CBOT weekly outlook: Soybeans, corn recover

More gains possible

MarketsFarm — Soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade moved off of nearby lows over the past week, with more upside a possibility, according to an analyst.

“In general, with the recovery in energy prices and global markets, we’re seeing a little support come into the agricultural markets,” said Terry Reilly of Futures International in Chicago.

A move by Argentina to increase export taxes on soybeans, and the likely shift in trade flows toward the United States, was underpinning the soy market, he said.

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Improving export demand was also underpinning corn, with a Chinese purchase of U.S. sorghum on Wednesday also supportive, according to Reilly.

However, strength in the U.S. dollar index was a limiting factor in the grains, as the rising currency makes U.S. exports more expensive for international buyers.

Shifting sentiment on the COVID-19 coronavirus is also “creating a rollercoaster in these markets,” Reilly said of the volatility in futures. “We don’t know how much it will spread and impact global logistics.”

From a chart standpoint, May corn could move back up into the $3.90-$3.95 per bushel level (all figures US$) over the next few weeks “if we continue to see the funds pour money back into the market.”

May corn settled Wednesday at $3.85 per bushel.

For soybeans, Reilly saw the potential for the May contract (trading Wednesday at $9.0725) to trade back up to two-month highs in the $9.20-$9.25 per bushel area.

“I’m a little bit bullish on both markets.”

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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