On April 1, profit-taking took May canola down C$13.30/tonne to close at C$718.50. However, it has still remained between C$710 to C$740 since March 24.

Phil Speiss from RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg said while canola prices have been in a bullish trend line over the past few months, fundamentals are leaning bearish due to large stocks and high acreage expectations this year.

• For daily market updates, visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

A canola contract closing below its 20-day average in two straight sessions is an indicator of a downturn, he added.

“That’s step one. Get a close below the trend line,” Speiss said. “If you can get (two closes below), well now you start talking maybe there’s a potential downside. You look at targets from previous days. On (March 23), we saw a low of C$708.70/tonne and (the week) before that, we saw C$700.60. Those would become targets on the downside.”

Canola prices are largely tied to crude oil and especially to Chicago soyoil, but Speiss said diesel and heating oil markets are also influencing the oilseed.

“(Heating oil) is the most firm out of the energy markets,” he said. “There is a connection there on the bio side of things … If you look at a heating oil chart, it’s going straight up. If you’re playing biofuel and you’re a speculator or large managed money and you see that play, you’re just feeding into that canola length.”

Canola crush margins are also remarkably strong with the May contract at C$333.64/tonne as of March 31, more than double from a year earlier (C$165.31). However, Speiss noted that margins are sure to come down soon.

“It’s parabolic,” he said. “We know the crush pace is the crush pace. We know that they’re full through summer. At some point, it’s just a number. From a futures perspective, we see crush demand getting pushed further and further out the curve: November, January 2027, March 2027 … (Crush margins) don’t play too much of a role anymore.”

As for where canola prices could go in the near future, Speiss said they’re as uncertain as the war itself.

“We’re so tied to the geopoliticals right now, it’s an impossibility,” he said. “If you want to bet on anything, the trend just stays intact until you break it.”

The post ICE Weekly: Trade waits for canola to break out appeared first on Country Guide.

The 2026 FCC Food and Beverage Report states sales among food and beverage manufacturers are predicted to rise by 0.8 per cent while volumes fall by 0.7 per cent, the fourth straight year of decline. It notes sales growth will likely be driven by higher prices, not higher consumption.

WHY IT MATTERS: With trade tensions still disrupting global supply, prices could fluctuate this year, affecting consumers’ choices.

FCC chief economist Craig Johnston said this disparity speaks to the issue of consumer purchasing power.

“Higher food prices over the past several years are really weighing on households’ budgets,” he said in an interview. “They’re making more cost-conscious decisions.”

“This is actually a headwind for consumption and a headwind for volumes.”

He said any upstream changes will no doubt filter down to Canadian producers. Some challenges are shared across sectors.

“When we think about common elements, you can think about the tariffs, the elevated input costs, generally,” he said.

Margins are tight across the sector, including for farmers.

“We’re not seeing massive improvements on margins within the food and beverage manufacturing sector to pre-COVID levels, and we’re not necessarily seeing that filter through to a broad-based increase in margins for primary ag.”

“The industry in general is still going through this adjustment period” he said, “and we do expect that to continue to 2026.”

Trade tensions still a factor

Canada will continue to grapple with trade uncertainty this year, including the recent instability caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

Forecasts for costs of goods in the Food and Beverage Report were made before the crisis, “meaning that if the commodity price surge persists beyond just a few months, there would be upside risks to those estimates.”

FCC had expected pressures on some inputs, such as cattle and hogs, to ease from 2025 highs, but surging energy prices due to the conflict make that less likely.

Costs of production up

Production costs for food and beverage manufacturers increased by two per cent in 2025, driven mostly by raw material costs.

“The increase in raw material costs was driven by disruptions that constrained availability and raised prices,” the report states.

“Some examples from 2025 include avian influenza impacts on poultry … tariffs that increased the cost of imported aluminum packaging and historically low cattle herd sizes across North America.”

Costs across sectors

The report also breaks down costs associated with sub-sectors of food and beverage processing.

In grain and oilseed milling, sales were uneven in 2025 but improved by the fourth quarter. 2026 shows signs of a rebound in sales and volumes.

Large carryover of canola stocks is expected to keep prices under pressure in 2026. Canola prices are expected to fall by 3.1 per cent in 2026.

The report suggested demand for Canadian maple syrup and honey has continued to increase in the global market.

In the dairy sector, 2026 will likely see a 3.6 per cent increase of product manufacturing sales over 2025. Processors are also expected to pass along costs from the producer price increase for unprocessed milk to consumers.

In the meat manufacturing sector, FCC forecasts sales up 1.6 per cent and volumes down by 5.6 per cent.

Tight supplies of live animals, due largely to disease outbreaks, drove prices up in 2025. According to the report, “2026 will likely see another year where price, not volume, drives sales upward.”

The post Food and beverage sales growth, volume decline predicted for 2026 appeared first on Country Guide.

The May canola contract closed at a high of C$739.90 per tonne on March 13 and then pulled back to C$702.60 on March 16. It recouped most of its losses the following day, but slipped to C$726.20 on March 18.

Tryhuk said canola prices are “weakly correlated” with those of crude oil, they follow soyoil prices more strongly. The May soyoil contract in Chicago reached 67.44 cents per pound on March 13, but dropped limit down on March 16. Soyoil regained most of its decline the next day, but eased back to 65.53 cents/lb. on March 18.

For daily market updates, visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

“(Soyoil) was really more influenced by Trump’s and China’s decision to push back on some of their anticipated meetings because of what’s happening in the Middle East,” he said. “Perhaps that selloff was a bit oversold. The meetings weren’t cancelled, just postponed.”

In addition to higher prices, Tryhuk thinks canola planting in 2026-27 is likely to exceed the 22-million-acre mark.

Statistics Canada projected 21.84 million acres of canola to be seeded this spring. However, data collection was completed before China’s reduced tariffs on Canadian canola exports and before the war started in the Middle East.

“If anybody had the potential for swing acres and they weren’t sure what to do, then without a doubt,” he said. “We were looking at prices in the lower end of the C$600 range leading up to the report collection and since then, (canola) swelled by over C$100. I’m sure this will inspire (more) acres and perhaps the seeded figure will come closer to what the trade estimated.”

Export demand underwhelming

Nevertheless, rising canola prices could also backfire. Export demand has not been as much as anticipated after China reduced its tariffs.

“Higher prices will put some demand out of reach … A lot of the activity we’re seeing is crusher demand but I don’t think we’re seeing a lot of export demand,” Tryhuk said. “The domestic crush industry is going to have to support the futures. As long as the crush margins remain as excellent as they are, we’re not going to be concerned about a collapse or erosion in values.”

He added that canola could see more demand outside Canada, depending on the United States 2026 and 2027 biofuel blends to be announced later this month. Meanwhile, the canola crush was 11.5 million tonnes last year and is on pace to match that this year. This could mean Canada’s canola crush capacity may have reached its upper limit.

As crude oil prices stay elevated, canola is likely to do so as well.

“I think it’s fair to say we’ve probably reached a new price band for canola and I wouldn’t expect us to return to the C$625 area this year,” Tryhuk said. “Yes, we’ll see a pullback in crude. Yes, we’ll see a similar pullback in canola … But the media is saying there won’t be a quick resolution to this conflict and as such canola should be supportive generally.”

The post ICE Weekly: Canola to stay elevated as war persists appeared first on Country Guide.

David Derwin, a commodities investment advisor for Ventum Financial in Winnipeg, said higher crude and soyoil prices, as well as new Canadian canola exports to China, lifted the value of the oilseed.

“You see a bit of a chain effect. Crude oil goes up, then bean oil goes up and then canola too,” Derwin said. “Soyoil’s been a part (of these rallies) but other factors have helped, as well.”

He also said the funds have also flipped canola’s net position from short to long amidst speculation of the United States biofuel mandate for 2026.

Although canola prices ended mixed on Feb. 25, signaling a potential end to its rally, Derwin said canola previously broke through resistance levels when the oilseed was C$10 to C$20 per tonne lower. He believes there is still upside to go for canola.

“Those resistance levels are not set in stone and they can fluctuate,” he said. “(Canola) probably added C$80 per tonne since the beginning of the year. That’s a good move in a short period of time. It’s still pointing higher and over the course of the ride that we’ve seen since the beginning of the year, there will be periods of time where it gives back C$10 to C$15 and would still be in a shorter-term uptrend.”

China’s reduction of tariffs on Canadian canola last month were supportive of prices, as well as domestic demand. Derwin said an elevator sale of canola on Feb. 20 was “one of the largest in at least 10 years.”

“There certainly is buying by the grain companies and by end users. Demand has been fairly strong and some of it has been the China factor,” he added.

Another element that could affect canola prices will be Statistics Canada’s principal field crop area report on March 5. The report will be StatCan’s first to show estimated acreage numbers for the 2026-27 crop year. However, the figures were determined by a survey conducted before China reduced its tariffs on Canadian canola, and that could result in canola acres being underestimated.

“There’s always the potential for some kind of surprise or some interesting numbers to come from (the report). I would think as we go forward here, a lot of the same factors that have been helping (canola) trend higher will still be very much in place,” Derwin said.

The post ICE Weekly: Canola benefitting from supportive factors appeared first on Country Guide.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported 230,300 tonnes of wheat exports for the week ended Feb. 1, down from 353,300 tonnes the previous week. So far this marketing year, 11.5 million tonnes of wheat were exported, compared to 10.5 million at the same time last year.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its monthly supply/demand estimates on Feb. 10, with 2025-26 wheat ending stocks raised by five million tonnes at 931 million, exceeding trade expectations. Global carryout was tightened by 740,000 tonnes at 277.51 million, below the trade’s pre-report estimates.

Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat was down C$0.10 to up C$2.40 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices were between C$249.10/tonne in southeast Saskatchewan to C$279.60 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels ranged from between C$40.20 to C$70.80/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

Accounting for exchange rates and adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7383), CWRS bids were from US$183.90 to US$206.50/tonne. Currency adjusted basis levels ranged from US$2.40 to US$25 below the futures. If the futures were converted to Canadian dollars, basis levels would be C$1.80 to C$18.40 below the futures.

Meanwhile, Canadian Prairie Red Spring (CPRS) prices lost C$1.80 to C$2.60 per tonne. The lowest average bid for CPRS was C$224.30 in southeast Saskatchewan, while the highest average bid was C$248.80 in southern Alberta.

The average prices for Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD) were up C$2.80 to C$3 per tonne with bids between C$278.50 in southwest Saskatchewan to C$289.60 in southern Alberta.

The March spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts are based off of, was quoted at US$5.6825 per bushel on Feb. 10, down 0.75 of a cent.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The March contract declined 4.25 cents at US$5.3050/bu.

The March Chicago soft red contract was down 0.5 of a cent at US$5.825/bu.

The Canadian dollar moved up 0.58 of a cent to close at 73.83 U.S. cents on Feb. 10.

The post Prairie Wheat Weekly: Spring wheat declines, durum higher appeared first on Country Guide.

The March contract gained C$8.90 per tonne during the week ended Feb. 4 at C$659.10. During the Feb. 4 session, it reached a high of C$660, which was the highest price seen for the contract since Dec. 2, 2025. On the same day, United States President Donald Trump announced that China committed to purchase 20 million tonnes of soybeans this marketing year, supporting vegetable oil prices.

Tony Tryhuk, director of futures trading with RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg, said China’s agreement to reduce and eliminate tariffs on Canadian canola was already factored into prices despite the agreement not coming into effect until March 1.

“No doubt the lifting the trade restrictions (by) China had a very positive effect on values,” Tryhuk explained. “Even on a day like (Feb. 4), there was positive news coming out of the U.S.”

The move above C$650/tonne in the March contract was also supportive from a chart standpoint.

“There was some pretty good resistance around that C$650 area. We managed to break above that,” he added. “Anybody who was short, thinking those highs were going to remain in place because of the very burdensome carryout we’re still projecting this year, those people are now in a position to buy back those positions and cover them.”

March soybeans gained 17.25 cents per bushel at US$10.9225 during the week, while March soyoil rose 1.35 cents per pound at 55.66. Tryhuk said it was “baffling” to see the Chicago soy complex move higher despite the upcoming record South American soybean harvest.

“It’s counterintuitive to see our market being as strong as we are,” he said. “You can look to the energy market. Biodiesel offered potential there, being a driver. Crude oil was trading at US$58 (per barrel) and it’s now at US$65.”

As traders start to roll their March positions into May, Tryhuk thinks the next resistance level for March canola will be C$675/tonne.

“(There was) pretty good resistance there back in early November. It looks to me a target price if the U.S. market can continue to be supportive to canola values.

“We need that updraft in order to get that market higher because by the time this deal is signed with China, it’s very late in the marketing year. If they don’t reach a two million-tonne export projection … our carryout will still be substantial, in the four million-tonne range,” he said.

The post ICE weekly: China, soy complex lift canola prices appeared first on Country Guide.

Canola yields

Klassen said canola yields could go back to normal in 2026/27, slipping from the 2.51 tonnes per hectare they harvested in the fall. The two previous crop years, Canadian farmers gleaned about 2.20 t/ha., according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

On Jan. 21, AAFC issued it January supply and demand estimates, projecting the 2026/27 canola yield at 2.17 t/ha.

Cost of production

Klassen looked at the cost of production and surmised farmers would need at least C$661 per tonne for new crop just to break even.

“Prices for new crop are below that right now. The market needs to move higher so that farmers maintain the acres from last year,” Klassen said.

AAFC estimated planted area for 2025/26 at 8.75 million hectares, compared to an average of nearly 8.30 million over the last two years.

As for the current situation, Klassen said farmers have been very reluctant to sell their canola because C$617/tonne is below the cost of production.

Farmers deliverling less canola

The Canadian Grain Commission reported producer deliveries of canola for the week ended Jan. 11 at 8.15 million tonnes, down from 9.25 million a year ago.

“You another need (C$44 per tonne) before the farmer opens his bins to give it to the commercials,” he said.

Canada-China deal

Meanwhile, canola was being pushed higher on continued optimism toward the Canada-China deal signed on Jan. 16, Klassen said.

The agreement is to drop China’s tariffs on imports of Canadian canola seed and meal from 100 to 15 per cent. In exchange, Canada will slash its surcharge on Chinese electric vehicles from 100 to 6.1 per cent. However, China’s levies on canola oil are to remain at 100 per cent.

Klassen said there’s the belief within the trade that China will import about two million tonnes of canola before the 2025/26 marketing year ends on July 31.

“Next year, they’ll probably take their usual amount of four million tonnes,” he added.

The post ICE Canada Weekly: Canola premium required appeared first on Country Guide.

“Some positive news coming out of Beijing, which is great,” said Delaney Ross Burtnak, executive director of Manitoba Canola Growers Association. “This is a preliminary announcement at this point, so there’s still some work to do to understand what it means and what the final decision will be.”

The proposed agreement would ease tariffs on Canadian canola as part of a broader trade package between Canada and China, raising hopes for improved market access after months of disruption.

Ross Burtnak welcomed the significant reduction of canola seed tariffs and the expected elimination of the tariff on canola meal.

“That’s good news,” she said. “We’re not sure what’s happening with canola oil, so we need to understand that a little further.”

Ross Burtnak said tariffs have affected farmers most clearly through price and uncertainty. She noted there appeared to be an uptick in canola prices following news of the proposed tariff reductions, but said the bigger concern over the past 17 months has been whether farmers would be able to sell their canola at all.

“If the elevator or exporter doesn’t have a market to sell that canola into, they’re not going to be buying it from farmers,” she said. “This decision helps prevent that worst-case scenario.”

Ross Burtnak said the announcement offers some reassurance after a prolonged period of uncertainty for canola growers.

“There’s definitely some cautious optimism with this news this morning,” she said.

The post Manitoba Canola Growers Association cautiously optimistic after proposed Canada-China canola tariff relief appeared first on Country Guide.

Last year, China imposed 100 per cent tariffs on Canadian canola oil and meal in retaliation to Canada’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. A 75.8 per cent tariff on canola seed was also imposed. As a result, overall Canadian canola exports are down in 2025-26 compared to last year while Canada recently harvested a record-large canola crop.

Jamie Wilton, trader for RJ O’Brien in Winnipeg, said Carney’s visit with Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an effect on prices, depending on how discussions go. But he added that the hype leading up to the visit helped fuel canola’s rally earlier this month.

“We (also) had a massive fund short coming into this time period. Funds are short-covering and are hoping they are getting some export increase from China this year,” Wilton said.

Anti-government protests in Iran, threats of intervention in Iran by the United States, and drone attacks on a Russian terminal raised crude oil prices over the past week, which, in turn, supported soyoil and canola.

“Bean oil has a big fund short too. I think that they’ve combined to keep soyoil and canola rallying,” Wilton said.

Despite the South American soybean harvest being in its early stages, he said the canola trade is not focusing on it. Instead, Wilton and others believe that prices will depend on China’s actions or inaction.

“We’re all waiting for China and the news from the Prime Minister’s Office,” he said.

The post ICE Weekly: All eyes on Carney in China appeared first on Country Guide.

“The trend is still clearly lower,” Tryhuk said. “The fundamentals are poor. The funds are short. All of the technicals, the fundamental supply and demand info point to lower values.”

Likely to test lows

Along with that, the trader said losses in the Chicago soy complex are further contributing to weakness in canola. He added that when there have been gains, there’s rarely been follow through.

“We probably have a better than average chance of retesting our lows,” Tryhuk continued. “The only caveat is each time the market drops below $600 (per tonne), we find that there is some exporter pricing that steps up and comes in to try and cover some of that business.”

One issue he pointed out was the large gap between the price offered by the exporter and what the farmer wants for their canola, noting the latter is more unwilling to sell.

Very little exported to China

Of course, the China issue will carryover into 2026, further heightening a record canola harvest and the strong prospect of a large carryout by the end of July.

“The absence of China is not being made up by export business to Pakistan, Bangladesh, the UAE, and Europe,” Tryhuk said. “It’s just not doing enough to support the market.”

The most recent data from the Canadian Grain Commission showed canola exports to China were only 113,900 tonnes as of the end of October, compared to 2.29 million tonnes the same point in 2024/25. The CGC’s weekly reports placed cumulative canola exports 20 weeks into 2025/26 at 2.54 million tonnes compared to 4.39 million the same time last year.

The post ICE Canada Weekly: Canola unlikely to have a good start to 2026 appeared first on Country Guide.