The limitations on growth in their native Germany prompted them to look for a new place to call home.

After visiting Nova Scotia in 2019, and deciding on a magnificent location, Christiane Teerling, her husband Jan and their two boys planned the move for early 2020.

And then, the pandemic happened.

“In early March 2020, we started packing one of our first containers to ship from Germany to Nova Scotia. We heard that there was something going on, but nobody really was aware of what was going to happen. So, after the container was on its way, we figured, we had to get to Canada quickly,” recalls Christiane.

They landed in Canada on the first day of lockdown.

“After a couple weeks, we figured out that the container was not coming to Halifax. Turns out they had unloaded the ship in Montreal. And this was just the beginning of an unfolding nightmare,” says Christiane.

They had also left their oldest son in charge of the farm back in Germany, not expecting that the world would be “closed” for so long.

Christiane remembers that when they first visited Nova Scotia, they landed in 60 centimetres of snow in the middle of the night. “The worst time of year you can imagine to visit a farm,” she says, laughing. “But when we arrived at the address and our navigation system said, ‘You have reached your destination’, that’s what it felt like. This is it. This is home.”

Find out how they made it through the pandemic, built up the business and what’s next for Lindsay Lake Farms at country-guide.ca/features/the-country-guide-podcast.

The post A modern pioneer adventure appeared first on Country Guide.

In this article, we dive deep into how the family made those decisions. Admittedly, on your own farm, you may never imagine making such moves, but that isn’t really the question. Instead, is the process that the family used one that you could adapt on your own farm for evaluating and creating action plans?

“For me, it was a real journey,” says Greg Haskett, a father and third-generation farmer at Bright, Ont., an hour and a half west of Toronto, where the family has specialized in goat milk, raising 1,400 goats a year. 

Greg’s late father, Alvin, had bought a farm in 1967 where he raised beef and pigs, shifting solely to pigs and making them the primary source of his revenue.

The early 2000s were challenging in the pork sector, just at the time when Greg and his dad were talking about farm succession and Greg’s plans for the future.

“I was tired of the fluctuation in the market of the pig business,” Greg recalls. “We had tired facilities and Dad and I were tired.”

He and his father were stressed about money too. “We were losing the momentum of this dream we had been targeting,” Greg says. “Conversations between Dad and I became a reflection of the negativity and the frustration we were both feeling. It wasn’t healthy.”

A series of unfortunate events did not help, including a devastating barn fire and then Greg and his wife’s separation. The stress of financial worries and the future of the farm played a role in the breakdown of the marriage.

Something had to give. “I told my parents we had one year to figure out the business, or I was leaving,” Greg says. “And then, a few months later, Dad had his heart attack.”

It was a serious setback, taking Alvin out of commission for three months and leaving Greg on his own to manage operations. That spring, the government came out with a sow buy-out program and Greg told his parents he was selling his half of the herd. 

PIVOT 1

A new farm strategy

“I told them I didn’t know what they were going to do, but that I was done. I’d had enough.”

Greg had taken an Advanced Agricultural Leadership course and it opened his eyes to different options and opportunities for diversification. “That’s what really led to a journey of self-discovery and the realization that I was living my dad’s dream, but not my own.”

By this point, Greg says it was clear they had lost their focus and their purpose. He considered switching careers altogether and becoming a professional firefighter. He even took a course in the States to pursue this but their insurance required the family to rebuild their facilities if they were going to get the claim they were pushing for. That helped Greg and Alvin find their way back to the farm and to one another. “He told me he couldn’t do it on his own and asked me what I wanted to do,” Greg recalls. “That’s when we started exploring new opportunities.”

They knew they didn’t want to go back to pigs. Instead, their strategy would be to remain flexible. So the Hasketts rebuilt two multi-purpose buildings — taking a year and a half before deciding on this. “I looked at our husbandry skill set and felt it could be applicable to another livestock and so I investigated a number of different avenues, things like rabbits, sheep and dairy goats,” Greg says.

His research led him to look at Ontario’s shifting demographics and especially at what immigration might mean for the province’s food needs. “Most of the world is used to having goat products as a dietary staple, and I felt this could mean increased demand.”

Greg and Alvin were both able to see the potential of the goat dairy industry. The business case looked solid too. “There was a low barrier to entry into this segment of agriculture and I felt I had transitional and analytical skills to make the best decision for us at the time, based on the research and due diligence I had done.”

Greg had researched more traditional options including pork, beef and poultry. “It was always the same size pie,” he says, “but being part of the goat industry seemed like it could have the potential to generate a bigger pie as there was growth and innovation potential.”

To diversify their farm, Greg and his father first tried their hands at both sheep (for meat) and goats (for dairy). Changes to farm infrastructure and facilities were not significant for this to happen. The barn rebuilds started in fall of 2009 and by March 2010, they received their first dairy cheque. During this time, Greg visited goat farms to learn about their operations and spoke to numerous goat dairy farmers, creating a new network while leveraging existing relationships for the introductions.

One finding, though, is that there were few transferable skills from pigs to dairy. They were going to have to be open to learning new systems of feeding, milking and cropping. “The execution of learning new systems is a huge undertaking,” he found. One thing he didn’t realize? It takes 10 goats to produce the same amount of milk from 1 cow. “All of this meant additional time and labour for us. Trimming 40 feet instead of four, it takes 10 feet of bunk space versus two — it is larger numbers of animals that produce less but require the same amount of care.” 

He also had to learn about growing good-quality hay, which had a learning curve of its own, plus breeding and animal protocols. “I was able to notice different animal behaviour and signs, but caring for a baby pig versus a baby goat is completely different — feeding them is different and managing them is different.”

After two years with both sheep and goats, Greg shifted full-time to goat dairy, based on a surge in Ontario demand, but he also continued learning that what works on paper doesn’t always work in practice.

“If I could do it over, I would go and work on a goat farm first, which I didn’t do. I simply visited farms and talked to goat dairy farmers but that was not enough.” 

That isn’t Greg’s only advice to other farmers thinking about pivoting, such as not having a huge debt load as a good first step.

“You also need to have staff for any level of scale, which means being a good leader and manager,” he says. It is also about having good relationships with your nutritionist, vet and banker to achieve your goals, especially when looking for financing. “And you need enough margin to survive the inevitable mistakes.”

“You need perseverance and the ability to find the right resources and mentors,” he adds. “You need to continually ask everyone you are talking to, ‘What am I not smart enough to ask you right now?’”

PIVOT 2

A new market

Cheryl, who had a career in sales and leadership facilitation, married Greg in 2014 and plunged into the life. Because of Greg’s first pivot, that meant goats. The farm was committed to goats. Its future was as a goat dairy.

Then, in 2017, came a big scare. One of the province’s two largest dairy milk buyers stopped buying Ontario product. They had found a cheaper source, and although this wasn’t the Haskett’s buyer, it had a significant impact on the entire industry, affecting everyone, some just not as badly as others.

Greg and Cheryl were still being paid while many others lost their operations completely. “It was gut-wrenching,” Greg says.

It also pushed the couple to do some serious thinking about their business model. Importantly, Cheryl and Greg started doing strategy work together. Cheryl used her facilitation skills to push Greg to answer questions about the farm’s future.

Aside from paying the bills and finding stability, Cheryl had another question: Did Greg know what he really wanted?

He had an answer. “I’ve always wanted to get closer to the customer and bring something all the way to the store,” Greg said. He wanted to develop a branded product. “I just have no idea how to do that.”

The two started brainstorming. The goat cheese market, they decided, was too competitive. So they focused on one of Greg’s values — making memories. “When you are crying, you pick up ice cream,” Cheryl said. “When you are laughing or having a celebration, you pick up ice cream.”

They also knew many people are lactose and casein sensitive and can’t digest cow’s milk, so they asked if goat milk ice cream could be the next big thing. They even dreamed of taking it one step further, creating their own “Ben and Jerry’s” plant with a factory and tasting rooms.

Maybe it could work. They developed a basic strategy plan, didn’t tell anyone (not even Greg’s parents) and silently went to work to determine if it would even be a feasible and marketable possibility.

Cheryl gathered (cow) ice cream recipe books, a cream separator and a little ice cream machine and began playing in the farm kitchen. Being a bit of a foodie, she went through a dual-credit Cooks Pre-apprenticeship program and turned to local farmers for ingredients to create non-traditional ice cream flavours using lavender, wine and beer.

The recipes were a hit with friends and family, and it was now time to make the dream a reality.

“We needed to figure out market feasibility, pricing and target markets,” Cheryl says. They also knew they couldn’t rely on family and friends to tell them the truth. She and Greg did an entrepreneur’s program at the University of Guelph focused on market analysis and market readiness, and understanding the viability of the product and whether people would buy it.

Cheryl also went to ice cream school at the University of Guelph and travelled to Chicago for a course in gelato making. “I had to understand the science behind making ice cream — it’s a very technical product. It’s sensitive to make, to store, and to move and distribute.”

Leaning on mentors she met through a program at Innovation Guelph, Cheryl began connecting with distributors and learning about pricing. One key learning was that it wouldn’t be feasible for them to open their own factory. Through their connections, though, they found a co-packer in the Greater Toronto Area to begin the production journey — a CFIA-certified plant that would allow them to ship across Canada, not just in Ontario.

“We gave them a very challenging product,” Cheryl says. “It wasn’t like normal ice cream; they were using lavender oil and local beers and wines, but we found a way to make it work.”

The Hasketts’ plan was coming together — recipes and production were in place; new hurdles were being tackled. Greg and Cheryl even settled on a name — Udderly Ridiculous — when they found themselves one day saying, “this is ridiculous.”

Bringing a product to market required strong sales skills which Cheryl already had, and she understood marketing to a degree, but not food packaging. They worked with a designer to create the label that reflected the voice of their product and their values and then incorporated both French and English. They secured bar codes and learned how to verify their ingredients, but once that was complete, there were new curves about ordering the packages and minimum quantity orders. “For a pint, you have to order a minimum of 10,000 units; for single-serve, 50,000; so then we had to get a shipping container to house all of our packagings. There was a lot of investment sitting there not generating any money with empty packaging waiting for sales to happen.”

In 2019, Udderly Ridiculous Goat Ice Cream was launched at select stores and events across Ontario, including the Royal Winter Fair, where it won three ribbons. Their marketing plan was based on sampling and education at events, which worked for most of 2019 until COVID-19 struck a few months later.

Events stopped. In-person sampling stopped. Canadians stopped browsing. For shoppers, the idea was to get what you need and then get back home as fast as possible.

“The events, alongside social media, had been our biggest marketing strategies,” Cheryl says. “So we knew we needed to get the brand voice out there in different ways through media attention.” The wins at the Royal helped generate buzz for the brand and so they entered their product in Grand Prix Canada. It ended up winning best dessert. “That really helped to build brand credibility and allowed us to talk to who we needed.”

While Greg continued to grow the farm dairy operations, Cheryl used her stakeholder relations skills to navigate relationships with distributors and cold storage facilities. “Once we were in Pusateri’s in Toronto, we were able to leverage that to get invites to have other conversations with other people.”

The Hasketts’ product is now across Canada (minus Quebec and the East coast) and is available in more than 300 stores.

Success has come from a sound approach, Greg and Cheryl believe. They have brought on mentors to fill in the gaps, and they never stop looking for ways to improve. “We are always looking for ways to do things differently … there are always pivots to be made and minor adjustments. And we do that every single day.” 

“It’s a real process to bring the product to life,” Greg adds. “But if you can find someone you are aligned with and share the same values, it can be so dynamic.”

Cheryl agrees. Their skills need to complement, like her visionary skills with Greg’s executionary muscle, and they have also needed to know how to keep going forward, she says. “We laugh and say failure is not an option, so we just figure it out … It’s all ongoing; a constant roller coaster.”

Next, a pandemic pivot

The pivot to goats was a major feat for the Hasketts. So was getting their Udderly Ridiculous brand of goat ice cream on shelves across Canada.

Then came the pandemic and a whole new set of opportunities and challenges for Cheryl and Greg, especially since the pandemic made it so much more difficult to get in front of potential customers to get them to sample their ice cream.

The question was, should the Hasketts go for online sales of a product that melts?

They decided quickly. The costs would be too high. But that left them having to brainstorm other options to increase market awareness and ensure their product stayed on store shelves. Their biggest fear was getting kicked off of grocery shelves, knowing just how hard it is to get back on.

Meanwhile, Cheryl recalls, “People were asking if they could come to the farm and buy the ice cream and kept asking us if they could play with the goats or do goat yoga.” At first, Cheryl couldn’t see any potential there, and she admits it was tough to wrap her head around the goat yoga idea.

Then came other news. Greg’s father, Alvin, was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. He became a motivation. “He was so social, loved agriculture and was a great advocate for our industry,” Greg says. “We wanted him to see this part of our journey come to life.”

In July 2021, the Hasketts opened their farm property and began “Udderly Ridiculous Farm Life,” allowing visitors to come and select from eight immersive farm experiences including farm tours, alpaca walks, alpaca picnics, goat recess and, of course, goat yoga. “I don’t teach that class — we have a certified yoga instructor come in,” Cheryl laughs. 

“We made another pivot — the pandemic forced us to adjust,” she says. Agri-tourism allowed the Hasketts to create additional revenue to keep Udderly Ridiculous on grocery shelves given the low margins in the industry.

Greg hopes the legacy of the family business lasts as he and Cheryl continue to have their strategic planning sessions about how the farm will evolve.

“This was no overnight success,” he says. “It took us 15 years to get here.”

The farm experiences, however, do offer another type of success and satisfaction. “The joy on our guests faces, and the reviews and gratitude for the experience they have here at the farm keep us going when things are hard and we are exhausted,” he says. “We are continuing to help make memories; that is incredibly rewarding.”

– This article was originally published in the May/June 2022 issue of Country Guide.

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Last month, Campbell Soup struck a $2.7 billion deal for Rao’s sauce maker Sovos Brands (all figures US$). Unilever bought premium frozen yogurt brand Yasso in North America, while Snickers maker Mars acquired healthy foods maker Kevin’s Natural Foods.

“There’s been a nice uptick in M+A (mergers and acquisitions) in the food industry in the first half of the year…,” said Michael Milani, executive managing director and principal at advisory firm Baker Tilly.

“It has been a big theme, and we expect that to continue in the back half of 2023 and into early 2024.”

This is despite higher borrowing costs straining companies looking for acquisitions.

The value of deals in the U.S. food and beverage industry slipped nearly three per cent to about $10.39 billion this year, according to LSEG data. But their volumes climbed 17.5 per cent to 248 as of Sept. 1, making the industry a bright spot in dealmaking.

The total number of deals across all industry sectors slid four per cent in the same period, data showed.

“Large food companies need to add more new concepts, new flavour profiles and new food items because their old brands — though still growing — are not growing at a meaningful rate,” Milani said.

The rise in deals comes as volume of sales at companies such as Kraft Heinz and Campbell fell for at least the past six quarters due to weak demand, while benefits from price hikes also fade.

“I would expect there to be a continued drumbeat of M+A,” said Sarah Henry, managing director and portfolio manager at Logan Capital Management, which holds shares in PepsiCo and Mondelez International.

Packaged food companies “are now faced with some difficult comparisons on organic (sales) and are seeking some strategic, category-specific M+A targets that will propel them through the next few years,” Henry said.

Cheerios cereal maker General Mills has pinned M+A as a key goal in the coming years, with executives saying it is a “good environment for M+A right now.”

For Mondelez, bolt-on acquisitions are the way to go, the Oreo maker’s finance chief Luca Zaramella had recently said at a Barclays conference.

Last month, Reuters reported that Twinkies snack cakes maker Hostess Brands was exploring a sale and that Mondelez and Hershey could be in the race to buy it.

J.P. Morgan analysts said they could be eyeing Hostess to expand outside of North America.

“Most of the large cap packaged food companies have … diligently reduced their debt and improved their balance sheet (through the pandemic)…so they have the risk capacity and risk appetite to pursue large-scale acquisitions,” CFRA Research analyst Arun Sundaram said.

“These packaged food companies need to continue finding ways to stay relevant … And so one of the easiest ways to do that is through M+A.”

— Reporting for Reuters by Deborah Sophia in Bangalore.

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The reweighting, which Statistics Canada carries out every year, has historically had only a marginal impact on the headline number. The new basket weights will be applied to May’s inflation data, due out on June 27.

The rebalancing reflects changes in 2022 compared to 2021. StatCan said the alterations were designed to take into account the continuing recovery from the impact of COVID-19.

“Spending that began to gradually shift back towards pre-pandemic patterns in 2021 continued and were more pronounced in 2022, with several sectors inching closer to pre-pandemic basket weight shares,” it said.

COVID-related measures and disruptions to supply chains helped push Canadian inflation up to a near-40 year high of 8.1 per cent in June last year. It has now dropped to 4.4 per cent, still more than double the Bank of Canada’s two per cent target.

Gasoline prices, pushed higher by increased demand as well as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will now account for 4.27 per cent of overall inflation, up from 3.47 per cent.

Gasoline is part of the larger transportation component which, for the second consecutive year, increased the most among the major eight segments, rising to 16.94 per cent from 16.16.

The food component expanded to 16.13 per cent from 15.75 per cent, reflecting increases in sales at restaurants as lockdown measures were removed.

But the shelter component dropped to 28.22 per cent from 29.67 per cent, in part due to lower costs for rent and other accommodation expenses as the housing market cooled.

DVD players were removed from the 2023 basket as they have become less popular with consumers following the advent of streaming services. Conversely, charcoal barbecues and snow removal equipment were added.

— David Ljunggren is a Reuters political correspondent in Ottawa.

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He said Brazil and the U.S., where JBS has meat facilities, are well positioned to meet China’s growing demand for beef as the major food importer reopens after COVID-19 restrictions.

“It is structural the growth in demand for beef in Asia as a whole, especially in China,” the CEO said.

He added that China is competitive in chicken and pork production, since these have shorter cycles, while for beef there is a need for more land and the production cycle is longer.

“Urbanization, rising income, these increase consumption,” Tomazoni told reporters. “Changes in habits after the pandemic (also) leads to an increase in beef consumption.”

On Tuesday, the CEO of poultry and pork processor BRF, Miguel Gularte, said he was optimistic about China’s meat demand returning to normalcy after the Chinese New Year celebrations.

Tomazoni cited forecasts that by 2050 the world will have to produce 50 per cent more food to meet global demand, also pointing to population growth as a factor driving consumption.

— Reporting for Reuters by Roberto Samora; writing by Ana Mano.

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Pork output in the world’s top producer of the meat reached 55.41 million tonnes, the highest since 56.71 million tonnes recorded eight years ago. The 2022 output compared with 52.96 million tonnes in 2021.

Output was boosted by high fourth-quarter production of 13.91 million tonnes, according to Reuters calculations of the data from the National Bureau of Statistics. That was up 0.87 per cent from the same year-earlier quarter despite a shortage of slaughterhouse labour due to COVID outbreaks.

Farmers have raised heavier hogs, hoping to benefit from an anticipated recovery in demand and prices, a factor that could have boosted output.

Demand had, however, remained tepid due to surging COVID-19 cases in China that kept many people at home, causing prices to plunge.

The data shows that China’s pork production has increased every quarter year-on-year for the last two years despite sluggish demand.

“I haven’t heard there’s much storage so it needs to be consumed already, which is difficult to explain,” said a livestock analyst, declining to be identified because of the sensitivity of questioning official data.

A rally in prices over the summer encouraged farmers to fatten pigs up more than normal to increase their profits.

Though it has declined, the average weight of live pigs was still on the high side at about 124.5 kg last week, according to analysts at Huachuang Agriculture.

That will continue to pressure prices, they said in a note published Sunday.

Meat consumption is set to improve after China’s reopening from a strict three-year COVID policy, with more group dining and business gatherings to support demand.

However, some believe pork consumption may not recover to the levels prior to China’s African swine fever outbreak that began in 2018, with many still cautious about crowded gatherings.

China’s beef output increased last year by three per cent to 7.18 million tonnes, the data also showed, while poultry output rose 2.6 per cent to 24.43 million tonnes and lamb and mutton increased two per cent to 5.25 million tonnes.

— Dominique Patton reports on agriculture in China for Reuters from Beijing.

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But the price rally was capped by investors looking to capture profits and adjust their positions before the end of the year, traders said.

“They’re backing off on what they want to hold and carry over into the New Year, even with both the dollar and crude oil being down,” said Karl Setzer, brokerage research lead at Mid-Co Commodities.

“That normally would be giving the grain market a boost, but not today,” Setzer said.

Wheat and corn eased from multi-week highs struck in the previous session, as traders awaited a clearer assessment of frost damage to U.S. wheat crops and as mounting COVID-19 infections in China tempered demand hopes.

Some participants booked profits after the rally in grains that may have been amplified by thin holiday volumes, traders said.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) ended the day up two cents, settling at $15.16-1/4 a bushel (all figures US$).

CBOT wheat closed the day down 11-1/2 cents, settling at $7.74 a bushel, while corn eased down 3-1/4 cents at $6.79-1/2 a bushel.

Crude oil fell as a surge in COVID-19 outbreaks in China created concern about short-term disruption, even as investors saw potential for a demand upturn next year as the country re-opens.

Drought in Argentina, the world’s largest exporter of soyoil and soymeal, is threatening prospects for next year’s soybean harvest. After less than expected rainfall last weekend in the country’s main growing belt, attention has turned to showers forecast in the week ahead.

U.S. wheat markets remained capped by Russian competition in export markets, highlighted by a purchase of 200,000 tonnes of Russian wheat by Egypt this week.

— Reporting for Reuters by P.J. Huffstutter in Chicago; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris, Michael Hogan in Hamburg and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

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Corn also found support from uncertain weather in South America, while wheat lifted as trade kept monitoring freeze damage in the U.S. Plains.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) gained 25-1/4 cents to $15.14-1/4 a bushel, the largest daily gain for a most-active contract since Nov. 11 and the first close above $15 since June 23 (all figures US$).

CBOT wheat firmed 11 cents to $7.85-1/2 a bushel, while corn added eight cents to $6.82-3/4 a bushel, after reaching $6.83-1/2, the highest level for a most-active contract since Nov. 4.

Soybean futures continue to swing on South American weather models that call for rainfall in Argentina’s parched growing region.

“The longer-range models promise a forecast of rain, but then we get to that time frame and we get very little,” said Brian Hoops, senior market analyst at Midwest Market Solutions.

The relaxing of health restrictions in China has extended to food imports, as checks have been lifted on imported chilled and frozen foods, beginning Jan. 8.

However, there was also caution in financial markets about the short-term impact of China’s COVID policy shift, with a surge in infections straining hospitals and prompting some countries to consider new rules for Chinese visitors.

Wheat rallied in the past week as extreme cold weather gripped the United States, threatening to hurt winter wheat crops already weakened by drought.

“Those types of rallies tend not to last more than a few days, but this one has lasted,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX. “The fact that the world balance sheet is as snug as it is has picked up a little bit more interest in the overseas markets.”

Gains were capped as Russia-focused agriculture consultancy Sovecon raised its forecast for Russia’s 2022-23 wheat crop estimate to 101.2 million tonnes, up from the previous estimate of 100.9 million tonnes.

— Reporting for Reuters by Christopher Walljasper in Chicago; additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

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Cattle futures were firm, with strength in the cash market underpinning prices.

Weakness in Chinese markets spilled over to CME hog futures. China’s most active hog futures contract closed down 6.6 per cent at its lowest level since it was launched almost two years ago.

Concerns about rising COVID-19 cases in China following the easing of virus-related restrictions in the world’s top consumer of pork pressured hog markets.

Boxed beef prices rose on Monday, with choice cuts gaining $8.09, to $257.02/cwt, while select cuts rose $4.42, to $225.68/cwt, USDA said (all figures US$).

CME February lean hogs dropped 0.3 cent, to 83.7 cents/lb., bottoming out at 82.8 cents, their lowest since Oct. 14. Nearby December hogs edged up 0.375 cent, to 81.95 cents/lb., in thin trading ahead of the contract’s expiration on Friday.

The CME’s lean hog index, a two-day weighted average of cash hog prices, eased 48 cents to $81.99/cwt.

CME benchmark February live cattle gained 0.55 cent, to 156.1 cents/lb., while the spot December contract firmed 0.725 cent, to 154.4 cents/lb.

CME January feeder cattle eased 0.275 cent, to 183.65 cents/lb.

— Mark Weinraub is a Reuters commodities correspondent in Chicago.

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“With such geo-political stuff going on and a possible railroad strike [in the United States], it kind of disrupts the flow,” he said.

Capinegro pointed to China and its ongoing struggles with COVID-19 outbreaks– and now a measure of civil unrest there, with protests against the stringent lockdown measures. He warned China might be trying to frontload before the country has its holiday season early next year.

“They can blow things out of proportion and make the markets break,” he said.

Also, if there is a railway strike in the U.S., even for a couple of days, “it would hurt a lot of things,” he said, as so many products are dependent on rail movement.

Another factor Capinegro said markets will keep an eye on is weather in South America — specifically, how it affects corn and soybean crops.

Also, he said to watch Mexico’s moves regarding its ban on genetically modified corn that’s scheduled to start in 2024. Capinegro noted there have been some sizeable sales of U.S. corn to Mexico recently.

“Buyers could put it in a bin and store it,” he said.

Despite all that’s going on in the world and within the U.S., Capinegro said corn will likely remain largely where it is, “but soybeans are closer to the upper end of a good trading range.

“This wheat break we have had over the last few days has really helped our price in the world,” Capinegro said, noting how little news there currently is of the war in Ukraine.

Capinegro said he expects that pattern to hold at the CBOT following the next supply and demand (WASDE) report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Dec. 9, stating “it’s not a real market mover.”

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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