Leduc, a fourth-generation producer who grows more than 10,000 acres of wheat, durum, mustard, canola, peas and lentils in an area dominated by grazing cattle, thinks that the long-awaited technological improvement, a plant that produces canola-like oil, could help him eke out a few more dollars per acre.

“All I’m trying to do is improve the bottom line of our farm,” he said.

WHY IT MATTERS: Mustard growers worry BASF’s InVigor Gold hybrid will destroy Canada’s condiment mustard industry. BASF says the oilseed could be grown safely in arid regions where canola routinely fails.

But Trent Dewar, who farms elsewhere in the Canadian semi-desert known as Palliser’s Triangle, fears the new GMO mustard plant will ruin the pure mustard he grows for the premium Dijon bottlers in France, the United States and Japan, as well as other specialty mustards. The industry is worth about $150 million (C$209 million) in exports annually — only a fraction of the $8.9 billion (C$12.4 billion) canola exports market. But in a geography where canola fails more often than it flourishes, mustard has been the lifeblood of many farms since growers started planting it 90 years ago.

“Everybody I’ve talked to personally is quite shell-shocked that this would even be considered,” he said.

Mustard is a tiny crop in Canada, with usually less than 200,000 metric tons of mustard produced by a few hundred farmers. Mustard production soars and sags with volatile world prices and local weather, like other specialty crops. Canadian canola growers, by contrast, usually plant more than 20 million acres of their crop, which produces upwards of 19 million metric tons. That makes canola Canada’s biggest source of crop income by far.

That’s why so many are excited about the drought-resistant GMO mustard plant. Global agricultural giant BASF hopes to win approval from Canadian and U.S. agencies for commercialization as soon as next year in the U.S. and a couple of years later in Canada.

It’s not without risk, however. The GMO plant looks nearly identical to a traditional mustard plant. Neighboring fields could be contaminated with seeds and pollen carried on the wind or by bees. Both traditional brown and oriental mustards and the new mustard canola are brassica junceas, so they can breed, with pollen from one type fertilizing the other.

“It has the potential of wrecking a whole industry,” said farmer Norm Hall, the chair of SaskMustard, which represents Saskatchewan’s mustard growers. The group is lobbying the government in Ottawa to keep the crop out of Canada.

Brent Collins, head of BASF’s seeds and traits division in Canada, said the crop was an “innovation” that would “truly unlock new canola acres, helping meet market demand.”

The French connection

France, which sources about half its mustard supplies from Canada, has a strict non-GMO standard. Other large global buyers are similarly stringent. Many Canadian mustard growers and sellers fear the door could slam shut if traces of the hybrid mustard-canola were detected.

“They look at it like a razor blade that shows up in a bag of rice,” said Peter Gorski of Broadgrain, a company that sells Canadian specialty crops like mustard to buyers around the world.

Foreign buyers have not said how they will respond if GMO traces appear. Most contracts contain a commitment to be non-GMO, and two contracts shared with Reuters contained that specification. A French law limits the presence of GMOs in the food supply, but the threshold of acceptable traces is mostly left to the buyer.

Christophe Planes, sales and marketing director for French mustard processor Reine de Dijon, said the GMO plant could spell trouble for Canadian exports.

About half of the company’s seeds are sourced from Canada, he said, adding: “We’re clearly committed to a non-GMO policy.”

“Since France is quite strict regarding GMOs we systematically check all our supplies to ensure that there are no traces, or very few traces,” Planes said.

Since Canada’s crippling drought of 2021, which hampered mustard production and triggered panic in French shoppers finding grocery store shelves bare of the condiment, France has boosted its own domestic supplies. There are other sources for mustard seed, such as Argentina, Germany and Ukraine, but Canadian mustard is both high quality and cheap, Planes said. Switching could affect quality and raise prices.

A flax grower’s nightmare, revisited

Canadian mustard growers are haunted by a historical precedent: tainted flax. Canada lost a well-paying and steady European market for flax when traces of a GMO variety called Triffid were found in European food products in 2009. Exports plunged and never recovered.

Mustard is an ancient crop, its seeds found in stone-age settlements of the Near East, in ancient Sumerian texts, and even in the tomb of Egypt’s Pharaoh Tutankhamun. In the Bible, Jesus of Nazareth told a parable about the mustard seed.

By contrast, the mustard-canola hybrid is a 21st-century scientific marvel, employing decades of traditional plant breeding and later GMO methods to produce a mustard plant that produces a version of canola oil, and that survives a herbicide controlling the plague of tumbleweeds in western North America. Many farmers in the mustard-growing region have been eagerly awaiting this new crop since the 1990s, but it has been a tortuous scientific development process. Canola is a cool-weather crop that thrives in northern latitudes like Canada, but climate change’s bouts of extreme heat and drought are expected to make it more challenging to grow.

Some of the original research into using a mustard plant to produce canola-like seed was done by scientists working for a farmers’ cooperative in the 1990s, as well as by university researchers. Now global agriculture giant BASF has brought what it calls InVigor Gold to the cusp of commercialization.

Traditional clashes with bold and new

From discussions with mustard and canola industry key players, it is clear that the two camps have sharply different assessments of whether the GMO mustard can flourish alongside traditional mustard.

“We know we can’t co-exist,” said Rick Mitzel, executive director of Sask Mustard.

BASF, however, thinks two million acres of its mustard-canola could be grown in arid areas of Canada and the U.S., with safeguards against pollen flow and seed spread between mustard and canola fields.

“We understand the areas that mustard growers are concerned about and it’s our responsibility to be able to explain what exactly we’re doing to be able to appease some of these concerns,” said Collins.

The two sides have sporadically met in recent years, but as the widespread release of the crop approaches, mustard growers and the mustard industry have grown desperate.

At an industry meeting this winter, mustard growers and merchants called for their representatives to take legal and political action to block the introduction of InVigor Gold. But Hall told them it would be an “uphill battle” because BASF is following the usual crop development protocols, and market impact is not considered during the Canadian crop approval processes.

Kacy Gehring of Mountain States Oilseeds, a U.S. mustard merchant in American Falls, Idaho, said the concern about GMO contamination destroying markets could trigger farmers to just stop growing mustard. That wouldn’t just be a problem for companies like hers, but also bad for world culinary culture, she said.

Farmer Leduc understands the worries of his mustard-growing neighbors, but doesn’t apologize for wanting to get InVigor Gold into his fields as soon as possible. Farming in an arid region isn’t easy, but it’s where his great-grandfather settled. He needs every survival tool he can get.

“I wish I was in a wetter part of the province,” he said.

— Additional reporting by Sybille de la Hamaide and Gus Trompiz in France.

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India

The USDA attaché in New Delhi projected India’s 2026/27 canola production at 12.10 million tonnes, slightly higher than the 2025/26 harvest of 11.90 million.

While yields are expected to hold at 1.31 tonnes per hectare, the attaché forecast Indian farmers to harvest more area – 9.25 million hectares versus 9.10 million in 2025/26.

“(Canola) is expected to remain profitable, with prices sufficient to cover input costs and ensure solid margins for growers,” the attaché wrote.

WHY IT MATTERS: India is among the largest canola producers in the world and Japan is a major oilseed importer.

Despite India being one of the world’s top canola growers, the country does not import or export the crop.

The New Delhi desk estimated the domestic crush will bump up to 10.90 million tonnes from 10.70 million, while domestic consumption is to match the 2026/27 crop. Ending stocks are to hold at 569,000 tonnes.

Japan

As for Japan, it will continue to be one of the major canola importers. However those for 2026/27 are to dip to 2.15 million tonnes from 2.16 million the year before.

The USDA attaché in Tokyo said the bulk of Japan’s canola imports come from Canada, but the supplier’s share has dropped from about 96 per cent of Japan’s imports to around 83 per cent. Australia has remained a major source of canola for Japan.

“Japanese crushers have noted higher oil extraction rates from Australian canola compared to Canadian seeds, though meal extraction rates are converse,” the attaché said.

Japan’s domestic canola crop is to be only 3,000 tonnes.

Virtually all of the country’s canola will be crushed, with a mere 5,000 tonnes for feed, waste and domestic consumption.

Ending stocks are to remain stable at 200,000 tonnes.

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On April 1, profit-taking took May canola down C$13.30/tonne to close at C$718.50. However, it has still remained between C$710 to C$740 since March 24.

Phil Speiss from RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg said while canola prices have been in a bullish trend line over the past few months, fundamentals are leaning bearish due to large stocks and high acreage expectations this year.

• For daily market updates, visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

A canola contract closing below its 20-day average in two straight sessions is an indicator of a downturn, he added.

“That’s step one. Get a close below the trend line,” Speiss said. “If you can get (two closes below), well now you start talking maybe there’s a potential downside. You look at targets from previous days. On (March 23), we saw a low of C$708.70/tonne and (the week) before that, we saw C$700.60. Those would become targets on the downside.”

Canola prices are largely tied to crude oil and especially to Chicago soyoil, but Speiss said diesel and heating oil markets are also influencing the oilseed.

“(Heating oil) is the most firm out of the energy markets,” he said. “There is a connection there on the bio side of things … If you look at a heating oil chart, it’s going straight up. If you’re playing biofuel and you’re a speculator or large managed money and you see that play, you’re just feeding into that canola length.”

Canola crush margins are also remarkably strong with the May contract at C$333.64/tonne as of March 31, more than double from a year earlier (C$165.31). However, Speiss noted that margins are sure to come down soon.

“It’s parabolic,” he said. “We know the crush pace is the crush pace. We know that they’re full through summer. At some point, it’s just a number. From a futures perspective, we see crush demand getting pushed further and further out the curve: November, January 2027, March 2027 … (Crush margins) don’t play too much of a role anymore.”

As for where canola prices could go in the near future, Speiss said they’re as uncertain as the war itself.

“We’re so tied to the geopoliticals right now, it’s an impossibility,” he said. “If you want to bet on anything, the trend just stays intact until you break it.”

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As for the Canadian soybean crush, StatCan has not published any new data since it released its report for the July crush in August 2025. The agency said any numbers have been “suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act.”

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Richardson was a minority shareholder of Calgary-based Matex (formally known as Control Chemical Corporation) since 1989 before fully acquiring the company in 2021. Matex produces drilling fluids and vegetable oil-based lubricants used in mining and resource extraction processes.

Richardson supplied Matex with canola oil from its processing plant in Lethbridge, Alta.

Matex also makes specialty polymers, foams, blast hole stabilizers, thread compounds and non-alcohol freeze control fluids.

In a statement, Richardson said the sale more closely aligns with its “farm-to-table value chain” and “sets up Matex for continued success and stability under new ownership.”

“We saw an opportunity to transition Matex to an ownership group that is well positioned to support the business into the future,” said Darrell Sobkow, executive vice-president, processing, food and ingredients at Richardson International.

“Matex has built a strong reputation in its market, and we’re confident it will be in great hands. We thank Matex employees for their dedication throughout this process, and we are committed to working closely with the new owners to support a smooth transition.”

– With files from Dave Bedard

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“Crude oil is going to be a big driver in this environment and therefore (soyoil), but there’s a lot of political stuff too,” Derwin said.

Along with the Middle East war, Derwin pointed to coming renewable fuel and biodiesel policies in the United States and the renegotiating of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement.

U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled on March 27 to announce the latest renewable fuel proposals coming from the Environmental Protection Agency. Meanwhile the review process for CUSMA is already underway.

Derwin said it’s important to protect oneself from possible wide swings in canola, which could range from C$600 to C$800 per tonne.

“It’s more of what happens if it goes to either one of those places,” Derwin said. “You don’t want to lock in too much in case of production concerns. There’s some big swing potential here.”

Added to that is the forthcoming canola crop.

“We’re a little bit early where any kind of seeding concerns or weather-driven concerns come into play,” he said, emphasizing that could change in the coming weeks and months.

The post ICE Canada Weekly: More behind canola, soyoil than crude oil prices appeared first on Country Guide.

Why it matters: A large fund position can sway the futures markets

The net managed money long position in canola futures came in at 110,658 contracts as of March 17 (135,694 long/25,036 short), up by about 18,000 contracts on the week due to a combination of short covering and new longs going on the books. That marked the largest net long position since July 2025.

Total open interest in canola futures increased to 364,317 contracts from 352,531 the previous week.

U.S. futures

Fund traders reduced their net long position in soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade by roughly 16,000 contracts, with the net long dipping to about 195,200 contracts. That was the first contraction after six previous weeks of increases.

The net short position in corn came in at about 230,800 contracts on March 17, up by 32,000 contracts on the week.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of 11,900 contracts — down by about 10,000 contracts from the previous week.

Hard red winter wheat posted a net long of about 11,300 contracts. In MIAX spring wheat, the managed money net long position came in at about 15,300 contracts.

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Soybeans

China has been forecasted to see slightly more soybeans planted in 2026/27, due to government assistance and improved domestic prices.

For 2025/26, the USDA indicated 10.80 million tonnes of soybeans have been purchased by China or are being shipped to the country. Also, the USDA said 2.19 million tonnes are destined for unknown destinations and it’s not yet clear how much of the amount is destined for China. Soybean imports are to increase in 2026/27, but China’s demand is expected to slow over the coming years.

Canola

There’s to be a small increase in canola acres in 2026/27 as China begins expanding its winter canola area to idle land. Its winter canola currently accounts for less than 10 per cent of China’s total canola production.

In February, China removed or reduced the tariffs on its imports of Canadian canola seed and meal. Since then, China has bought 650,000 tonnes of canola from Canada.

Corn

As China continues to boost its domestic corn production, its import program has become more heavily focused on Brazil corn. Two years ago Brazil corn accounted for 47 per cent of China’s imports, followed by the U.S. at 26 per cent and Ukraine at 20 per cent. In 2025/26, Brazil stands at 61 per cent, with Russia at 17 per cent and Myanmar at 11 per cent. Ukraine and the U.S. fell to nine and one per cent, respectively.

Wheat

Although China’s 2026/27 wheat crop was planted later than normal, yields are projected to be a pinch higher than in 2025/26 while harvest area holds. Guaranteed returns have encouraged farmers to maintain 2025/26 levels. Reduced ending stocks in 2025/26 are to lead to a further decline in 2026/27.

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The May canola contract closed at a high of C$739.90 per tonne on March 13 and then pulled back to C$702.60 on March 16. It recouped most of its losses the following day, but slipped to C$726.20 on March 18.

Tryhuk said canola prices are “weakly correlated” with those of crude oil, they follow soyoil prices more strongly. The May soyoil contract in Chicago reached 67.44 cents per pound on March 13, but dropped limit down on March 16. Soyoil regained most of its decline the next day, but eased back to 65.53 cents/lb. on March 18.

For daily market updates, visit the Western Producer Markets Desk

“(Soyoil) was really more influenced by Trump’s and China’s decision to push back on some of their anticipated meetings because of what’s happening in the Middle East,” he said. “Perhaps that selloff was a bit oversold. The meetings weren’t cancelled, just postponed.”

In addition to higher prices, Tryhuk thinks canola planting in 2026-27 is likely to exceed the 22-million-acre mark.

Statistics Canada projected 21.84 million acres of canola to be seeded this spring. However, data collection was completed before China’s reduced tariffs on Canadian canola exports and before the war started in the Middle East.

“If anybody had the potential for swing acres and they weren’t sure what to do, then without a doubt,” he said. “We were looking at prices in the lower end of the C$600 range leading up to the report collection and since then, (canola) swelled by over C$100. I’m sure this will inspire (more) acres and perhaps the seeded figure will come closer to what the trade estimated.”

Export demand underwhelming

Nevertheless, rising canola prices could also backfire. Export demand has not been as much as anticipated after China reduced its tariffs.

“Higher prices will put some demand out of reach … A lot of the activity we’re seeing is crusher demand but I don’t think we’re seeing a lot of export demand,” Tryhuk said. “The domestic crush industry is going to have to support the futures. As long as the crush margins remain as excellent as they are, we’re not going to be concerned about a collapse or erosion in values.”

He added that canola could see more demand outside Canada, depending on the United States 2026 and 2027 biofuel blends to be announced later this month. Meanwhile, the canola crush was 11.5 million tonnes last year and is on pace to match that this year. This could mean Canada’s canola crush capacity may have reached its upper limit.

As crude oil prices stay elevated, canola is likely to do so as well.

“I think it’s fair to say we’ve probably reached a new price band for canola and I wouldn’t expect us to return to the C$625 area this year,” Tryhuk said. “Yes, we’ll see a pullback in crude. Yes, we’ll see a similar pullback in canola … But the media is saying there won’t be a quick resolution to this conflict and as such canola should be supportive generally.”

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AAFC cautioned that the conflict in Iran “has heightened geopolitical tensions and market volatility,” and noted that planting decisions could be altered while “the report is based on information and trade policies in effect as of March 11, 2026.”

Canola

• Projected canola ending stocks for 2025-26 were left unchanged at 2.76 million tonnes, while the 2026-27 forecast was cut by 200,000 tonnes from February at 1.46 million tonnes.

• Given average yields, AAFC forecast Canadian canola production in 2026-27 at 19.20 million tonnes, which was unchanged from the February estimate and down from the 21.80 million tonnes grown in 2025-26.

Wheat

• New crop wheat ending stocks were raised to 5.75 million tonnes from 5.70 million in February, while the 2025-26 wheat carryout held at 7.35 million tonnes.

• AAFC raised its call on wheat production to 35.01 million tonnes, from 34.98 million the previous month. That would still be well below the 39.96 million tonnes harvested in 2025-26.

Pulses

• Other notable revisions included slight increases in pea and lentil production estimates, with ending stocks of the two pulses also up by 100,000 tonnes each from the previous forecast.

• The pea carryout for 2026-27 was raised to 945,000 tonnes from 845,000 tonnes in February, while lentils were forecast at 1.67 million from 1.57 million tonnes.

• Pea ending stocks for the current marketing year are estimated at 1.31 million tonnes with lentils at 1.695 million tonnes.

Soybeans/Corn

• Corn ending stocks for both 2025-26 and 2026-27 were left at 2.00 million tonnes.

• Soybean carryout for 2026-27 was cut by 50,000 tonnes from February, at 693,000 tonnes, which compares with 443,000 for the current marketing year.

March estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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