MarketsFarm — Supply/demand balance sheets for Canada’s major crops only saw minor adjustments in the latest update Tuesday from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, with hot and dry growing conditions leading to “significant uncertainty” on the state of the country’s 2021-22 crops.
Total field crop production in the country was forecast to decrease due to a return to trend or below trend yields, based on information available at the end of June, according to the report.
Canola production for 2021-22 was forecast at 19.885 million tonnes, which would be down slightly from the June estimate but still above the 18.72 million tonnes grown the previous year as increased planted area offsets a slight downgrade in yields.
Total Canadian wheat production for the year was forecast at 31.428 million tonnes — up by nearly 400,000 tonnes from the June forecast, but still below the 35.187 million tonnes grown in 2020-21.
“Hot and dry conditions continue to adversely affect Western Canada and are a cause for significant uncertainty at this time in the growing season in regards to estimates of yield and production,” the department said.
Recent fires in British Columbia damaged both Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Railway (CN, CP) lines to Vancouver. While the lines have been repaired, they are operating at reduced capacity and AAFC noted the backlog in transportation may slow shipments.
Canola ending stocks for the current marketing year were left unchanged at 700,000 tonnes with the new-crop carryout now also steady at 700,000 tonnes, from 750,000 in June. That would be well below the 3.131 million-tonne carryout from 2019-20.
Total wheat carryout for 2021-22 was lowered to 4.9 million tonnes, from 5.05 million tonnes in June. Old-crop wheat ending stocks were steady at 4.65 million tonnes.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.