The attaché estimated harvested area in 2026-27 is to increase to 17.1 million hectares from 15.9 million, as more marginal land will be seeded with soybeans. That’s to see yields slip to 2.87 tonnes per hectare from 3.02 tonnes in 2025-26.

Spike in fertilizer prices

The Buenos Aires desk cautioned that with fertilizer prices spiking by more than US$200 per tonne due to the Middle East war, farmers could alter their planting intentions before hitting the fields. Even more soybeans could be seeded at the expense of more nitrogen-hungry corn.

• For daily market news and updates, visit The Western Producer Markets Desk

The attaché noted Argentina produces two soybean crops per year. About 70 per cent of the country’s soybeans come from the “soja primera,” or first soy crop, which is harvested during April and May. The balance is the “soja de segunda” or second crop of soybeans, which follows Argentina’s winter wheat harvest and combined from May into early July.

Reduced imports, higher ending stocks

Given that Argentina’s soybean imports increased to seven million tonnes in 2025-26, the attaché said there’s likely to be a return to more normal levels. With that, they lowered the country’s bean imports to 6.5 million tonnes for 2026-27.

As for ending stocks, they were forecast to continue to rise sharply. The attaché placed the carryover for 2024-25 at 3.65 million tonnes, and those for 2025-26 were upped to 5.15 million. While total domestic consumption is to slip by one million tonnes at 42 million in 2026-27, the carryout is to jump to 8.15 million.

Soybean crush

Although Argentina is expected to see a decline in its soybean crush, the Buenos Aires desk said the country is to remain the world’s top exporter of soymeal and soyoil. The attaché noted that Argentina’s crush capacity is likely to run at 63 per cent in the coming crop year, down from 86 per cent.

The 2026-27 crush is projected to produce 31.92 million tonnes of soymeal and 8.38 million of soyoil, with both to be slightly lower than in 2025-26.

The exports are expected to hold in 2026-27 with soymeal at 30 million tonnes and soyoil at 6.3 million.

Canada now a customer

While China will remain the top export destination, the attaché said that Canada is the newest customer with soyoil heading to a refinery in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Total domestic consumption was pegged at 2.7 million tonnes for soybeans, up 200,000 from the previous year, and soyoil is trimmed to 2.25 million tonnes from 2.3 million.

Ending stocks are projected to fall in 2026-27, with soymeal at 2.24 million tonnes from 3.02 million and soyoil declining to 102,000 tonnes from 262,000.

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“Right now in South America, I have a corn crop being equal to last year. In my gut, I think it’s going to be below last year when the safrinha crop is finally harvested,” he said.

Issues with safrinha corn

Although that second Brazil corn crop is more than 91 per cent planted, Cordonnier pointed out there are more than 3.21 million acres still needing to be seeded and stressed the main planting window has closed with dry weather ahead.

“Planting (corn) at this point is very risky. They’ll run out of moisture before the crop has a chance to mature,” he said. “They’re already worried about the dry weather in the state of Paraná.”

Cordonnier said Brazil’s first corn crop is more than halfway harvested, but about 20 points behind this time last year. He said that isn’t too much of a concern.

He recently cut his call on Brazilian corn production this year to 133 million tonnes, from an earlier estimate of 135 million. That compares with the United States Department of Agriculture’s forecast of 132 million tonnes and 138.3 million tonnes by Brazil’s Conab.

Argentina corn

As for corn crop in Argentina, Cordonnier said about nine per cent has been combined and the average yield is about 131 bushels per acre.

“They’re harvesting the best part right now,” he said, noting that yields will likely decline as combining progresses.

Dry conditions in parts of Argentina created a wide gap in yields, from as little as 40 bu./ac. to as much as 200. Cordonnier said more recent rainfall has stabilized Argentina’s corn.

Soybeans

As for soybeans, Cordonnier said Brazil remains on pace to produce its biggest crop on record. However, it likely won’t be as large as initially expected.

The Brazil soybean harvest was about 61 per cent finished, nine points behind last year.

“It’s on the slow side. That’s because heavy rains continue to fall across northern Brazil,” Cordonnier said.

In southern Brazil, such as Rio Grande do Sul, soybeans were planted late due to drought and that state’s harvest is barely underway, Cordonnier said.

Aside from a very small amount of fields, the soybean harvest had yet to start in Argentina, he added, projecting yields of about 56 bu./ac. in the country’s core soybean-growing area.

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Corn

• Projected 2025-26 ending stocks for U.S. corn were unchanged at 2.127 billion bushels, down nine million from the average trade estimate, but well above the 1.551 billion reported for 2024-25.
• Corn production and exports were also unchanged from February at 17.021 billion and 3.3 billion bushels, respectively.
• Global corn carryout was projected at 292.75 million tonnes, up 4.77 million from February, due to increased production and an upward revision to the 2024-25 carryout, which stands at 295.82 million.

Soybeans

• The 2025-26 soybean ending stocks estimate stayed put at 350 million bushels from last month, up six million from the average trade estimate and up 25 million from the 2024-25 figure.
• Production and exports remained the same at 4.262 billion and 1.575 billion bushels, respectively.
• Projected U.S. soyoil carryout was up 30 million pounds at 1.782 billion, while soymeal carryout was unchanged at 450 million short tons.
• The global soybean carryout estimate was trimmed by 200,000 tonnes at 125.31 million, which is 1.47 million above the upwardly revised 2024-25 carryout. Production was down one million tonnes at 427.18 million. Global soymeal carryout was down 180,000 tonnes at 19.33 million, while global soyoil carryout was up 70,000 tonnes at 6.20 million.

Wheat

• Projected U.S. wheat carryout for 2025-26 was unchanged from the previous month at 931 million bushels, up five million from the average trade estimate. Last year’s ending stocks totalled 855 million.
• Production and exports also remained the same at 1.985 billion and 900 million bushels, respectively.
• The global wheat carryout estimate was cut by 550,000 tonnes at 276.96 million despite increased production.

South America

• The USDA lifted its projected 2025-26 Brazilian corn production by one million tonnes at 132 million with ending stocks up 2.28 million tonnes at 5.96 million. In Argentina, production was down one million tonnes at 52 million with ending stocks down 800,000 tonnes at 5.09 million. Brazilian and Argentine corn production in 2024-25 were 136 million and 50 million tonnes, respectively.
• The projected Brazilian soybean crop was unchanged at 180 million tonnes with carryout also steady at 37.91 million. In Argentina, soybean production was cut by 500,000 tonnes at 48 million with ending stocks unchanged at 22.92 million. In 2024-25, Brazil and Argentina produced 171.5 million and 51.11 million tonnes of soybeans, respectively.

Grain, soy futures hit highs on war worries

Prices for fertilizer and fuel spiked as the war has closed the Strait of Hormuz, shut down fertilizer plants in the Middle East and upset shipping routes. The disruptions have left some farmers in the Northern Hemisphere ​scrambling for supplies just as they prepare to put seeds in the ground.

U.S. grain and soy futures touched multi-month highs on Monday, despite expectations for ample supplies, as traders worried the war would drag on and oil prices rallied. Traders also assessed the potential for U.S. farmers to cut back on plantings of corn because it requires high rates of nitrogen fertilizer.

USDA did not adjust any of its estimates in a monthly supply and demand report based on the Middle East conflict, said Mark Jekanowski, chairman of USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.

“It’s way too early,” he said.

-With files from Tom Polansek/Reuters

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It’s quite common for the USDA’s various attachés worldwide to come up with different calculations than those from the department. Overall, the Buenos Aires desk was not too different from the USDA’s numbers, but there were a few exceptions.

February rains bolster crops

The attaché placed harvested area for soybeans to be 15.80 million hectares compared to 16.50 million from the USDA. Yields differed as well, with the attaché at 3.04 tonnes per hectare versus 2.94 by the department.

The attaché noted that Argentina experienced a drier than normal January, but the country received sufficient rain earlier this month to bolster its crops.

Imports, crush

While the USDA pegged Argentine soybean imports at 7.80 million tonnes, its Buenos Aires desk came in lower at seven million, due to the crush increasing from 42 million tonnes in 2024/25.

Both were close on Argentina’s 2025/26 soybean crush, with the attaché at 43 million tonnes and the USDA at 42.50 million.

Exports, carryover

One notable difference was in Argentina’s exports, with the USDA at 4.60 million tonnes and the attaché estimating six million. There was also a notable gap in feed, waste and domestic consumption with USDA at 7.20 million tonnes versus 5.50 million by the attaché.

That also led to a sizeable distance in ending stocks, with the USDA projecting 5.86 million tonnes at the Buenos Aires desk at 4.35 million.

Sunflowers, peanuts

For sunflower seeds, the attaché estimated Argentina’s production for 2025/26 at 5.80 million tonnes and ending stocks of 857,000 tonnes. The USDA calls were 5.50 million and 914,000 tonnes, respectively.

The Buenos Aires desk placed Argentina’s peanut production at 1.44 million tonnes compared to 1.50 million by the USDA. There was a wide difference in the carryover, with the attaché at 985,000 tonnes versus 473,000 by the USDA.

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Last year, lower U.S. soy sales to China allowed Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, to ship 85.4 million metric tons to China, an 18 per cent increase from 2024, according to Brazilian government data.

Though Hedgepoint has not released an exact forecast for Brazilian shipments to China, its bet is that Brazil’s soy sales to China may increase even after President Donald Trump said the world’s biggest importer would buy more beans from U.S. farmers this year.

China is expected to raise imports by 4 million metric tons to 112 million tons in 2026, according to Hedgepoint, creating demand that either Brazil or the U.S. could supply.

“Argentina will export less this year because its crop is smaller,” said Luiz Fernando Roque, a Hedgepoint Global analyst. “That already puts another 4 or 5 million tons in the hands of the Americans or Brazil.”

Regarding Argentina specifically, aside from a smaller projected soy crop, the country tends to focus on domestic processing to make soymeal and oil, Roque said.

In 2025, the U.S. share of China’s soybean imports fell to 15 per cent, from 21 per cent the year before, while Brazil’s rose to 73.6 per cent, up from 71 per cent in 2024, according to Hedgepoint data.

Argentina’s share jumped to seven per cent, from four per cent, according to Chinese government data.

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A White House official said in October that Trump would make such a move, evoking fury from the nation’s cattle ranchers.

Trump has faced pressure to address the issue of affordability, which helped propel Democratic candidates to several electoral victories in 2025.

U.S. beef prices set record highs last year, benefiting ranchers who largely supported Trump, due to strong consumer demand and declining cattle supplies.

Ranchers slashed the herd to its lowest level in 75 years as of January 1 following a persistent drought that burned up pastures used for grazing and hiked feeding costs, according to U.S. data.

Unlikely to significantly lower beef costs

Trump’s decision to raise the tariff rate quota on Argentine beef by 80,000 metric tons will let Argentina ship more of its beef to the U.S. at a lower rate of duty. The increase will apply only to lean beef trimmings, which are blended with domestic supplies to make hamburger meat, according to the proclamation.

“Instead of imports that sideline American ranchers, we should be focused on solutions that cut red tape, lower production costs, and support growing our cattle herd,” said Republican U.S. Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska, a major cattle-producing state.

Washington and Buenos Aires signed a broader new trade and investment agreement that will give preferential market access to U.S. goods in Argentina.

Economists have said increased U.S. imports of Argentine beef will likely be too small to significantly lower costs for grocery store shoppers, but the shipments could help improve margins for food companies.

The U.S. imported about 33,000 metric tons of Argentine beef in 2024, representing two per cent of total imports, according to government data.

— Reporting by Tom Polansek, Ismail Shakil and Bhargav Acharya

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The exported volume reached 853,183 tons of bone-in beef equivalent, the ministry added in a statement.

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump in October of last year said it was quadrupling low-tariff imports of Argentine beef in an attempt to lower grocery store beef prices.

In addition to the U.S., Argentina consolidated key international markets including the European Union, China and Israel, the statement added.

The ministry said international beef prices in December 2025 rose 35.6 per cent compared to the same month in 2024, reaching the highest nominal level in the sector’s history.

— Reporting by Gabriel Araujo

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Why it matters: South American soybean production is a major influence on canola futures and the Chicago soy complex.

For the most part, there was little difference between the USDA’s numbers in its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates released on Jan 12 and the attaché reports out a few days earlier.

Argentina:

• The Buenos Aires desk projected a soybean harvest of 47.50 million tonnes, down from 50.50 million in 2024/25. The USDA is at 48.50 million tonnes, compared to 51.11 million the previous year.

• The attaché said delays to planting due to heavy rains and farmers switching to corn were the reasons for the decline.

• The attaché said soyoil production is to be 8.60 million tonnes and the USDA estimated 8.18 million.

• Soyoil exports are to be 6.45 million tonnes according to the attaché with the USDA at 6.15 million.

Brazil:

• The USDA attaché in Brasilia estimated soybean harvest at 177 million tonnes and the department upped its call by three million to now 178 million tonnes. Either number would be record production for Brazil, which provides well in excess of 40 per cent of the world’s soybeans.

• The impetus for such enormous production is increased cultivated acres due to Brazil’s new B15 biofuel mandate. The attaché placed harvested area at 49.10 million hectares, inline with the USDA’s official call and up from 48.80 million estimated in December.

• Also, Brazil exports a majority of its soybeans. The Brasilia desk projected those exports to hit 113 million tonnes while the official department call rose 1.5 million tonnes to 114 million.

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The 51-year-old farmer from the southern part of the Buenos Aires province, Ugrotte examines his wheat plants near the steady roar of a combine harvester combing through his fields. The verdict is hard to argue with: this one turned out exceptionally well.

WHY IT MATTERS: High global wheat stocks have put downward pressure on prices.

“We knew it was going to be a good harvest, but not to the extreme of the figures we ended up with,” said the farmer from the town of Benito Juarez, about 400 kilometers south of the Argentine capital.

With the country’s two main grain exchanges estimating the 2025/26 wheat harvest at a record between 27.1 and 27.7 million tons, the farmer’s words resonate not only in his region, the wheat heartland of the country, but throughout Argentina.

With only a few hectares left to harvest, production is expected to exceed the country’s record wheat harvest of 22.2 million tons for the 2021/22 season by up to 25 per cent, according to official data.

A hot, dry day in the austral summer is helping wrap up the harvest on Ugrotte’s farm, where he has been working since he was 17.

Ideal season

Argentina, one of the world’s top grains suppliers, relies on the agricultural sector to generate foreign currency.

Dry conditions have smoothed the path for combines on rural roads and across fields nationwide, after Argentina enjoyed almost ideal weather at every stage of wheat development, resulting in what the Rosario Grain Exchange described as “unprecedented” yields for the crop.

“There were low temperatures in the winter when the crop was in its vegetative stage, which is what it needs. Then it had a period of very regular rainfall that resulted in good tillering, good ear development, and finally, excellent grain filling,” said Ugrotte.

According to the producer, in Benito Juarez only 20 per cent to 30 per cent of the wheat area remains unharvested, marking the end of an “excellent” season. Nationally, just 13 per cent of the planted area remains unharvested, according to the latest government data.

And while producers are bagging their last batches of wheat, in adjacent fields, Argentine soybeans and corn are nearing maturity, also with good prospects according to Ugrotte.

“For the main crops, the weather has also been cooperating” he said. “The main crops harvest still depend on what happens with January rains, but the outlook looks good.”

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Following a trade truce in late October, China has stepped up purchases of U.S. cargoes, with traders saying that more than 7 million metric tons have been purchased since then.

In late November, Reuters reported, citing a shipping schedule, that two cargo vessels would carry the first U.S. soybean shipments to China since May.

As these cargoes have not yet arrived, they do not appear on the customs website.

Argentina, Brazil imports jump

U.S. soybean imports fell to zero in November from 2.79 million metric tons a year earlier, data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed on Saturday.

Arrivals from Brazil jumped 48.5 per cent year-on-year to 5.85 million tons, accounting for 72 per cent of total imports, while shipments from Argentina rose 633.6 per cent to 1.78 million tons, or 21.9 per cent of the total.

The world’s top soybean buyer imported 8.11 million metric tons in November and 103.79 million tons in the first 11 months, putting full-year arrivals on track for a record amid strong purchases from South America and a trade truce with Washington.

From January to November, China imported 76.7 million tons from Brazil, up seven per cent year-on-year, and 6.24 million tons from Argentina, up 62.5 per cent year-on-year.

U.S. soybean imports fell 5.9 per cent year-on-year to 16.82 million tons from January to November.

Sinograin held three auctions this month to make room for U.S. soy arrivals.

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