Canadian lentil area is forecast to be up by 4.4 per cent on the year, at 3.829 million acres, according to the estimates of principal field crops report released by Statistics Canada on March 11. After conducting a survey of producers in December and Janyar, StatCan forecast pea area in 2024 at 3.122 million acres which would be up by 2.4 per cent on the year.

Average pre-report expectations for both of those major pulse crops had called for even larger acreage increases, given the prospects for relatively favourable returns and lower input costs compared to other options.

Large green lentils are currently trading at some of their highest price levels of the past year, topping out above 80 cents per pound in some locations, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data. New crop pricing is in the 55 to 57 cents per pound area. Red lentils have lagged their green counterparts to the upside, with spot bids and new crop pricing both around 30 cents per pound or slightly higher.

Spot bids for large calibre kabuli chickpeas can be found as high as 55 cents per pound, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire, with new crop bids around 45 cents per pound.

Chickpea area is forecast to hit its highest level since 2018 at 400,000 acres, which would be up by 26.8 per cent from the 315,500 acres seeded in 2023.

Area seeded to edible beans is forecast to increase by 12.8 per cent, hitting 359,000 acres. However, of that total, coloured beans are forecast to be up by 20.8 per cent at 297,100 acres, while white (navy) bean acres are projected to come in at their lowest level in 13 years at only 61,800 acres.

Nearby prices for white beans top out at 54 cents per pound, while black beans are trading over 70 cents per pound and pintos are trading in the 54 to 57 cents per pound area.

–– Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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Spot bids for large green lentils delivered to the elevator were trading anywhere from 60 to 76 cents per pound in mid-February 2024, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data. That compares with bids topping out at 50 cents per pound at the same time a year ago. New crop pricing opportunities are also solid, with contracts in the 50 to 57 cents per pound area well ahead of the 40 cents peer pound new crop bids on offer in February 2023.

Meanwhile, the market on red lentils is relatively steady with year-ago levels. Current spot bids of 28 to 36 cents per pound have softened over the past month compare with pricing in the 30 to 32 cents per pound range in February 2023. For new crop red lentils, available contract opportunities are topping out at 31.5 cents per pound, only 1.5 cents above levels at the same time the previous year.

A large red lentil export program from Australia has reportedly weighed on that sector, according to a report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC).

The government agency expects total seeded lentil area in the country to be up by 8.0 per cent in 2024 compared to the previous year, at 1.60 million hectares, “due to higher projected returns compared to other crops.” With a return to average yields, lentil production in the country is forecast to rise by 32 per cent at 2.20 million tonnes.

Total Canadian lentil exports are forecast to increase to 1.80 million tonnes in 2024/25, from an

expected 1.60 million in the current marketing year. However, prices are forecast to come under pressure going forward, with the stocks-to-use ratio rising from six per cent in 2023/24 to the much more comfortable level of 15 per cent, according to AAFC.

Total lentil ending stocks for 2024/25 are forecast to rise to 310,000 tonnes, from an anticipated 100,000 tonnes for 2023/24.

––Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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Only lentils saw an increase, rising slightly by 0.4 per cent from 2021-22 to now 4.32 million. Meanwhile, dry peas fell 11.8 per cent at 3.37 million aces, with edible beans down 32.1 per cent at 297,000.

Chickpeas pulled back 4.2 per cent at 177,800 acres and fababeans dropped 45.7 per cent at 72,300.

However, Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm Pro stressed a notable element in the StatCan surveys: their timing meant the numbers provided by farmers are what they hoped to plant in 2022 and may not be what they actually seeded.

“We will not know further acreage-loss changes until December, but I believe that total number is roughly 1.5 million acres,” Jubinville said.

He spread that 1.5 million mostly between spring wheat and canola each, accounting for 500,000 acres, and expects dry peas to lose another 100,000. Pulses such as lentils and chickpeas were seeded in a timely fashion, so he’s not expecting any notable changes for those.

Other pulses, such as fababeans and edible beans, may have lost some planted acres due to the soggy soil conditions throughout the Red River Valley in Manitoba, he said.

That said, he pointed to another factor on which the markets will focus.

“The market sentiment will be all about yields, getting bigger or smaller than previous ideas,” he said.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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The pulse industry will get a better idea of what will be going into the ground over the coming weeks on April 27, when Statistics Canada releases its first survey-based planting projections for the year.

“The price signals are very positive [for lentils]. They are also very positive for canola and some of the other major crops,” she said, suggesting there’s strong competition among the crops to be planted.

Also, “the rotational bind is much tighter than it used to be.”

Last month, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) projected about 4.2 million acres of lentils to be planted in 2021, down a little bit from the estimated 4.23 million to have been seeded in 2020. However to Boersch, AAFC’s projections went the wrong way.

“The shift [upward] won’t be as big as people think,” she added.

For the coming crop year, AAFC forecast production to dip from 2.87 million tonnes of lentils in 2020-21, to 2.7 million. The department also called for exports to ease, from 2.7 million tonnes to 2.5 million, but ending stocks are to hold for both marketing years at 150,000 tonnes.

While most lentil prices on the Prairies have seen pretty good gains over the past 12 months, they have remained steady during the last week, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire.

Depending on the size, Laird lentils were 22-36.5 cents/lb., with Estons at 22-34 cents; Richleas, 23-35 cents; Crimsons, 23 to 30; and French greens, 28-30.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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The federal agency reported Monday that lentil production in Alberta is set to hit a record 458,124 tonnes this year. In 2019, the province produced 167,600 tonnes. The previous record was in 2016, when 451,800 tonnes of lentils were grown.

Alberta Pulse Growers chair Don Shepert, who farms near St. Brides, about 150 km northeast of Edmonton, explained the huge increase.

“Price is number one. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit and the world wanted protein, they came after lentils and all of a sudden lentils from the countryside were being shipped,” he said, noting prices jumped from about 15 cents/lb. to 30 and upward to 35 in some cases.

“When you’re getting 15 cents/lb., nobody grows lentils,” he said.

There really hasn’t been one type of lentil that stands out this year compared to other varieties, although red lentils are easier to grow and tend to have better yields than green lentils, he said. With those differences, one benefit for green lentils is they often come with a price premium.

“It seems to be a preference of the grower,” Shepert said, adding that on the whole, lentils use up less water than other crops, making it a good option for farmers in eastern and southern Alberta.

In dry years, he said farmers can still get their lentils to produce 10 to 15 bushels per acre. With good moisture, yields will increase. He pointed to the 374,200 acres that were planted in 2019, compared to 415,300 this year.

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported lentil prices ranged from 19.5 to 30 cents/lb. delivered for Lairds, 16-24 for Estons, and 15-22.5 for Richleas. Crimson lentils garnered 18-25 cents/lb. and French were 21-23.

StatsCan, in its model-based principal field crop estimates released Monday, forecast total lentil production to come to 3.065 million tonnes this year, the second most on record. That’s a 9.3 per cent increase from its August report and a 36.7 per cent jump from 2019, when Canada produced 2.242 million tonnes.

Saskatchewan grows the bulk of the country’s lentils and is set to reap 2.605 million tonnes this year, for its second-largest crop. No other provinces grew a StatsCan-reportable amount of lentils in 2020.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“The crop is germinating well and so (buyers are) not really anxious or worried about having product available in this coming crop year,” said Marlene Boersch, of Mercantile Consulting Venture.

Thursday’s crop report from the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture rated the province’s lentil crop at 74 per cent good to excellent condition. Alberta Agriculture and Forestry’s crop report, released June 12, pegged Alberta’s lentil crop at 66 per cent good to excellent condition.

“I saw some of the lentils last week in Alberta and in southern Saskatchewan and it looked good. And so the buyers will be aware of that,” Boersch said.

Canadian lentil acreage is also weighing on the market. The Statistics Canada principal field crop areas report for March estimated Canadian producers planned to plant 4.1 million acres of lentils this year, down 4.1 per cent from last year.

Analysts had predicted the lentil acreage number would drop more due to India’s current import tariffs on pulse crops.

Large green lentil prices in Western Canada now sit around the 25-27 cents/lb. range, while small green lentils are between 24 and 25 cents/lb. Red lentils are around 17 cents/lb. Prices are down almost half of where they were last year at this time.

According to Boersch, however, green lentil bids are at a traditional price compared to where they have been sitting at for the last few years.

“You have to remember that the last two years we saw unusually high prices and that was because demand was pretty solid. A lot of that came from India obviously.”

Red lentil prices, however, are sitting low, due to Canada having a large carryover stock. Indian is Canada’s biggest market for red lentils and due to the import tariffs, sales have fallen.

“Unless (the Indian government) changes the tariffs, and I don’t really see that happening because they’ll probably have a general election in the fall… India will stay very, very tepid,” Boersch said.

India isn’t the only market where Canadian lentils are facing problems. Turkey, Canada’s second-biggest market for lentils, has been importing more lentils from Russia and Kazakhstan. As of April, Canada has exported 95,500 tonnes of lentils to Turkey, compared to 190,000 tonnes at the same time last year, according to Statistics Canada.

“Whenever you have several years of very high prices you also bring in new competition and that’s what’s happening there. And that will also stay the same for the coming year,” Boersch said.

That said, various other countries import Canadian lentils, including the United Arab Emirates, Mexico, Algeria, Sri Lanka, Colombia, the U.S. and various Mediterranean countries.

“There’s a bigger range of destinations, actually, than we have on the pea side,” Boersch said.

— Ashley Robinson writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Glacier FarmMedia company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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“Certainly in that west-central part of the province, Rosetown and other significant lentil-growing regions, we have seen some problems and crop failures due to too much moisture,” said Carl Potts, executive director for Saskatchewan Pulse Growers.

Statistics Canada has pegged lentil area for the year at 5.8 million acres — up significantly from last year’s seeded area, just under four million acres.

Potts believes the moisture problem in Saskatchewan, where the vast majority of Canada’s crop is grown, could result in a 10 or 15 per cent reduction overall.

“We’re expecting a higher-than-average amount of abandonment, or difference between seeded area and harvested area, than normal,” he said.

Heat and dryness are sorely needed to remedy the situation in many fields but Potts said some crops still look really good, despite the moisture.

“It’s really a year of significant differences with reports of very good, ideal growing conditions in some cases,” he said.

The weather at harvest time will be critical, he said, as lentils need time to dry down before being taken off.

“One of the other concerns about the moisture is disease,” he said.

Despite the challenges posed by the excess water, Potts still expects a very large crop to be harvested this year; it just may not reach the lofty targets forecast in June.

“A very high seeded area, with lower yields than usual, will still produce a significant amount of lentils.”

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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Farmers in parts of the Prairies increased lentil seedings by 48 per cent, covering a record 5.8 million acres this year, according to Statistics Canada.

While the increase in lentils was expected, the excess of moisture in some areas was not, said Greg Simpson, CEO of Simpson Seeds at Moose Jaw, Sask.

“We’ve gone from an El Nino-type weather situation to a La Nina, which implies going from a warm, dry season like we had last year to a cool, wet season like we’re experiencing,” Simpson said. “That’s not good for lentils.”

The surplus of moisture increases the chance of disease, and in some cases can kill the crop entirely, he said.

“Lentils can only stand in water for less than 24 hours until they basically die,” Simpson said.

If rain continues into harvest season, Simpson said, quality problems could arise.

“Lentils are something that’s consumed in a way that we need a No. 2 or better quality. We don’t want to be producing four million tonnes of No. 3s, that wouldn’t be a good situation,” Simpson said.

So far, excess moisture and wet spots are only taking hold of southern areas of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Simpson said, adding his lentil crops at Moose Jaw don’t have any standing water.

“What’s going to help us be successful is that 5.8 million acres. Even if 20 per cent of that land base is extremely wet… the rest of the growing area should produce a very good crop.”

— Erin DeBooy writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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The adjustments were largely in line with trade guesses — and attention in the markets is quickly turning back to weather conditions.

“The report confirmed expectations, so now it’s on to the crop and how it’s progressing,” said Bruce Burnett of G3 Canada.

The general trend of rising canola and pulse acres, and declines in wheat, barley, and oats were anticipated by the industry, he said.

StatsCan pegged canola area at 20.02 million acres, up by nearly 700,000 from the previous estimate and in line with the year-ago level. Lentils also saw a sizeable increase, rising to a record 5.84 million acres, also up by 700,000 from the earlier forecast and well above the 3.95 million seeded in 2015-16.

“I don’t think anything came out of the range of trade expectations,” said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada, adding that the immediate reaction in the futures was muted.

Weather and yield prospects will be more important moving forward, he agreed, noting “yield tends to ultimately be a more important influencer of what production is.”

Total wheat area was pegged at 23.177 million acres, which was down from an earlier estimate of 23.846 million and the 24.111 million acres seeded the previous year. Of that total, durum acres were steady at 6.1 million acres.

Barley and oats acres were pegged at 6.385 million and 2.861 million acres respectively, which were down from both earlier estimates and year-ago levels.

In addition to the declines in grain acreage, summerfallow was also revised lower. StatsCan now foresees the total cropland left unseeded this year at a record-low 1.985 million acres, which compares with the earlier forecast of 2.16 million.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow him at @PhilFW on Twitter.

Table: A recap of Statistics Canada’s acreage report for the period ended June 12, 2016. Pre-report expectations are provided for comparison purposes. Figures are in millions of acres.

* – “Total wheat” includes spring wheat, durum wheat, winter wheat remaining after winterkill.
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Poor returns per acre and frustrations over grading issues had some farmers backing away on wheat, said Jerry Klassen, manager of the Canadian office of Swiss-based GAP SA Grains and Products in Winnipeg. Meanwhile, better prospects for canola and lentils likely drew in some more acres to those crops.

Market expectations are for canola area to be up by as much as one million acres from the 19.3 million forecast in the April report, although average expectations are for a more modest increase. That compares with the 20.1 million acres seeded to canola in 2015.

For wheat, average pre-report estimates are for a decline of about 500,000 acres from the previous estimate of 23.8 million acres, with spring wheat accounting for most of the reduction.

Durum area may actually end up a bit higher than the earlier estimate of 6.1 million acres, Klassen said. Canada seeded 24.1 million acres of wheat in 2015, with durum accounting for 5.8 million acres of the total.

Looking at the pulse crops, “there’s a widespread feeling that the lentils will be higher,” added Jon Driedger of FarmLink Marketing Solutions in Winnipeg.

Some industry participants are forecasting lentil acres as high as six million, which would compare with the already record-large 5.1 million acres estimated in April and the year-ago level of 3.9 million.

However, “at the end of the day, weather will trump everything when it comes to yield and final production figures,” said Driedger.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow him at @PhilFW on Twitter.

Table: A recap of pre-report expectations ahead of Statistics Canada’s June 29 report. Figures are in million acres.

* – Total wheat includes spring wheat, durum and winter wheat remaining after winterkill.

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