Highlights

• Artic high pressure will dominate Prairie weather, which means a low chance of storms or significant precipitation.
• Alberta temperatures will dive from recent mild conditions before warming on Monday.
• Saskatchewan and Manitoba will see bitterly cold temperatures as Artic high pressure dominates.

Overview

The weather models did a fairly good job with last week’s forecast. Winter returned to the eastern half of the Prairies while milder conditions continued to dominate the west, especially Alberta. The models struggled a bit in missing a couple of weaker areas of low pressure that followed last week’s strong Arctic low. These dropped south out of the Arctic and brought whiteout conditions to parts of the eastern Prairies.

This forecast looks fairly straightforward. Cold conditions will continue across the central and eastern Prairies while Alberta sees cooler but not bitterly cold weather.

More weather coverage: Formation of winter storms explained

If I had to sum up this forecast in three words, they would be: Arctic high pressure. With Arctic high pressure expected to dominate our weather for at least the next seven days, the Prairies will see little in the way of storm systems or significant precipitation. Instead, expect plenty of clear skies and cold temperatures.

Alberta

This forecast period begins with Arctic high pressure sliding southward out of the Yukon and through Saskatchewan on Thursday and Friday. This will keep Alberta on the warmer side of the high pressure, but temperatures will still fall noticeably.

Daytime highs are expected to drop to around -15 to -20 C over central and northern regions by Thursday, while southern regions fall into the -10 to -15 C range. These colder temperatures are expected to persist at least through Saturday.

Over the weekend, a second Arctic high is forecast to dive southeastward through Saskatchewan and into the northern United States by late Sunday. The clockwise circulation around this high will help pull milder Pacific air into Alberta. As a result, daytime highs should moderate back toward the freezing mark over southern regions and into the -5 to -8 C range over central and northern areas by Monday.

These milder temperatures look to hold, with some indications of a stronger push of warmth developing during the second half of next week.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

This will be a short and cold forecast for Saskatchewan and Manitoba. A few rounds of Arctic high pressure are expected to dominate the weather over the next seven days or more.

The first high is forecast to drop southeastward out of the Yukon and through Saskatchewan on Thursday and Friday. The center of this high is expected to be over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba by late Friday into Saturday morning. This setup will bring very cold temperatures.

More weather coverage: 2025 one of the three warmest years on record: WMO

Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday morning are forecast to fall into the -34 to -36 C range, with some colder pockets possibly dropping close to -40 C under the right wind and sky conditions. Daytime highs over the weekend will struggle to climb above -25 to -28 C. The one small saving grace is that winds are expected to remain fairly light.

A second Arctic high is forecast to drop southeastward on Sunday, delivering a reinforcing shot of cold air. This high will then quickly move south into the United States. This will allow a more westerly flow to develop on Tuesday and Wednesday. That shift should bring some moderation, with daytime highs warming back toward more typical mid-winter values.

The post Prairie forecast: Extended cold snap as Arctic high pressure moves in appeared first on Country Guide.

KAP said the agreement in principle, which would ease tariffs on Canadian canola in exchange for reduced tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, is a welcome move for canola growers after years of trade friction.

However, KAP general manager Colin Hornby says the announcement still leaves unanswered questions for other Manitoba commodities.

“Overall, I would say it’s positive and moving in the right direction to see the tariff relief on canola products,” Hornby said. “Ultimately, we would like to see a permanent solution.”

He said KAP is also encouraged by renewed diplomatic engagement between Canada and China.

However, he said details remain unclear around canola oil.

“As for canola oil, it’s unclear. I don’t believe it was mentioned, so we’re still seeking clarity on whether canola oil is going to be impacted or not,” Hornby said.

From a Manitoba perspective, Hornby added pork remains outside the scope of the announcement.

“That’s something we’re going to continue discussing with the federal government and advocating for — the removal of tariffs on pork going to China,” he said.

The post Keystone Agricultural Producers welcomes canola tariff relief appeared first on Country Guide.

Highlights

• Alberta can expect a continuation of sunny skies and milder temperatures with little to no precipitation.
• Manitoba will see temperature ‘whiplash’ with thermometers jumping between above freezing and -20 degrees early in the forecast period.
• Over the weekend and early next week, most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba can expect a return to cold temperatures.

Overview

Last week’s expected warmer and quieter weather mostly played out as expected. It was definitely warmer, and most places across the Prairies saw at least a day or two of above-freezing temperatures.

Overall, it was a quiet week weather-wise. But, as is often the case when weak systems dominate the pattern, the weather models missed a couple of systems. These tracked through the central and eastern Prairies during the second half of the forecast period.

These systems were not particularly strong and did not bring much in the way of accumulating precipitation. However, the presence of warm air created some issues, including pockets of light freezing rain and ice pellets.

For this forecast period, we are starting with a fairly sharp ridge of high pressure over Western Canada and a deep trough of low pressure over Ontario. This setup will keep Alberta and the western half of Saskatchewan in milder air, while Manitoba sees a quick return to more winter-like temperatures.

More weather coverage: Lightning gives and takes in Prairie fields

The western ridge is forecast to push eastward and collapse southward on Thursday. While this will allow milder air to return to the eastern Prairies, it will also let slightly cooler air filter into western regions. This brief cooldown does not look like it will last long, as the weather models suggest the western ridge will attempt to rebuild over the weekend.

The strong trough of low pressure over Ontario is setting the stage for an interesting weather pattern across Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan on Thursday and Friday. A strong area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the Yukon on Wednesday before tracking eastward across the southern Arctic. On Thursday, as this low encounters the Ontario trough, it’s expected to quickly drop southward into northwestern Ontario. This is a rather unusual track for a system.

While this low will lack deep moisture, it will bring periods of snow to eastern Saskatchewan and to southern and central Manitoba on Thursday as a warm front pushes through. Expect snow again on Friday as the main low tracks by the region.

Cold Arctic high pressure will then slide southward into the eastern Prairies over the weekend and into the first part of next week. This will bring a return to average to below-average temperatures.

Over Alberta, the building ridge of high pressure looks to keep temperatures mild through the weekend, with a slow cooldown early next week as the upper ridge gradually weakens.

Alberta

With an upper ridge of high pressure dominating most of this forecast period, expect a continuation of sunny skies and very mild temperatures. Daytime highs across southern Alberta are expected to reach the low to mid-teens on Wednesday, with central and northern regions warming into the 5 to 10 °C range.

A strong area of low pressure tracking across the Arctic on Thursday will help temporarily shove the ridge southward, allowing cooler air to move in. Daytime highs on Thursday and Friday will be roughly 10 °C cooler than on Wednesday.

This cooldown will be short-lived, as weather models show the upper ridge rebuilding across the province on Saturday. Daytime highs across the south should push back toward double digits, while central and northern regions warm to around the +5 °C mark.

On Sunday, Arctic high pressure is forecast to drop southeastward into the eastern Prairies. Depending on its exact track, slightly cooler air could move back into Alberta early next week. Little to no precipitation is expected during this forecast period.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

As outlined in the general forecast, an interesting weather pattern is expected to impact Manitoba and the eastern half of Saskatchewan on Thursday and Friday.

A strong area of low pressure is forecast to track across the southern Arctic on Thursday, pushing a warm front across the Prairies. This will help maintain mild temperatures across Saskatchewan, while Manitoba experiences temperature whiplash, with readings jumping from around +5 °C earlier in the week, to near -20 °C overnight Wednesday, and then back above freezing by Thursday.

More weather coverage: Hail research hopes to benefit potato growers

As the warm front moves through, some snow is expected, with a couple of centimeters likely.

On Friday, the main low will quickly drop south to southeast from the Arctic, reaching the Lake Superior region by midday. This system will bring occasional periods of light snow along with fairly strong northerly winds. Given the recent melting and episodes of freezing rain, the existing snowpack will not be easily moved, so any blowing snow will be limited to new snowfall. At this point, the system does not appear particularly productive, with most regions expected to see between 2 and 5 cm of snow.

Over the weekend and into at least the first half of next week, cold Arctic high pressure will spread across the eastern and central Prairies. Expect plenty of sunshine and cold temperatures, with daytime highs across Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan near -15 °C and overnight lows falling to around -25 °C.

Western Saskatchewan will remain milder, thanks to persistent upper-level ridging over Alberta.

The post Prairie forecast: Mild start before winter pushes back in appeared first on Country Guide.

Highlights:

• The lows expected to dominate last week’s forecast broke down more quickly than expected resulting in a disorganized but mild weather pattern across the Prairies.
• Mild temperatures are expected to persist across the Prairies for most of the forecast period.

Overview:

Sometimes a weather system unexpectedly falls apart, and sometimes two weather systems fall apart. When that happens, the forecast can quite literally fall apart as well. This is exactly what we saw with last week’s forecast.

The two main systems that were expected to drive our weather were a Hudson Bay low and a large Pacific low. Both weakened and broke down much quicker than anticipated. The result was a rather slack and disorganized weather pattern across the Prairies during the second half of the forecast period.

This made for a not-so-great forecast but temperatures ended up being much warmer than expected, and as we will see, these milder temperatures look to stick around for at least a little while longer.

More from weather: YEAR IN REVIEW: 2025 a year of weather extremes

The a slack and disorganized weather pattern continues across much of western Canada. The upper-level flow has flattened out from west to east, helping to keep the coldest air well north of our forecast regions.

This weak flow has also struggled to push out lingering moisture and cloud cover, though with a slowly building ridge of high pressure, skies do look to gradually clear.

Over the Gulf of Alaska, the semi-permanent winter low remains in place. A weak ridge along the British Columbia coast, which is forecasted to strengthen during this period, is keeping most of the energy from that low either offshore or shunted well to our north.

This overall pattern looks to remain intact through the forecast period. This means little significant weather expected. It also means that day-to-day details will be somewhat difficult to pin down, as weak systems form, drift eastward, and then fade away, with no single system dominating the weather pattern.

Alberta

With no significant weather systems expected to impact the province during this forecast period, most regions can expect sunny to partly cloudy skies and only a very small chance of any precipitation.

A slowly building ridge of high pressure looks to bring increasingly mild temperatures to the region by the weekend. Southern areas will likely see daytime highs climb into the low teens by early next week, while central and northern regions see highs in the 4 to 7 °C range.

These above-normal temperatures look to persist right through much of next week, before the weather models suggest a return to more January-like temperatures by next weekend.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

A weak area of low pressure currently over northern Manitoba is forecast to continue weakening as it slides eastward into Ontario. This will allow for clearing skies after several days of cloud and fog. Wednesday will feature mild temperatures across the region, with most locations seeing daytime highs in the -2 to -5 °C range.

Weather models then show a slight southward dip in the jet stream later in the week, which should bring more seasonable conditions. Expect daytime highs to drop to around -10 °C by Saturday.

More from weather: The distant drivers of Manitoba winter weather

Over the weekend, a building ridge of high pressure over British Columbia and Alberta will begin to influence Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies along with a noticeable warming trend as milder air pushes eastward under the ridge.

Current model guidance suggests daytime highs rising into the 0 to +4 °C range beginning Sunday or Monday. These mild temperatures look to persist through much of the week before more seasonable conditions are expected to return by next weekend.

The post Prairie forecast: Mid-winter thaw expected under building ridge of high pressure appeared first on Country Guide.

Highlights

• This forecast period is dominated by two lows — one to the far west, and one over Hudson Bay. The relative strength of the two lows will determine temperatures across the Prairies.
• Southern Alberta can expect mild temperatures.
• Saskatchewan and Manitoba will likely see seasonable temperatures with daytime highs in the negative teens and periodic disturbances with clouds and light snow.

Overview

It’s looking like we’ll soon see the active weather pattern, which has been in place for a couple of weeks, start to break down. That doesn’t mean we are done with weak disturbances.

During the last forecast period, we saw several areas of low pressure track across the Prairies. While the forecast did a fairly good job predicting these systems, the timing, strength and exact track was a little off.

For this forecast period, we start with a large area of low pressure slowly retrograding over eastern Canada. This will eventually stall out over Hudson Bay. To the west, weather models are predicting a semi-stationary area of low pressure developing off the coast in the region of Washington, Oregon, and southern B.C.

More weather coverage: Predicting Manitoba winter snowfall

Between these two features, a northwesterly flow will cut from northwest Alberta southeastward into southern Manitoba. Areas to the north of this boundary will see below-average temperatures while regions to the south will experience near to above-average temperatures. The weather models are showing a few weak disturbances tracking along this flow, but at this point they do not look like they will bring much more than the odd flurry or a dusting of light snow.

What will be important during this forecast period is the strength of these two areas of low pressure. If the Hudson Bay low ends up stronger than currently forecast, temperatures across the Prairies will trend colder.

On the other hand, if the Hudson Bay low is weaker and the Pacific low becomes the dominant feature, the boundary between the cold and warm air will shift further north. This will allow milder air to spread across much of the Prairies.

Overall confidence in the big picture pattern is high, though confidence is a little lower when it comes to some of the finer details.

Alberta

This forecast period starts with fairly warm weather in place right across the province. Daytime highs range from around +5 °C in the south, near -5 °C over central regions, and close to -10 °C in the north. These mild temperatures look to stick around until Thursday before the upper ridge driving this warmth begins to collapse, allowing more seasonable temperatures to move in.

Along the top of this upper ridge, weather models are showing several weak disturbances pushing in from the Pacific Northwest into northern and central Alberta. These then dive southeastward across the Prairies.

These disturbances look to bring mostly cloudy skies to these regions with the chance of flurries and occasional periods of light snow. None of these systems appear particularly strong, with only the occasional centimetre or two of snow expected from any one system.

These disturbances are forecast to move through every day or two throughout the forecast period, so for some areas, total snowfall amounts could gradually add up. Temperatures during this time look to hover near average for late December, with daytime highs generally in the -8 to -12 °C range.

Across southern Alberta, temperatures look to remain fairly mild, with daytime highs in the 0 to -5 °C range for much of the forecast period.

Most of the precipitation looks to stay to the north, but a couple of weak lows are forecast to brush by. The first is expected around Sunday, with a second possible system around Tuesday. Neither low is expected to be particularly strong, with only a small chance of precipitation at this time.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Both Saskatchewan and Manitoba will be caught in the transition zone between colder air to the north and milder air to the south.

Several weak disturbances will slide southeastward in the northwesterly flow along this transition zone, with each bringing periods of cloud and the chance of flurries or occasional light snow. Snowfall amounts look to remain light — generally less than one or two centimetres with any given system.

More weather coverage: The year in review: heat, flood and fires

Temperatures look to be near seasonal for the most part, with daytime highs on most days ranging from -12 to -16 °C and overnight lows near -22 °C. Temperatures will be milder under cloud cover.

The warmest readings are expected over southern and southwestern Saskatchewan.

The main challenge with this forecast is the timing of the various disturbances, as weather models suggest one moving through every day or two. Another challenge is the exact track of these systems, which will depend heavily on the relative strengths of the Hudson Bay and Pacific lows.

All in all, it looks like 2026 is going to start off on a somewhat dull note, weather-wise.

The post Prairie forecast: Northwesterly flow brings seasonable temperatures, weak systems appeared first on Country Guide.

Highlights

• After snow on Wednesday, Alberta should have a reprieve for Christmas before another system moves in late Boxing Day.
• Snow will track across Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Christmas Day, but most of it will stay north of the Trans Canada highway.
• Saskatchewan and Manitoba will see icy temperatures to start next week, but the cold snap looks to be short-lived.

Overview

The pattern of Pacific storm system after Pacific storm system looks set to continue for a while longer. We begin this forecast period with a heavy snowfall warning in effect across parts of Alberta.

A large area of low pressure off the west coast of the United States is slowly pushing inland. In the process, it is sending piece after piece of energy eastward, which are spawning smaller areas of low pressure. These then track through the Prairies.

For this forecast period, the first of these lows is already impacting Alberta and bringing cloud and widespread snowfall. Amounts are expected to range from around 5 cm over southern regions to upwards of 15 cm over central areas.

More weather coverage: Prairie winter snowfall forecast 2025-2026

This low is then forecast to track across the south-central Prairies on Thursday and Friday, bringing periods of snow. Snowfall totals are expected to range from just a few centimeters near the border to upwards of 10 cm over central regions.

Over the weekend, a second area of low pressure is forecast to develop over southern Alberta and will quickly track eastward, bringing what looks to be another quick shot of snow. This system is expected to track a little farther south with the southern portions of all three Prairie provinces seeing mostly cloudy skies and some snow. At this point, snowfall totals look to fall within the 5 to 10 cm range.

Colder air will briefly build in behind this low, but yet another storm system—this time pushing in from the Gulf of Alaska—will help pull warmer air northward for the final couple of days of 2025. This system is expected to move into northern Alberta on Tuesday and track southeastward into southern Manitoba by New Year’s Eve.

Snowfall amounts from this system look to be light.

Alberta

Pacific energy pushing northeastward from a large area of low pressure off the Oregon coast is forecast to bring widespread snowfall to much of Alberta today. Snow is expected to blossom across the province from south to north, with total amounts ranging from around 5 cm over southern regions to upwards of 15 cm over central areas.

The system should exit the province by Thursday morning, allowing for some brief clearing before the next system begins pushing in on Friday.

Additional energy from the Pacific low will help develop another area of low pressure over southern Alberta on late Friday. This low will track farther south than the previous system, bringing snow to the southern half of the province from Friday night into Saturday.

Current indications suggest around 5 cm of snow with this system, though some areas could see upwards of 10 cm. As with the previous low, colder high pressure will build in behind it, bringing a return to sunny skies and colder temperatures on Sunday.

Yet another area of low pressure looks set to impact Alberta early next week, but this system will push into northern Alberta thanks to a large area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska.

This low will do two things: it will help pull warmer air northward, pushing daytime highs above the freezing mark, and it will bring snowfall to far northern regions on Monday and Tuesday. This low will then drop southeastward and should be out of the province by New Year’s Eve.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

This forecast period looks to start with cloudy to occasionally partly cloudy skies, along with the chance of a few flurries. A more organized area of snow is expected to develop over Alberta on Wednesday and then track eastward across the central Prairies on Thursday.

Most of the snow from this system appears likely to stay north of the Trans-Canada Highway, with central regions seeing a quick 5 cm or so before the system slides east by Boxing Day.

More weather coverage: When was the best holiday weather?

Cool high pressure will build in on Boxing Day and into the early weekend. This will bring a mix of sun and cloud and near-average temperatures. Weather models then show another area of low pressure developing over southern Alberta on Saturday, which is forecast to quickly zip through the southern Prairies on Sunday. This should bring another quick shot of snow. The fast-moving nature of this system should limit totals, with most areas seeing between 2 and 5 cm.

Cold Arctic high pressure is forecast to build in behind this low. This should bring sunny to partly-cloudy skies and near to slightly below-average temperatures to start next week.

This break from clouds and light snow looks short-lived, as yet another area of low pressure is expected to move through late Tuesday into Wednesday. This low will drop south from northern Alberta, keeping most of the snow over central and northern Saskatchewan late Tuesday and over central Manitoba on Wednesday.

Unsettled conditions look to continue into the New Year as a second, weaker low quickly follows the initial system.

The post Prairie forecast: Plenty more chances for snow over Holidays appeared first on Country Guide.

Highlights

• A strong Alberta clipper is forecasted to track across the southern Prairies, but the strength and track of the system remains to be seen.
• Alberta can widespread snow to southern and central regions on Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Friday could bring another quick shot of snow.
• Saskatchewan looks set for blizzard conditions later on Wednesday.
• Manitoba can expect blizzard conditions to set in late Wednesday and into Thursday morning.
• Cold temperatures are expected to build in behind the lows in time for the weekend.

Overview

Well, so much for a quieter pattern. While we did see a short window of quieter weather last weekend, the parade of storm systems coming in off the Pacific continued. This was thanks in part to an upper atmospheric river, which brought copious moisture to the Pacific coast.

Looking back, the weather models were not that far off, but when we are talking about weather, a couple hundred kilometers can make a big difference.

Up until the weekend things went pretty well. Cold Arctic air settled in. This brought the coldest air of the season to parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. After that it started to fall apart a bit.

The area of low pressure, which was forecasted to move in off the Pacific and then track across the northern Prairies, developed as forecasted. However, it was a a bit stronger than expected and it also tracked further south. This brough snow and freezing rain to the central Prairies early this week along with the forecasted mild temperatures.

In fact, the temperatures ended up being significantly warmer than expected with daytime highs pushing +5 C. However, most regions saw less than 12 hours of above freezing temperatures.

More weather coverage: Predicting Manitoba winter snowfall

Now we come to the current situation across the Prairies. This looks to be a potentially difficult forecast period.

Currently a strong Alberta Clipper has developed and is forecasted to track across the southern Prairies. The weather models are still bouncing back and forth on both the strength of the system and its exact track. Latest model runs have the low tracking from around Calgary on Wednesday morning and then into northeastern North Dakota by early Thursday morning.

Most of the precipitation will fall in a narrow band just to the north of the low track, so the exact track of the low is important. The strength of the low is also important as to how windy it will be and how weather systems will behave after the low passes by. Strong areas of low pressure can alter the overall weather pattern, which makes it difficult to accurately forecast what will happen once they pass by.

With that said, the weather models are showing a second, but weaker, area of low-pressure tacking across the southern and central Prairies on Friday. This should bring another quick round of snow.

Over the weekend, Arctic high pressure will build in. This will bring a return to below average temperatures, especially over the central and eastern Prairies.

In the days leading up to Christmas, the weather models are showing a couple of weak areas of low pressure tracking across the south-central Prairies. These may bring more clouds than sun, seasonable temperatures, along with the chance of flurries or light snow.

Alberta

This forecast period will start with a strong area of low pressure moving in from southern B.C. This low looks to bring widespread snow to southern and central regions on Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Currently it looks like southern regions could see up to 5 cm with amounts further north possibly pushing 20 cm before the system moves out.

A second area of low pressure is forecasted to push in from the west on Friday. This low looks to take a more northerly route, which will result in central and northern regions seeing a quick 5 cm of snow as it zips though.

Behind this low, cool Arctic air will push southwards bringing a return to slightly below average temperatures.

Early next week the weather models are showing a couple of weak areas of low pressure pushing in from the Pacific over central regions.

Confidence in these systems is low. Should they materialize, expect partly to mostly-cloudy skies in the days leading up to Christmas with occasional flurries or periods of light snow with seasonable temperatures.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Just like Alberta, these regions are starting this forecast period off with a strong area of low pressure moving in from southern Alberta. Snow is forecasted to develop in a narrow band along a warm front, which is stretching eastwards from the low.

Across Saskatchewan, expect snow to develop around noon over central regions while southern regions may be warm enough for either wet snow or rain.

The precipitation will transition to all snow later in the day as the main area of low pressure moves through. Latest model indications are for central regions to see upwards of 20 to 25 centimeters of snow with southern regions seeing 5 to 15 cm. Winds look to be strong with blizzard conditions very likely.

Conditions look to improve overnight Wednesday with sunny skies moving on Thursday as arctic high pressure briefly builds in.

Across Manitoba, the snow looks to move in by late in the afternoon on Wednesday. Where the heaviest snow will set up is still up in the air. Currently indications are it will be slightly north of the Trans-Canada highway but any small nudge to the storms track will change that.

More weather coverage: Prairie winter snowfall forecast 2025-2026

Snow looks to continue overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning. This is expected to bring around 5 cm of snow near the border, increasing to 20+ cm under the main storm track. As with Saskatchewan, winds look to become very strong with blizzard conditions developing during the evening and lasting possibly into Thursday morning.

A second weaker area of low pressure is forecasted to track across the central Prairies on Saturday. Most of the snow from this system will be over central regions of both Saskatchewan and Manitoba but southern regions will likely see another couple of centimeters. Cold Arctic high pressure will then build in behind this low bring below average temperatures and clearing skies over the weekend.

For the first half of next week, the weather models are showing two weak areas of low-pressure tracking across the central Prairies. Confidence in this part of the forecast is low, but should it materialize, these regions can expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, near average temperatures, and a chance of some flurries or occasional periods of light snow.

The post Prairie forecast: First blizzard of the year, then quiet? appeared first on Country Guide.

Highlights

• Alberta can expect a few days of unsettled conditions with widespread cloud cover and scattered flurries.
• For the weekend, Alberta should see cold temperatures before milder conditions return early next week.
• Manitoba and Saskatchewan can expect frigid temperatures towards the weekend before a brief milder period early next week.

Overview

After an active and at times chaotic stretch of weather across the Prairies, the latest model guidance is finally suggesting conditions may calm down slightly through this forecast period.

This doesn’t mean an entirely quiet pattern, but the overall setup looks less aggressive than what we have been dealing with. At the same time, there are some signs — particularly over the western Prairies — of milder air beginning to edge back in as the pattern shifts.

The weather models performed well last week. A series of smaller lows rippled southeastward from Alberta into Saskatchewan and Manitoba. These delivered waves of cloud cover, patches of light snow, and several brief surges of colder air.

Forecasters had also been watching potential for a more organized low to move out of Alberta early this week, which would affect the southern parts of the region. That feature materialized almost exactly as expected. Snow developed Tuesday across southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba, at times becoming heavy enough to create challenging travel conditions. Widespread snowfall amounts generally ranged from 10 to 20 centimetres.

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We begin this forecast window with the departing low and upper trough continuing to slide out of Manitoba. In its wake, a weak but expanding Arctic high is pushing quickly southward and bringing cooler and drier air.

Farther west, another system is expected to push inland off the Pacific before tracking southeast through southern Alberta and eventually slipping south of the border. While not a major storm, this disturbance should bring another couple of unsettled days across the Prairies, featuring variable cloud cover, occasional breaks of sun, and scattered flurries.

By the weekend, a new area of Arctic high pressure will build southeastward across the eastern Prairies, leading to clearer skies but also noticeably colder temperatures. Western areas will likely feel only a short-lived push of cold air before another round of Pacific energy arrives. This time it will take a more northerly track.

That shift in the jet stream will allow milder air to be drawn northward, leading to a brief return to above-average temperatures across much of southern and central Alberta.

Looking ahead to early next week, the energy streaming in from the Pacific is expected to organize into a more potent low that will track across the northern Prairies. Ahead of this system, a developing southerly flow will pull warmer air into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, nudging daytime highs upward into the –3 to –5°C range. While not a dramatic warmup, it will feel noticeably milder compared to the temperatures expected late this week.

Alberta

Most of Alberta can expect a couple more days of unsettled conditions as a weak, somewhat disorganized system pushes in from southern British Columbia. This disturbance is not expected to be particularly strong, but it will spread widespread cloud cover across the province along with scattered flurries or occasional brief periods of light snow.

While most areas should see only light accumulations, a few localized pockets could pick up 5 to 8 centimetres. By Friday, the low and its associated cloud and precipitation should exit the province as colder Arctic air spills southward. Daytime highs will fall into the –16 to –20°C range, with overnight lows dropping to around –24°C.

Over the weekend, attention shifts back to the Pacific as a strong low moves into the Gulf of Alaska. This system will send pieces of energy inland, which will help to spin up a developing low over northern Alberta by late Monday. As this new system organizes, its counterclockwise circulation will draw milder air northward. Southern regions should see daytime highs near the freezing mark on Monday, while central and northern Alberta climb into the –5 to –8°C range.

Most of the precipitation associated with this low should remain confined to far northern Alberta.

By Tuesday, the low will accelerate northeastward, allowing colder air to settle back into the province. There are also some early indications that yet another system could approach late Wednesday or Thursday. As always at this range, confidence is limited, and as usual we need to keep an eye on it.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

The Alberta low that brought significant snowfall to southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba will continue drifting southeastward on Wednesday.

A lingering upper trough will maintain clouds and flurries in southern Manitoba, while Saskatchewan should gradually clear as Arctic high pressure presses southward. This high will usher in some of the coldest temperatures of the season so far, with daytime highs dropping into the –20 to –22°C range and overnight lows near –28°C.

Early next week, a developing northern Prairie low will track eastward, drawing milder air northward ahead of it. This will help moderate temperatures across the southern and central regions of both provinces, with daytime highs climbing back into the –2 to –5°C range.

Unfortunately, the warmup looks brief, as colder air is projected to surge southward behind the system later in the week, re-establishing a chilly pattern.

The post Prairie forecast: Arctic highs, Pacific lows, and a short milder break appeared first on Country Guide.

Highlights

• Manitoba and Saskatchewan can expect cold temperatures to settle in.
• Alberta will benefit from some moderating influences, with colder temperatures not expected to last long.

Overview

It appears that winter — or at least winter temperatures — has settled in across the Prairies as a well-established northwesterly flow takes hold.

This pattern is drawing consistent shots of colder air southward, and for many regions it marks the first sustained stretch of wintry conditions this season. The one area that may escape the harshest cold is Alberta, which finds itself far enough west to benefit from occasional moderation. More on that in the regional breakdown.

Currently a large, slow-moving low-pressure system dominates the Gulf of Alaska. A second, broad low sits over Hudson Bay and northern Quebec. The counterclockwise circulation around the Gulf of Alaska low is trying to pull milder Pacific air northward, but the competing flow around the Hudson Bay low is pushing significantly colder Arctic air south.

The Hudson Bay system is expected to linger through much of the forecast period. It will gradually weaken as it drifts eastward but will still act as a main source of cold air.

As the Gulf of Alaska low breaks down, pieces of upper-level energy will peel off and move into the Yukon. Once there, they will be swept along in the strong northwesterly flow and each wave will race southeastward across the Prairies.

Each disturbance will bring a familiar sequence: increasing cloud cover, the chance of flurries or light snow, a short-lived warmup ahead of the wave, and then another push of colder air behind it. None of the systems appear particularly strong on their own, but their frequency will play a large role in shaping day-to-day weather.

Alberta

This forecast period begins with an area of Arctic high pressure sliding southeastward through Saskatchewan. Its track should spare most of Alberta from the coldest air on Wednesday and Thursday. Late Wednesday, a compact low is expected to dive southeast through northern Alberta. This will spread cloud cover and flurries across central parts of the province, with light snow more likely in northern regions.

Temperatures will be comparatively mild, with highs of a few degrees above freezing in the south and around –3 C in the Peace River region.

A second, weaker low will follow a similar path on Friday. This should produce more clouds and another round of flurries or brief periods of light snow across central and northern Alberta. Behind it, colder high pressure will push southward, extending cloud and scattered flurries into southern areas as well. Accumulations of snow should remain light, but a quick couple of centimetres is possible.

More from Daniel Bezte: Snowfalls heavier than 30 cm are rare

Temperatures will drop Friday, with southern highs near –5 C and central and northern highs falling into the –10 to –15 C range.

Skies should clear on Saturday as the coldest air settles in, though the chill does not appear likely to last long. A third system will move inland from the Pacific on Monday or Sunday, this time tracking farther south. It will bring another round of cloud cover and scattered flurries, but also a return to milder temperatures.

By Monday, daytime highs are expected to climb above freezing in the south and to around –5 C in central regions. Snow amounts again look limited, though the track of the system should be monitored.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

A clear and cold start is expected on Wednesday as strong Arctic high pressure continues its slide southeastward. Daytime highs will sit between –15 and –18 C, and overnight lows will be even colder. Wind chills will be a factor. The high will move off quickly, allowing moderating temperatures to arrive ahead of the next disturbance.

On Thursday, a fast-moving low will sweep out of the Yukon and across the central Prairies. Temperatures should rise slightly, with highs around –8 C on both Thursday and Friday. The system will bring cloud cover and flurries or light snow, though amounts appear modest. A second, weaker disturbance looks to follow on Friday, reinforcing cloud and scattered light snow.

Over the weekend, another strong push of Arctic air will drop south, bringing a return to below-average temperatures. Highs are expected to fall back into the –15 to –18 C range, with overnight lows dipping toward –24 C under clearing skies. Wind chills will once again be an issue.

Early next week, weather models suggest that another Pacific system may help generate a low over southern Alberta. The guidance is inconsistent regarding the track, strength, and potential snowfall, so confidence is low. Some moderation in temperatures ahead of the system appears likely, but details remain uncertain. This developing feature will need to be watched closely as model agreement improves.

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Highlights

• The Prairies will see cold and largely dry conditions, with only far western Alberta expected to see any noteworthy snowfall.
• Alberta will see cold air spill in over the weekend with daytime highs expected to drop to around the –10°C mark.
• Daytime highs in Saskatchewan and Manitoba will drop from around –3°C on Wednesday to roughly –10°C by Friday and remain cold throughout the next week.

Overview

Well, after several weeks of mild weather across the Prairies, it looks like true winter conditions are finally set to arrive.

A large trough of low pressure is digging across eastern North America. This will help open the door for cold Arctic air to flood southward.

Our previous forecast played out close to what the weather models were suggesting, though there were a few small but noteworthy deviations. First, the Pacific energy that was expected to move into central Alberta early this week did exactly that — but instead of tracking across the central Prairies, it dropped southeastward and moved through the northern United States. The low was also slightly stronger than anticipated. The Calgary region and areas to the north and east experienced that firsthand.

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The second deviation was the warmer-than-expected air mass that pushed into Manitoba and parts of Saskatchewan over the weekend. Several locations broke record highs on Sunday.

For this forecast period, the low that impacted southern Alberta earlier in the week is now moving into northern Ontario. This is helping to carve out a broad trough of low pressure across the eastern half of the continent.

To the west, another low is expected to come ashore over southern B.C. and to track southeastward through the north-central United States. It will then be absorbed into—and help to amplify—the eastern trough by the weekend.

This setup will establish a generally northerly to northwesterly flow across the Prairies, allowing cold Arctic high pressure to drop south and east beginning this weekend. This cold air mass looks set to remain entrenched through the weekend and throughout next week. As a result, most of the Prairies will see cold and largely dry conditions, with only far western Alberta expected to see any noteworthy snowfall during this period.

Alberta

Most areas will begin this forecast period with sunny to partly cloudy skies as weak high pressure builds from the north. Temperatures will run slightly below average, with daytime highs across southern Alberta forecast to be around –3°C, while central and northern regions see highs near –7°C.

On Friday, a low pressure system over southern B.C. will track to the south of the province. Depending on its exact path, southern Alberta could receive a quick 5 cm of snow by the end of the day.

Once the low moves through, colder air will spill in as Arctic high pressure settles into the region. Expect daytime highs to fall to around –10°C, with overnight lows near –15°C—colder in areas with existing snow cover.

Early next week, milder Pacific air will try to push eastward. The models are struggling to determine how far it will penetrate as it encounters the entrenched Arctic air mass.

Areas that get into the Pacific air will see temperatures moderate back toward the freezing mark. This milder push will be accompanied by several weak low pressure disturbances, which are expected to slide south along the boundary between the opposing air masses. These systems could produce periods of light snow, with most of the precipitation confined to far western regions.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

A fairly short and straightforward forecast is in place for these two provinces. As the eastern North American trough deepens, cold Arctic high pressure will begin pushing south. Most areas will enjoy one more relatively mild day on Wednesday before temperatures begin falling on Thursday and Friday.

Daytime highs will drop from around –3°C on Wednesday to roughly –10°C by Friday under sunny to partly cloudy skies.

The low pressure system coming inland from southern B.C. is expected to track toward the central United States on Friday and Saturday. Southern Saskatchewan and extreme southern Manitoba may see some cloud and possibly light snow from this system.

Over the last week or so, systems have tended to track farther south than initially forecast. However, should this one shift northward, southern regions of both provinces could see around 5 cm of snow.

After this low passes, cold Arctic high pressure will dominate from Sunday straight through the end of next week. Daytime highs will generally range from –8°C to –12°C, with overnight lows falling to around –18°C, and colder where snow cover is present.

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