and pod size is also a concern, he added.

Intermittent rains falling in many areas likely won’t be enough to harm plants, he said, unless it drags on and fields get exceptionally wet.

Soybean fields were just starting to mature up when the rains started, Tkachuk said. Farmers in the Red River Valley have taken off about 40 per cent of their soybeans, with farmers in other areas of the province lagging.

“I’m thinking that right around the time that the rain started, quite a few fields were really just maturing up and getting ready to be harvested, and then it was just not great timing to finish up,” she said.

With a few dry days, harvest should be able to progress, she said.

Burnett pointed to decent weather forecasts for the next little while, but it’s variable, he added.

The southern Prairies’ weather outlook is mostly OK through the weekend, he said, but with possible showers for Monday and into next week, depending on location.

Northern growing areas, where cereals and canola were still being harvested, might have a few more problems, he said.

“It’s one of those things where if you’re in the northern growing areas you’re getting some rains every two or three days.”

— Terry Fries writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

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“This year we had just over 1.6 million acres planted. Early projections call for two million acres” next year, said Dennis Lange, pulse specialist for Manitoba Agriculture.

For that to occur, some other crops will have to make room. Canola could be one of the crops to feel the pinch, along with peas and a few others, Lange said.

“We saw a rise (in field peas) last year. But we’ve had some weather conditions, especially in the south, so we’ll probably see those acres drop off.”

Soybeans held their own this year despite the wet weather, he said. Average yields hit a record 41.3 bu./ac. in the province in 2016, according to data from Statistics Canada. That’s up by about four bushels an acre from the previous record.

“I’m saying we could see 42-bu./ac.-a-year averages,” he said, adding the picture would become clearer once crop insurance data had been tabulated.

Low fertilizer costs are yet another reason behind soybeans’ attractiveness.

However, some of the factors that producers should consider before planting include seed costs and the long growing season needed for a successful harvest, Lange said.

“What growers have to remember is that we haven’t had a killing frost in soybeans in over six years,” he noted.

Soybeans are typically planted in May and harvested in mid- to late September, said Lange.

However, he said, 2016 was an exception due to the wet weather.

“This year it went into late October due to the late weather but with commodity prices being strong, growers have had good yields, good returns,” he said.

Meanwhile, it appears U.S. soybean acres will grow as well. A recent forecast by Informa Economics predicted U.S. growers could plant six per cent more soybeans in 2017, which would bring the U.S. crop’s area to 88.4 million acres.

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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The U.S. Agriculture Department on Monday raised expected demand for U.S. soybeans during the 2016-17 crop year by 35 million bushels, of which 25 million for exports and 10 million for crushings.

But the already record production outlook was raised by a whopping 141 million bushels, with increased yield forecasts from top production states Iowa and Illinois leading the charge amid near-perfect growing weather during the key development month of August.

“We have a phenomenal demand story in the soy complex,” said Greg Grow, director of agribusiness for Archer Financial Services. “(But) with the much greater than normal August, rains, it is still probable that the final bean yields… could go up a bit more.”

Demand may have topped out, he added.

USDA’s forecast for 2016-17 soybean demand has risen by 136 million bushels since the government’s initial assessment in May, largely due to expectations of an additional 100 million in exports. Its outlook for U.S. production has climbed by 401 million bushels during the same period.

The benchmark Chicago Board of Trade November soybean futures contract, which tracks the crop currently heading toward maturity across the U.S. Midwest, fell 16 cents to settle at $9.64-1/4 on Monday (all figures US$). Soy futures snapped a six session winning streak.

The market may already be factoring in a huge U.S. soybean harvest that is nearly in the bag, but the possibility of another year of shortfalls in Brazil and Argentina could keep the bears at bay, said Ted Seifried, chief ag market strategist for Zaner Group.

The strong demand pull throughout 2016 was enough to limit declines as the U.S. crop flourished during the summer, and could provide support as combines roll across the Midwest this fall.

Soybean futures fell 12.6 per cent during June, July, August, outperforming corn, which plunged 22.1 per cent, and wheat, which sank 16.4 per cent, during the same time frame.

“Though there’s a bearish reaction to this report, I’m not so sure this is really that bearish of a report,” Seifried said, referring to the latest outlook from the USDA. “I think that soybeans new crop carry-over is not a big enough cushion for if something goes wrong with the South American growing season.”

— Mark Weinraub is a Reuters correspondent covering grain markets from Chicago. Additional reporting for Reuters by P.J. Huffstutter in Chicago.

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USDA on Friday pegged the corn crop at 15.153 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 175.1 bushels per acre. That topped analysts’ forecasts that ranged from 14.580 billion to 15.146 billion for production and 168.6 to 175 for yield.

The soybean harvest was seen at 4.06 billion bushels, with yields expected to average 48.9 bushels per acre. Analysts’ soybean estimates ranged from 3.865 billion to 4.054 billion for production and 46.7 to 48.8 for yield.

A month ago, USDA had projected corn production at 14.54 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 168 bushels per acre, and soybean production at 3.88 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 46.7 bushels per acre.

Good weather for crop development during July across broad swaths of the U.S. Midwest, the key growing area for corn and soybeans, allowed crops to mature with relatively little stress.

USDA forecast corn yields for Illinois, the second biggest state for production of the yellow grain, at 200 bushels per acre. If realized, that would be 25 bushels per acre higher than in 2015.

In Iowa, the biggest corn producer, yields were forecast at 197 bushels per acre, up from 192 bushels per acre in 2015.

The massive crops would outstrip the rising demand trend. USDA boosted its supply outlook for the upcoming marketing year to reflect the expected bumper harvest.

For soybeans, domestic ending stocks were seen at 330 million bushels, up 40 million bushels from the government’s July estimate. Analysts, on average, were expecting 2016-17 soybean ending stocks of 316 million bushels, according to a Reuters poll.

USDA also boosted its 2016-17 soybean export forecast by 30 million bushels and its outlook for crushings by 15 million bushels.

Rising export demand caused the government to cut its outlook for old-crop soybean ending stocks to a smaller-than-expected 255 million bushels from 350 million bushels. It raised its 2015-16 soy export forecast by 85 million bushels.

Corn ending stocks for 2016-17 were raised to a bigger-than-expected 2.409 billion bushels from 2.081 billion despite a 125-million bushel increase in the export outlook and a 175-million bushel increase to feed and residual usage.

Old-crop corn ending stocks were pegged at 1.706 billion bushels, up just five million bushels from July.

— Mark Weinraub is a Reuters correspondent covering grain markets based in Chicago.

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