Why it matters: A large fund position can sway the futures markets

The net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 42,379 contracts as of Feb. 3 (40,584 long/82,963 short). That was down by about 10,000 contracts from the previous week on a combination of short covering and new longs going on the books. It marks the smallest net short in canola in two months.

Total open interest in canola futures increased to 296,432 contracts, from 254,979 the previous week.

U.S. futures

Fund traders grew their net long position in soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade by roughly 10,000 contracts, with the net long rising to just over 29,000 contracts from about 19,800 the previous week.

The net short position in corn came in at about 80,600 contracts on Feb. 3, holding relatively steady on the week.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 81,500 contracts. The net short in hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 7,800 contracts. In MIAX spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 20,800 contracts as of Feb. 3.

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Why it matters: A large fund position can sway the futures markets

Reporting was halted during the 43-day shutdown that began Oct. 1, and backdated reports will be released twice a week over the next two months until the data is current by late January.

The net managed money long position in canola futures came in at 13,741 contracts as of Sept. 30 (47,649 long/61,400 short). That was up by about 9,000 contracts from the previous week and marks the largest net short in canola since April.

Canola futures trended steadily higher during the data blackout — a sign that the speculative money moved back to the long side in the oilseed.

Fund traders were also short soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade ahead of the government shutdown. The net short of about 31,600 contracts in soybeans as of Sept. 30 was the largest short position since early August. Soybean futures also moved higher since late September.

The net short position in corn came in at about 129,300 contracts on Sept. 30.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 96,200 contracts. The net short in hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 54,100 contracts. In MIAX spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 26,200 contracts as of Sept. 30.

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The net managed money long position in canola futures came in at 1,495 contracts as of Sept. 9 (49,392 long/50,887 short). That compares with the net long of 19,054 posted the previous week as speculators liquidated long positions and put on new bearish bets. The last time the managed money fund position was net short was in April 2025.

Open interest in the canola market was up by 11,170 contracts on the week at 244,031 contracts.

Fund traders also moved from a net long to a net short in the soybean market at the Chicago Board of Trade. The net short of about 13,400 contracts compares with the net long the previous week of 11,400. Meanwhile, the net long position in soyoil was down by about 10,000 at roughly 4,400 contracts.

The net short position in corn, at about 99,500 contracts, was up by 4,000 on the week.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 93,300 contracts. The net short in hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 52,200 contracts. In MIAX spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 24,400 contracts as of Sept. 9.

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The net managed money long position in canola futures came in at 43,434 contracts as of Feb. 11 (85,382 long/41,948 short) — a swing of roughly 51,000 contracts from the previous week’s net short position. Open interest in the canola market increased by 1,583 on the week at 263,828 contracts.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, the net long position in soybeans fell by about 30,000 contracts, to come in at roughly 42,200 contracts. Meanwhile, the net long position in soyoil was up by about 5,500 contracts, at just under 50,000.

The net long position in corn was down by about 35,000 contracts to come in at roughly 326,200

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 74,200 contracts. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 29,700 contracts. In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 10,900 contracts as of Feb. 11.

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The net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 66,349 contracts (14,664 long/81,013 short), down by roughly 21,000 contracts from the previous week and the lowest level since May 2024. Open interest in the canola market dipped by 1,579 on the week at 222,325 contracts.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, the net short position in soybeans was up by about 17,500 contracts to come in at around 58,000. Meanwhile, the net long position in soyoil was up by about 13,000 at roughly 41,300 contracts.

The net short position in corn was down by 21,400 contracts to come in at roughly 87,800.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 34,800 contracts. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 6,000 contracts. In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of 10,200 contracts as of Oct. 22.

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As of July 2, 2024, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 134,739 contracts (7,179 long/141,918 short), which was up by roughly 5,000 contracts from the previous week and the largest net short position in the commodity since March. The latest report was delayed due to the recent Independence Day holiday in the United States.

Open interest in the canola market was up by 4,479 contracts on the week at 257,885 contracts.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, the net short position in soybeans was up by about 7,200 contracts to come in at around 133,380 contracts as investors liquidated long positions. Meanwhile, the net short position in soyoil dropped by about 46,000 contracts amid heavy short covering, to come in at roughly 61,400 contracts.

The net short position in corn grew by about 50,000 contracts to come in at its largest level on record at 346,744 contracts.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 74,000 contracts. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 43,200 contracts. In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of 22,455 contracts as of July 2.

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The oilseed continued its month-long rise during the week ended March 20, gaining more than C$70 per tonne since late February. The May contract hit its highest price since Jan. 4 at C$650/tonne before closing at C$648.60 on March 20, a weekly gain of C$23.60.

Winnipeg-based commodities investment advisor David Derwin from PI Financial said a combination of the funds covering some of canola’s record net short position, other grains breaking their own trends and the start of spring has fueled canola’s breakthrough to the upside.

“As we come into the end of March, we begin a seasonal period, which can keep going until May, June or July,” he added. “We are just seeing a reversal of all that trading behaviour.”

Derwin also considered recent rises in Chicago soyoil as well as palm oil futures as supportive factors. However, the relatively small size of the canola market compared to other vegetable oils can create sharper price increases or declines.

“If funds need to exit out of soybeans, they can do a lot of buying before it can cause much change in price, whereas with canola, it just takes a little bit of buying because it’s so much smaller,” he said. “Palm oil has helped. Soyoil has helped. But canola, in many ways, is doing a good chunk on its own.”

Any news that can affect canola’s current trajectory may not occur before the oilseed rises close to C$700 per tonne in the next few weeks, according to Derwin. Whether it will reach that mark is anyone’s guess.

“All that means is that there’s not a lot of price resistance until we get into some of those higher levels,” he said.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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As of March 12, 2024, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 135,813 contracts (7,098 long/142,911 short), which was down by roughly 18,000 contracts from the record-large net short position posted the previous week.

Open interest in the canola market was down by 8,505 contracts on the week at 295,011 contracts.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, the net short position in soybeans decreased by about 13,700 contracts due to a combination of short covering and new longs going on the books, coming in at around 146,600 contracts.

Meanwhile, the net short position in corn lost about 33,000 contracts on the week to come in at roughly 252,300 contracts.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of about 78,600 contracts. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 34,800 contracts. In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 21,800 contracts.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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As of March 5, 2024, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 153,833 contracts (7,160 long/160,993 short), which was up by roughly 3,800 contracts from the previous week and a new record.

Open interest in the canola market was up by 12,307 contracts on the week at 303,516 contracts.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, the net short position in soybeans increased by about 9,000 contracts on the week to it hits highest level in nearly five years at around 160,300 contracts.

Meanwhile, the net short position in corn lost about 2,000 contracts on the week to come in at roughly 285,800 contracts.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of about 64,800 contracts. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 40,000 contracts. In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 24,200 contracts.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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As of Feb 20, 2024, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 149,049 (9,893 long/158,942 short), which was up by roughly 1,500 contracts from the former record hit just the previous week.

Open interest in the canola market came in at 300,800 contracts, which was down by 7,902 on the week.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, the net short position in soybeans increased by about 2,300 contracts on the week at about 126,700 contracts.

Meanwhile, the net short position in corn grew by about 23,600 contracts on the week to come in at roughly 328,600 contracts – the second largest on record.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of about 71,300 contracts. The net short in Kansas City hard red winter wheat came in at roughly 39,900 contracts. In Minneapolis spring wheat, managed money traders were holding a net short of around 24,300 contracts.

–– Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

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