Agriculture Canada’s market analysis branch forecast canola ending stocks for 2018/19 at 2.500 million tonnes, which would be double the September estimate, but in line with the 2017/18 carryout of 2.391 million tonnes.

Wheat ending stocks for 2018/19 were raised by 600,000 tonnes, to 5.600 million. That compares with the 2017/18 wheat carryout of 6.173 million tonnes.

The ending stocks adjustments were largely linked to updated production estimates released by Statistics Canada in September.

Total ending stocks of the major grains and oilseeds for 2018/19 were lowered to 12.545 million tonnes, from an earlier forecast of 10.345 million. Grain and oilseed ending stocks for the 2017/18 marketing year, which ended July 31, were pegged at 13.904 million tonnes.

Total pulse and special crop ending stocks for 2018/19 are now pegged at 1.760 million tonnes, which compares with the September estimate of 1.540 million and the 2017/18 carryout of 1.663 million tonnes.

October estimates for Canadian 2018/19 (Aug/Jul) and 2017/18 major crops supply and demand. In million metric tonnes.

Grains and Oilseeds

—-Production—-           —-Exports—-

2018/19 2018/19 2017/18   2018/19 2018/19 2017/18

Oct 19  Sep 18            Oct 19  Sep 18

All Wht  31.010  29.987  29.984    22.600  22.200  21.867

Durum     5.706   5.034   4.962     4.600   4.800   4.387

Barley    8.227   7.992   7.891     2.400   2.400   2.883

Corn     14.461  13.789  14.095     1.800   1.600   1.830

Oats      3.383   3.305   3.733     2.400   2.400   2.412

Canola   20.999  19.162  21.328    11.500  11.000  10.909

Flaxseed  0.511   0.494   0.555     0.400   0.400   0.485

Soybeans  7.515   7.010   7.717     5.700   5.300   4.998

TOTAL    86.471  81.103  85.794    46.953  45.453  45.580

—-Domestic Usage—-      —-Ending Stocks—-

2018/19 2018/19 2017/18   2018/19 2018/19 2017/18

Oct 19  Sep 19            Oct 19  Sep 18

All Wht   9.073   8.067   8.883     5.600   5.000   6.173

Durum     0.992   0.717   0.934     1.600   1.000   1.477

Barley    6.148   6.023   5.943     1.000   0.900   1.256

Corn     14.278  14.139  14.009     2.200   1.750   2.417

Oats      1.162   1.109   1.258     0.625   0.600   0.784

Canola    9.490   9.403   9.474     2.500   1.250   2.391

Flaxseed  0.124   0.131   0.190     0.125   0.100   0.128

Soybeans  2.416   2.406   2.909     0.450   0.705   0.651

TOTAL    42.968  41.555  43.021    12.540  10.345  13.904

Pulse and Special Crops

——-Production——-   ——-Exports——-

2018/19  2018/19 2017/18  2018/19 2018/19 2017/18

Oct 19   Sep 18           Oct 19  Sep 18

Dry peas    3.735    3.635   4.112    2.800   2.900   3.086

Lentils     2.230    2.167   2.559    1.900   1.800   1.540

Dry beans   0.349    0.312   0.322    0.350   0.340   0.351

Chickpeas   0.283    0.264   0.102    0.115   0.135   0.116

Mustard     0.175    0.175   0.122    0.120   0.125   0.112

Canaryseed  0.111    0.111   0.145    0.115   0.105   0.147

Sunflower   0.058    0.058   0.058    0.025   0.025   0.017

TOTAL       6.942    6.723   7.419    5.425   5.432   5.369

—–Domestic Usage——    —–Ending Stocks—–

2018/19  2018/19 2017/18  2018/19 2018/19 2017/18

Oct 19   Sep 18           Oct 19  Sep 18

Dry peas    0.901    0.900   0.688    0.700   0.500   0.650

Lentils     0.492    0.478   0.492    0.750   0.800   0.876

Dry beans   0.024    0.022   0.023    0.090   0.065   0.035

Chick peas  0.062    0.063   0.033    0.115   0.075   0.001

Mustard     0.047    0.047   0.049    0.060   0.055   0.050

Canaryseed  0.006    0.006   0.003    0.005   0.005   0.005

Sunflower   0.053    0.053   0.053    0.040   0.040   0.035

TOTAL       1.585    1.570   1.663    1.760   1.540   1.663

Source: Agriculture and Agri Food Canada.

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The Winnipeg company announced Tuesday it has acquired ProFarmer Canada, the marketing information service owned and operated by Mike Jubinville, whose analyses of Prairie crop commodity markets are well known to readers of this site.

Jubinville, Glacier said, “will continue to serve the farmers who currently rely on him for market information and insights” and will also be “an integral part of the team expanding those services to new customers.”

“We are very excited about this new addition to our services for farmers,” Glacier FarmMedia president Bob Willcox said in a release. “Mike and ProFarmer Canada are a natural fit, allowing us to bring a deeper level of market information to farmers via a tried and true expert.”

“Working with the resources and great people of Glacier FarmMedia is an exciting opportunity for myself personally and for the future of ProFarmer Canada,” Jubinville said in the same release.

“What we want to do together is to begin the development of a service that will take us to a higher level of market information products for farmers.”

Along with GFM’s market content from its network of publications, its ownership of Commodity News Service, its development of MarketsFarm with Bruce Burnett, farmers from across Canada “will have access to a robust suite of marketing information products,” GFM said.

Jubinville has operated Winnipeg-based ProFarmer Canada since 1997. Terms of its agreement with GFM weren’t disclosed.

His resume in market analysis also includes stints as a cash merchant with United Grain Growers and as an analyst with Manitoba Pool Elevators, both of which later merged into Viterra.

He also previously worked as a market reporter with the Resource News International and DowJones newswires out of Winnipeg and Chicago. — AGCanada.com Network

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The CGC pegged weekly canola exports at 470,200 tonnes of canola during the reporting period. That compares with average weekly exports over the past year of 210,000 tonnes, and would mark the largest one-week export total in data going back ten years.

The large exports caused total visible supplies in the commercial pipeline to decline to 1.3 million tonnes, from 1.5 million the previous week, despite solid farmer deliveries of 401,100 tonnes. Visible supplies were at their lowest level since mid-September.

Canadian wheat exports during the week of 315,900 tonnes, were down from the 336,100 tonnes exported the previous week and compare with the average weekly wheat exports over the past year of roughly 360,000 tonnes.

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Depending on the location, average Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat prices were down by C$8 to C$11 per tonne across the Prairie provinces, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices ranged from about C$274 per tonne in western Manitoba, to as high as C$288 in eastern Manitoba.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location, but generally held steady to range from about $2 to $16 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the US dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to US dollars (C$1=US$0.8034 as of July 28) CWRS bids ranged from US$220 to US$231 per tonne. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$41 to US$52 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada range from C$51 to C$65 below the futures.

Canada Prairie Red Spring (CPRS) wheat bids were down by C$13 to C$17 per tonne, with prices ranging from C$177 to C$188 per tonne.

Average durum prices were up by C$2 to C$5 per tonne, with bids in Saskatchewan coming in at about C$286 to C$316 per tonne.

The September spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$7.4050 per bushel on July 28, down by 25.25 US cents from the previous week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The September Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$4.8100 per bushel on July 28, down by 15.00 US cents compared to the previous week.

The September Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$4.8100 on July 28, which was down by 18.25 US cents on the week.

The Canadian dollar settled at 80.34 US cents on July 28, which was up by roughly two-thirds of a cent on the week.

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