“The crop this year was just huge,” Shiels said of the 2025/26 harvest.

3.92 million tonnes

Statistics Canada pegged the oat harvest at 3.92 million tonnes, up from 3.36 million in 2024/25.

“We really didn’t have a big increase in acres, we just had a really good crop on almost every one of those acres,” he added. “It’s really burdensome on the market.”

The December report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada placed the planted oat area for 2025/26 at about 1.21 million hectares compared to 1.17 million the previous year. The yield improved to 3.74 tonnes per hectare from 3.38.

Less to be planted in spring

Shiels said a common projection in the trade has called for a three per cent decline in oat acres, although one estimate he said predicted a 12 per cent drop.

“The carryout is going to be huge, maybe 700,000 to 750,000 tonnes,” Shiels said. “That’s the largest in a long time.

AAFC projected oat ending stocks at the high end as exports are expected to only bump up to 2.65 million tonnes from 2.57 million and total domestic use is to climb to 1.05 million tonnes from 972,000.

‘Oats at a loss’

With that in mind, Shiels said some country elevators are already below C$3 per bushel for old crop oats. He noted new crop bids are in the C$3.25 to C$3.50 range.

“Those are planting oats at a loss,” Shiels warned.

The post Big oat crop in 2025/26 pointing to less acres next year appeared first on Country Guide.

The nearby futures have moved below US$3 per bushel for the first time in nearly five years, while cash bids in Saskatchewan are well below C$4 per bushel.

“Everything is down, which doesn’t help,” said Scott Shiels of Grain Millers in Yorkton, Sask., noting that there was no spillover support coming from other grains like wheat, barley or corn.

“For right now, there’s nothing bullish out there to drive (prices) higher.”

While better pricing opportunities were available earlier in the growing season, “it’s not a great fall pricing-wise for guys if they didn’t do stuff ahead of time,” said Shiels. He expected there may not be much more room to the downside but added that any move higher likely won’t occur until the New Year as end users are covered for now.

He said farmer selling remained steady despite the softer prices, attributing some of that activity to the logistics of storing oats.

“If you have a good crop of oats, it takes up a lot more space than a good crop of canola or wheat … If you get the option to move it before the snow flies, you take it,” said Shiels.

Quality of Canada’s oats was generally good, with about three quarters of the crop off the field before rains led to quality issues with the final quarter of the harvest. Shiels said there was plenty of good quality milling oats, although there may also be more feed quality oats looking for a home than in recent years.

Most feeders will be looking for barley and wheat before oats and won’t want to adjust their rations unless they can guarantee a long-term supply of oats, so anybody with feed quality oats will need to market it aggressively, added Shiels.

The post ‘Nothing bullish’ for sliding oats market appeared first on Country Guide.

The report noted there was some uneven ripening in the wetter areas of the province.

Harvest progress

Among Alberta’s five agricultural regions, the south was furthest along at 33 per cent, progressing 13 points on the week. The northwest was second at 24 per cent done, advancing 18 points, followed by the Peace at 20 per cent finished, up 12 points. The northeast was next at 18 per cent harvested, climbing 14 points, and then the central region at 16 per cent complete, moving 13 points.

Crop-wise, Alberta’s dry peas were 77 per cent combined, progressing 27 points over the week. Spring barley and wheat were next at 29 and 26 per cent done, respectively. The wheat advanced 20 points and the barley was up 18. Oats were at 17 per cent finished, adding 14 points and the canola tallied three per cent complete, up from less than one per cent last week.

Soil moisture levels

While the weather conditions were favourable to field operations, they reduced soil moisture levels. The surface soil rated 45 per cent good to excellent, down 12 points, but two above the five-year average.

By region, the central was far ahead of the others at 67 per cent good to excellent. The Peace rated 38 per cent good to excellent, with the south and northeast at 36 per cent and the northwest at 35 per cent.

Alberta’s sub-surface moisture levels were 46 per cent good to excellent, losing eight points but five above its five-year average.

The week’s weather also slowed pasture growth, with some starting to turn brown. The province’s pastures were 44 per cent good to excellent and still above the five-year average of 35 per cent. As for the tame hay, it rated 38 per cent good to excellent, giving up six points on the week and was five under its five-year average.

The post Good weather for Alberta harvest appeared first on Country Guide.

The provincial agriculture department said crop ratings rose two points at 61 per cent good to excellent. Among the major crops the good to excellent totals were:

• Spring wheat up two points at 62 per cent

• Barley up two points at 63 per cent

• Oats up two points at 60 per cent

• Dry peas hold at 60 per cent

• Canola holds at 58 per cent

There’s a wide variation among Alberta’s regions, with northwest leading at 77 per cent good to excellent but the Peace is the worst off at a mere 23 per cent.

For crop development, the report said spring cereals are ahead in their growth with most in the booting stage. The cereals in the south were beginning to form heads.

Of the broadleaf crops, those flowering were:

• Lentils 58 per cent

• Dry peas 53 per cent

• Canola 42 per cent

• Mustard 42 per cent

• Chickpeas 35 per cent

Also, 48 per cent of Alberta canola was in the rosette stage and 43 per cent of the dry peas were in the seven-to-12 node stage.

Meanwhile the province’s soil rating lost eight points on the week at 57 per cent good to excellent. Tops in Alberta was the central region at 82 per cent and the Peace came in at 31 per cent.

The report said June rains helped soil moisture levels in the south, central and northwest regions, but below normal levels persist in the northeast and Peace as well as in some parts of the south.

Tame hay quality improved five points to 42 per cent good to excellent and the first cut is underway. Dryland hay quality rated 54 per cent good to excellent and that on irrigated land was 82 per cent. Alberta’s pastures are at 49 per cent good to excellent.

The post Alberta crop ratings nudge up appeared first on Country Guide.

The ag department said farmers were 99 per cent done planting in the southwest, west-central and northeast regions, while the northwest was at 98 per cent, with the southeast and east-central a bit further back at 95 per cent.

By crop, growers across the province were finished seeding their field peas, while spring wheat was at 99 per cent complete. Also in the upper 90’s are durum, barley, triticale, flax, canola, mustard, lentils. In the lower 90’s, oats and chickpeas. Further back were canary seed at 89 per cent complete, perennial forage at 77 per cent, and soybeans bringing up the rear at 74 per cent.

The crop report noted a lack of rain further reduced topsoil moisture levels. Saskatchewan was rated at one per cent surplus, 46 per cent adequate and 44 per cent short, and nine per cent very short.

Cereals

Despite the dryness, farmers have seen good crop emergence with some spottiness in their later planted crops. Provincewide among the spring cereals, durum was rated the best at 76 per cent good to excellent, followed by canary seed at 71 per cent. Next were barley at 67 per cent good to excellent, with spring wheat at 64 per cent, triticale at 62 per cent and oats at 61 per cent.

For winter cereals, the fall rye was at 64 per cent good to excellent and the winter wheat was at 58 per cent.

Oilseeds & Pulses

Among the oilseeds, soybeans topped the list at 85 per cent good to excellent, then flax at 74 per cent, mustard at 67 per cent and canola at 57 per cent.

Chickpeas led the pulses and all crop at 86 per cent good to excellent with lentils at 79 per cent and field peas at 75 per cent.

The report noted crop damage has been minor this year, but with several causes. Those included dryness, wind, heat, wildfires, insects and gophers.

The post Saskatchewan few points short of wrapping up spring planting appeared first on Country Guide.

Southern Alberta remained furthest along with planting reaching 97 per cent finished, advancing 10 points on the week. The northwest climbed 20 points, reaching 93 per cent done, followed by the central region at 89 per cent seeded on a gain of 16 points. The province’s northeast reached 86 per cent in the ground, up 22 points and the Peace leapt forward 23 points at 84 per cent complete.

By major crop, the planting of Alberta’s dry peas was virtually finished at 99 per cent, with the spring with at 97 per cent. Barley followed at 89 per cent done, the canola at 83 per cent and the oats at 74 per cent.

Provincewide crop emergence improved 26 points over the week, hitting 57 per cent. By region, the central was at 65 per cent, Peace at 64 per cent and the south at 62 per cent. Lagging behind were the northeast at 46 per cent and the northwest at 42 per cent.

As for surface soil moisture, the province was at 56 per cent good to excellent, down eight points from the previous week. The crop report noted that dry winds were largely responsible for the declines.

When it came to subsoil moisture levels, most of Alberta saw declines except for the central region which was up three points at 80 per cent good to excellent. A distant second was Peace at 52 per cent good to excellent but dropped 17 points on the week. The Peace was third at 50 per cent, the northeast at 41 per cent and the south at 39 per cent. Overall, the province was at 53 per cent.

The post As seeding nears end in Alberta, moisture becoming an issue appeared first on Country Guide.

Progress in southern Alberta continued to be far ahead of the rest of the province at 76 per cent, up 30 points on the week. However, producers also made strong progress in the other regions:

• Central advanced 31 points at 51 per cent done

• Northeast also progressed 31 points at 37 per cent finished

• Northwest is up 21 points at 29 per cent complete

• Peace River pushed 17 points at 27 per cent seeded.

By crop, emergence

By crop, Alberta’s dry peas were furthest along at 74 per cent seeded, followed by the spring wheat at 66 per cent. Barley was next, near the halfway point with canola at 24 per cent finished and oats at 17 per cent.

The report cited overall emergence at 10 per cent, seven points more than the five-year average. By region that worked out to be 19 per cent in the central, 15 per cent in the south, five in the northwest, and three in the northeast and Peace.

Moisture levels

Surface soil moisture levels, from the ground to six inches down, rated 59 per cent good to excellent, virtually on par with the five-year average. Recent precipitation helped to improve some ratings, but there were declines in others:

• Central up 20 points at 85 per cent G-E

• Peace down 11 points at 56 per cent G-E

• South dipped two points at 50 per cent G-E

• Northeast climbed 13 points at 45 per cent G-E

• Northwest held at 41 per cent G-E

Of note, no part of Alberta had any excessive surface soil moisture levels.

The report placed pasture growth conditions at 59 per cent good to excellent provincewide, 11 points above the five-year average. Alberta’s tame hay also came in at 59 per cent good to excellent, 15 points ahead of average.

The post Alberta seeding leaps ahead by almost 30 points appeared first on Country Guide.

Also in the StatCan report, all wheat stocks declined moderately and there were other significant changes.

StatCan estimated canola stocks as of March 31 at 5.87 million tonnes. That’s down from 9.58 million the same time last year and the five-year average of 8.28 million. Canola’s drop from March-to-March was the largest decline in the report.

There has been little doubt in the trade that Canada’s 2024/25 canola supplies have been rapidly shrinking due to the improved exports and domestic use compared to last year’s numbers. There have been suggestions that price rationing is required to curb demand.

Thoughts in the trade suggested StatCan could be as much as 1.50 million short on its estimate for the 2024/25 canola harvest of 17.84 million tonnes.

As for all wheat, the agency placed March 31 stocks at 15.42 million tonnes, for a dip of 180,000 from a year ago and moving further below the five-year average of 15.68 million tonnes.

At two million tonnes, durum stocks bumped up 52,000 tonnes while remaining well short of the 2.47 million-tonne average.

The largest increase in March 31 stocks was with dry peas. StatCan estimated an increase of 401,000 tonnes at 1.36 million, which was still under the five-year average of 1.48 million.

The post Sharp drop in canola stocks appeared first on Country Guide.

Manitoba Agriculture said about half of the spring wheat in the central and Interlake regions has been seeded. As well as corn, barley and oats were going into the ground along with canola, sunflowers, soybeans and field peas.

Survival rates for fall rye and winter wheat look good so far, with up to 90 per cent of both crops in the central region. Most of those winter crops have been fertilized. Also, numerous hay fields have been fertilized while current supplies remain adequate.

Overall, planting progress advanced five points on the week. The current pace is twice that this time last year and two points ahead of the five-year average.

Fields throughout most of Manitoba have dried out and can support farm machinery.

An overhanging factor is continuing good soil moisture. The report said the most precipitation was nearly 13 millimetres in the Virden area, with Gardenton in eastern Manitoba next at five. Most regions are well below their precipitation levels, except for the southeast with more than 100 per cent compared to its 30-year average.

The post Seeding in Manitoba picking up the pace appeared first on Country Guide.

The department said there have been small amounts of peas, spring wheat and oats primarily seeded in the central, eastern and Interlake regions of the province. Meanwhile, no oilseed crops have been planted to date.

Planting projections

Statistics Canada forecast Manitoba farmers to seed 3.22 million acres of spring wheat this year, up from 3.18 million in 2024. Planted canola acres were projected at 3.12 million, down from last year’s 3.34 million. Soybean acres are to expand to 1.63 million this year from 1.43 million in 2024.

The report noted Manitoba’s winter wheat and fall rye survived the winter in good condition. However, a better assessment for winterkill will be made after the first stretch of warm weather.

Moisture conditions

As for soil moisture, Manitoba Ag reported good conditions in the province’s northwest and Interlake. There are concerns about low levels in the eastern and southern regions.

While numerous areas of the province received little to no rain over the last week, an area from Findlay to Reston in the southwest had up to 44 millimeters.

The amount of spring run-off depended on the region, with the central and southwest seeing minimal to average flows. Numerous fields in the northwest and the Interlake were saturated.

Most of the province’s cattle remained in their winter-feeding areas as there has been limited forage growth on pastures and hayfields. The report said there are still adequate supplies of hay.

The post First Manitoba crop report says seeding slightly ahead of pace appeared first on Country Guide.