CBOT weekly outlook: Prices could turn higher by month’s end

CBOT September 2021 corn (candlesticks) with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages (yellow, orange and dark green lines). (Barchart)

MarketsFarm — By the end of July, markets should have a good idea of what will shake out for corn and soybean crops in the U.S., according to Scott Capinegro of Barrington Commodities at Barrington, Ill.

Corn and the soy complex on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), as well as the U.S. wheat complex, were presently mixed. However, Capinegro believed gains were in the offing.

“Probably the next seven to 10 days will give us a better indicator of what’s happening [with corn]. We’re getting those high temperatures, but we are going to be back at 90 to 93 F. We still need moisture,” he said, noting much of the U.S. Corn Belt was in the pollination stage.

Capinegro added that there’s still a “battle” between the very dry western Corn Belt and its wetter eastern counterpart. Yields in the latter are expected to be much better than those in the west.

As for soybeans, he said they can be something of a sleeper.

“Beans are borrowing time right now. It will be very interesting when Aug. 1 rolls around. If it’s still hot and looks dry, I wouldn’t be surprised if beans rallied US$1 [per bushel] in a week. That’s how beans trade, they’re putting you to sleep right now, then all of a sudden – boom – up they go quickly.”

While the U.S. wheat complex saw declines for Minneapolis spring wheat due to some scattered showers for the U.S. northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, Capinegro said the picture should become clear with harvest.

Kansas City hard red and Chicago soft white wheats were higher despite the U.S. winter wheat harvest being nearly three-quarters complete when the U.S. Department of Agriculture issued its weekly crop progress report on Monday. The spring wheat harvest has yet to begin.

“We’ll hear more bad numbers of course, but have we priced that in yet? That’s hard to say,” said Capinegro.

He suggested farmers should lock in their prices for their crops by acquiring puts.

“That leaves your options open in case something does happen.”

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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