The attaché forecast a crop of 51.0 million tonnes for the upcoming marketing year, besting expectations of 49.5 million for 2023/24. The official USDA estimate on Argentina’s current soybean harvest remained 50.0 million tonnes, but either number will be better than the 25.0 million tonnes harvested in 2022/23.

While Argentina’s corn crop has been at the mercy of spiroplasma that’s spread by leafhoppers, the Buenos Aires desk pointed out the disease doesn’t affect soybeans.

However, the attaché cited some concerns about the La Niña, which usually results in less rain for Argentina. Nevertheless the yields are projected to improve to 2.99 tonnes per hectare in 2024/25 from 2.88 presently.

Reports said about a quarter of Argentina’s soybean harvest has been completed, compared to the normal pace of 50 per cent done.

The Buenos Aires desk pegged Argentina’s soybean crush to bump up to 40.0 million tonnes from 39.5 million in 2023/24. Soybean exports are to climb to 7.3 million tonnes from 6.5 million. Ending stocks are projected increase to 10.6 million tonnes from 8.4 million.

The crush is to result in 31.2 million tonnes of soymeal and 7.9 million tonnes of soyoil, up slightly from the 30.8 million and 7.8 million produced in 2023/24. The attaché projected soymeal exports to hold at 27.0 million tonnes in 2024/25, while the carryout is to rise to 3.1 million tonnes from 2.6 million.

Soyoil exports out of Argentina are to 5.3 million tonnes in 2024/25, nudging up from 5.1 million this year. The carryover to is hold at 225,000 tonnes.

Argentina is ranked by the USDA as the world’s third largest producer of soybeans, while also being the largest exporter of soymeal and soyoil.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg

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When the USDA released its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates on Apr. 11, the department kept its estimate on Brazil soybean production for 2023/24 at 155 million. Also that day, Conab issued its monthly report, which trimmed its projection to 146.52 million tonnes from the 146.86 million in March.

Early notions of Brazil soybean output exceeding 160 million tonnes were dashed this marketing year due to severe dryness and heat in the country’s northern half, and extremely wet conditions in the southern half. Those widely different conditions made planting very difficult.

Numerous private consultancies steadily reduced their estimates, with several of them predicting a harvest of less than 150 million tonnes. However, the USDA has remained steadfast with its estimates, indicating it believes the crop is much larger than what most others think it will be.

One of those consultancies expecting a Brazil soybean crop at less than 150 million tonnes has been Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc. in Hinsdale, Ill. In his most recent calculations, Cordonnier raised his forecast by two million tonnes, expecting the harvest to come in at 147 million tonnes.

As for the wide difference between the USDA and Conab, Cordonnier said it has been the source of a lot of discussions.

“I think part of the problem is the hot and dry weather in Brazil last October and November. Some of the soybeans were replanted several times or even switched to another crop. So what looked like soybeans on the satellite at the start of the season maybe did not end up as soybeans at the end of the season,” Cordonnier stated.

Also he pointed a difference in soybean acre estimates, with Conab at 111.78 million and the USDA believing there’s more.

“The USDA thinks that Conab has not accounted for the expansion of soybean acreage in northeastern Brazil. They may have a point because maybe the farmers are not reporting all their acreage to the Brazilian government for whatever reason. On the other hand, Conab uses satellite technology to estimate acreage just like the USDA, so why is there a difference of almost two million acres of soybean between the two estimates,” said Cordonnier, adding he’s not sure which agency is correct.

A Conab spokesperson said in an email the agency compiles its data through a variety of methods, including several forecasting models, as well as considering the weather conditions of Brazil’s several states, farmer surveys, past data, and crop tours.

“In relation to the various organizations that carry out harvest research, Conab’s principle is to respect the methodologies applied by these entities, understanding that each method has its specific particularities, suited to the availability of human and financial material and other factors that enable execution of the methodology,” the spokesperson wrote.
USDA oilseed analyst Joanna Hitchner explained why the USDA has produced soybean numbers for Brazil higher than those from Conab.

“When estimating Brazilian crops, USDA uses all available data, including CONAB and Brazil’s state agencies. We review CONAB’s estimates because CONAB shows a complete look at the crops in the country. We also use satellite imagery for yield analysis, weather variables, soil moisture maps, and our post reports in Brazil and other publicly available data,” Hitchner stated.

“The USDA shows larger soybean crops than CONAB across several years because we use a balance sheet approach to reconciling the crop.  After the marketing year is complete, USDA reconciles its crop estimate with final use data for Brazil using official soybean export data reported by SECEX and crush data reported by Associação Brasileira das Indústrias de Óleos Vegetais (ABIOVE), the widely accepted source for Brazilian crush data,” she added.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg. 

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Dennis Lange said projections indicate there will be 180,000 to 200,000 acres devoted to dry beans in Manitoba this spring. In 2023, 142,300 acres were grown according to Statistics Canada. He estimated the 2023-24 average yield for dry beans in Manitoba to be between 1,800 to 2,000 pounds per acre, down from 2,000 last year and 2,300 in 2022-23.

“The black and pinto beans are going to make up the majority of that increase, with navys, kidneys, (cranberries), pinks and some of those other types mixed into that,” Lange said. “But I think we’ll see more pinto and black acres.”

However, he added that dry conditions would not be the major obstacle preventing the expansion of acres, but rather a lack of seed supply.

“If growers are trying beans, they may be a little bit more limited in the availability on some of the more desirable types of pintos. They may have to start looking at other varieties. Growers will have to start looking pretty hard at finding seed, if they already haven’t done that,” Lange added.

He also said if there is a dry spring, growers will have to pay attention to seeding depth.

“Typically three-quarter to an inch-and-a-half is the desirable planting depth for beans. I like to see beans planted into moisture, but I don’t like to see them planted at two inches. Pushing through that depth can be too challenging for a bean,” Lange said.

Soybean acres are also expected to increase in Manitoba at between 1.8 to two million acres, compared to 1.595 million in 2023-24, according to Lange. He also expects soybeans and dry beans to fill a void left by a potential decline in canola acres due to the oilseed’s recent low prices.

“I think there’s more of a shuffling around of acres between different crops. With dry beans, growers have to be very selective on where they plant their dry beans. They have to make sure the soil type is conducive to good yields and making sure that it will be the right choice for that piece of ground,” Lange added.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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“Corn acres are to be down a couple of million from last year and soybean acres are to be up, with larger stocks [for both] as well,” Strommen said.

He pegged U.S. corn acres for 2024/25 at 91 million to 92 million, with soybeans around 87 million. He noted that the planted wheat area was likely to be lower as well at about 40 million acres.

Ending stocks are expected to increase for the most part during the coming crop year. Strommen placed those for corn at about 2.30 billion to 2.40 billion bushels, higher than the USDA’s estimate of 2.17 billion for the 2023/24 crop. For soybeans, the carryover was projected to be 350 million to 400 million bushels compared to this year’s 315 million. The carryout for wheat was projected to go either way at 600 million to 700 million bushels, compared to the 658 million for 2023/24.

Strommen said prices for the three commodities might not continue to grind lower, pointing out “we’re at contract lows pretty early in the season.”

“We’ll have some acre competition. Usually we have some kind of a spring rally,” he continued, noting the U.S. dollar was at or near three month highs which was a major factor in driving prices lower.

Another major factor Strommen pointed to were the very large short positions in corn and wheat, and soybeans to a lesser extent, held by the speculative funds.

“They need some positive news to their minds and reverse their trend to the top side,” he stated.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg. 

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A lot depends on the weather and markets, but representatives of the soy and pulse industry believe that nitrogen-fixing crops could become 25 percent of total acres in Manitoba.

“We think there should be a legume once every four years (in the rotation),” Daryl Domitruk, executive director of Manitoba Pulse & Soybean Growers, said at the association’s annual meeting held Feb. 14 during the CropConnect conference in Winnipeg.

“In Manitoba, if we have 10 million acres of annual cropland, that’s 2.5 million acres…. We think that it can be anywhere from 1.75 million acres of soybeans and the remainder made up by dry beans and peas.”

Manitoba is the largest dry bean producer in Canada, mostly pinto, navy and black beans.

The 25 percent share for soybeans and pulse crops hasn’t happened yet because soy acres have been highly volatile over the last seven years.

Acres have ranged from 2.3 million acres in 2017 to 900,000 in 2022 and everywhere in between.

Dry growing seasons, novice growers planting varieties that were ill-suited for their farm and disappointing yields pushed acres down from the high point of 2017.

However, soy proponents say the roller coaster may soon calm down.

“If we get out of these dry (growing) seasons we’ve been having, our acres will go up,” said association chair Melvin Rattai, who farms near Beausejour.

Dennis Lange, a soy and pulse specialist with Manitoba Agriculture, is also predicting that soybean acres will stabilize in the coming years. He expects it to settle out at 1.5 to 1.7 million, with an acreage bump in years with strong prices.

Following the annual meeting in Winnipeg, Rattai said there’s a dedicated group of soy growers that represent about one million acres.

The remaining production depends on weather and markets, which are difficult for farmers to control.

What they can control is investment in research, such as development of varieties with improved tolerance of drought and dry conditions.

“We’re starting to see that already…. The breeders are making some progress,” Rattai said.

“They (the newest varieties) can produce more beans with less water.… They are starting to show up.”

Soybean yields in Manitoba were all over the map from 2017-22. The average yield was around 27 bushels in 2019 and then hit a record of 45 bu. in 2022.

That sort of variability creates too much risk so growers will choose canola or wheat instead of soy.

“We’ve invested a lot in drought-tolerant genetics … to stabilize the yield of soybeans,” Domitruk said.

“With science and diligent research, we can get to a stable yield…. I think a warming climate is going to help us. Soybeans, they thrive in that (heat).”

More research is needed to reduce yield volatility, but another opportunity could lift up the province’s soy industry.

A number of growers are experimenting with identity preserved (IP), or food grade, soybeans, which are used to make tofu and other products.

“I just finished a trade mission to Japan.… That is the high-end market that we need to access,” Rattai said.

“They’re using our beans already. They just want more of the IP beans.”

IP soybeans are not genetically modified and don’t come with herbicide tolerance, making them more challenging to grow.

Last year, Rattai planted IP soybeans for the first time on his farm and the crop was a success.

In comparison to Roundup Ready beans, yields were only five percent lower.

“We had a 55 bushel crop… With the new varieties coming out, they’re going to compete very well with the GMO (beans).”

One unknown for Manitoba soybean acres will be demand from renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) refineries in North America.

Azure Sustainable Fuels, a Calgary company, is looking at building a SAF plant in Portage la Prairie, Man., which could produce 20,000 barrels of aviation fuel per day.

The project is still at the design and engineering stage, but if Azure can raise the funds to build the $1.9 billion plant, demand for soybean and canola oil could skyrocket in Manitoba.

—Robert Arnason writes for the Western Producer from Manitoba.

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“Definitely everyone in the industry is talking less corn and more beans”, said Scott Capinegro of Barrington Commodity Brokers in Barrington, Ill. “I think your biggest switch in acres will be…in North Dakota and South Dakota. Illinois and Iowa usually stick to their guns with their crop rotations.”

Capinegro said a couple of new soybean facilities are due to come online in the near future, which should improve the crop’s demand. Added to that is the cost of production for corn, which has eroded its profitability. Also, he pointed out the amount of corn farmers still have.

Should any price rallies occur in corn, Capinegro said they would likely not last long as the quantity of corn the farmers sell off would meet demand.

However, one cap on potential soybean acres he noted was the size of the cotton crop in the South.

“It’s a little early to tell, but cotton has been on a nice run to the upside,” Capinegro said.

Two firms have recently published their estimates for U.S. plantings in 2024/25. Farm Futures pegged soybean acres to bump up to 84.95 million, while S&P Global forecast 85.5 million. For corn, Farm Futures projected nearly 92.8 million and S&P called for 93 million.

The United States Department of Agriculture reported soybean plantings in 2023/24 came to 83.6 million acres and those for corn came to 94.6 million. Harvested acres were 82.4 million for soybeans and 86.5 million for corn.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg. 

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AAFC included its first estimates for the 2024/25 marketing year in its January supply/demand report, released Jan. 22.

All wheat area was forecast to dip by 1.9 per cent, at 26.50 million acres, as a 2.9 per cent decline in non-durum wheat should more than counter an expected 1.4 per cent increase in durum to 6.12 million acres.

Barley area was forecast to slip by 4.8 per cent on the year, at 6.97 million acres, while area seeded to oats was projected to see the largest change on the year – rising by 27.1 per cent to 3.21 million acres.

AAFC called for a 1.5 per cent decline in canola area, at 21.75 million acres, with flaxseed dropping by 19.0 per cent to 494,000 acres. Meanwhile, soybeans should hold steady at 5.64 million acres.

The major pulse crops were all expected to see increased area this spring, with both peas and lentils forecast to rise by 5.4 per cent at 3.21 million and 3.95 million acres respectively. Chickpea area was forecast at 371,000 acres, which would be up by 7.7 per cent on the year.

Statistics Canada releases its first official seeded area estimates for the upcoming growing season on March 11.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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The official USDA estimate was trimmed from 163 million tonnes in November to 161 million in December. The department is set to issue its January supply and demand estimates on Jan. 12, and it remains to be seen if any data from its Brazil attaché could be incorporated into the report.

Several private consultancies have dropped their Brazil soybean projections as well, to the low to mid 150 million-tonne range. Among those were Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc. who recently lopped off two million tonnes from his Brazil projection, now at 151 million.

The root cause for the reduction in projected soybean output in Brazil were the delays in getting the crop into the ground. Very heavy rains in the south of the country, such as in Rio Grande do Sul for example, prevented farmers from getting onto their fields in a timely manner. Then extremely dry conditions in central and northern Brazil also kept producers at bay, with any sown crops lacking sufficient soil moisture. Several states were caught up in this drought, including Mato Grasso, Mato Grasso do Sul, Maranhao, and Tocantis.

Of the dry states, they received rain over the last few weeks, greatly helping their crops. Meanwhile, Parana has been one of the few states that’s experienced favourable growing conditions.

Despite the planting difficulties, Brazil still saw the area sown expand from 2022/23. The attaché estimated the previous crop at 44 million hectares and 45.2 million for this year. The USDA was a pinch higher for both, 44.3 million hectares in 2022/23 and 45.6 million in 2023/24.

The Brasilia desk projected a slight decline in Brazil’s soybean exports for 2023/24, with expectations of 100 million tonnes, versus the 102 million the previous year. The USDA projected 102 million tonnes last year and 101 million for this year.

The USDA and its attaché agreed the domestic crush is to be 55.5 million tonnes in 2023/24.

Both were not far off on their calls for total domestic consumption, with the USDA at 59.45 million tonnes for 2023/24 compared to 53.7 million a year ago. The Brasilia desk predicted 59.30 million for this year, up from 56.9 million in 2022/23.

However, the two are very far apart when it came to Brazil’s ending stocks. The USDA placed them at 3.48 million tonnes, up from 2.48 million in 2022/23. Meanwhile its attaché pegged them at only 683,000, dropping from 1.08 million the year before. The latter cited increased use of soybeans for biofuel, along with growing international demand.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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StatCan on Tuesday released the results of its 2022 June field crop survey, conducted between May 13 and June 12, projecting Canadian corn area at 3.633 million acres and soybean area at 5.274 million acres.

Both are down slightly from StatCan’s March 2022 report, which was conducted March 1-29 and released in late April, and had put intended corn acres at 3.715 million and soy acres at 5.358 million.

The new corn figure, however, is up 4.1 per cent from the 2021 total of 3.491 million. Expected soy acres for 2022 are now down 0.9 per cent from the 2021 level of 5.321 million.

“While global demand for soybeans remains high, poor weather conditions in parts of Manitoba may have impacted total seeded area, as some farmers possibly chose shorter season crops because of seeding delays,” StatCan said in its report.

StatCan’s June report put Ontario’s soy plantings at 3.1 million acres (up 4.9 per cent from 2021), Manitoba’s at 1.1 million acres (down 13.8 per cent), Quebec’s at 955,900 (up 3.3 per cent) and Saskatchewan’s at 45,400 (down 46.6 per cent).

Manitoba’s 2022 area would mark the smallest soy planting in that province since 2013, “possibly because of poor field conditions,” StatCan said.

StatCan on Tuesday put this year’s expected grain corn acres in Ontario at 2.3 million, up six per cent from 2021; Quebec’s at 892,300, up 0.7 per cent; Manitoba’s at 399,900, up 2.9 per cent; and Alberta’s at 14,100, down 18 per cent. — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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As soybean production in both countries has risen dramatically over the last 10 years, the U.S. continued to lead the world in production, with Brazil second. The one exception was in the 2017-18 marketing year, in which Brazil slightly edged out its main competitor.

In a report penned by USDA’s attaché in Brazil, Evgenia Ustinova, and released Dec. 27, production has been forecast to hit 123.5 million tonnes in 2019-20, while U.S. production is expected to drop under 100 million tonnes. The U.S. crop was hurt by year-long weather issues, but in Brazil a dry spell in the main growing areas shouldn’t affect its overall production. However, the USDA attaché noted the Matopiba region will likely experience below average production.

In comparison, the Mato Grasso Soybean and Corn Producers Association (Aprosoja) forecast Brazil’s total soybean harvest to reap 123 million tonnes on 91.4 million acres. Ustinova pegged Brazil’s acreage at 90.9 million.

One of the major factors pushing up Brazil’s soybean production was greater domestic usage. Ustinova estimated Brazil will crush approximately 44 million tonnes of soybeans in 2019-20, to produce 34.1 million tonnes of soymeal and 8.6 million tonnes of soyoil. In 2018-19, the Brazilian crush amounted to 42.5 million tonnes and created 32.9 million tonnes of soymeal and 8.1 million tonnes of soyoil.

Also, with Brazil’s biodiesel industry heavily dependent on soyoil, the coming expansion of that fuel’s production will translate into more soyoil usage. As for soymeal, rising domestic consumption is being driven by Brazil’s livestock and poultry industries, the attaché wrote.

There was some caution in Ustinov’s report, specifically the effects of the U.S.-China Phase One trade deal on Brazil. She noted if China is required to purchase more soybeans from the U.S. that could mean China acquiring less from Brazil.

Nevertheless, the attaché projected Brazil’s exports to increase to 75 million tonnes in 2019-20 from 73 million in 2018-19. The attaché cited Argentina’s export taxes on its soybeans, along with lower U.S. production, and the Brazil real losing ground to the U.S. dollar. That’s made Brazil’s exports more attractive, as the real has slipped from 3.75 reais to the U.S. dollar to 4.20.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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