WHY IT MATTERS: Highly pathogenic avian influenza has led to the culling of hundreds of millions of farmed birds in recent years — including among many Canadian farms — disrupting food supplies and increasing prices.

Outbreaks typically peak in autumn as migratory birds head south, but this season saw earlier cases, killing many wild birds, mainly common cranes along the German, French, and Spanish routes as well as a large number of waterfowl.

Between September 6 and November 28, 2,896 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 virus detections – mostly H5N1 – were reported in domestic birds in 29 countries in Europe, with 442 in poultry and 2,454 in wild birds, EFSA said in a report.

“We are currently seeing an unprecedented sharp increase in the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus detections, mostly in wild birds,” Lisa Kohnle, scientific officer at EFSA, told Reuters.

Poultry outbreak numbers were similar to previous years but five times higher than in 2023, and almost double those of 2021. Turkeys were the most affected.

“What is interesting for poultry is that in previous years those epidemics were characterised by a lot of farm-to-farm spread,” Kohnle said. “This year it seems we mostly have introduction from wild birds”.

For humans, bird flu infected 19 people in four countries (Cambodia, China, Mexico and the U.S.), killing one in Cambodia and one in the U.S, EFSA said. All cases involved exposure to poultry or poultry environments.

Bird flu outbreaks in mammals were fewer than in 2022 and 2023, but remain a concern due to potential mutations that would make it transmissible between humans.

Kohnle said detections were likely to keep rising, although high wild bird mortality could prompt tighter farm controls and help slow the virus’s spread.

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The highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly called bird flu, has led to the culling of hundreds of millions of farmed birds in the past few years, disrupting food supplies and driving up prices. Human infections remain rare.

While outbreaks typically spike in the northern hemisphere autumn as migratory birds fly south, they appeared earlier and in greater numbers in Europe and the U.S., affecting both wild birds and poultry.

More outbreaks than previous seasons

In the U.S., 107 outbreaks were reported by November 18, nearly four times last year’s total. Minnesota, the country’s largest turkey producing state, confirmed its first case two months earlier than in 2022.

“It’s certainly more than we’ve seen over the last few winter-fall migratory bird seasons,” said Tim Boring, director of the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development of Michigan, another large turkey state.

“I think it’s part of this ongoing pattern… we’re still well within this current outbreak that’s lasted several years now,” he said.

The U.S. has already culled about 8 million birds since September, a slight increase from last year, government data showed.

Canada, which has a smaller poultry flock than the U.S., has also culled nearly 8 million birds. Canadian Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald said the bird flu situation was getting “very worrisome”.

“Wild birds seem to be carrying more of this disease. So it’s scary in some ways,” he told Reuters.

The World Organization for Animal Health said the early outbreaks were concerning but not alarming.

“There should not be a public health alarm. An increase in number of cases could have different explanations. What we need to observe is the actual virus itself,” said Gregorio Torres, head of WOAH’s scientific department.

Different wild birds affected

In Europe, the situation was also more severe than last year, with Germany recording the highest number of outbreaks in three years.

Between early September and mid-November, 1,443 cases of bird flu were detected in wild birds in 26 European countries – a fourfold increase compared with the same period in 2024 and the highest since 2016, the European food safety agency EFSA said.

“What’s new this season? It’s not exactly the same birds that are being affected. This time, we’ve seen contamination occur earlier among wild birds, and now we’re starting to detect cases that are spreading to farmed birds,” French health security agency ANSES Deputy Director General Gilles Salvat told reporters on Thursday.

Salvat pointed to common cranes – which typically migrate earlier than waterfowl species such as ducks, geese and swans – as a major factor behind the outbreak, which spread from northeast to southwest Europe, with high fatalities in Germany and France.

France put its poultry sector on high alert in October, much earlier than in previous years.

The situation was more normal in most of Asia except for Cambodia, which has seen severe bird flu outbreaks, while Japan reported its first case on October 22 – five days later than last year. About 1.65 million birds have been culled so far in Japan.

— Additional reporting by Tom Polansek in Chicago, Leah Douglas in Washington, Ed White in Winnipeg, Peter Hobson in Canberra, Michael Hogan in Hamburg, Emma Pinedo in Madrid, Yuka Obayashi in Tokyo.

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The highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly called bird flu, has led to the culling of hundreds of millions of birds in the past few years, disrupting food supplies and driving up prices, though human infections remain rare.

“What we fear is the virus adapting to mammals, and particularly to humans, becoming capable of human-to-human transmission, and that virus would be a pandemic virus,” Marie-Anne Rameix-Welti, medical director at the Institut Pasteur’s respiratory infections centre, told Reuters.

The Institut Pasteur was among the first European labs to develop and share COVID-19 detection tests, making protocols available to the World Health Organization and labs worldwide.

No antibodies against H5 bird flu

People have antibodies against common H1 and H3 seasonal flu, but none against the H5 bird flu affecting birds and mammals, like they had none against COVID-19, she said.

And unlike COVID-19, which mainly affects vulnerable people, flu viruses can also kill healthy individuals, including children, Rameix-Welti said.

“A bird flu pandemic would probably be quite severe, potentially even more severe than the pandemic we experienced,” she said in her Paris laboratory.

There have been many cases of people infected by H5 bird flu viruses in the past, including the H5N1 currently circulating among poultry and dairy cows in the U.S., but these were often in close contact with infected animals. A first ever human case of H5N5 appeared in the U.S. state of Washington this month. The man, who had underlying conditions, died last week.

In its latest report on bird flu, the WHO said there had been nearly 1,000 outbreaks in humans between 2003 and 2025 – mainly in Egypt, Indonesia and Vietnam, of which 48 per cent had died.

Human pandemic risk still low

However, the risk of a human pandemic developing remains low, Gregorio Torres, head of the Science Department at the World Organization for Animal Health, told Reuters.

“We need to be prepared to respond early enough. But for the time being, you can happily walk in the forest, eat chicken and eggs and enjoy your life. The pandemic risk is a possibility. But in terms of probability, it’s still very low,” he said.

Rameix-Welti also said that if bird flu was to mutate to be able to be transmitted between humans, the world was better prepared than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The positive point with flu, compared to COVID, is we have specific preventative measures in place. We have vaccine candidates ready and know how to manufacture a vaccine quickly,” she said.

“We also have stocks of specific antivirals, that, in principle, would be effective against this avian influenza virus,” she added.

— Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide and Lucien Libert

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The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 128.0 points in June, up 0.5 per cent from May. The index stood 5.8 per cent higher than a year ago, but remained 20.1 per cent below its record high in March 2022.

Cereals mixed, vegetable oils up

The cereal price index fell 1.5 per cent to 107.4 points, now 6.8 per cent below a year ago, as global maize prices dropped sharply for a second month. Larger harvests and more export competition from Argentina and Brazil weighed on maize, while barley and sorghum also declined.

Wheat prices, however, rose due to weather concerns in Russia, the European Union, and the United States.

The vegetable oil price index rose 2.3 per cent from May to 155.7 points, now 18.2 per cent above its June 2024 level, led by higher palm, rapeseed, and soy oil prices.

Palm oil climbed nearly five per cent from May on strong import demand, while soy oil was supported by expectations of higher demand from the biofuel sector following announcements of supportive policy measures in Brazil and the United States.

Sugar prices dropped 5.2 per cent from May to 103.7 points, the lowest since April 2021, reflecting improved supply prospects in Brazil, India, and Thailand.

Meat prices rise

Meat prices rose to a record 126.0 points, now 6.7 per cent above June 2024, with all categories rising except poultry. Beef set a new peak, reflecting tighter supplies from Brazil and strong demand from the United States. Poultry prices continued to fall due to abundant Brazilian supplies.

The dairy price index edged up 0.5 per cent from May to 154.4 points, marking a 20.7 per cent annual increase.

In a separate report, the FAO forecast global cereal production in 2025 at a record 2.925 billion tonnes, 0.5 per cent above its previous projection and 2.3 per cent above the previous year.

The outlook could be affected by expected hot, dry conditions in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly for maize with plantings almost complete.

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The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 127.7 points in May, reflecting a 0.8 per cent decrease from the April figure.

Why it matters: Declining food prices are good for consumers, but cut into farmers’ returns.

The May reading was up six per cent from a year earlier but over 20 per cent below a March 2022 peak following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that started a devastating war between two of the world’s leading grains producers.

The FAO cereal price index fell 1.8 per cent month-on-month, led by a sharp drop in global corn prices. Strong harvests and ample supplies in Argentina and Brazil, along with expectations of a record crop in the United States, weighed on prices.

Wheat prices edged lower due to improved crop conditions in the northern hemisphere.

By contrast, rice prices rose 1.4 per cent, supported by firm demand for fragrant varieties and currency movements.

Vegetable oil prices declined 3.7 per cent from April, with declines across all major oils. Palm oil prices fell due to seasonal output increases in Southeast Asia. Soy oil prices dropped on higher South American supplies and weak demand for biofuel.

Rapeseed oil eased on improved European Union supply prospects, while sunflower oil declined amid weak global demand.

The FAO sugar price index decreased by 2.6 per cent, reflecting concerns over the global economic outlook, weaker demand from food and beverage industries, and expectations of a production recovery next season.

Meat prices rose 1.3 per cent from April. Beef, pork and sheep meat prices increased, with beef reaching a record high. Poultry prices declined, pressured by surplus supplies in Brazil following import restrictions linked to a bird flu outbreak.

The FAO dairy price index rose 0.8 per cent, supported by strong demand from Asia. Butter prices remained at historic highs, while cheese and whole milk powder prices also increased.

Global cereal production to rise

In a separate report, the FAO forecast record global cereal production of 2.911 billion tonnes in 2025, up from 2.848 billion in its previous estimate and 2.1 per cent above 2024.

With production expected to surpass consumption, global cereal stocks are anticipated to grow by 1.0 per cent, partially recovering from last year’s contraction.

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WHY IT MATTERS: Global trade patterns are shifting amid new U.S. tariff policies

The concerns come ahead of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s official visit to France and the expiry on Thursday of a free trade deal with Ukraine, which is expected to shift to import quotas this summer.

Lula said on Tuesday he would discuss the EU-Mercosur deal with President Emmanuel Macron, a strong critic of the agreement in its current form, which was finalised in December but still needs approval from member states.

In a meeting with members of parliament, French farmers’ groups urged Macron to rally enough partners to form a blocking minority against the Mercosur deal, which they say would be devastating for the beef, poultry and sugar industries and compromise the EU’s ambitions in terms of food sovereignty.

“It would be a real tragedy for our industry,” Alain Carre, head of French sugar industry group AIBS said. “We’re sounding the alarm.”

French farmers held nationwide protests last year over low incomes, rising costs, and competition from cheap imports, particularly from Ukraine and Mercosur countries, demanding fairer trade terms and lighter regulation.

“Our demands (for an EU-Mercosur agreement) are simple: reciprocity of rules, traceability abroad and much clearer labelling,” Jean-Michel Schaeffer, head of French poultry industry group Anvol, said.

Meanwhile, a few hundred farmers protested in Madrid against cheap grain imports from Ukraine and other countries, saying prices have fallen below production costs.

Spanish farmers are likely to lose 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) this year, said Javier Fatas, a leader of farmers union COAG from the Aragon region in northeastern Spain.

“This happens because of trade deals signed by Spain and the EU as part of geopolitics, bringing us prices too low to sustain our farms,” Fatas said.

He warned that genetically modified grains from Mercosur also created unfair competition, echoing French farmers’ concerns.

Wednesday’s protest was peaceful, but only the beginning, he added. “Bad times are coming.”

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Brazil, the world’s top poultry exporter, confirmed its first-ever outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly called bird flu, in domestic birds last week, prompting export bans from several countries.

While most countries rely on culling policies and movement restrictions, the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) said vaccination could help reduce outbreaks while preserving trade.

Why it matters: Canadian poultry and egg producers have been plagued by frequent outbreaks of bird flu.

“Vaccination is a tool, it’s a very good tool when it exists, but it’s up to each country, region, or group of countries to identify in which case it will be useful to use it or not,” Director General Emmanuelle Soubeyran told Reuters ahead of the start of WOAH’s general assembly on Sunday.

More than 633 million birds have been lost to bird flu over the past two decades, the Paris-based WOAH said in a report on the state of animal health released on Friday. The disease has triggered mass culling, caused billions in economic damage, and disrupted food supply chains worldwide.

Bird flu has also spread to mammals, including dairy cows in the United States, and infected hundreds of people, raising concerns it could spark a new pandemic.

If properly implemented, vaccination limits virus spread, protects animal health, and lowers the risk of human infection. But it is costly to develop vaccines and roll them out, and vaccination programs often lead to trade restrictions over fears that a disease may circulate unnoticed.

In France, a nationwide duck vaccination effort helped cut bird flu outbreaks from over 300 to just 10 within a year. The United States and Canada eased their ban on French poultry imports in January, citing good traceability and monitoring.

Most bird flu vaccination campaigns focus on long-lived birds like ducks or breeders. Broilers—chickens raised for meat – are typically not vaccinated because they do not live long enough, which may limit immediate use in major poultry-exporting nations.

Vaccination has helped eliminate or control other animal diseases, including rinderpest in 2011, the first animal disease ever eradicated globally, and only the second of any kind eradicated after smallpox in humans, WOAH said in its report.

To address concerns that vaccinations may disrupt trade, WOAH is working on global standards to distinguish vaccinated birds from infected ones, the so-called DIVA principle.

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The temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade war, announced on Monday, would not help U.S. farmers revive soy sales in China as Chinese duties, even reduced to 10 per cent from 145 per cent, remained too high to make U.S. soybeans competitive, analysts and exporters said on the sidelines of the GrainCom conference in Geneva.

Why it matters: The trade dispute with China threatens U.S. farmers’ market share for soybeans in that country — market share that has already diminished due to past tensions with China.

U.S. soybean exports could slump to 1.5 billion bushels from an initial estimate of 1.865 billion without a substantive deal, AgResource President Dan Basse said.

Meanwhile U.S. corn exports could shed 13 per cent to 2.4 billion bushels, he said.

“It’s important that any U.S.-China trade deal happens by late summer or the export forecast will become reality, pressuring U.S. farm income. The clock is ticking,” Basse told Reuters.

Prices would also take a hit. In the absence of a deal, Basse sees U.S. soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade falling as low as $9 per bushel, compared to $10.6 a bushel traded on Wednesday.

In contrast, if a deal brought tariffs back to their previous level, soybean prices could surge as high as $13 a bushel, he added.

“We are creating a major advantage for other origins, mainly Brazil, and origins like Argentina,” Alejandra Casillo, president of the North American Export Grain Association, told Reuters, adding that even a 10 per cent tariff would halt U.S. grain exports to China.

China has been a critical market for U.S. farmers, representing more than half of U.S. soybean exports in the most recent marketing year.

However, American farmers worry the tariff pause will not be enough to help them, as Brazil, the biggest soy supplier to China, has ample supplies from a record harvest, lower prices, and its farmers do not face any Chinese tariffs.

China, the world’s largest crop importer, already sources roughly 70 per cent of its soybean imports from Brazil.

Corn and wheat would fall as low as $3.70 for corn from $4.40 on Wednesday, and $4.90 from $5.56 for wheat, he said.

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Beijing imposed 84 per cent tariffs on U.S. imports on Wednesday, April 9, to match U.S. President Donald Trump’s earlier moves, making U.S. grains less competitive on world markets. The trade war further escalated when Trump announced a 125 per cent tariff despite pausing reciprocal tariffs for most trading partners.

The EU has been a regular wheat supplier to China in recent years but demand has faded this season due to good local supplies.

Meanwhile EU retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, including maize (corn) from April 15, were expected to bring U.S. corn imports to a halt and eat into EU maize stocks next season, Strategie Grains said.

Further down the road, demand for EU grains could benefit from planned tariffs on U.S. soybeans, it also said. These are set to enter force on December 1.

In terms of supply and demand, Strategie Grains increased its forecast for EU soft wheat production in 2025/26, citing improved growing conditions.

The latest projection places EU soft wheat output at 128.1 million metric tons, up from 127.5 million tons forecast last month and now 13 per cent above last season’s rain-hit harvest.

“Although not spectacular, growing conditions for winter cereals improved in the EU27 thanks to the arrival of rains in the southeast EU countries, and a break in the rains across northwest Europe,” Strategie Grains said.

However, “cereals crops are not yet out of the woods and harvest time is still a long way off,” it added, citing excessive rainfall in Spain.

The consultancy also raised its barley production forecasts for 2025/26 by 600,000 tons, to 51.2 million tons, now up three per cent on year.

Maize production, is forecast to reach 60.1 million tons, up 100,000 tons from last month, and 2.9 per cent above last year.

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Why it matters: Canadian poultry farms have also suffered outbreaks of highly pathogenic bird flu in recent months and at least one person has been hospitalized with the illness

The spread of avian influenza, commonly called bird flu, has ravaged flocks around the world, disrupting supply and fueling higher food prices. Its spread to mammals, including dairy cows in the U.S., has raised concerns among governments about a risk of a new pandemic.

The strain that has caused most damage to poultry in recent years and the death of one person in the U.S. is the H5N1.

But the H7N9 bird flu virus has proved to have a far higher death rate, killing nearly 40 per cent of the humans infected since it was first detected in 2013, the World Health Organization said.

The latest outbreak of H7N9 was detected on a farm of 47,654 commercial broiler breeder chickens in Noxubee, Mississippi, the Paris-based World Animal Health Organization said in a report on Monday, citing U.S. Authorities.

“Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H7N9 of North American wild bird lineage was detected in a commercial broiler breeder chicken flock in Mississippi. Depopulation of the affected flock is in progress,” the report says.

“The USDA (Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), in conjunction with State Animal Health and Wildlife Officials, are conducting a comprehensive epidemiological investigation and enhanced surveillance in response to the detection,” it added.

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