That sounds attractive until you consider yield — while per-bushel prices may run at over double those for wheat, the recent Prairie average of 25 bushels doesn’t. The difference is especially stark in Saskatchewan, where about 80 per cent is now grown — the five-year average there is only 20.5 bushels per acre.

But flax remains a profitable option for farmers and important in rotations to mitigate insect and disease pests, says Wayne Thompson, CEO of the Flax Council of Canada and executive director of the Saskatchewan Flax Development Commission (SaskFlax).

“When it comes to rotation, farmers will definitely be looking at what’s in demand and flax fits into the rotation for breaking that disease and insect cycle. It’s still a profitable crop for farmers to consider. It depends on how everything else pencils out on the farm.”

Flax is less agronomically competitive, making it more of a specialty crop, says Bruce Burnett, director of markets and weather at MarketsFarm. But boosting yields won’t necessarily make flax more attractive to growers, because demand is flat.

“Improving the productivity in a finite demand environment that means lower prices, which means you’re less competitive with some of your alternatives,” Burnett says.

If average Canadian flax yields jumped 20 per cent, Canadian acreage would likely decline as much, he says.

“I would say the demand for Canadian product is fairly flat because of that fact that we have some competitors out there that compete fairly well into what we used to think of as our regular markets and I doubt that we can recover those to be honest,” Burnett says.

Russia and Kazakhstan are Canada’s main flax competitors, Thompson says.

“They have definitely put the pressure on Canadian marketshare around the world,” he says. “Kazakhstan is supplying a lot of the European market and right now a lot of Russian flax would be supplying the Chinese demand, so that has definitely hindered Canadian exports to the European Union and Chinese market in the last year.”

Russia and Kazakhstan are low-cost producers with a geographic advantage over Canada.

These days United States is Canada’s biggest export market for flax and that’s expected to continue, say Thompson and Burnett.

Triffid’s lingering impact

Canada’s flax exports to Europe suffered a heavy blow in 2009 when minute traces of genetically modified Triffid flax were found in shipments. Although Triffid was approved in Canada, it wasn’t commercialized over fears it could kill exports. That’s what happened.

But after several years and a lot of effort, traces of GM flax were scrubbed from Canada’s supply and exports resumed, but testing continues and growers are urged to remain vigilant.

“We want to ensure that our Canadian production remains Triffid-free,” Thompson says. “Because the detections have been zero from the information I have we are confident that the risk is very low for Triffid in our production, however, we need to maintain the testing. We encourage farmers to watch what they are growing and make sure that they’re replenishing their seed with certified seed as often as possible to continue to maintain Triffid-free production.”

Market access

Thompson says the council has been working on market access over the past year.

“The Chinese government implemented some new regulations for importing several products, including flax. We worked with our members and traders of flax to be sure they had access to that market.

“For many years, Canadian flax had easier access to the Chinese market. In recent years both Russian and Kazakhstan flax was limited as to what could be imported into China, but over the last three or four years those quotas have been increased so Russia and Kazakhstan are able to export more flax than they used to into the Chinese market.”

Meanwhile, the council, in co-operation with the Canadian government, is lobbying the EU not to introduce regulations restricting cadmium and hydrocyanic acid levels in flax.

Linseed oil is still used for industrial purposes such as paint and linoleum, but flax, which is high in heart-healthy omega-3 fatty acids, is increasingly used in the human, livestock and pet food markets.

“Consumers are demanding more healthy products and flax fits in with that very well,” says Thompson. “The demand for flax as an industrial product … is still an important market for us and a significant part of the market, but there is definitely becoming a balance between the two markets and the food market is driving the demand for flax today.”

Transition

Keeping markets open and boosting demand for Canadian flax are key priorities for the Flax Council of Canada, which has undergone five years of transition. It began in December 2017 when Richardson International, one of the council’s major funders, announced it wasn’t renewing its membership. After 32 years of operation, the council closed its Winnipeg headquarters and in 2018 announced it was restructuring its board and joining forces with the Canola Council of Canada. However, flax council members soon agreed there was a need for a stand-alone entity.

Thompson says the council represents a cross-section of the industry.

“The members are significant players in the flax trade and represent a good cross-section of who is trading and processing flax,” Thompson says. “The producers are represented through the Manitoba Crop Alliance and the Saskatchewan Flax Development Commission. There has been some growth in membership, and we will continue to explore opportunities with companies and encourage them to become members of the Flax Council of Canada.”

Agronomy resources

SaskFlax’s website (saskflax.com) has an extensive range of agronomic information. The “Growing Flax” tab has links to a comprehensive growing guide and separate sections on seeding, fertilizing, and pest and disease control. The “Flax on the Farm” section links to monthly articles on timely agronomic practices through the growing season. SaskFlax also has a staff agronomist: Anne Nerbas, (306) 664-1901, anne@saskflax.com.

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The Flax Council of Canada said Tuesday its search for a new president is underway, after Wayne Thompson announced in August he has left the position to become executive director of the Western Grains Research Foundation (WGRF), effective Dec. 1.

“Over the past two years, it has been a fantastic opportunity to serve the board of directors and be part of the Flax Council of Canada,” Thompson, who previously served a stint as a WGRF program manager, said in a release Tuesday.

Thompson has been president of the national council since 2021, and executive director of the Saskatchewan Flax Development Commission (SaskFlax) since 2014. He took the national council through what it described Tuesday as “a transition in membership and direction.”

The Flax Council of Canada, in operation since 1986, shut its Winnipeg head office in 2018. At the time it cited declining flax production and a corresponding decline in levy funding; it also saw the departure of a major funding member, Richardson International, at that time.

On Thompson’s watch, the council said, it has also worked toward “eliminating trade barriers and building strong government relations to benefit the flax industry.”

The national council’s new search for a president also follows SaskFlax’s recent decision to merge its management and office with fellow oilseed development commission SaskCanola in Saskatoon.

After Thompson’s announced departure for the WGRF, SaskFlax and the Flax Council of Canada had jointly put out a call in August for a new chief executive for the two organizations. But that joint position was not filled and the Flax Council is not a party to the new SaskFlax/SaskCanola arrangement.

The national council’s board said Tuesday it will work with Ralph Kikkert of Guelph consultancy Strive on a “thorough search” for its next president “over the next several months.” — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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“It’s clear that Canadian flax has tremendous potential, both on the farm and in the marketplace,” said Flax Council chair Erwin Hanley in a news release. “Now we’re ready to capitalize on that potential. After a period of some uncertainty, we’re well-positioned to become the next high-value addition to the Canadian farmer’s rotation.”

Under the new structure, the Saskatchewan Flax Development Commission (SaskFlax) and Manitoba Flax Growers Association will support flax agronomy and research, including the flax breeding program at the Crop Development Centre in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. Michelle Beaith was recently hired by SaskFlax to lead research and agronomic programs for the industry, according to the release.

Market development, market access and government relations services will be provided to the Flax Council on a cost-recovery basis by the Canola Council of Canada. The arrangement will provide access to professional staff and worldwide connections, while enabling the Canola Council to generate more value from the strengths of the Flax Council.

“It makes sense to share our expertise and infrastructure because we share many members, supporters, goals and challenges,” said Canola Council president, Jim Everson, in the news release. “Working together, we can get more mileage out of every trade visit and can speak with a stronger voice when we tackle issues of mutual concern.”

The Flax Council’s Executive Committee will set the direction for policy and programs, considering the best interests of all those with a stake in the future of Canadian flax, from growers to processors.

The new Flax Council Executive Committee consists of:

– Erwin Hanley, director at large and chair
– Eric Fridfinnson, representing the Manitoba Flax Growers Association
– Bo Hallborg of Viterra, vice chair
– Brian Johnson of Johnson Seeds, past chair

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Winnipeg-based, privately-held Richardson International has announced it will not provide funding in 2018 for the Canola Council of Canada and the Flax Council of Canada, nor will it renew its funding commitment for Soy Canada when it expires at the end of March.

For Richardson, the decision means withdrawing yearly commitments which have recently totalled over $1 million annually, the lion’s share of which went to the Canola Council, according to Jean-Marc Ruest, the company’s senior vice-president for corporate affairs.

The company has found the value of membership in the industry groups has fallen short of the “significant” financial cost, he said in an interview Tuesday.

Many of the issues addressed by such councils, such as non-tariff trade barriers and matters of government policy, don’t vary from crop to crop, he said, and the companies that handle, purchase and export the various oilseeds are generally the same. Such issues, he said, could be handled on a “multi-commodity” basis.

Ruest said he’s found it striking that when he takes part in a meeting on a canola issue, the other participants are generally the same as those he sees in meetings for the other commodities.

“I don’t think it’s as simple as ‘put all the organizations together and call them an oilseed council,'” he said, but he sees synergies in such a move for the organizations’ funders if there’s “good value” for the money the company is being asked to spend.

Ruest emphasized that the company’s decision is not a matter of retrenching, as it continues to fund organizations such as Cigi and Cereals Canada.

The idea of regrouping as a multi-commodity oilseeds council has been “thoroughly discussed” over the past year at the request of some Flax Council members, according to that council’s chairman, Brian Johnson.

“Through these discussions, it became apparent that the formation of an oilseed council would not materialize in the foreseeable future,” Johnson said in a Jan. 8 release announcing the council would shut its Winnipeg head office in a cost-cutting move.

The Canola Council, meanwhile, said Tuesday it “regrets” Richardson’s decision but noted its other existing core funders “remain committed to the CCC and moving the industry forward as a united value chain.”

However, the council said, its board will now lead a process to “confirm industry priorities and the CCC’s role in the sustainable growth and profitability of the sector.”

That process, the council said, “will be guided by a continued focus on building efficiencies through partnership and collaboration to make the best use of member contributions.”

The Canola Council said it would continue to follow its current 10-year plan, dubbed “Keep It Coming 2025,” with its focus on increasing canola yields and production to meet global demand.

That said, “it’s time for a thorough review of our priorities and approach to ensure it fully aligns with changing industry needs,” council president Jim Everson said Tuesday in a release.

“Our board met last week to begin this process and will be reaching out to our members and stakeholders in the months ahead.”

Four canola grower groups — the Canadian Canola Growers Association, SaskCanola, Alberta Canola and the Manitoba Canola Growers — on Wednesday reiterated their commitment to the Canola Council, noting they form its “largest funding group.”

The groups said they “fully appreciate the value they receive from the Canola Council of Canada for the substantial grower dollars they contribute,” noting the council’s international marketing and promotion efforts, its market access work, its “science-based” agronomy support and its work in raising and administering research funding.

A representative from Soy Canada was not immediately available for comment Tuesday. — AGCanada.com Network

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The Flax Council of Canada announced Monday its downtown Winnipeg office, which it shares with the Manitoba Flax Growers Association, will close effective Jan. 31.

Going forward, the council said it will “continue to operate on a reduced service basis.” Details on how the council will do so are still being discussed, council chairman Brian Johnson told Manitoba Co-operator reporter Allan Dawson on Monday.

The council, in its release, didn’t specify what “reduced service” will mean for growers, council membership or employees based at the Lombard Avenue office. The council in its release thanked its staff members for their work and said it “wish(es) them well in their future endeavours.”

The council’s staff today include financial administrator Maureen Jordan, executive assistant Monika Haley and, most recently, extension agronomist Rachel Evans, who was brought on full-time in September 2015.

The council in July announced the retirement of Don Kerr, its president since 2014, and hasn’t yet named a replacement.

The Flax Council of Canada has operated since 1986, promoting the “advancement of Canadian flax and flax products” and the crop’s nutritional and industrial uses in domestic and export markets.

Funding for the council has declined with a drop in Canadian flax production and sales, Johnson told the Co-operator.

The council is funded through a voluntary levy on flax sales remitted by Canadian flax sellers, he said, adding that not all sellers contribute.

The Manitoba Flax Growers Association and Saskatchewan Flax Development Commission, which represent flax farmers in their respective provinces, also contribute to specific council projects aimed at boosting flax sales.

“Over the course of the past year, the formation of a combined oilseed council was thoroughly discussed” at the request of some council members, Johnson said in Monday’s release. Johnson is a general manager for Manitoba flax seed producer and council levy contributor S.S. Johnson Seeds.

“Through these discussions, it became apparent that the formation of an oilseed council would not materialize in the foreseeable future. The result of this is a significant loss of funding to the council, necessitating cost reduction measures.”

In short, Johnson told the Co-operator, “we had to do it because our funding was quite dramatically cut… We’re still in a fairly good financial position, but we had to cut overhead. A lot of this [flax promotion] can be done off the premise.”

“Further dialogue will be needed to see what opportunities may lay ahead as the flax industry decides the merit of a national organization,” the council said Monday.

The council since 2013 has managed over $6.2 million in research and market development programming, with support from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and the agriculture ministries and its affiliated flax grower associations in both Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

The council noted its “key role” in managing the fallout from the 2009 discovery of genetically-modified Triffid flax seed in shipments to the European Union, a discovery which shut the door on what had been the largest market for Canadian flax exports.

The council reiterated Monday it had put up financial support toward “significant” testing protocols to help remove Triffid from the Canadian flax seed supply.

The council has also succeeded in helping to get the word out on the health benefits of flax consumption and that will continue, as will the council’s website, Johnson said, pointing to increased flax in breads, power bars and omega-3 eggs.

Canada’s flax growers harvested an estimated 1.03 million flax acres in 2017, up from about 850,000 in 2016 but down from 1.595 million in 2015.

Canadian flax production for 2017 was estimated last month at about 548,200 tonnes, down from 588,000 in 2016 and 942,300 in 2015. Canadian farm cash receipts from flaxseed production in 2016 totalled $254.2 million, down from $310 million in 2015. — AGCanada.com Network

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Average flax yields have hovered around 22 bu./ac. for many years, and although growers in some areas of Western Canada have achieved double that, it’s not always consistent, so improving yield continues to be a key focus of agronomy research.

• Read more: Tips for better flax management

Many factors contribute to yield, and researchers in Saskatchewan and Manitoba have been working on a three-year project to update agronomic practices.

“We’re focusing on the agronomy,” says Rachel Evans, extension agronomist at the Flax Council of Canada. “As varieties and equipment change, and as our climate changes, there is a need to go back and re-look at what we’re recommending.”

At the end of this year’s season, researchers will have 12 site years of data about seeding rates, seeding dates, row spacing, weed management, fungicide use and fertilizer rates, and some of these results are already creating interest.

Researchers started with what’s called an ideal plot, i.e. a combination of all of the best management practices to date as a control plot in four separate trials. One trial then looked at fertilizers and seed treatments, another at herbicides and fungicides, a third at seeding rates, dates, depth and row spacing, and the trial at crop rotation seeding into five different crop stubbles.

The trials, says Evans, are pointing out some “low hanging fruit, one of them being fertilizing appropriately based on what your background soil fertility levels are.”

Fertilize what you need

Unlike some fertility trials where researchers evaluate standard rates such as 25, 50, 100 or 150 lbs./ac. of nitrogen (N), the flax trial started with soil tests and then topped up required fertilizer to achieve a 45 bu./ac. yield.

Plots with high background nitrogen (N) didn’t see a significant yield response to added nitrogen rate, which made sense as the soil already had enough to produce that 45-bushel yield, says Evans. “But when we have low N, we see a significant response to fertilizer rate.”

It’s a valuable learning, not just for agronomics, but economics too, Evans says. “Flax is a crop that does respond, but knowing where you’re starting from is important.”

Seed early

Researchers seeded flax on the ideal seeding date of May 15, and also a week earlier, one week later and two weeks later. The latest seeding date showed a yield penalty.

“We have a lot of flexibility with flax seeding dates up until the May long weekend. After that we start to see yields drop off,” says Evans.

Flax has fairly good frost tolerance, she adds, and it is a long-season crop, requiring anywhere from 95 to 125 days to mature, so seeding early can be a strategy to help growers combine early.

Says Evans, “Seeding before the May long weekend is the major message.”

Weed management

Three weed management trials currently underway at the University of Saskatchewan are looking at herbicide options, integrated weed management strategies, and rotations, although results are still preliminary and analysis is currently underway.

In a herbicide screening trial, some new and existing products which are not yet registered for flax are being evaluated. Some are definitely showing potential, so there may be more herbicide options for flax growers coming down the pipe, says associate professor Dr. Chris Willenborg, who is heading up the weed management trials.

Another trial looking at integrated weed management strategies is finding some good results when using a higher seeding rate of 800 seeds per square metre combined with a taller cultivar and early seeding dates.

“Seeding at 800 seeds per square metre gives a plant stand around 450 plants per square metre which we believe is ideal,” says Willenborg. “We also found that the taller flax cultivar tended to give better plant populations, especially when seeded early, and this contributed to improved competitive ability.”

The higher seeding rate, tall cultivar and early seeding combination had no negative influence on wild oat seed production, but it did reduce wild oat biomass and increase crop biomass in the trials.

“A lot of flax growers probably aren’t seeding at that high rate,” Willenborg says. “Our data would suggest they should be, and also that flax cultivar is important when it comes to competing, particularly, with Group 1-resistant wild oats, which is a big problem in flax.”

The jury, though, is still out on another trial evaluating the best rotation to set up a four-year flax rotation from a weed management perspective.

Pasmo management

Flax breeding and research into pasmo management as well as fungicide timing and drought resistance are being funded through the Growing Forward 2 Agri-Innovation Program.

Although the breeding program at Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) Morden Research and Development Centre closed last year, the flax pathology program remains and is focusing on developing genetic resistance to pasmo.

In the past, the program has successfully identified and made resistance genes available to plant breeding programs for other flax diseases — rust, fusarium wilt and powdery mildew — which have been bred into flax cultivars for growers.

Scientists are working to do the same for pasmo, and have already identified some promising genetic material, although pasmo presents more of a challenge than other flax diseases because it has multiple races, so multiple genes are required to provide effective resistance to the pathogen.

“We have screened around 3,000 accessions of flax from around the world and identified sources of genetic resistance to specific races of pasmo, so for example one gene may resist isolates one, two and six, but not five and seven, while another may resist five and seven but not nine. The challenge is to pyramid those genes to get better field resistance and make that material available to the breeding program,” says Dr. Khalid Rashid, the research scientist leading the flax pathology program at Morden.

Researchers also need to combine the pasmo resistance with the key agronomic requirements such as quality and yield, Rashid says, “so it’s complicated to combine all those traits that the breeders want in a cultivar before we can release it to the grower.”

Fungicide timing

In 2006, researchers at AAFC, Morden began a 10-year fungicide trial with 15 different fungicides. The trial has identified opportunities to reduce the pasmo disease incidence and severity by up to 70 per cent. Increases in yield varied from year to year depending on the severity of the pasmo, but fungicide-treated plots yielded in a range of 70 up to 350 per cent more than the non-treated plots.

The most effective fungicides in a descending order of effectiveness were: Priaxor, Xemium, Headline, Quadris, Fox325-Sc, Acapela, Prosaro and Vertisan.

Another three-year study headed by Cecil Vera at AAFC’s Saskatoon Research and Development Centre, in collaboration with Dr. Randy Kutcher of the University of Sask­atchewan’s Crop Development Centre (CDC), has been looking at the timing of fungicides to help control pasmo in flax. The study was conducted at sites in Saskatchewan and Alberta and used three different fungicides — Headline EC, Priaxor and Xemium. All fungicides reduced disease severity, but Priaxor was often the most effective. In terms of timing, application at the early flower stage was less effective than at mid-flower, and there was no difference in disease severity when fungicide was applied at the mid-flower stage or when a dual application was made at early and mid-flower stages.

When it came to yield, Priaxor and Headline had a similar benefit for yield, increasing it on average by 23 per cent more over the control and four per cent over Xemium. Both Priaxor and the dual fungicide application delayed maturity by five days, however, which could affect seed quality.

Researchers suspect the delay in maturity could be due to the effectiveness of the fungicide treatment because pasmo often results in premature ripening and earlier harvests. Seeding flax earlier might help offset delayed maturity.

Yield was increased by over 20 per cent with a single fungicide application (average of all three fungicides) at the mid-flower stage. There was no yield benefit to two applications (one at early flower and one at mid-flower) compared to the single application at mid-flower.

“I think two applications would rarely, if ever, be economically beneficial, based on current yields and prices for the fungicide and flax,” Kutcher says.

It’s still tricky to time the application of a fungicide for pasmo because the disease can often appear late in the season when it’s too late to spray. Researchers suggest farmers make that decision based on environmental conditions, their previous experience with pasmo, flax frequency in the rotation, and proximity to adjacent flax stubble.

More drought tolerance

Flax is a shallow-rooted crop and can be particularly susceptible to drought, with roots unable to reach and access moisture further down in the soil, but to date little research has been done into drought tolerance in flax.

Dr. Raju Datla, a research scientist at the National Research Council of Canada, is working with Helen Booker at the CDC to address this unmet critical need and identify flax genotypes that can better withstand drought conditions. By applying physiological and genomics tools, and looking at the genomic sequence of flax, his team has identified potential candidate genes that appear to be specifically expressed only under drought conditions.

Greenhouse research has also revealed that some tolerant flax genotypes appear to conserve moisture better during drought periods by reducing the amount of water transpired through the stomata on their leaves, which also collect carbon dioxide for photosynthesis. “We think the guard cells that regulate the stomata pores are responding to signals that there is a threat of drought coming, and the plant has to change its program in such a way that it loses less water and doesn’t expend all the moisture it has,” says Datla, who adds the next step is to incorporate the genetic components conferring drought tolerance into cultivars for field assessment and to develop improved Canadian flax cultivars.

Flax breeding

There used to be three flax breeding programs in Western Canada, including AAFC’s program at the Morden (Manitoba) Research and Development Centre, and the private Crop Production Services (formerly Viterra) program, but only one now remains at the University of Saskatchewan’s Crop Development Centre.

Dr. Helen Booker is the flax breeder at the CDC, where priorities for breeding obviously include increasing yield, but also a number of other agronomic traits important to growers, such as timely maturity and increasing ease of harvest.

“We are looking for things that are associated with better harvestability, like a more determinate flowering or growth habit so the plant shuts down at the end of the season and doesn’t keep flowering and diverting resources away from the maturing capsules,” says Booker. “We’re also looking at things like stem dry down, so the stems will be brown and dry at the same time the capsules are mature, rather than having a green stem.”

The CDC program has released several new varieties of flax over the past few years, most recently CDC Dorado, a yellow seed variety that has 64 per cent ALA (Omega-3 rich, alpha-linoleic acid) content, the highest ever ALA content in a CDC cultivar (it should be commercially available soon through SeedNet in Alberta).

Another new CDC line — FP2513 — has just received support for registration this year. This brown flax seed line has 59 per cent ALA content and a yield potential 12 per cent higher than CDC Bethune, the most commonly grown flax variety, and up to 17 per cent higher in black and grey soil zones.

The CDC breeding program is hoping to secure the germplasm and breeding material from the other defunct flax breeding programs, says Booker. “We built on each other’s successes within breeding programs, so getting access to the AAFC and the CPS material would be good to incorporate into the pipeline, so we can keep that good material in Canada.”

The future for flax

When GM traces of Triffid were found in export shipments to the European Union (EU) in 2009, the flax industry in Canada all but collapsed. Acres went down and other countries like Russia and Kazakhstan grew more to serve that market.

Still, China has grown significantly over the past four or five years, and all indications are that it will continue to be a strong market for Canadian flax.

The U.S. is another major flax grower and thanks to a very large crop in 2015, it’s had large carryover stocks, which has depressed Canadian exports into that market over the past two years. With drought in the northern U.S. this year, however, there may be some opportunities for Canadian flax exports to increase.

“I believe we are in the process of a rebound in flax markets and prices this year, partly because of the dry weather in Western Canada and the U.S.,” says Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research in Winnipeg. “What’s unknown is the potential for growth in the domestic market, both for human use and Omega-3 animal feed, because no one has ever measured how much flax is going into those markets in Canada.”

What is known is that demand for flax as a functional food continues to grow worldwide, and Manitoba and Saskatchewan have companies in that race.

“We can see great potential for flax,” says Evans. “We have a growing middle class in many countries of the world and that growing middle class suffers from all the same middle class problems that we have in North America with obesity, and hypertension and other cardiovascular diseases. If we can continue to work and develop markets in those areas, I think that will be an advantage to us down the line.”

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Statistics Canada predicted in a production report, released Aug. 31, that both Saskatchewan’s and Canada’s flax production this year would be 13.7 per cent less than in 2016. However, its forecast was based on data collected in July.

With most of the flax crop just now starting to be harvested, many are wondering if making estimates now might be a bit early.

For Shane Stokke, who farms near Watrous, Sask. and chairs the Saskatchewan Flax Development Commission, the days ahead will tell the real story, but he figures StatsCan is going to be pretty close.

“Our area is not a bad flax crop. It doesn’t look too bad, but some areas are dried out and I think their yields are going to be down. So (the StatsCan report) might be a bit on the low side, but I don’t think it’s that far out.”

Yields overall look variable, he added, but on the quality side, many producers should be happy if current expectations prove true once harvest begins and if the weather stays good.

StatsCan’s numbers have production in Saskatchewan, by far the largest flax-producing province, falling to 409,000 tonnes this year from 473,700 in 2016.

Nationwide, flax production is expected to fall to 507,000 tonnes from 588,000 tonnes a year ago, according to the StatsCan report. Manitoba’s production was predicted to fall 41.7 per cent to 34,800 tonnes from 59,700. Alberta’s production was forecast to come in at 63,500 tonnes this year, up 16.3 per cent from 54,600 in 2016.

In a separate report on available stocks in Canada, StatsCan reported an inventory carryout of 191,000 tonnes as of July 31, compared to 277,000 tonnes at the same time in 2016.

For Rachel Evans, extension agronomist with the Flax Council of Canada, an average flax yield around the Prairies could be about 17 bushels per acre, which would be below typical prairie yields of 22 bu./ac.

She blamed the yield loss on dry conditions in parts of Saskatchewan, but pointed out the key flax-growing areas are outside the worst of the drought-hit regions, with significant flax acreage typically in east-central Saskatchewan, which was OK for moisture.

“I don’t anticipate yields to be really low there. Certainly Manitoba, with our limited acres, predictions from Stats Canada were about 20,000 acres off from what actually went in the ground.”

Evans felt estimating the size of the flax crop now is premature, given that the flax harvest has just barely begun, but said the crop she has seen looks good so far.

That’s based on conditions in Manitoba, which did not experience the same moisture problems as Saskatchewan and Alberta, she added.

For Stokke, the real challenge for flax growers is going to be competition from the large crops expected in Russia and Kazakhstan.

“I think they are going to be the dictator on the price,” he said, adding he would expect prices to stay at around $11.50-$12.50 per bushel through most of the 2017-18 marketing year.

— Terry Fries writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

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Demand on the ingredient side of the flax market has been steady, said Mike Popowich of processing firm TA Foods at Yorkton, Sask.

“But we’ve experienced a bit of a slowdown on the exports. There are ongoing issues with processed flax in China,” and the Flax Council of Canada and government officials are working to resolve the issue, he said.

China in July last year began rejecting flax shipments due to a lack of import standards, the council said in a release.

The restriction still applies to food-grade flax, to date.

China has never had a specification for processed flax for human consumption, “but they started to make something about it over the last year, which has kind of hindered our exports there on cleaned or milled flax,” Popowich said.

That has created a volume build up in the North American market, though the market has held mostly steady, despite the stockpiles.

“Prices are fairly stable, they’ve pretty much flat-lined, since harvest, the supply is still out there right now,” Popowich said.

As for up-and-coming crops, most look generally OK, though market watchers are paying attention to areas of concern in southern and southwestern Saskatchewan.

“That’s led to some speculation, and some farmers holding onto their flax,” Popowich said.

Delivered elevator flax prices in Western Canada are sitting between about $11 and $12 per bushel, according to data from Prairie Ag Hotwire.

— Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s latest Seeded Acreage Report is expecting 1.1 million acres to go into the ground this year, putting pressure on seed supplies, and putting the integrity of that supply at risk, the council says.

They’re concerned saved flax seed could contain the unapproved GM variety Triffid, which has been largely purged from the system.

“If you choose to plant your own farm-saved seed, we strongly encourage producers to test your farm saved seed prior to planting to maintain the integrity of the seed supply,” the council wrote in a release.

“Flax producers were instrumental in the elimination of Triffid from the system, but it is critical that producers continue to use a known source of Triffid-free seed.”

They’re also reminding growers most new flax varieties are protected by Plant Breeders’ Rights and can only be sold by an authorized dealer.

Certified seed is still in good supply, and the council is recommending growers returning to flax start off planting certified seed.

They say using certified seed comes with a number of benefits to growers, including:

• assurance of the genetic purity of varietal traits,
• strict standards governing the presence of weed seeds, and
• good germination standards and germ testing prior to sale.

They also note that using bin-run seed includes risks, such as:

• storage damage that can impair germ potential,
• the risk of germination impairment through pre-harvest glyphosate applications, and
• the risk of re-contaminating the seed supply with old varieties such as Triffid.

More information on the reconstituted seed program can be found on the council’s website. Information on seeding considerations for 2017 can also be found there.

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Last year, the amount of flax seeded in Canada was down about a third from the previous growing season. As a result, stocks are short, despite large carryover.

Demand, however, is on par with bigger crop years, said Don Kerr, president of the Flax Council of Canada.

Earlier this year, Europe changed its maximum reside limit for the herbicide haloxyfop, curbing demand for Russian and Kazakhstani seed, creating a gap that Canada’s crops are able to fill.

Exports to China are expected to stay the same as last year, Kerr said, estimating that level at around 350,000 tonnes.

“Even though we’re seeing increases with some of that Kazakhstani seed leaking into China,” he said.

Kerr expects demand from the U.S. to be lower, as the country increased production last year.

That demand has put delivered elevator flax prices between $11.75 and $12.28, up $1.23-$1.44 per bushel on the year, according to data from Prairie Ag Hotwire. New-crop prices are in the $12.50 a bushel range in Western Canada.

Profitability is a key factor farmers consider when deciding what crops to grow, which means flax may see increased acres this year.

“I think there could be a rebound in acres in Manitoba this year, simply because prices have improved,” Kerr said, adding flax in the province will likely be competing with soybeans.

However, growth in Manitoba is expected to be limited, especially compared with Saskatchewan.

A large majority of flax acres is grown in Saskatchewan, and last year’s sharp declines were partially due to large pulse production.

India is expected to implement an edict that would require Canadian pulses to be fumigated at the port of origin, hurting demand from the country.

“So we may see a bit of an increase in flax acres in Saskatchewan this year,” Kerr said.

“And we might see a slight reduction in pulses because we saw such a huge increase last year.”

Flax production will likely not hit the pace seen two years ago, Kerr added. “I think it’s going to be tough to get back to that level.”

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s most recent grain and oilseed supply and disposition report pegs this year’s estimated seeded flax acreage at 1.05 million acres, compared with last year’s 930,000.

— Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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