The 2026 FCC Food and Beverage Report states sales among food and beverage manufacturers are predicted to rise by 0.8 per cent while volumes fall by 0.7 per cent, the fourth straight year of decline. It notes sales growth will likely be driven by higher prices, not higher consumption.

WHY IT MATTERS: With trade tensions still disrupting global supply, prices could fluctuate this year, affecting consumers’ choices.

FCC chief economist Craig Johnston said this disparity speaks to the issue of consumer purchasing power.

“Higher food prices over the past several years are really weighing on households’ budgets,” he said in an interview. “They’re making more cost-conscious decisions.”

“This is actually a headwind for consumption and a headwind for volumes.”

He said any upstream changes will no doubt filter down to Canadian producers. Some challenges are shared across sectors.

“When we think about common elements, you can think about the tariffs, the elevated input costs, generally,” he said.

Margins are tight across the sector, including for farmers.

“We’re not seeing massive improvements on margins within the food and beverage manufacturing sector to pre-COVID levels, and we’re not necessarily seeing that filter through to a broad-based increase in margins for primary ag.”

“The industry in general is still going through this adjustment period” he said, “and we do expect that to continue to 2026.”

Trade tensions still a factor

Canada will continue to grapple with trade uncertainty this year, including the recent instability caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

Forecasts for costs of goods in the Food and Beverage Report were made before the crisis, “meaning that if the commodity price surge persists beyond just a few months, there would be upside risks to those estimates.”

FCC had expected pressures on some inputs, such as cattle and hogs, to ease from 2025 highs, but surging energy prices due to the conflict make that less likely.

Costs of production up

Production costs for food and beverage manufacturers increased by two per cent in 2025, driven mostly by raw material costs.

“The increase in raw material costs was driven by disruptions that constrained availability and raised prices,” the report states.

“Some examples from 2025 include avian influenza impacts on poultry … tariffs that increased the cost of imported aluminum packaging and historically low cattle herd sizes across North America.”

Costs across sectors

The report also breaks down costs associated with sub-sectors of food and beverage processing.

In grain and oilseed milling, sales were uneven in 2025 but improved by the fourth quarter. 2026 shows signs of a rebound in sales and volumes.

Large carryover of canola stocks is expected to keep prices under pressure in 2026. Canola prices are expected to fall by 3.1 per cent in 2026.

The report suggested demand for Canadian maple syrup and honey has continued to increase in the global market.

In the dairy sector, 2026 will likely see a 3.6 per cent increase of product manufacturing sales over 2025. Processors are also expected to pass along costs from the producer price increase for unprocessed milk to consumers.

In the meat manufacturing sector, FCC forecasts sales up 1.6 per cent and volumes down by 5.6 per cent.

Tight supplies of live animals, due largely to disease outbreaks, drove prices up in 2025. According to the report, “2026 will likely see another year where price, not volume, drives sales upward.”

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Producers made strong bids for available land, increasing values by 12.2 per cent in Manitoba, 11.4 per cent in Alberta and 9.4 per cent in Saskatchewan, says the 2025 Farmland Values report from Farm Credit Canada.

In its report, FCC said agricultural land values were “resilient” last year and defied expectations of a downturn.

“The market remained supported by farmland’s long-term investment appeal, tight supply and strong competition from expansion-focused producers,” says the FCC report, released March 24.

“The Prairie provinces drove much of the year’s average increase (across Canada).”

Overall, the value of cultivated land jumped 9.3 per cent from coast to coast, but provinces outside of the Prairies saw weaker gains or losses in value:

• British Columbia, a 1.7 per cent decline.
• Ontario, 2.2 per cent increase.
• Quebec, 4.8 per cent gain.

FCC attributed the modest rise in Ontario to farmers becoming picky. They were willing to pay high prices for top-quality land but avoided marginal properties.

A similar situation has developed in Saskatchewan. Expanding producers are driving demand for the best land in the most productive regions.

In 2025, price increases in northeastern, northwestern and east-central Saskatchewan were around 12 per cent. Those regions produce the highest yields for key crops like canola and wheat.

In west-central Saskatchewan, where yields are lower, farmland values increased 4.8 per cent in 2025.

The average price of cropland in northeastern Saskatchewan is getting close to $5,000 per acre. That’s a massive jump from 2019, when average values in the northeast were $2,000 per acre.

Farmland realtors on the Prairies have also noticed this trend of robust demand for fertile land.

“Good land in a good area is still going up,” said Tim Hammond of Hammond Realty in Biggar, Sask.

In southern Alberta, dryland prices surged upward by a 16.4 per cent in 2025. Irrigated land, which is now at $20,000 per acre in the province, played a role in the value gains in southern Alberta.

As irrigation districts have expanded, dryland acres close to irrigated land have become more valuable, FCC said.

A major theme in the FCC report was the shortage of land for sale in multiple provinces and regions.

This could be part of an ongoing trend, for the last 15 years, where retiring farmers rent their land instead of selling.

Whatever the reason for the shortfall of properties on the market, it’s clear that supply is “tight”, said J.P. Gervais, FCC executive vice-president of ag operations.

“This is something that has been certainly documented last year, and if I’m not mistaken, the year before,” he said.

“One of the overall drivers of farmland values, how tight the supply, does matter when (it) comes to the valuations that we’re currently seeing…. Generally speaking, very tight availability of farmland (for sale).”

Pastureland also higher

The FCC report had data on pastureland values, which saw a 5.2 per cent increase across Canada thanks to stronger prices for beef cattle over the last few years.

Gains were much higher in Alberta’s Peace region and northern B.C., where values climbed 17 to 18 per cent.

Across the Prairies, Saskatchewan saw the largest increase in pastureland prices of 7.6 per cent.

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The farm lender maintained its prediction that GDP growth would slow to around one per cent.

The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has restricted the flow of oil and gas from the region, has pushed commodity prices to multi-year highs, FCC economist Krishen Rangasamy wrote in a March 18 report.

Pros and cons

The jump in prices could spell opportunity for Canada, Rangasamy said.

WHY IT MATTERS: Higher fuel and fertilizer prices for farmers today could be followed by higher borrowing costs in the future if core inflation persists.

“Given its high historical correlation with commodity prices, nominal GDP (which matters for government revenues) is likely to also perk up.”

If commodity prices stay high, the federal government and governments in resource-rich provinces such as Alberta or Newfoundland and Labrador could see higher revenues. That doesn’t mean governments will spend more, Rangasamy said, but there’s potential for a spending-related GDP boost.

However, fertilizer prices are among those surging due to the conflict which is weighing on the ag sector. Higher prices for fuel can also push up inflation and erode consumers’ buying power.

Trade war damages

Last year, Canada’s economy saw the worst performance since the 2020 pandemic recession — growing just 1.7 per cent, Rangasamy wrote. Export volumes fell on an annual basis for the first time in five years.

Government and consumption spending offset weaknesses in housing and business investment. However, based on a slumping household savings rate, consumers also dipped into savings to maintain lifestyles. This means Canadians have little cushion to absorb future shocks.

“With no end in sight to America’s trade war … look for trade and business investment to act as a drag on Canada’s economy again in 2026,” Rangasamy said.

Government and consumption spending may not provide as much of an offset this time. Rangasamy noted the government has telegraphed caution related to public spending. While ambitious public projects are in the works, that spending isn’t expected this year.

Interest rates and the loonie

If commodity prices stay high long enough, businesses may be forced to raise prices which could lead workers to demand higher wages.

“That could potentially trigger a wage-price spiral,” said Rangasamy.

The Bank of Canada could pre-emptively raise interest rates to prevent core inflation from taking off. However, he predicted the bank would stay in “pause mode” for several months.

FCC predicted the Canadian dollar would trade in the 72- to 74-U.S. cent range for most of the year, but acknowledged currency volatility could temporarily take it outside that range.

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“Which is not sustainable,” the organization said in a statement to Glacier FarmMedia. 

“Access to additional credit does not address the underlying issue.”

FCC announced it would extend its Trade Disruption Customer Support Program, originally established in early 2025 in response to tariffs. Agriculture and food borrowers will be able to receive a new or additional credit line of up to $500,000 to modify terms and to defer principal payments on existing loans.

FCC will now also provide support to help producers and agribusinesses “manage financial pressures caused by unexpected market shocks,” Friday’s statement said.

Middle east conflict spikes input prices

Fertilizer prices have soared since the Iran war began at the end of February and led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping, disrupting urea and sulphur supplies from the Gulf.

As a result, farmers around the world are struggling with fertilizer costs as the northern hemisphere spring planting season approaches.

“I would be faced with financial stress and I would have to maybe not buy as much fertilizer, or I would not plant what I was supposed to plant,” said FCC chief economist J.P. Gervais. “The liquidity in the credit is to actually, hopefully help businesses not having to deviate from what they believe is in their best interest long-term.”

Looking for immediate action

Grain Growers of Canada argues that the federal government should reduce farmers’ costs by dropping fertilizer tariffs.

Canada placed 35 per cent tariffs on Russian fertilizer levied in response to Russia’s war against Ukraine. That tariff stopped imports of Russian urea, which had previously made up more than 63 per cent of Canadian imports according to a 2025 report from Grain Farmers of Ontario.

“Canada should also explore targeted, temporary support tied to fertilizer affordability, activated during periods of extreme price volatility, to provide a short-term safety net for farmers while longer-term solutions are implemented,” Grain Growers of Canada said.

-With files from Reuters

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Realtors in Saskatchewan have noticed a shift in the market, where some properties are going up in price and others are not.

Buyers are still willing to pay a premium for productive land, but demand is much softer for mediocre cropland.

Tim Hammond, founder of Hammond Realty in Biggar, Sask., described the current situation as a “split market.”

WHY IT MATTERS: After 15 to 20 years of rising values, Canada’s land market may have entered a new phase.

“Good land in a good area, is still going up,” he said.

“Average land in an average area, it’s struggling. It is going sideways and in some cases it’s going down…. I haven’t seen a mix like this since I started in 2002.”

Hammond made his comments March 10 during a webinar hosted by Dan Aberhart, who runs Aberhart Ag Solutions in Brandon, Man.

Aberhart invited Hammond and Trent Klarenbach, a market analyst who turns Klarenbach Research in Saskatoon, to discuss farmland values on the Prairies.

A snapshot of prices will be revealed next week, when FCC releases its annual report on farmland values March 24.

In 2024, values increased 9.3 per cent year over year across Canada, including a 13.1 per cent jump in Saskatchewan.

It’s possible that FCC will report another increase in 2025, but realtors like Hammond say something has changed.

Two or three years ago, when he put cropland up for tender, Hammond would receive 10 offers.

The top three or four bids would be very close on price.

“What we’re seeing now, instead of getting 10 offers, we’re getting two or three,” he said.

“And the spread between the top bid and second highest bid is five, 10, 15 percent.… I’ve always said, land is only worth as much as the second highest bid.”

Other experts have made similar comments about demand and buyer interest.

It remains strong in certain geographic pockets, but less so in other areas.

“Farmland is still very much a regional market,” Justin Shepherd, senior economist with Farm Credit Canada, said last August.

“There could be areas that see (more) farmland value growth … but there could be other areas where there is (less) competition for that farmland, where you could see things slow down.”

Similar market for U.S. farmland?

A comparable situation has developed in the United States, where buyers are driving up the price of productive cropland while demand is weak for less fertile land.

Sellers of land, outside of the best areas, might need to lower their expectations, said a January report from Farmers National Co., a firm that manages farmland across the Midwest and Northern Plains.

It’s not necessarily a buyers market, but buyers are getting picky, said Colton Lacina, Farmers National Co. senior vice-president of real estate operations.

“(They) are carefully assessing soil quality, the percentage of tillable acres, water access and how a parcel fits into their current operations. Those details matter more than ever.”

A plateau in values would be a significant change for Canadian producers, landowners and the psychology of investors because the market has increased for nearly 20 years.

An FCC report on historical farmland values indicates that the average price increase was 10.7 per cent annually from 2007-23 across Canada.

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Justine Hendricks, President and CEO of FCC unveiled the project Tuesday at the Future of Food conference in Ottawa.

The Let’s Grow Canada website’s stated purpose is “to shine a light on the people and stories behind Canada’s agriculture and food system and (grow) a national movement that invites Canadians and global partners to help shape our food future.”

The initiative has four main goals: Build pride, bring more talent to the sector, bring investment within Canada and grow trade.

Hendricks told media that one of the most consistent requests she gets in her role is “Justine, if you could only help tell the story,” of Canadian agri-food.

She described Let’s Grow Canada as “a movement, not a marketing campaign.”

“If you do a campaign, you set a budget, you say, we’re going to spend X amount, we’re going to blast as much as we can and see what you generate,” Hendricks said. “With the movement being more grassroots, we’re going to build it up over time.”

Strengths and challenges

In building the initiative, FCC identified eight major strengths in the Canadian food system, including food security diversity and sustainable practices.

“We said, okay, well, if Canada’s ag and food industry was a brand, what type of brand would it be? (And) what’s the challenge with the brand?” Hendricks said.

Challenges included fragmentation and the reliance on the U.S. as a trading partner.

“If Canada wants to show up differently, how should we show up?” Hendricks said. “We said, you know, we should be proud to be kind of the superhero of food for around the world.”

“We can still be humble (and) kind, but we’ve got the ingenuity to lead, the creativity to make something happen, and we should stand up and do that.”

FCC touts unified approach

The platform is also intended to become a resource for those seeking more information about topics like food sources, new agricultural technologies, or careers.

Hendricks said the unified approach will help the involved organizations get their message out.

“You will not see the FCC logo on any of this,” she said. “We’re kind of creating the environment so that the industry can come together and we can really amplify our message and what we do, but from a unified voice.”

She said she is confident in this approach because it will tell the story of Canadian agriculture “with those that do it every day.”

“Instead of trying to replace some of the great work that’s out there, we’re creating this platform for people to come and showcase what they do,” she said. “We really want to create that buzz out there, so that people have a new energy around the sector.”

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“We’re the breadbasket of the world,” said Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food Heath MacDonald MacDonald. “We need to lead in that aspect … and this is just a start.”

Macdonald announced the investment at Canada’s Future of Food day in Ottawa. The announcement builds on a previous commitment of $2 billion from FCC.

WHY IT MATTERS: Canadian agriculture and food businesses have historically struggled with a lack of venture capital.

FCC is set to deploy $325 million in new capital this fiscal year, the lender said in a news release. It said the cash will “bring new innovation to Canadian farmers through investments in innovative Canadian businesses, construction and project finance opportunities, and early-stage ag-tech companies.”

Darren Baccus, executive vice-president of Agri‑Food, Alliances and FCC Capital, said the investment will strengthen domestic food security and accelerate Canada’s rise as an agricultural superpower.

“By bringing this coalition together, we’re crowding in the capital needed to scale breakthrough solutions and deliver the next generation of innovation directly to Canadian producers.”

A ‘compelling investment proposition’

MacDonald credited Justine Hendricks, president and CEO of FCC, for beginning the process that would lead to this investment.

“The first time I met Justine was in Saskatchewan. I then, shortly after in July, flew to Toronto and she set me up on the meeting with seven investors,” MacDonald said.

“I believe two of them were U.S., five were Canadian venture capital (and) equity firms, and that started the discussion.”

Power Sustainable Lios, a food-focused private equity firm, is one of the 20 companies to pledge investment.

”Canada’s food sector represents a compelling investment proposition,” said Jonathan Belair, the firm’s managing partner, in a news release.

Canadian food and agriculture benefits from strong fundamentals like a “globally respected production base and a growing pool of innovative companies, the news release said.

Struggle for venture capital

In early 2025 FCC’s investment arm, FCC Capital, pledged $2 billion of investments into agtech innovation by 2030. Hendricks at the time said investment dollars for the agtech sector have been “scarce and not scaled to meet the increasingly sophisticated needs of the sector.”

Canadian agriculture and food companies have historically struggled with a lack of venture capital.

—With files from Geralyn Wichers

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The farm lender is forecasting hog prices slightly above 2025 figures and well above five-year averages, wrote FCC senior economist Justin Shepherd in a Jan. 28 report.

Cattle prices support hogs

Cattle futures set new records in 2025 and continue to hover near highs.

“With cattle futures near record levels, this provides support for the hog market as a substitute protein,” Shepherd wrote.

“Demand for hogs is being fueled in part by domestic hog slaughter that increased in 2025 after multiple years of consolidation and is expected to be up slightly again this year.”

Pork prices have not risen as quickly as beef at the grocery store, which has made it a more affordable protein choice for shoppers. Since 2022, pork prices have risen by more than 13 per cent, chicken prices rose by almost 22 per cent, and beef prices rose by nearly 38 per cent.

“That at least partially explains the uptick in pork consumption last year,” Shepherd said.

Meat prices are expected to remain high in 2026 according to Canada’s Food Price Report, released in early December. Report lead Sylvain Charlebois noted that Canada was short of chicken at the time, which he attributed to high beef prices. However, he said he expected the poultry sector to recover “eventually.”

Lower feed costs improve margins

Ample feed grain supplies are expected to hold prices below the five year average throughout 2026, FCC predicted.

Canadian farmers produced record crops in 2025, which is pushing grain and oilseed prices down. Cheap American corn may also become competitive in some regions.

Additionally, large domestic supplies and trade restrictions with India are likely to lead to some peas being diverted into the feed market, Shepherd said.

“When we add in strong hog prices, it suggests Manitoba and Ontario farrow to finish hog margins could reach their highest levels in five years.”

Risks ahead

Shepherd noted that disease is an ever-present threat for Canadian hog farmers. Other parts of the world are dealing with outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF), porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS).

“If Canada can continue to keep PED and PRRS under control, and keep ASF out of the country, producers can feel optimistic given strong hog prices and manageable feed costs,” he said.

The sector also faces potential effects of U.S. voluntary country of origin labelling rules, which took effect on Jan. 1. FCC said live hog exports to the U.S. look to remain steady for now.

In November, a Manitoba pork marketer said some U.S. processors had already shut their doors to Canadian pigs. Pigs were moving, but it wasn’t always easy.

The renegotiation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement (CUSMA) also remains a wildcard.

Exports were also down in the first 10 months of 2025 — falling six per cent below the five-year average.

“This is highlighted by the large drop in shipments to China,” wrote Shepherd.

China imposed a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian pork in early 2025, along with duties on canola, peas and seafood. An agreement between Beijing and Canada has led to tariffs being dropped or eased on those products, but the levy on pork remains.

“Continued success is being found, however, in Japan, Mexico and South Korea where Canada’s pork exports continue to grow at a solid pace,” Shepherd said. He noted trade to the U.S. has been “strong and stable” year to year.

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The Bank of Canada recently called the Canadian economy resilient in the face of trade woes and kept its key policy rate steady at 2.25 per cent. It noted that third quarter annualized GDP grew by 2.6 per cent, much more than expected.

However, a recent FCC report predicts Canada’s economy decelerating due to factors like interest rates, ongoing trade uncertainty and voluntary country of origin labelling (vCOOL).

“The message there was basically that maybe there’s a little bit of complacency in the markets,” said Krishen Rangasamy, FCC’s principal economist and the report’s author.

Interest rates

He said there is a chance interest rates will go down next year. This is likely to affect farmers, who are heavy borrowers. The report cites several complications for residential construction, which accounts for about eight per cent of Canada’s economy.

“Even though the Bank of Canada, in our view, should probably lower rates next year … long rates are probably not going to change a whole lot from here.”

Rangasamy said this is related to Canada’s bonds being closely linked to U.S. treasuries.

“’Oh, the Bank of Canada is lowering rates. Why isn’t my mortgage rate falling? I’m about to renew, and it’s still high.’ Well, then that’s the answer, right? So, you’re borrowing at the long end of a yield curve, not at the short end.”

The five-year bond rate is at three per cent. Five years ago in 2021, it was one per cent.

“Which tells you if you originated five years ago in 2021 and you’re going to renew in 2026 what’s going to happen? You’re going to renew at a higher rate, a way higher rate than what you originated at,” said Rangasamy.

“Whoever is going to renew next year a fixed rate product at the longer end of a yield curve, it’s going to be painful.”

Business confidence decreasing

Investment intentions over the next year are also predicted to drop, as the report shows business confidence decreasing in Canada.

The cloud that is uncertainty with the U.S. is expected to continue to cause problems.

“At the moment it looks like it’s going to stay there for 2026,” Rangasamy said.

The report predicts that “as the impact of the AI investment boom fades, cracks formed by the White House’s policies on tariffs and immigration will become more visible stateside.”

This could lead to a drop in demand for exported Canadian goods, 70 per cent of which are purchased by the U.S.

“Any drop in U.S. demand will have repercussions on this side of the border,” the report states.

One factor could help ease trade tensions: negotiations on the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) are set to begin next summer. Rangasamy said it is possible, even likely CUSMA will be renewed. Until anything is certain, the cloud will linger.

“That’s one of the reasons we’re not that optimistic about the rebound of business investment in Canada,” he said. “One thing businesses don’t like is uncertainty, and that U.S. trade policy is certainly wreaking havoc in that regard.”

Country of origin labelling

Another potentially aggravating factor is voluntary country of origin labelling (vCOOL) rules in the U.S., set to come into effect Jan. 1.

Canadian commodity groups say the vCOOL ruling could limit their access to American markets.

“There’s anecdotal evidence and some newspaper clippings that some farmers are already seeing a drop in demand from the U.S. ahead of that vCOOL being implemented,” said Rangasamy.

He said previous similar regulations harmed Canadian agriculture, particularly the hog sector.

Mandatory country of origin labelling (mCOOL) “went away in 2015, and we recovered a little bit, but we never went back to pre-mCOOL (mandatory country of origin labeling) levels,” he said.

“If you look at history, there’s a precedent where U.S policy basically causes permanent damage, even if it was it was removed afterwards,” he said. “If you take this as a guide, well, that’s not a great sign.”

Weathering the storm

Though FCC’s forecast may look dire, Rangasamy said it is “not all doom and gloom” and offered some suggestions for producers in the year ahead.

The first piece of advice is to boost productivity as much as possible.

“Make sure you’re lean, because … you’ll be in a better position to weather the storm,” he said. “You can’t control the external forces. What you can do is control your operation. So stay lean, seek productivity improvements wherever you can.”

Knowing costs of production is also crucial, as it can help producers take advantage of market movements. Rangasamy used the recent volatility of canola prices as an example:

“Markets sort of overreacted for two, three months,” he said. “Let’s say you’re a canola producer, so you know what your cost of production is, and as soon as you see prices go up and up towards a certain level, you say, ‘hey, I can lock this in.’”

“All this is a good thing, but also very important is to know your cost of production, to take advantage of volatility, because there’s always volatility in commodity markets, but more so with trade policy.”

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In an internal FCC email obtained by the Western Producer, the agency said it had not been consulted on text in Budget 2025 that said most farm operators are “older white men.”

The post, promoting a story only accessible by subscription, claimed FCC would review lending to black, LGBTQ or female farmers. It cited a cabinet notice, which is typically a confidential document.

However, the information is available in Budget 2025 documents and does not indicate FCC would lend more or less often to under-represented groups or at the expense of others.

Why it Matters : The federal government has promoted gender equality and diversity throughout society for the last 10 years and regularly reports on its progress. The post led some to believe FCC was changing its business model.

The email, sent to Prairie FCC leaders, acknowledged the post led to online discussion, and staff should know that all primary producers have been and remain priorities.

“I cannot stress enough that primary producers are the heart of FCC’s business. We are not changing how we do business, nor are we changing our lending criteria,” said the email.

It added Finance Canada had not taken into account FCC’s current offerings when writing the summary in a Budget 2025 appendix.

A gender-based analysis contained in the budget, per the Canadian Gender Budgeting Act, looked at the expected impacts of new measures to advance equality.

Among the new measures are legislative amendments to the Farm Credit Canada Act to require more regular reviews “to ensure alignment with the needs of the agriculture and agri-food sector.”

“Farm operators are predominately older white men, and farm families tend to have higher average incomes compared to all Canadians,” said the document.

“Traditionally underrepresented groups such as women, youth, indigenous, 2SLGBTQI+, and black and racialized entrepreneurs may particularly benefit from regular legislative reviews to better enable Farm Credit Canada to align its activities with their specific needs.”

FCC already offers loan programs to women, young farmers under 40 and Indigenous people.

The email said FCC staff continues to build the business with new and existing customers.

“FCC will continue to support all primary producers and the sector overall,” it said.

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