As for the Canadian soybean crush, StatCan has not published any new data since it released its report for the July crush in August 2025. The agency said any numbers have been “suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act.”

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The USDA releases its prospective plantings report on March 31, providing the first survey-based estimates on the upcoming U.S. growing season.

The trade sentiment ahead of the report is for a three-to-five-million-acre reduction in corn area from the 98.8 million acres grown in 2025 and a similarly sized increase in soybeans from the 81.2 million acres grown last year. Rising fertilizer costs due to the war could see even more area shift to soybeans.

Soybean/corn ratio

The soybean/corn ratio is calculated by dividing the soybean futures price by the corn futures price, with a number above 2.5 historically seen as favouring planting soybeans and a ratio below that tipping the scales to corn.

With May soybeans settling at US$11.7175 and corn at US$4.6725 on March 25, the ratio works out to 2.51 — slightly favouring soybeans.

However, the localized cash bid ratios across the countryside are more varied. Looking at a sampling of elevators in Illinois and Iowa the local soybean/corn ratios range from 2.35 to 2.65, meaning seeding corn looks more favourable in some areas and soybeans in others.

The high fertilizer costs and other metrics are also not caught in the ratio, which should keep speculation on the annual fight for acres at the forefront of the trade in the coming weeks.

Charts

May corn has traded in a range of US$4.40 to US$4.76 per bushel since the Middle East war started on Feb. 28. Fund traders added to the bullish bets, to sit on their largest net long in corn since February 2025 at about 230,000 contracts. The trend is still higher in corn, as that market looks to keep too many acres from flipping to soybeans.

May soybeans settled at US$11.7075 per bushel on Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran and hit a session high of US$12.3875 per bushel two weeks later. However, the contract was right back where it started by March 25.

The post CBOT weekly outlook: Soybeans/corn awaiting acreage data appeared first on Country Guide.

“Crude oil is going to be a big driver in this environment and therefore (soyoil), but there’s a lot of political stuff too,” Derwin said.

Along with the Middle East war, Derwin pointed to coming renewable fuel and biodiesel policies in the United States and the renegotiating of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement.

U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled on March 27 to announce the latest renewable fuel proposals coming from the Environmental Protection Agency. Meanwhile the review process for CUSMA is already underway.

Derwin said it’s important to protect oneself from possible wide swings in canola, which could range from C$600 to C$800 per tonne.

“It’s more of what happens if it goes to either one of those places,” Derwin said. “You don’t want to lock in too much in case of production concerns. There’s some big swing potential here.”

Added to that is the forthcoming canola crop.

“We’re a little bit early where any kind of seeding concerns or weather-driven concerns come into play,” he said, emphasizing that could change in the coming weeks and months.

The post ICE Canada Weekly: More behind canola, soyoil than crude oil prices appeared first on Country Guide.

Soybeans

China has been forecasted to see slightly more soybeans planted in 2026/27, due to government assistance and improved domestic prices.

For 2025/26, the USDA indicated 10.80 million tonnes of soybeans have been purchased by China or are being shipped to the country. Also, the USDA said 2.19 million tonnes are destined for unknown destinations and it’s not yet clear how much of the amount is destined for China. Soybean imports are to increase in 2026/27, but China’s demand is expected to slow over the coming years.

Canola

There’s to be a small increase in canola acres in 2026/27 as China begins expanding its winter canola area to idle land. Its winter canola currently accounts for less than 10 per cent of China’s total canola production.

In February, China removed or reduced the tariffs on its imports of Canadian canola seed and meal. Since then, China has bought 650,000 tonnes of canola from Canada.

Corn

As China continues to boost its domestic corn production, its import program has become more heavily focused on Brazil corn. Two years ago Brazil corn accounted for 47 per cent of China’s imports, followed by the U.S. at 26 per cent and Ukraine at 20 per cent. In 2025/26, Brazil stands at 61 per cent, with Russia at 17 per cent and Myanmar at 11 per cent. Ukraine and the U.S. fell to nine and one per cent, respectively.

Wheat

Although China’s 2026/27 wheat crop was planted later than normal, yields are projected to be a pinch higher than in 2025/26 while harvest area holds. Guaranteed returns have encouraged farmers to maintain 2025/26 levels. Reduced ending stocks in 2025/26 are to lead to a further decline in 2026/27.

The post USDA attachés forecast some changes in China’s oilseeds, cereals appeared first on Country Guide.

While the U.S. soybean crush continued to expand, StatCan didn’t include any soybean crush data for 2025 due to confidentiality requirements under the Statistics Act.

Canola

Canadian canola crushers took in more than 11.55 million tonnes of the oilseed last year, compared to the five-year average of 10.16 million. In the U.S., which has a far smaller canola crop to work with, its crush came to 2.02 million tonnes, a little more than the average of 1.98 million.

Soybeans

At more than 60 million tonnes, the U.S. soybean crush continued to expand with it far exceeding its five-year averages for seed, oil and meal. For the Canadian crush, it was receding from recent highs in 2022.

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Dennis Lange, industry development pulses specialist for Manitoba Ag, said in a March 10 interview that any such changes “would be an option for somebody who hasn’t had fertilizer plans set up already.” Lange said if there were to be any alterations, the most likely crops to change to would be soybeans and pulses.

Fertilizer, crude oil prices rise

Fertilizer prices have spiked, following sharp hikes in crude oil prices that started when the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

The day before, urea futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were about US$442 per tonne in the nearby contracts. By March 3, urea hit US$590 and closed March 10 at US$585.

In comparison, the April contract for West Texas Intermediate jumped from US$67 per barrel on Feb. 27, to almost US$95 six days later. On March 9, WTI topped out at more than US$119/barrel before closing at around US$83.50.

Fall fertilizer

Lange said Manitoba farmers managed to get down a good amount of fertilizer in the fall after a number of extensions to the application deadline following frequent rains.

“For now, I don’t foresee any big swings because there was a fair bit of fertilizer that went down last fall, on the nitrogen side anyways,” Lange said.

He added that growers will likely keep to their crop rotations and give consideration to weed issues, especially when it comes to planting peas.

“It’s the status quo for the most part, but if there’s unseeded acres or unplanned acres, that might be a shift to the crop set that might be more economical,” Lange said.

StatCan forecast

On March 5, Statistics Canada issued its planted area projections for 2026/27 and forecast less pulse acres for Manitoba while soybeans are to increase.

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Based on interviews by Glacier FarmMedia, the general outlook is for more planted acres devoted to canola, spring wheat, barley and oats. Then expectations are for less durum, corn, soybeans, lentils and peas going into the ground.

Canada-China trade deal

Of note, the StatCan report will be based on farmer surveys conducted in December. That was before Canada and China reached their tariff deal that has eliminated or slashed levies on China’s imports of Canadian canola seed and meal, as well as other products.

Jon Driedger of Leftfield Commodities said farmers were very likely planning to seed more canola this year anyways.

“Prior to the China trade deal, canola was penciling out better than a lot of other crops,” Driedger said, noting that agronomics may limit how much farmers can plant of each crop.

John DePape of Farm Co. projected 22.50 million acres of canola to be planted in 2026/27, suggesting that “would be on the lower side.”

Jerry Klassen of Resilient Capital said he expects Canadian farmers to revert to their more traditional plantings, which would see larger crops such as canola and spring wheat, while there’s likely to be less durum planted. Klassen said a good amount of durum was seeded last year in areas that traditionally grow very little of it.

He concurred that more canola will be planted in 2026/27 because it offers the best returns.

Pulses, cereals

For pulses, Klassen said less acres will be allocated to them due to their large ending stocks, especially for lentils and peas.

Klassen added that high fertilizer prices and supply shortages of it could affect farmers’ planting decisions, especially in Manitoba and Ontario.

The post More canola, spring wheat likely to be seeded this spring appeared first on Country Guide.

It’s quite common for the USDA’s various attachés worldwide to come up with different calculations than those from the department. Overall, the Buenos Aires desk was not too different from the USDA’s numbers, but there were a few exceptions.

February rains bolster crops

The attaché placed harvested area for soybeans to be 15.80 million hectares compared to 16.50 million from the USDA. Yields differed as well, with the attaché at 3.04 tonnes per hectare versus 2.94 by the department.

The attaché noted that Argentina experienced a drier than normal January, but the country received sufficient rain earlier this month to bolster its crops.

Imports, crush

While the USDA pegged Argentine soybean imports at 7.80 million tonnes, its Buenos Aires desk came in lower at seven million, due to the crush increasing from 42 million tonnes in 2024/25.

Both were close on Argentina’s 2025/26 soybean crush, with the attaché at 43 million tonnes and the USDA at 42.50 million.

Exports, carryover

One notable difference was in Argentina’s exports, with the USDA at 4.60 million tonnes and the attaché estimating six million. There was also a notable gap in feed, waste and domestic consumption with USDA at 7.20 million tonnes versus 5.50 million by the attaché.

That also led to a sizeable distance in ending stocks, with the USDA projecting 5.86 million tonnes at the Buenos Aires desk at 4.35 million.

Sunflowers, peanuts

For sunflower seeds, the attaché estimated Argentina’s production for 2025/26 at 5.80 million tonnes and ending stocks of 857,000 tonnes. The USDA calls were 5.50 million and 914,000 tonnes, respectively.

The Buenos Aires desk placed Argentina’s peanut production at 1.44 million tonnes compared to 1.50 million by the USDA. There was a wide difference in the carryover, with the attaché at 985,000 tonnes versus 473,000 by the USDA.

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AAFC projected total planted area for 2026/27 at 31.70 million hectares, slipping 103,000 from the previous year. Total harvested area was little changed at 30.71 million hectares.

Related: USDA sees more soybean acres, less corn

“Seeding decisions are expected to be shaped by crop rotation needs, prevailing moisture conditions, anticipated price levels and input costs and availability,” AAFC wrote. “Under current market conditions and based on historical patterns, total seeded area for Canadian field crops is projected to broadly stable year-over-year.”

The agency also forecast yields to return to normal levels in 2026/27 from the unexpected increases in 2025/26. With overall production to decrease, ending stocks have been projected to decline significantly in 2026/27, despite slower exports.

Wheat

• All wheat area was projected to remain relatively steady at 10.94 million hectares. Of that total, durum area is to be 2.46 million hectares versus 2.64 million in 2025/26. Wheat (no durum) is to expand to 8.48 million hectares from nearly 8.30 million in 2025/26.
• AAFC kept all wheat production for the coming crop year at 34.98 million tonnes.
• Wheat ending stocks were kept at 5.700 million tonnes for 2026/27, with those for 2025/26 slipping to 7.35 million.

Canola

• Planted canola area for 2026/27 stayed at January’s 8.92 million hectares, up from 8.75 million the previous year.
• However, yields are to drop to 2.17 tonnes per hectare from 2.51 in 2025/26. That’s to lower production by almost 12 per cent at 19.20 million tonnes.
• AAFC kept its call for 2025/26 canola exports to 8.20 million tonnes and those for 2026/27 remained at 7.50 million.
• Canola ending stocks were nudged up by 10,000 tonnes each for 2025/26 at 2.76 million tonnes and 2026/27 at 1.66 million tonnes.

Barley/Oats

• AAFC kept its estimate on planted barley area for this spring at 2.64 million hectares, up from 2.48 million last year. Ending stocks are to drop from 1.60 million tonnes in 2025/26 to 900,000 in 2026/27.
• The agency also maintained planted oat area for 2026/27 at 1.24 million hectares, slightly higher from the year before. Based on a more average yield of 3.43 t/ha. production is to drop to 3.55 million tonnes from last year’s 3.92 million.

Soybeans/Corn

• There were no changes in AAFC’s corn data for 2026/27, and it was much the same for soybeans. The agency raised 2026/27 soybean ending stocks to 743,000 tonnes from 650,000 last month.

Peas/Lentils

• AAFC kept most of its January pulse numbers in its February report.
• Pea production stayed at 2.85 million tonnes for 2026/27, as did lentils at 2.25 million tonnes. In 2025/26 peas came in at 3.93 million tonnes with lentils at 3.36 million.
• Ending stocks were bumped up from January, with dry peas now at 845,000 tonnes and lentils at 1.57 million.

1 hectare = 2.47 acres

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• Solid crush data released Tuesday remained supportive for soyoil, helping underpin beans. Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 221.564 million bushels of soybeans in the United States in January, which was a record for the month and up 10.6 per cent from the same month a year ago.
• The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House later this week.
• Rainfall in southern Brazil helped improve crop conditions, reducing concerns over hot and dry weather in the area. Meanwhile, the harvest was progressing in central and northern growing regions.
• Optimism over increased sales to China remained supportive for values, although the Lunar New Year holiday was limiting business.

WHEAT futures corrected higher amid ideas recent losses were overdone.

• Concerns over cold temperatures damaging winter wheat in parts of Ukraine were supportive.
• Warmer weather and dryness concerns in parts of the U.S. Plains were also supportive.

CORN futures were up in sympathy with wheat, with positioning ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Ag Outlook Forum a feature.

• The USDA will release its first projections for 2026/27 supply and demand as part of the Ag Outlook Forum, with early trade estimates predicting a reduction in corn acreage and increases in soybean area.

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