After a year marked with volatility, trade disputes and continued erosion of faith in rules based trade, panelists at the Canadian Crops Conference, held in Toronto in March, explained challenges in the international trade order and what Canada can do to improve its standing.

How can Canada stand out in a globalized market?

“The rest of the world, the rest of the sectors of the global economy, are finally getting to know what it felt like to be agriculture for a number of years,” said Jeff Mahon, director of StrategyCorp.

He pointed to non-tariff barriers and the weaponization of trade.

Canada has sought to overcome challenges through diversification, but Mahon said this may not be as easy as some are making it out to be.

“This whole movement is driven by, you know, roughly 75 per cent of our exports going to the United States. But the last I checked, Canadian agriculture is already pretty diversified,” he said.

“Telling Canadian agriculture it needs to diversify further is like telling a cayenne pepper it needs to be spicy.”

The questions are — how Canada can grow its market share and how reliant Canada should be on bigger markets like China and India. Mahon said it will be important to recognize there may not be alternatives to those markets and Canada will likely need to continue trading in both.

Win-win thinking

In a global market currently favouring buyers, Mahon said Canada may need to find new strategies to stand out.

“In some cases, that might mean selling more processed or value-added goods,” He said. “In other cases, particularly when we’re looking at new markets in developing countries, we might want to think about bringing a bigger Canadian value proposition to them,” he said.

For example, instead of just offering commodities, Canaa can offer access to a network of capability and research.

This is already happening — for example, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent trip to India saw the promise of a Canada-India pulse research centre.

“Now you’re using empathy,” Mahon said. “You’re going to a developing country, India, and you’re saying, ‘what do you need from us?’”

In a country like India, where nutritional security is a concern, Mahon said this type of win-win-thinking could be part of Canada’s strength as a partner.

He added that he’d heard a former Indonesian ambassador suggest Canada could help countries build processing capacity, leading to “mandatory supply chains” with Canadian exports at the centre.

Mahon said he would like to see governments rephrase requests to industry to diversify and rather ask what the industry needs to grow market share.

“Diversification and growing exports isn’t going to work unless Canada fixes some of the supply side problems,” he said.

These may not be entirely an industry issue.

“The government might want to look in the mirror a little bit more if it wants to be able to figure out how to help grow agricultural exports.”

Barriers within international trade

One barrier for Canadian agri-food trade in the EU has been the challenge of adapting to regulatory frameworks. The effects of European policies, like the Green Deal, Farm to Fork strategy, can sometimes be felt in Canada.

For example, The European Commission has proposed a bill that would effectively set pesticide tolerances at zero on imported grains, oilseeds, pulses and other agricultural commodities if those pesticides haven’t been approved for use in the EU.

The EU isn’t a primary destination for Canadian grain, oilseeds and pulses, but exports can be significant some years.

European politicians have argued that this levels the playing field so growers outside of Europe don’t have a competative advantage.

The Canadian government is lobbying for predictability said Greg MacDonald, a counsellor with the Mission of Canada to the EU.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is seen as a close friend in many countries, and now the government is attempting to leverage that, MacDonald said.

People shouldn’t think the EU is “closed for business on agriculture trade,” he added.

MacDonald suggested Canada could continue to work with the EU on regulatory alignment.

“How do we make the regulatory frameworks work for Canada with the broad political overview we have that we’re the trusted and reliable partner, and the EU calls us and asks, how can Canada provide product X?”

A loss of faith in rules-based trade

The past year has also seen attacks on the role of rules-based trade.

Edwini Kessie, director of the agriculture and commodities division at the World Trade Organization (WTO) said he felt the core principles of his organization are “under attack.”

He said the non-discrimination principle and the security and predictability of market access have come into question for some.

“These have been the binding core principles of the WTO, but I think increasingly there are questions as to the effectiveness of the WTO rules in creating a level playing field,” Kessie said.

“We see in the EU specifically, regulatory and policy developments that may be shifting away from some core tenants of WTO rules, which adds to uncertainty in the grains and oilseeds trade,” MacDonald said.

Kessie said the solution is not for the global trade system to turn its back on the existing rules and encouraged stakeholders not to give up on the WTO.

“There are changes which have to be made,” he said. “And I do hope that the WTO members will come together and effect the real changes, which will strengthen the rules-based multilateral trading system.”

“The current prosperity that we are witnessing the world is because of the rules-based system,” he said, “so we need to strengthen it.”

WTO ministerial talks in Yaounde, Camaroon at the end of March struggled to make headway on questions of reform and ultimately broke down after the group could not agree on renewing a moratorium on duties for electronic transmissions like digital streaming.

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Farm groups and Republican farm-state lawmakers have sought the aid in part to support farmers with purchases of seeds, fertilizer and other expenses for next year’s growing season.

Why it matters: U.S. domestic policy influences global markets, including the prices seen by Canadian farmers

The aid package, which Trump says will come from tariff revenues, aims to support a crucial voting bloc that has largely stood by Trump despite facing billions in lost sales from his trade war with China.

Trump announced the aid at a roundtable at the White House alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and members of Congress. Growers of corn, cotton, sorghum, soybeans, rice, cattle, wheat and potatoes attended the roundtable, a White House official said.

“This relief will provide much needed certainty to farmers as they get this year’s harvest to market and look ahead to next year’s crops, and it’ll help them continue their efforts to lower food prices for American families,” Trump said.

Rollins said that $11 billion of the aid will go to row crop farmers and will be disbursed by Feb. 28. The administration is holding back the remaining $1 billion for fruits, vegetables and other crops to finalize the details, Rollins said.

Bessent said the payments will be a “liquidity bridge during a period of adjustment” to support farmers until they see benefits from Trump’s trade deals and other policies.

Amy Klobuchar, the top Democrat on the Senate Agriculture Committee, said in a statement that Trump’s trade policies have hurt farmers.

“The easiest way to give our farmers more certainty would be for the president to end his tariff taxes,” she said.

The administration had been expected to announce a farm bailout totaling as much as $15 billion in October. Rollins previously said the 43-day federal government shutdown delayed the rollout.

Lower equipment costs, more soybeans

Farmers have faced higher costs for agricultural inputs like seed and fertilizer, which the Trump administration has said it is examining. Soybean farmers expect to see their third consecutive year of losses in 2025, according to the American Soybean Association.

Trump said at the White House that he would further help farmers by eliminating many environmental regulations for farm machinery and that he would expect manufacturers like John Deere to lower equipment prices.

“Farming equipment has gotten too expensive, and a lot of the reason is because they put these environmental excesses on the equipment, which don’t do a damn thing except make it complicated,” Trump said.

John Deere did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump also said he has asked China’s President Xi Jinping to increase China’s recently negotiated soybean purchase agreement.

“I think he’s going to do more than he promised to do,” Trump said.

During his first term, Trump gave about $23 billion in aid to farmers hurt by his trade policies. Farmers are set to receive a near-record $40 billion in government payments this year, fueled by ad-hoc disaster and economic aid.

Net farm income could fall by more than $30 billion in 2026 due to a decline in government payments and low crop prices, according to an estimate from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri.

— Reporting by Steve Holland, Leah Douglas, Doina Chiacu and Bhargav Acharya in Toronto

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• The budget includes about $1 trillion in investment and posts a deficit over $78 billion.
• The government set a goal of doubling non-U.S. exports over 10 years.
• The federal government proposes to increase the AgriStability compensation rate to 90 per cent from 80 per cent and the payment cap per farm to $6 million from $3 million.
• The Advance Payments Program for canola will see $97.5 million spent over two years to increase the interest-free limit on advances to $500,000 for the 2025 and 2026 program years.
• Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada will wind down, streamline or realign some of its research to better fit government priorities. Agricultural Climate Solution Living Labs will be phased out.

The 2025 federal budget puts a hefty focus on trade diversification along with pledged investments into biofuel production and increased business risk management supports.

The “Canada Strong” budget is touted as a “plan to transform our economy from one that is reliant on a single trade partner, to one that is stronger, more self-sufficient, and more resilient to global shocks” in a federal news release.

It boasts some $1 trillion of investments. It also posts a $78.3 billion deficit.

Investments in transport and trade diversification

The Carney government pledged several efforts to guide Canadian exports, including agri-food, away from overreliance on the American market.

“Canada’s trade remains heavily concentrated with a single partner: the United States,” the budget document says. “At the same time, Canada has significant untapped potential to diversify its trade.”

The budget sets a goal to double non-U.S. exports over 10 years. It says this will generate $300 billion more in trade.

This goal includes a new strategic exports office at Global Affairs Canada, which aims to pave the way for Canadian companies and international business opportunities.

The Asia-Pacific region will be an area of particular focus for Canadian exports going forward, which the budget identifies as a “critical market for Canadian agriculture.”

The government pledged $5 billion over seven years toward a trade diversification corridors fund through Transport Canada, beginning in 2025-26.

It also promised an additional $68.5 million over four years to enhance CanExport, which encourages small and medium-sized businesses to find markets abroad by sharing the costs of international business development activities like legal expenses and market research.

Aside from Asia, the budget also promises new trade efforts in the European market, including $8 million over four years to Global Affairs Canada to deepen trade relationships with European partners, beginning in 2026-27. This same period will also see $20 million to enhance the agency’s capacity to negotiate and implement trade investment-related agreements.

Despite challenges from export markets, the budget notes Canada’s domestic-facing sectors have been faring well. It gives credit to Canadians intentionally redirecting spending to domestic industries.

Direct investments in agriculture programs

The budget promises to help Canada’s agriculture sector to “adapt and respond to economic challenges and a shifting trade environment, while positioning them to take advantage of new opportunities.”

One major investment is in the AgriStability program, where the compensation rate will be increased from 80 per cent to 90 per cent and the payment cap per farm raised from $3 million to $6 million. The government will also work to will identify barriers underrepresented groups face in accessing farm financing.

The Advance Payments Program for canola will see $97.5 million spent over two years to increase the interest-free limit on advances to $500,000 for the 2025 and 2026 program years. In September, the federal government announced it would temporarily increase the interest-free portion to $500,000 from $250,000 to help farmers facing market disruptions due to Chinese tariffs on canola.

The AgriMarketing program has $75 million earmarked to enhance diversification and promotion into new markets over five years, starting in 2026-27.

The biofuel sector will be another recipient of government investment. In a move telegraphed earlier this year, $372 million over two years will go to a Biofuels Production Incentive to support domestic biofuels producers beginning in 2026. This repurposes $175.2 million from the Clean Fuels Fund.

The government also said it intends to amend the Clean Fuel Regulations to support the domestic biofuels industry.

Changes within government bodies

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) are set to see changes and streamlining.

AAFC will reorient programming, research and expenditures to better align with the government’s overall priorities. This will include phasing out programs outside the core mandate like the Agricultural Climate Solution Living Labs and reducing scientific activities where a “more streamlined approach can be taken.”

The budget proposes several measures withing CFIA to support increased food exports, including modernized trade tools to simplify processes and reduce the risk of errors and product safety concerns overseas.

CFIA will also receive $32.8 million over four years, beginning in 2026-27, to “secure, expand and restore market access for Canadian agriculture and agri-food, fish and seafood sectors,” including looking to other countries for new trade agreements and better market access.

Other investments and projects

The budget included several other projects and legislative changes which could support the agriculture sector. They include:

• An amendment to the Farm Credit Canada act which would require regular legislative reviews to ensure alignment with the needs of the agriculture and agri-food sector.
• “Winding down mechanisms to return direct fuel charge proceeds to Canadians, small- and medium-sized businesses, farmers, and Indigenous governments,” following the cancellation of consumer carbon pricing.
• Nation-building projects to expand trade corridors, including upgrades the Port of Churchill.
• Consideration to invest in projects like ports in Quebec, rail lines in Alberta and rail infrastructure on the West Coast.
• A proposed extension of the 2005 agricultural cooperative tax rules to apply in respect of eligible shares issued before the end of 2030.
• The Contrecoeur Terminal Container Project, which will expand the Port of Montreal’s capacity by approximately 60 per cent to boost Eastern Canada’s trading infrastructure, to be completed in the first round of major nation-building projects.

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Why it matters: Canadian farmers need export markets for their products

Canadian government officials said Carney’s week-long trip might also include a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, in a possible effort to reset a previously fractious relationship worsened by an ongoing trade war.

U.S. President Donald Trump terminated trade talks with Canada via a late-night post on Truth Social on Thursday, over an Ontario political ad that used Republican icon Ronald Reagan saying tariffs cause economic disaster.

Analysts say it will be critical for Carney to explain to Asian leaders that Canada has its own agenda and is no longer as aligned with the U.S., whose president has repeatedly threatened to annex Canada as the 51st state.

“While the world economy is fragmenting, Carney needs to make it clear that Canada stands apart and is still interested in rules-based trade and globalization,” said Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

Last month, Canada signed a trade deal with Indonesia, aiming to establish duty-free access for up to 95 per cent of its goods exported there in the next year.

Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu told Reuters Canada is now targeting agreements with the Philippines, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan.

Carney will attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Kuala Lumpur, visit Singapore for meetings and attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea.

Trump also departs for Malaysia late on Friday night and will meet Xi in South Korea next Thursday, the White House said.

While Carney says he wants to diversify exports over the next decade, Canada still relies on the U.S. for about 75 per cent of its exported goods.

Fen Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Ottawa’s Carleton University, said there were far greater business opportunities for Canada in Asia than in Europe, which Carney has visited three times since becoming prime minister in March.

“The economies in Southeast Asia are much more dynamic and compatible with Canada in terms of energy and commodities trade,” Hampson said. He noted, however, that any deals Canada pursues with China will inevitably be coloured by geopolitical dynamics between the U.S. and China.

“As tensions escalate between the U.S. and China, there will be less room for Prime Minister Carney to maneuver,” Hampson said.

He suspected it would be difficult to resolve Canada’s ongoing tariff disputes with China over canola and electric vehicles, for example, without better relations between the two global superpowers.

“There’s enormous pressure on us from the Americans to not concede to their perceived rival,” Hampson said.

FORMER BANKER RAISES HOPES FOR IMPROVED RELATIONS

Most Canadians are also wary of drawing closer to China. A poll this month from Angus Reid and the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada found 59 per cent of people surveyed still view China negatively and only 14 per cent think Canada should seek closer economic ties.

Relations between Canada and China cratered during the premiership of Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau. Canadian citizens were detained and executed by the Chinese government, Canada’s security authorities concluded China interfered in at least two federal elections, andXi publicly scolded Trudeau, alleging he leaked their discussions to the press.

Analysts say Carney’s credentials as a former central banker and international experience buy him significant credibility that his predecessor often lacked.

Carney spoke with Chinese Premier Li Qiang last month and said he expected to meet senior Chinese leadership soon to “see where the trade relationship evolves.”

Still, in a region that places tremendous importance on protocols and customs, the prime minister may need to tread carefully.

“Whatever deals there are, what will be just as important is how Carney comports himself with Xi Jinping,” said Isaac Stone Fish, CEO of Strategy Risks, a business intelligence firm specializing in China.

“Appearing to literally bow to Xi will look weak and Carney certainly knows the importance of optics.”

— Reporting by Maria Cheng

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Trump, who imposed import tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and autos earlier this year, called the video ad fraudulent in a Truth Social post Thursday.

“Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had removed most of Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports imposed by his predecessor, and the two sides have been in talks for weeks on a deal for the steel and aluminum sectors.

On Friday, Trump accused Canada of trying to influence the U.S. Supreme Court as it prepares to hear arguments next month over the legality of Trump’s sweeping global tariffs.

In an early morning Truth Social post he also said former President Reagan embraced tariffs, but Reagan was a free market and free trade proponent.

Reagan voiceover criticises tariffs

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said this week that the ad from his provincial government, more than a week old, had caught the Republican president’s attention.

Ford has frequently urged Carney to take a more aggressive approach with Trump. Carney has visited Trump in the White House twice since becoming Prime Minister in March.

The ad’s voiceover consists of Reagan, a hero to many U.S. Republicans, criticizing tariffs on foreign goods while saying they cause job losses and trade wars.

“I heard that the president heard our ad. I’m sure he wasn’t too happy,” Ford said on Tuesday.

The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation said the ad used “selective audio and video”, and that it was examining legal options.

“The ad misrepresents the Presidential Radio Address (by Reagan in 1987), and the Government of Ontario did not seek nor receive permission to use and edit the remarks,” a Foundation statement said.

The video uses five complete sentences from the five-minute weekly address, spliced together out of sequence.

“When someone says, `Let’s impose tariffs on foreign imports,’ it looks like they’re doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs,” Reagan says. “And sometimes for a short while it works – but only for a short time.”

He also says: “…over the long run such trade barriers hurt every American worker and consumer”, and that the result of trade wars is that “Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs.”

Trump has raised tariffs to highest since 1930s

The ad does not, however, mention that Reagan was using the address to explain that tariffs imposed on Japan by his administration should be seen as a sadly unavoidable exception to his basic belief in free trade as the key to prosperity.

The Canadian government had no immediate comment. Earlier on Thursday, Canada sharply reduced tariff-free import quotas for General Motors and Stellantis, citing their decisions to scale back manufacturing in the country.

Trump’s trade war has increased U.S. tariffs to their highest levels since the 1930s and he has regularly threatened more duties, sparking concerns among businesses and economists.

Carney told reporters on Thursday that Canada will not allow unfair U.S. access to its markets if talks on various trade deals with Washington fail.

Next year, the U.S., Canada and Mexico are due to review their 2020 continental free-trade agreement.

Carney comments

Speaking to reporters on the tarmac before departing to Kuala Lampur, Malaysia, Carney said cannot control U.S. trade policies, but that Canadian officials were working closely with their U.S. colleagues on “detailed, constructive, negotiations” on specific sectors, including steel, aluminum and energy.

“We stand ready to pick up on that progress and build on that progress when the Americans are ready to have those discussions,” said Carney, adding because it will be for the benefit of workers in the United States, workers in Canada and families in both of our countries.”

Carney also said Canada was focused on what it can control, including investing domestically and “developing new partnerships and opportunities, including with the economic giants of Asia, which is the focus of this trip.”

— Reporting by Kanishka Singh, Doina Chiacu, and Susan Heavey; Additional reporting by Phil Franz-Warkentin of Glaicer FarmMedia

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Reuters — U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is quadrupling the tariff rate quota on Argentinian beef to 80,000 tonnes to reduce prices and protect American farmers, a White House official said on Thursday.

Why it matters: Canadian cattle ranchers are seeing record high prices through this year’s fall run, but lower U.S. prices would spread north.

The move lets Argentina ship more beef to the U.S. at a lower rate of duty at a time when U.S. beef prices have set records due to tight cattle supplies and strong consumer demand.

The plan to import more beef from Argentina has angered U.S. ranchers, who largely supported Trump in his campaigns for president. They said the government should support domestic producers and that increased imports threaten their livelihoods.

“A deal of this magnitude with Argentina would undercut the very foundation of our cattle industry,” said Justin Tupper, a South Dakota cattle producer and president of the United States Cattlemen’s Association.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins on Fox Business Network’s “Mornings with Maria” said the administration was working to support both beef consumers and ranchers.

“There is frustration on both sides. And I was with the president yesterday and he is very, very frustrated because (of) everything he’s done to cut taxes, to bring down costs,” Rollins said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday announced a plan to expand the domestic cattle herd and support American cattle ranchers, after Trump said he was working to lower the price of beef in the country.

Economists said the plan would probably not do much to lower prices quickly. U.S. cattle supplies have dropped to their lowest levels in decades after a drought burned up pasture lands used for grazing and hiked feeding costs, forcing ranchers to reduce the size of their herds.

BEEF HEADED FOR HAMBURGERS

Miguel Schiariti, president of Argentina’s Meat Industry Chamber CICCRA, told Reuters that meat exports to the U.S. consist of the country’s traditional beef cuts and meat used in the hamburger industry to lower fat levels.

“It’s good news for the industry,” Schiariti said. “Argentine beef is highly valued in the U.S. It has very good press. Argentina is rebuilding its distribution chain in the United States.”

However, U.S. analysts said increasing the amount of quota likely would not bring down beef prices for consumers much. The U.S. often imports lean beef from Argentina that is mixed with domestic supplies to make hamburger meat, they said.

Some of the beef could be served at restaurants or mixed into other food products, analysts said. This would help restaurant operators and food companies improve their margins but not necessarily lower prices for consumers, they said.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump had pledged to protect ranchers and deliver economic relief for everyday Americans.

The administration was accomplishing both by expanding beef imports from Argentina to lower consumer prices in the short term and rolling out new supports for ranchers, she said.

— Reporting by Jeff Mason, Susan Heavey, Leah Douglas, Tom Polansek and Maximilian Heath

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The Globe and Mail, citing sources familiar with the matter, said the agreement could be ready for Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump to sign at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit later this month in South Korea.

Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and autos earlier this year, prompting Ottawa to respond in kind. The two sides have been in talks for weeks on a potential steel and aluminum deal.

“We’ll see. We are in ongoing discussions with the Americans, and I wouldn’t overplay it,” Carney told reporters in Ottawa when pressed about the report, adding that he planned to meet Trump in South Korea.

The White House and U.S. Commerce Department did not respond to requests for comment outside regular business hours.

The U.S. is not ready to make any deal on Canadian automobiles or on softwood lumber, a sector which has been targeted by Washington for decades.

Canada will probably have to accept quotas on steel in exchange for a lower U.S. tariff, with critical minerals off the table in these talks, sources told the Globe and Mail.

Reuters reported earlier this week that Canada offered tariff relief on some steel and aluminum products imported from the U.S. and China, in efforts to help domestic businesses battered by a trade war on two fronts.

Carney visited Washington earlier this month and said he had “a meeting of minds” with Trump on the future of the steel and aluminum sectors.

— Reporting by Ananya Palyekar and David Ljunggren

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Some analysts think so, but what investments will be considered “defence-adjacent” (e.g., infrastructure projects such as airports, ports, telecommunications, emergency preparedness systems and other dual-use investments which serve defence as well as civilian readiness) is uncertain.

This past June member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) formally pledged to increase defence spending from two per cent to five per cent of gross domestic product. For Canada, a founding member of the alliance, that means investing some $150 billion annually.

The bulk of that money, 3.5 per cent, will go towards military hardware, personnel and other materiel required for the defence of Canada and its allies. The remaining 1.5 per cent, however, is earmarked for a wider suite of defence-adjacent initiatives, such as improvements to critical national infrastructure, innovation processes and communications.

Improving Canada’s defence capacity through direct defence investments means addressing the need for more armour and artillery, ships, improved early-warning systems and communications, personnel and much more.

Though quite general, some of the defence priorities identified by the prime minister reflect similar requests stemming from many in Canada’s agriculture sector.

This includes a large coalition of agriculture groups which penned a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney earlier this summer, asking his government to “prioritize transportation and trade infrastructure that support agriculture — including rail, port and cold chain infrastructure as well as rural infrastructure needed to reach national corridors, while at the same time ensuring the reliability of service needed to maintain Canada’s reputation as a reliable supplier of agriculture products.”

Whether infrastructure investments go to projects in regions where farmers and agribusinesses can make use of them is not guaranteed.

Ugurhan Berkok, an economist specializing in the defence sector and associate professor at the Royal Military College of Canada, says intelligence capacity and capability will be particularly important as Canada, being an Arctic nation and critical intelligence ally for the United States, seeks to improve capability in the north.

Modernizing the North American Aerospace Defense Command, for example, will require additional manpower, investments in facilities, as well as roads and other infrastructure to keep facilities in operation. Such infrastructure will likely have little to no effect on the agriculture sector given how far north they are.

But similar investments in east-west infrastructure might be a different story.

Unforeseen effects

“We are 10 countries plus three territories. Troop movements will require further infrastructure,” says Berkok, referring to the need for rapid force deployment capability across Canada (and referring to provinces as countries as Canada is a country with significant differences between regions).

Berkok says that a rule of thumb in military operations — that one deployed person requires three behind-the-scenes support individuals to operate effectively — highlights how investments in specific parts of Canada’s defence capacity necessitate additional investments downstream. The effects of both types of defence spending could have unforeseen positive effects for farmers and agribusiness, even if that spending occurs in remote areas.

But again, what exactly those investments will be is not yet known.

And the line between direct military and defence-adjacent spending is still blurry.

Berkok says doubling the number of F-35 jets, for example, requires the construction of specialized hangars to house aircraft. While the Prime Minister’s Office lists airport spending as defence-adjacent, construction of hangars capable of housing jets at airports is likely considered direct military spending. The 1.5 per cent defence-adjacent commitment is “a black box at the moment,” says Berkok.

For now, Berkok says he is watching what Canada’s European allies do. What they decide falls into defence-adjacent spending is likely to inform Canada’s approach.

Fertilizer, food and telecommunications

Al Mussel, agricultural economist, research lead for the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute and founder of Agri-Food Economic Systems, agrees that investments in Arctic infrastructure will likely have “minimal implications for agriculture.”

If, however, the government’s strategy involves developing the Port of Churchill or another salt-water port on Hudson Bay, agricultural commodities, such as grains and fertilizer, would benefit from another export location — and one more conveniently located for the delivery of critical food and mineral products to many allies and trading partners. This very thing was attempted in Nelson, Man., during World War One, although the project was abandoned in 1917.

One of the challenges with developing ports at Churchill, and elsewhere in the wider region, is overcoming transportation issues across northern muskeg and longer periods of thaw. Mussel says transport issues are what have scuttled development plans in the past.

As reported by the Manitoba Co-operator in March 2024, the port’s recent history “has been messy, with the sole rail line linking Churchill with the rest of the province plagued by service disruptions.” In 2018 the port’s American owner, Omnitrax, sold the port and rail line because it could not manage the cost of rail repairs. Better environmental conditions, lower insurance cost and a higher car cycle also make southern ports more attractive for grain companies.

There is still some interest in a northern port, however, with the premiers of Saskatchewan and Manitoba signing a memorandum this July to improve access to Churchill for the purposes of exporting prairie commodities.

Port difficulties aside, Mussel believes the strategic value of food and fertilizer export capacity should not be underrated. He cites both World Wars, when the United Kingdom was sustained largely by Canadian and American food exports, as historical lessons that appear to be “conveniently forgotten” today.

A similar point is made for fertilizer and mineral resources. During World War One, the British Empire and its allies had access to fertilizer-rich regions of the world, enabling the production of both food and explosive munitions.

Germany, on the other hand, had to rely on the production of synthetic fertilizer through the Haber-Bosch process. This proved to be a debilitating problem for the Central Powers as the war went on because fertilizer production was increasingly diverted to the development of munitions, including explosives and poison gas.

While Canada is a global supplier of potash, Mussel says it’s possible other vulnerabilities could be addressed if mineral exploitation is considered defence-adjacent spending. To that end, Ontario and other provincial governments have identified mining projects as top economic priorities.

“We know in terms of making monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate or triple superphosphate, there’s nothing in Canada. It’s a major source of vulnerability for us,” says Mussel, citing ongoing pushes for mining in Ontario’s Ring of Fire, a region with promising mineral development opportunities, which could secure domestic supplies of fertilizer as well as some of the materials required for semiconductors and other important products.

“I would hope that part of the Ontario proposal around the Ring of Fire would maybe create some potential for phosphorus and therefore phosphate fertilizer manufacturing.”

Chris Sands, director of the Hopkins Center for Canadian Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, points to the strategic value of combining Arctic port expansion with mineral extraction.

In a Substack article published just prior to NATO members announcing their commitment to spending five per cent of gross domestic product on defence, Sands argues, “Ports on Hudson Bay and the Arctic islands offer access to the north and world markets. Churchill, Man., hosts a deepwater port, an airport, and a rail line to the south and all need new investment. A new port close to Ontario’s critical-mineral rich Ring of Fire region could be a more practical route for bringing minerals to world markets than road or rail.”

And both Berkok and Mussel point to a long-standing issue across rural Canada — access to high-speed broadband — as another area where infrastructure investments for strategic purposes could bring clear dual-use benefits.

From a military perspective, Berkok says artificial intelligence and developments in advanced monitoring systems at military installations — systems built to rapidly “compute signals from beyond the horizon” — will require large servers with significant energy requirements.

Broadband communications more generally will continue to be a critical and growing requirement wherever the government decides to invest in defence installations.

Civilians living in areas long neglected by telecommunications providers, including the far north and rural parts of the country, might inadvertently find it easier to access broadband services as providers prioritize specific networks.

Canada’s powerhouse

The $150 billion invested into defence annually is no small number. Coincidentally, it’s also the amount agriculture contributes to the Canadian economy every year.

For Keith Currie, president of the Canadian Federation of Agriculture, the new NATO targets offer another opportunity to leverage agriculture for economic security against threats from maligned actors.

Historically, however, there has been a lack of recognition of how much agriculture contributes to the country’s gross domestic product — approximately seven per cent — and the potential to grow that revenue through strategic investments from the federal government.

Forestry, steel and aluminum manufacturing and the automotive sector garner a lot of attention, Currie says, yet combined do not contribute as much to the national purse nor employ nearly as many people as agriculture. He encourages policymakers to “dust off” the Barton Report (a comprehensive set of recommendations for economic investment from the federal government’s Advisory Council on Economic Growth released in 2017) which identified the agriculture and agri-food sector as a strategic area with “a strong endowment and untapped and significant growth potential.”

Currie lists several gains, including resolving general structural dysfunction at the Port of Vancouver, enabling a method of access to port infrastructure at Prince Rupert, improving storage capacity in Thunder Bay and Churchill, investing in electrical and natural gas infrastructure in farming communities, as well as rural broadband.

“Infrastructure like hydro lines are 90 years old. Farms are requiring much more power now, but most farms don’t have three-phase power,” Currie says.

And moving the Pest Management Regulatory Agency and the Canadian Food Inspection Agency into Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, rather than keeping them under separate ministries, is another potential move which could further enable agricultural developments.

“If the federal government looks at that, can we get bureaucracy to be more tuned in — not going out after regulations have been put in place saying, ‘Here’s what we did, what do you think?’ How do we make it better before putting it into policy?” asks Currie.

“Agriculture is the number one industry to be investing in in this country, and that hasn’t changed. There can be a lot done without a lot of money or in combination with different programs.”

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As part of a wider cabinet shuffle, Premier Francois Legault on Wednesday appointed Donald Martel, MNA for the riding of Nicolet-Becancour since 2012, to the ag minister’s post and as minister responsible for the Centre-du-Quebec region.

On the ag portfolio, Martel replaces Andre Lamontagne, who’d led the ag ministry (MAPAQ) since 2018. Media outlets have reported Lamontagne, the MNA for Johnson since 2014, has decided not to seek re-election and did not attend the federal/provincial/territorial (FPT) agriculture ministers’ meeting this week in Winnipeg.

Lamontagne said Monday on X it had been a “great honour” to serve as ag minister and that he would continue as MNA for Johnson. The next provincial election is scheduled for Oct. 5, 2026 if Legault does not call one before that date.

Before entering provincial politics, Martel had served as director-general and secretary-treasurer for the regional municipality (MRC) of Nicolet-Yamaska, south of Trois-Rivieres. He then ran unsuccessfully as a candidate for the Parti Quebecois (PQ) in the riding then known as Nicolet-Yamaska in 2007 before joining the CAQ.

After winning the Nicolet-Becancour seat in 2012 for the CAQ, Martel served as that party’s second-opposition ag, fisheries and food critic (2012-14, 2017) and sat on the Quebec assembly’s agriculture, fisheries, energy and natural resources committee during those stints. He also served in other critic posts for the CAQ, and as party whip (2014-18).

After the CAQ formed government in 2018, Martel served as a parliamentary assistant to the premier (2018-22) and as parliamentary assistant to the economy, innovation and energy minister (2022-25).

The post New Quebec ag minister named in shuffle appeared first on Country Guide.

This is needed to secure trade, protect economic growth “and maintain Canada’s reputation as a reliable supplier of essential products to the world,” it said.

The government’s list of projects of national significance is “incomplete without the inclusion of urgent upgrades required at the Port of Vancouver, Canada’s largest port and the country’s most critical trade chokepoint,” the organization said.

Connecting Canada with the Indo-Pacific region, the Port of Vancouver is essential to Canada’s economic growth and prosperity, GGC said. It noted that more than 50 per cent of the grain grown in Canada is exported through the port, accounting for $35 million in daily exports of grain and grain products.

The Major Projects Office (MPO) was announced by Prime Minister Mark Carney in August. The first series of projects being referred to the office for consideration was announced on Sept. 11.

Those projects include:

• LNG Canada Phase 2, in Kitimat, B.C., which will double LNG Canada’s production of liquefied natural gas.
• Darlington New Nuclear Project, in Bowmanville, Ont., which will make Canada the first G7 country to have an operational small modular reactor (SMR).
• Contrecœur Terminal Container Project, in Contrecœur, Qué., which will expand the Port of Montréal’s capacity by approximately 60 per cent.
• McIlvenna Bay Foran Copper Mine Project, in Saskatchewan, which will supply copper and zinc to strengthen Canada’s position as a global supplier of critical minerals for clean energy, advanced manufacturing and modern infrastructure.
• Red Chris Mine expansion, in northern B.C., which will extend the lifespan of the mine by over a decade, increase Canada’s annual copper production by over 15 per cent and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by over 70 per cent when operational.

“The MPO will work to fast-track nation-building projects by streamlining regulatory assessment and approvals and helping to structure financing, in close partnership with provinces, territories, Indigenous Peoples, and private investors,” said the Prime Minister’s office in a news release.

“Canada’s new government is focused on delivering major projects to connect our communities, empower Canadian workers, and build Canada’s strength,” Carney said in the government release.

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