“You can’t close your eyes on these acreage numbers,” said Scott Capinegro of Barrington Commodity Brokers in Illinois.

Total corn plantings in the country were estimated at 94.1 million acres by the government department — a million acres above the top end of trade estimates and well above the 88.6 million acres seeded in 2022. The corn plantings would mark the third-highest acreage base to the crop since 1944.

The increase in corn area came at the expense of soybeans, which saw area fall to 83.5 million acres from 87.5 million a year ago. Average trade guesses had been for similar planted area on the year.

The acreage numbers were bullish for soybeans and bearish for corn, with adjustments to the supply/demand balance sheets for the two crops expected going forward.

While soybean futures have climbed higher in the wake of the report, a wrinkle in the soy market is the soft export demand, according to Capinegro. He noted cheaper Brazilian supplies are displacing U.S. soybeans in the world market, which may limit upside in the futures.

“The rallies in beans are also just telling the world to plant more,” he said.

With the smaller planted area, conditions through the growing season will be especially important for soybeans, with even small adjustments in yield leaving the country with dangerously tight stocks.

Corn may have more of a cushion on acres, but the influence of weather conditions on yields through the growing season will also be important to watch.

Capinegro noted old-crop U.S. corn exports are running well behind expectations, which will be added to ending stocks.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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USDA released its acreage report on Friday, with data provided by respondents between May 30 and June 15. The report came two days after Statistics Canada (StatCan) released its June acreage estimates.

Dry pea acres grew by 80,000 to 999,000 in 2023. While Idaho, Nebraska, South Dakota and Washington all planted fewer acres, the two largest producers, Montana and North Dakota, seeded 590,000 and 290,000 acres of dry peas, respectively. These figures represented 55,000 and 60,000 additional acres from those two states.

Meanwhile, chickpea area grew by 33,900 acres to 387,000. On the flip side, Washington was the only state to lose chickpea acres, dropping 6,000 to 83,000. Montana, the largest chickpea-producing state, added 18,000 acres to 205,000, while Idaho grew 12,000 more acres than last year at 73,000.

U.S. dry bean acres for 2023 were estimated at 1.211 million according to USDA, 39,000 less than 2022’s total. Nebraska had the largest loss in acreage, declining by 17,000 acres at 98,000. Washington was the only state to plant more dry bean acres, adding 16,000 acres at 43,000. North Dakota, the biggest dry bean-producing state, shed 10,000 acres to 560,000.

Lentil acres in the U.S. took a big hit with 127,000 fewer acres than in 2022, putting the 2023 estimate at 533,000. Every state lost lentil acres with the biggest decline found in Montana, which saw a drop of 100,000 acres to 400,000.

StatCan reported last Wednesday that dry pea area fell to its lowest total since 2011 after losing 328,000 acres, to 3.04 million. There were an estimated 81,800 more chickpea acres planted in Canada at 315,600, the highest estimate since 2020. The country added 20,100 dry bean acres for an estimated 317,700 acres in 2023, the first gain in seeded area for the crop since 2020. Canadian lentil area fell to its lowest since 2014 after a decline of 652,800 acres, to 3.669 million.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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“After looking at the [quarterly grain] stocks numbers, you would think they would be lowering ending stocks just a little bit,” he said.

USDA recently reported total farm/commercial soybean stocks for March 1 were at 1.69 billion bushels, while total corn stocks came in at 7.4 billion bushels and total wheat stocks were about 946 million. The trio were all lower than the quarterly stocks from the previous March.

Capinegro also noted China has picked up its buying of U.S. grain.

“Of course it’s not shipped yet, but you should check that off from the ending stocks. Then you add them back when they start cancelling,” he said.

Capinegro said there likely will be a nice rally in corn and soybeans prices during April and May that could extend into the first part of June.

“If we get a nice rally that could be the highs for the year too,” he said.

As for planted corn acres, Capinegro said the 92 million projected by USDA are very likely the high end. He estimated those acres at 91 million to 91.2 million, with farmers in some part of the northern Plains likely switching to soybeans due to wet conditions.

USDA last Friday projected 2023-24 planted acres for soybeans at 87.5 million, close to what was seeded the year before. Also, corn would exceed the 88.6 million planted in 2022-23. Winter wheat acres were set at 37.5 million, up slightly from the previous year, while spring wheat is to ease back at 10.6 million, with durum bumping up to 1.8 million.

“I’m projecting now, on April 5. Four to five weeks from now, is the weather co-operating or is it getting too wet?” he suggested.

On the flip side, with drought throughout much of the southern Plains, Capinegro said there could be farmers plowing under their winter wheat.

USDA’s crop progress report on Monday pegged winter wheat at 28 per cent good to excellent, for its lowest rating in about 20 years. Depending on local conditions, those farmers would then switch to corn or soybeans, thus skewing the projections.

If rains do come in time on the southern Plains, that could save the winter wheat which is now coming out of dormancy, Capinegro said.

USDA is scheduled to release its April world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) on Tuesday (April 11) at 11 a.m. CT.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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The Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports will provide a glimpse as to how much of each crop remains in the U.S. and how much of them will be planted. The trade’s pre-report average estimate for U.S. corn area is projected to be 90.88 million acres, up 2.3 million from last year.

“Assuming we hit that number, I think we’re slightly overpriced,” said Ryan Ettner, trader at Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Ill., citing recent Chinese corn buying as the reason for higher prices of late.

“If we raise acres on corn more than two million, we would assume a fair price might be somewhere in the US$5.60 (per bushel range).”

The trade also estimated 740,000 more soybean acres than last year on average for a projected total of 88.24 million. Unlike corn, soybeans haven’t seen as much Chinese demand as corn and current prices appear to be fair value, according to Ettner.

As for U.S. wheat, the trade is expecting 48.85 million acres on average, 3.11 million more than last year. While the additional area and speculation Russia may limit grain exports are affecting prices, Ettner said traders may instead choose to focus on crop ratings.

April 3 “is the first official good-to-excellent rating from the USDA coming out of dormancy for wheat,” he said. “We might see a little bit of pre-buying going into this first good-to-excellent rating if it moves from 34 to 38, 39 or 40 (per cent), which would be incredibly low ratings to start the year… Acreage might actually play the smallest role.”

Ettner explained the primary reason for the weekly rises for corn, soybeans and wheat was a technical bounce back after heavy fund selling the week before. After USDA’s two reports on Friday, traders will shift their focus to weather, he added.

“You don’t see the trade get too worked up about weather forecasts until (April 3). Starting (then and) through the end of June, you will see weather bounces and traders seeing every weather map.”

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Total pea area in the country is forecast at 1.088 million acres, which would be up 11 per cent from 2021, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s prospective plantings report, released March 31. Lentil area was also forecast to be up 11 per cent on the year, at 788,000 acres.

However, early indications point to an 18 per cent reduction in chickpea area, at 303,600 acres.

“I think the USDA numbers were fairly accurate,” said Tim McGreevy, CEO of the USA Dry Pea and Lentil Council in Moscow, Idaho. While he acknowledged a lot could happen in the next month, the official estimates were generally in line with what his organization was hearing from producers, with seed and inputs already bought for the most part.

“Lentil prices are just as good as chickpea prices, and the seed cost is about half,” said McGreevy.

High fertilizer prices were likely behind some of the increased interest in seeding peas and lentils, as the two crops don’t need extra nitrogen fertilizer. McGreevy said forward contracting prices were also generally favourable.

“Just about anything you put in the ground this year will probably make some money, but it doesn’t make any difference if you don’t get any rain,” McGreevy added, noting many of the key pulse growing regions of the western Plains were still very dry.

“We don’t need another drought,” said McGreevy, adding that “if we don’t get some timely rains it could be repeat of what we had last year.”

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has yet to have a direct impact on the North American pulse market, as it has on wheat and oilseeds, but McGreevy said the region is also a major player in the world pea market.

Russia and Ukraine account for about a quarter of the peas in the world and have been increasing their chickpea and lentil areas recently.

As the Black Sea region is a major supplier of pulses to Europe, Africa and the Indian subcontinent, “the geopolitical shifts of where product could move this year will be interesting to watch,” McGreevy said.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its survey-based Prospective Plantings report on Thursday and the projected acreage numbers for two of the country’s major crop have bucked earlier predictions.

USDA estimates intended plantings for soybeans to reach a record 91 million acres in 2022, up 4.3 per cent from the 87.2 million acres planted in 2021. While the total was within the range of analysts’ predictions (86 million to 92.2 million), the total is higher than USDA’s February Outlook Forum estimate (88 million) and the average prediction from analysts (88.7 million).

However, soybean acreage numbers in the March intentions report have a historical tendency to overestimate actual acreage numbers. Only three times over the past 15 years (2008, 2014 and 2017) have actual totals been larger than the March estimates.

Meanwhile, corn acreage is projected to total 89.5 million acres in 2022, 4.1 per cent lower than the 93.4 million acres grown in 2021. The lower end of analysts’ predictions for corn acreage was 89.7 million, with both USDA’s February Outlook Forum and analysts previously estimating 92 million acres.

The high costs of fertilizer and fuel, as well as higher prices for other commodities, may be steering growers away from corn and towards soybeans. Over the past six March reports, corn acreage has been over- and under-estimated three times each.

The estimated planted area of all wheat for 2022, according to USDA, will be 47.4 million acres. The figure represents a 1.4 per cent increase from 2021’s actual acreage of 46.7 million. Unlike soybeans and corn, the estimate provided in the report was close to previous projections as both USDA and analysts had predicted 48 million acres. Analysts pegged the upper limit of the range of estimates at 48.9 million.

Despite the increase, the 48 million acres would be the fifth-lowest acreage total for wheat in the U.S. since 1919. Out of all wheat, 34.2 million acres would be winter wheat, an increase of 1.7 per cent from 2021.

USDA also released its grain stocks report on March 31. Soybean stocks were up 24 per cent from 2021 to 1.93 billion bushels as of March 1. Wheat stocks were down 22 per cent from the year before at 1.02 billion bushels. Corn stocks totalled 7.85 billion bushels, a year-by-year increase of two per cent.

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture shocked traders last week by reporting that U.S. farmers plan to sow 87.6 million acres with soybeans this spring and 91.1 million acres with corn. Both estimates were well below analysts’ expectations for 89.996 million soybean acres and 93.2 million corn acres.

“The focus for the market will be on enticing U.S. farmers to plant more acres of soybeans and on the need to produce near record yields,” said Tomm Pfitzenmaier, analyst for Summit Commodity Brokerage.

Most-active soybean futures settled up 10-3/4 cents at $14.12-3/4 per bushel, while wheat rose seven cents to $6.18 per bushel (all figures US$).

Most-active corn futures slumped 6-1/2 cents to $5.53-1/4 a bushel, after hitting its highest price since June 2013 at $5.85 a bushel on Thursday. Traders sold old-crop contracts and bought new-crop contracts in spread trades.

USDA’s planting estimates revived concerns about tightening global supplies after importers led by China, along with domestic processors, loaded up on grain and soybeans this season.

It appears USDA’s estimate for U.S. soybean exports is possibly 50 million bushels to 100 million bushels too low, Pfitzenmaier said.

The agency is due to update its agricultural supply and demand estimates in a monthly report on Friday.

In another report due at 4 p.m. CT on Monday, analysts surveyed by Reuters expect USDA to show U.S. corn planting is three per cent complete. Technical problems delayed the release of the data.

There are reports that some farmers are shifting more acres to corn, particularly in places where planting has started and field conditions are favorable, said Karl Setzer, commodity risk analyst for AgriVisor.

“At this point it does not seem like a huge number of acres will shift,” he said.

— Reporting for Reuters by Tom Polansek in Chicago; additional reporting by Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

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Nearby soybean futures also fell on profit-taking, after a limit-up rally a day earlier.

However, deferred futures contracts for corn and soybeans rose, gaining against nearby contracts on spreads, as USDA’s plantings report shifted the market’s focus to the 2021 harvest.

Chicago Board of Trade May corn settled down 4-1/2 cents at $5.59-3/4 per bushel, turning lower after reaching $5.85, the highest price on a continuous chart of the most-active corn contract since June 2013 (all figures US$). But the new-crop December contract settled up seven cents at $4.84-1/2.

CBOT May soybeans tumbled 34-3/4 cents, finishing at $14.02 a bushel, while new-crop November soybeans ended up 7-1/2 cents at $12.63-3/4.

“The real story Wednesday was the shortage of acres. As such, today’s strength is in the new-crop contracts to encourage acreage expansion, while the old-crop contracts see profit-taking,” Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX, wrote in a client note.

Wheat futures declined amid favourable growing conditions across the Northern Hemisphere. CBOT May wheat settled down seven cents at $6.11 a bushel.

U.S. farmers plan to sow 91.1 million acres with corn this year, the most since 2016, and 87.6 million acres with soybeans, the most since 2018, USDA said Wednesday. However, both estimates were well below analyst expectations for 93.2 million corn acres and 89.996 million soybean acres.

“The USDA’s March 2021 Prospective Plantings reports were a massive, bullish surprise in corn and soy as expectations for a record 183 million combined acres were dashed by the Herculean difficulty of growing U.S. acreage by six per cent in one year,” Rabobank analysts said in a note.

USDA’s planting estimates have revived concern about tightening global supplies after importers led by China and domestic processors loaded up on grain and oilseeds this season. The U.S. is the world’s biggest corn exporter and the No. 2 soybean supplier.

Most U.S. markets will be closed on Friday in observance of the Good Friday holiday.

— Reporting for Reuters by Julie Ingwersen in Chicago; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

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The department on Wednesday issued its first survey-based prospective planting report for 2021, which called for increased acres for soybeans and corn, but at numbers below market expectations. That sent prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) — as well as the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) — into a frenzy of daily limits.

ICE canola’s four front months closed out trading with gains of $30 per tonne, up their daily limit. In turn, ICE raised the limit to $45/tonne effective Thursday.

Where prices go from here remains to be seen, but after a few weeks of needing fresh news, the commodities got much more than a good jolt to breathe new life into the markets.

With the average trade guess for planted U.S. soybean acres at about 90 million, the USDA report came in at 87.6 million acres.

That five per cent gain over plantings in 2020 is likely not enough to meet demand, according to Winnipeg-based independent trader Jerry Klassen.

“The way things are going with the export demand, it looks like we’re going to have another tight year on the beans. So that is supportive for canola,” Klassen said, noting markets will hold their value until the crops are more certain.

It was a similar story for U.S. corn, for which USDA forecast a tiny increase of 0.3 per cent in planted acres, at about 93 million. That also will mean pressure on corn, facing tight supplies. Thus, Klassen stressed that corn will likely be ruled out as a substitute for feed grains such as barley and wheat.

At this point in the marketing year, he said, attention will be turning away from the old-crop months to focus on the new-crop months.

Also, Klassen predicted a sharp increase in canola acres in Canada, perhaps to a record amount, in 2021. The most recent forecasts from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) projected 20.1 million acres of canola to go into the ground this spring. Statistics Canada is scheduled to come out with its first survey-based set of projections at the end of this month.

With dryness across much of the Prairies, where the vast majority of canola is grown in Canada, there’s likely to be a premium — and that, he said, could see canola prices climb higher.

— Glen Hallick writes for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Corn futures were up by their 25 cents per bushel daily limit in reaction to USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report, while soybeans were also up by their 70-cent limit in many trading months.

“The USDA posted much less acres than expected, especially for corn and beans,” said Terry Reilly of Futures International in Chicago.

U.S. soybean plantings for 2021 were forecast at 87.6 million acres by the government agency. That would be up five per cent on the year, but well below average trade estimates near 90 million.

Projected U.S. corn area, at 91.1 million acres, would be only up marginally from the 90.8 million acres seeded in 2020 and well below average guesses closer to 93 million.

“Short-term it will be bullish, and we’ll probably take two or three sessions for traders to take positions,” said Reilly, adding that the focus will eventually shift back to spring planting weather.

“I think the USDA is a little bit short… and there’s a lot of room for some of these crops to increase their areas.”

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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