Dennis Lange, industry development pulses specialist for Manitoba Ag, said in a March 10 interview that any such changes “would be an option for somebody who hasn’t had fertilizer plans set up already.” Lange said if there were to be any alterations, the most likely crops to change to would be soybeans and pulses.

Fertilizer, crude oil prices rise

Fertilizer prices have spiked, following sharp hikes in crude oil prices that started when the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

The day before, urea futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were about US$442 per tonne in the nearby contracts. By March 3, urea hit US$590 and closed March 10 at US$585.

In comparison, the April contract for West Texas Intermediate jumped from US$67 per barrel on Feb. 27, to almost US$95 six days later. On March 9, WTI topped out at more than US$119/barrel before closing at around US$83.50.

Fall fertilizer

Lange said Manitoba farmers managed to get down a good amount of fertilizer in the fall after a number of extensions to the application deadline following frequent rains.

“For now, I don’t foresee any big swings because there was a fair bit of fertilizer that went down last fall, on the nitrogen side anyways,” Lange said.

He added that growers will likely keep to their crop rotations and give consideration to weed issues, especially when it comes to planting peas.

“It’s the status quo for the most part, but if there’s unseeded acres or unplanned acres, that might be a shift to the crop set that might be more economical,” Lange said.

StatCan forecast

On March 5, Statistics Canada issued its planted area projections for 2026/27 and forecast less pulse acres for Manitoba while soybeans are to increase.

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That would be in addition to the planted area recently projected by Statistics Canada, as nitrogen-based fertilizers have seen price hikes of 30 per cent since the start of the current Middle East war. Vessels transiting the narrow Strait of Hormuz to and from the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf have come to a stop, which threatens global supplies.

On Feb. 27, nearby urea futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were nearly US$442 per tonne and then jumped to US$590 by March 3. Since then, urea has fluctuated with crude oil prices, closing on March 9 at US$585/tonne.

Pulses add nitrogen

Risula said in a March 10 interview that switching to pulses would make sense due to the nitrogen benefits they provide.

“But it may not be as much as one might think because there are other aspects that could influence farmers’ decisions,” he added.

He said farmers’ crop rotations would be a major consideration as well as concerns over root rot, which has been a problem for pulse crops in Saskatchewan.

Of the choices for additional pulse acres, Risula said the most likely would be lentils. Another selection he said farmers would consider is chickpeas.

“They’re growing it away from the area it was intended for, which was the drier part of southwest Saskatchewan,” he said, noting there are more chickpea varieties available.

StatCan recently forecast a 13.3 per cent increase of planted chickpea acres in Saskatchewan for 2026/27 at 559,100.

Phosphorus issues

As for lentils and peas, Risula cautioned these pulses require good phosphorus levels, which is currently a problem in the province.

“Generally, our soils have been running down in phosphorus levels,” which he said are cyclical.

That would also mean farmers would have to consider the costs to applying phosphorus where levels are lower than normal and its availability. While urea process have risen significantly, those for phosphorous are up only five per cent.

StatCan planted and forecast pulse acres in Saskatchewan

Pulse 2025/26 2026/27

Lentils 3,808,600 3,643,900

Dry Peas 1,773,000 1,479,300

Chickpeas 493,400 559,100

Faba Beans 15,300 29,800

Dry Beans 8,600 n/a

– With files from Sean Pratt, Glacier FarmMedia

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U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins announced Feb. 19 that the USDA intended to purchase up to $263 million in dairy and agricultural products from U.S. farmers and producers to distribute to food banks and nutrition assistance programs across the country.

“From milk and dairy to fruits, legumes, and tree nuts, these staples are essential for feeding families and sustaining America’s agricultural economy,” said Rollins.

Pulses make up US$75 million of that total, with US$25 million allocated for edible beans, US$24 million for split peas, US$14 million for lentils and US$12 million for chickpeas. The remainder of the funds are slated for dairy, fresh fruit and nuts.

The purchases will be made through USDA’s authority under Section 32 of the Agriculture Act of 1935 with the stated goal of assisting producers and communities in need.

USA Pulses welcomed the move, with CEO Tim McGreevy noting in a Global Pulses report that the announcement provides “meaningful support for American pulse producers while helping deliver nutritious, affordable food to families across the country.”

He added that investment recognizes “the essential role pulses play in both uplifting rural and agricultural communities and promoting food security,” and noted the purchases will help “stabilize farm income, strengthen rural economies, and ensure food banks and nutrition assistance programs have access to shelf-stable, protein-rich foods.”

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“We were looking at some pretty difficult circumstances,” Penner said, referencing the trade issues Canada had with China and India over the last year, and emphasized the cyclical nature of the markets.

“Right now, I believe we are at the low part of the cycle, which means we will be coming up the other side. It’s just a matter of timing,” he said.

Penner said Canadian pulse growers had one of their biggest harvests, but not necessarily due to the most planted area in five years nor the August rains.

“It was the mild summer,” he stated. “It’s the temperatures that gave us the big yields this year.”

Export competition

Penner cautioned that foreign competitors such as Russia also had sizeable pulse crops with it gleaning about five million tonnes of peas alone.

On the positive side, he said China is set to remove its 100 per cent tariffs on Canadian pea imports come March 1.

“We’ll see how much of an appetite they have left for peas,” Penner said, noting that China’s pea inventories are at 20-year lows.

China/India

He said it’s very likely China will continue buying Russian peas for feed and purchase the better quality Canadian peas for fractionation.

Although India ended its duty-free period on its pea imports in November, as a means to boost domestic prices, Penner said Canadian bids surprisingly haven’t declined.

He forecast China and India to each import about 800,000 tonnes of Canadian peas in 2025/26. However, he lamented that it will still leave large ending stocks.

Penner based his estimate that on average pea yields of 35 bu./ac., down from 42.3. He placed planted area at 3.15 million acres compared to 3.51 million in 2025/26. That put 2026/27 production at 2.94 million tonnes versus 3.93 million this year.

Lentils

As with peas, Canadian growers reaped a large lentil crop but so did its competitors, including Australia at about 1.91 million tonne, Penner said.

“We’re not the only show in town anymore,” he noted, but cautioned that other major lentil-producing countries such as Turkey, the United States, Kazakhstan are set to plant less in 2026/27.

The price differences between Canada and Australia should help the former’s exports. Penner cited Canadian red lentils at about US$350 per tonne, versus US$450 for Australian reds.

Although India’s lentil imports are off to a good start, he stressed their domestic prices are at multi-year lows. Currently, India has a 10 per cent import duty on lentils, and Penner warned that could increase.

If India were to triple its levy to 30 per cent, he’s confident that won’t hurt Canada’s lentils exports to the country.

He said the best hope for Canadian lentils in 2026/27 is for increased exports, farmers to reduce their acres and to get average yields.

Penner said if lentil yields fall from 1,722 pounds per acre this year to an average of 1,213 in 2026/27, coupled with reduced planted acres of 3.90 million compared to 4.38 million this year, that will help reduce ending stocks.

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Schmidt said the Calgary office hasn’t traded in yellow peas since around Jan. 21.

“Some buyers have been cooling off,” he said, noting the yellows fetched C$7.50 to C$8 per bushel picked up, with delivered around C$8.25/bu. and free on board farm close to that range as well.

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported old crop yellow peas increased by 36 cents during the week ended Jan. 26, at C$6.75 to C$8.25/bu. delivered. The new crop prices were C$6.30 to C$6.65/bu. delivered.

Canada-China deal

The impetus for the increase was the agreement Canada and China reached on Jan. 16, to reduce tariffs on each other come March 1. While Canada will slash its levy on Chinese-made electric vehicles from 100 per cent to 6.1 per cent, China will drop is duties on Canadian yellow peas, canola seed and canola meal from to 15 per cent.

While pea prices are better, Schmidt said some farmers had issues growing them.

“Some guys might be a bit standoffish” when they consider seeding them come spring, he noted. But he said farmers will likely stick with their crop rotations in 2026/27, making a few adjustments.

Also, Schmidt pointed out that Canada and China are still going back and forth on trade issues. He wasn’t sure if pulses were going to be included in forthcoming trade discussions between Canada and India.

AAFC projections for 2026/27

On Jan. 21, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released its monthly supply and demand estimates, including their initial projections for 2026/27.

For dry peas, AAFC forecast planted area at 1.20 million hectares, down from 1.42 million in 2025/26. The yield is expected to drop from 2.85 tonnes per hectare to 2.43, with production slotted at 2.85 million tonnes, compared to 3.93 million last year.

Total domestic use is to remain relatively stable at 680,000 tonnes and exports are bump up by 200,000 tonnes at 2.70 million. Ending stocks are to retreat from 1.27 million tonnes to 755,000.

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“I got a good bid from a broker today that is $0.50 a bushel better than it was,” said the chair of Pulse Canada.

“We still have a way to go. We were getting $12 to $14 a bu. a year ago for peas and now it’s more like eight bucks.”

China agreed to eliminate tariffs on Canadian peas and canola meal and to greatly reduce tariffs on canola seed in exchange for concessions on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.

WHY IT MATTERS: Peas were facing tariffs in its top two markets.

Youzwa said that agreement has lifted the gloom and doom that has been hanging over the pea market since March 2025.

“Today we look ahead with some optimism,” he said.

“We look forward to those signals entering the marketplace and creating some optimism. It is definitely a good day.”

He expects further price increases once grain handlers figure out all the logistics. There should be enough time to move old crop peas in a meaningful way before the next crop comes off in August and September.

That’s a good thing because working capital has been depleted on many farms, and growers are having to sell crops to meet cash flow requirements and pay the bills.

Youzwa said there is still plenty of time for farmers to adjust their seeding plans to factor in the new realities of China reopening to peas and canola.

He added that the price boost canola and peas will be getting should also lift prices for other crops competing for acres in 2026.

The Canadian Canola Growers Association sponsored a study by LeftField Commodity Research that determined Canada’s canola farmers have lost $2 to $4 billion from the closure of the Chinese market.

The CCGA intends to lobby Ottawa for compensation for that loss.

“In the case of pulses, we haven’t crossed that bridge yet,” said Youzwa.

He said growers prefer to get their returns from the marketplace, but the losses have been significant.

The five-year average of Canadian pea movement to China is 1.6 million tonnes per year valued at $743 million annually.

Pea growers not only lost the Chinese market but are facing 30 per cent tariffs in India as well.

Those two markets account for 75 to 80 per cent of Canada’s annual pea exports, so the impact on peas is more pronounced than it has been for canola.

Prices are down about 43 per cent, said Youzwa.

However, the pulse sector is still uncertain whether it wants to follow canola’s lead in lobbying Ottawa for financial aid.

“Time will tell where this goes,” said Youzwa.

“We haven’t reached that decision as an organization.”

In the meantime, he is looking forward to a “transparent, commercial and meaningful” trade relationship with China getting back on track.

“This is a positive for exporters, processors, railways, ports and growers,” he said.

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‘General malaise’

Lentils, peas and other pulses in Western Canada remained largely unchanged during the holiday season, but Boersch said there’s a “general malaise” that continues to hang over the Canadian pulse market.

One aspect she cited was China’s tariffs on its imports of Canadian peas. Another being the duties Turkey had in place on its lentil imports.

“Both of those countries, their overall import numbers are actually up over last year, it’s just that our market share is falling for a number of reasons,” Boersch said. “That’s really the crux of the problem.”

Reduced acres likely

Also, there’s an ample supply of green lentils while the situation is not as severe with the reds. She noted that it will take some time to reduce that supply and the carryout for 2025/26 will increase.

“That changes the outlook completely. It changes the willingness to contract and affix prices,” Boersch said, noting that planted pea and lentil acres are likely to decline this spring.

“The other commodities don’t look like shining stars either,” she added.

Lentil, pea prices

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported lentil prices were almost all unchanged for the week ended Jan. 6. The Lairds ranged from 11.5 to 26 cents per pound, delivered depending on the size. Estons were 14 to 24.5 cents/lb. Richleas 9.5 to 22 cents/lb. Crimsons 12 to 23 cents/lb.

Green peas remained in place at C$8.50 to C$10.50 per bushel delivered, but the yellows climbed nine cents at C$6.50 to C$7.46/bu.

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China with the first blow

China dealt a serious blow to Canada’s yellow pea exports in March, as Beijing slapped 100 per cent tariffs on its imports of the pulse crop from Canada, as well as canola oil and meal. The move was a retaliatory measure against Ottawa’s earlier action to impose 100 per cent duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles and 25 per cent on steel and aluminum that went into effect in October 2024.

Pulse Canada said about 500,000 tonnes of Canadian yellow peas in total were exported to China in 2024, with average annual exports of around 1.50 million.

Data from the Canadian Grain Commission showed China’s pea imports from licensed facilities in 2025/26 are a mere 70,400 tonnes. That represents less than eight per cent of the nearly 892,000 tonnes Canada has shipped out so far this year. In 2024/25, China already took in 263,000 tonnes, which were more than 26 per cent of Canada’s pea exports.

India with the second blow

Then throughout much of 2025, India has played something of a cat and mouse game with a series of extensions to its duty exemptions on yellow pea imports. A lack of domestic supply and rising prices led the Indian government to suspend its duties, but not without some bumps along the way.

Back in March, there was a great deal of uncertainty as to what New Delhi was up to as it had missed its own deadline to announce another extension or impose tariffs. Almost two weeks late, New Delhi said it extended the duty-free period to the end of May.

Things seemed to be just fine with India until the proverbial wheels came off the bus at the end of October. Rumblings within the market proved to be true when New Delhi slapped 30 per cent tariffs on all of is yellow pea imports, even though it said earlier the duty-free period would last until March 2026.

Declining prices led India’s pulse growers to push for the duties to be reinstated, and a lot earlier than what the government planned.

Prices & production

Currently, yellow pea prices across Western Canada are C$6.50 to C$7.38 per bushel delivered as of Dec. 19, Prairie Ag Hotwire reported. During 2025, the yellows topped off at a high of C$11.40 and they were C$5.94 at their lowest point.

As for production, Statistics Canada placed the 2025/26 total dry pea harvest at 3.93 million tonnes, up from slightly below three million the previous year.

In Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s December supply and demand report, it raised the dry pea carryover to 1.57 million tonnes from 1.20 million in November and 489,000 in 2024/25.

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“Due to a lack of immediate catalysts and seasonal logistical challenges, I don’t believe that there will be significant changes until the new year,” Sargsyan said.

In StatCan’s principal field crop report issued on Dec. 4, it pegged the 2025/26 dry pea harvest at 3.93 million tonnes. That’s nearly 31.3 per cent more from the previous year and well above the five-year average of 3.17 million tonnes.

StatCan put harvested area for 2025/26 at 1.38 million hectares, up from 1.28 million the previous year. Yields climbed to 2.85 tonnes per hectare from 2.34 in 2024/25.

Over the last week, the price for green peas has dropped 75 cents at C$7.50 to C$10.25 per bushel delivered across the western Canada, Prairie Ag Hotwire reported on Dec. 16. Yellow peas lost 50 cents at C$6.50 to C$7.50/bu. delivered.

Trade issues has curtailed any possible hope for a major upswing in pea prices. Earlier this year, China included yellow peas in their 100 per cent tariffs on Canadian canola oil and meal, and more recently, India reimposed its import duties on yellow peas.

“Yellow pea pricing upside will be limited by the increased supply, and the tariffs from the major importers (India/China). There is demand from alternative markets which may cause small rallies. We have seen this from domestic opportunities in southeastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, which farmers are taking advantage of,” Sargsyan said.

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Lentils

Canada’s lentil crop was projected to total 3.363 million tonnes this marketing year, more than StatCan’s September estimate of 2.972 million and the 2024-25 total of 2.431 million. If realized, it would be the largest lentil crop ever recorded in Canada, surpassing the previous record of 3.194 million tonnes in 2016-17. Pre-report trade estimates ranged from 3.1 million to 3.5 million tonnes.

Peas

StatCan forecasted the dry pea crop at 3.934 million tonnes, up from its September estimate of 3.563 million and last year’s total of 2.997 million. It would be the largest pea crop since 2020-21 when production came out to 4.594 million. The trade earlier estimated Canada’s pea production to be between 3.8 million and four million tonnes.

Chickpeas

Canada’s chickpea production is set to make a big jump from last year, with the 2025-26 estimate at 481,589 tonnes. StatCan estimated this year’s chickpea crop at 331,000 tonnes in September, compared to last year’s total of 286,768 tonnes. It would also become Canada’s largest chickpea crop, exceeding the 455,000 tonnes grown in 2001-02.

Edible beans

Dry beans for 2025-26 were projected at 437,935 tonnes, up from the September estimate of 351,800 tonnes and slightly higher than the 424,141 tonnes reported for 2024-25. The crop would be the largest since 2020-21, which was 489,500 tonnes.

Of the total, navy (white) beans were estimated to be up 34 per cent on the year at 91,000 tonnes, while coloured beans were down three per cent at 347,000 tonnes.

Faba beans

Faba bean production in Canada for this marketing year was pegged at 71,176 tonnes, down from last year’s total of 87,833. StatCan did not publish an estimate in September. The crop would be the smallest since 2021-22, recorded at 68,475 tonnes.

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