Leduc, a fourth-generation producer who grows more than 10,000 acres of wheat, durum, mustard, canola, peas and lentils in an area dominated by grazing cattle, thinks that the long-awaited technological improvement, a plant that produces canola-like oil, could help him eke out a few more dollars per acre.

“All I’m trying to do is improve the bottom line of our farm,” he said.

WHY IT MATTERS: Mustard growers worry BASF’s InVigor Gold hybrid will destroy Canada’s condiment mustard industry. BASF says the oilseed could be grown safely in arid regions where canola routinely fails.

But Trent Dewar, who farms elsewhere in the Canadian semi-desert known as Palliser’s Triangle, fears the new GMO mustard plant will ruin the pure mustard he grows for the premium Dijon bottlers in France, the United States and Japan, as well as other specialty mustards. The industry is worth about $150 million (C$209 million) in exports annually — only a fraction of the $8.9 billion (C$12.4 billion) canola exports market. But in a geography where canola fails more often than it flourishes, mustard has been the lifeblood of many farms since growers started planting it 90 years ago.

“Everybody I’ve talked to personally is quite shell-shocked that this would even be considered,” he said.

Mustard is a tiny crop in Canada, with usually less than 200,000 metric tons of mustard produced by a few hundred farmers. Mustard production soars and sags with volatile world prices and local weather, like other specialty crops. Canadian canola growers, by contrast, usually plant more than 20 million acres of their crop, which produces upwards of 19 million metric tons. That makes canola Canada’s biggest source of crop income by far.

That’s why so many are excited about the drought-resistant GMO mustard plant. Global agricultural giant BASF hopes to win approval from Canadian and U.S. agencies for commercialization as soon as next year in the U.S. and a couple of years later in Canada.

It’s not without risk, however. The GMO plant looks nearly identical to a traditional mustard plant. Neighboring fields could be contaminated with seeds and pollen carried on the wind or by bees. Both traditional brown and oriental mustards and the new mustard canola are brassica junceas, so they can breed, with pollen from one type fertilizing the other.

“It has the potential of wrecking a whole industry,” said farmer Norm Hall, the chair of SaskMustard, which represents Saskatchewan’s mustard growers. The group is lobbying the government in Ottawa to keep the crop out of Canada.

Brent Collins, head of BASF’s seeds and traits division in Canada, said the crop was an “innovation” that would “truly unlock new canola acres, helping meet market demand.”

The French connection

France, which sources about half its mustard supplies from Canada, has a strict non-GMO standard. Other large global buyers are similarly stringent. Many Canadian mustard growers and sellers fear the door could slam shut if traces of the hybrid mustard-canola were detected.

“They look at it like a razor blade that shows up in a bag of rice,” said Peter Gorski of Broadgrain, a company that sells Canadian specialty crops like mustard to buyers around the world.

Foreign buyers have not said how they will respond if GMO traces appear. Most contracts contain a commitment to be non-GMO, and two contracts shared with Reuters contained that specification. A French law limits the presence of GMOs in the food supply, but the threshold of acceptable traces is mostly left to the buyer.

Christophe Planes, sales and marketing director for French mustard processor Reine de Dijon, said the GMO plant could spell trouble for Canadian exports.

About half of the company’s seeds are sourced from Canada, he said, adding: “We’re clearly committed to a non-GMO policy.”

“Since France is quite strict regarding GMOs we systematically check all our supplies to ensure that there are no traces, or very few traces,” Planes said.

Since Canada’s crippling drought of 2021, which hampered mustard production and triggered panic in French shoppers finding grocery store shelves bare of the condiment, France has boosted its own domestic supplies. There are other sources for mustard seed, such as Argentina, Germany and Ukraine, but Canadian mustard is both high quality and cheap, Planes said. Switching could affect quality and raise prices.

A flax grower’s nightmare, revisited

Canadian mustard growers are haunted by a historical precedent: tainted flax. Canada lost a well-paying and steady European market for flax when traces of a GMO variety called Triffid were found in European food products in 2009. Exports plunged and never recovered.

Mustard is an ancient crop, its seeds found in stone-age settlements of the Near East, in ancient Sumerian texts, and even in the tomb of Egypt’s Pharaoh Tutankhamun. In the Bible, Jesus of Nazareth told a parable about the mustard seed.

By contrast, the mustard-canola hybrid is a 21st-century scientific marvel, employing decades of traditional plant breeding and later GMO methods to produce a mustard plant that produces a version of canola oil, and that survives a herbicide controlling the plague of tumbleweeds in western North America. Many farmers in the mustard-growing region have been eagerly awaiting this new crop since the 1990s, but it has been a tortuous scientific development process. Canola is a cool-weather crop that thrives in northern latitudes like Canada, but climate change’s bouts of extreme heat and drought are expected to make it more challenging to grow.

Some of the original research into using a mustard plant to produce canola-like seed was done by scientists working for a farmers’ cooperative in the 1990s, as well as by university researchers. Now global agriculture giant BASF has brought what it calls InVigor Gold to the cusp of commercialization.

Traditional clashes with bold and new

From discussions with mustard and canola industry key players, it is clear that the two camps have sharply different assessments of whether the GMO mustard can flourish alongside traditional mustard.

“We know we can’t co-exist,” said Rick Mitzel, executive director of Sask Mustard.

BASF, however, thinks two million acres of its mustard-canola could be grown in arid areas of Canada and the U.S., with safeguards against pollen flow and seed spread between mustard and canola fields.

“We understand the areas that mustard growers are concerned about and it’s our responsibility to be able to explain what exactly we’re doing to be able to appease some of these concerns,” said Collins.

The two sides have sporadically met in recent years, but as the widespread release of the crop approaches, mustard growers and the mustard industry have grown desperate.

At an industry meeting this winter, mustard growers and merchants called for their representatives to take legal and political action to block the introduction of InVigor Gold. But Hall told them it would be an “uphill battle” because BASF is following the usual crop development protocols, and market impact is not considered during the Canadian crop approval processes.

Kacy Gehring of Mountain States Oilseeds, a U.S. mustard merchant in American Falls, Idaho, said the concern about GMO contamination destroying markets could trigger farmers to just stop growing mustard. That wouldn’t just be a problem for companies like hers, but also bad for world culinary culture, she said.

Farmer Leduc understands the worries of his mustard-growing neighbors, but doesn’t apologize for wanting to get InVigor Gold into his fields as soon as possible. Farming in an arid region isn’t easy, but it’s where his great-grandfather settled. He needs every survival tool he can get.

“I wish I was in a wetter part of the province,” he said.

— Additional reporting by Sybille de la Hamaide and Gus Trompiz in France.

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Planting of wheat, canola and other crops is set to gather pace this month across much of Australia and farmers need ample supplies of crop nutrients to support early growth.

The price of urea in Australia was quoted around A$1,350 (C$1,298) per ton this week, up about 60 per cent since the beginning of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, analysts said. Australian diesel prices are up 88 per cent over the same period.

“Farmers are trying to reduce fertilizer application and switching planting from nitrogen hungry crops like wheat and canola into feed barley,” said Dennis Voznesenski, an agricultural analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“Some are also reducing planted area, but this so far is minimal,” he said.

Australia’s wheat planting could drop by 10 per cent to 12 per cent given the current conditions, from 12.4 million hectares a year ago, an agricultural broker and an analyst said. Cultivation of canola is also likely to decline despite higher returns, they said. Both declined to be named.

Australia is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and No. 2 supplier of canola, selling to importers across Asia, the Middle East and Europe. It also sells crops such as barley, chickpeas and pulses.

Straight of Hormuz is fertilizer choke point

Farmers worldwide are struggling to secure fertilizer supplies as planting season in key countries gets underway, with the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 30 per cent of globally traded fertilizers, severely disrupted by the Iran war.

Bank of America warned that the conflict threatens 65 per cent to 70 per cent of global supplies of urea, a key nitrogen fertilizer, with prices already up 30 per cent to 40 per cent.

U.S. farmers plan to plant less corn and more soybeans in 2026 than last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said this week. China has curbed fertilizer exports, while India is tapping alternative sources to boost supplies for summer-sown crops.

Corn, wheat and canola usually require higher application of urea than barley and pulses.

“Australia typically relies on China for urea, but export curbs have limited shipments,” said StoneX analyst Josh Linville.

“Buyers turned to Indonesia, only to face further constraints there and by the time they sought supplies from the Middle East, the war had already started and the Strait of Hormuz had closed.”

Crops need fertilizer at the start of planting as well as in development and pre-maturity stages. Crops planted in April and May are harvested in November and December.

“It is a big issue as the cost of farming has risen sharply in the last one month,” said Tobin Gorey, founder of commodities consultancy Cornucopia in Sydney.

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Shares of Hellmann’s mayonnaise owner Unilever and Frank’s RedHot sauce maker McCormick fell on Tuesday following the announcement over concerns about the transaction’s structure, long path to closing and antitrust risks.

The top U.S. spice maker, home to more than 30 household brands, is playing the long game, some analysts said.

While many food companies are scrambling to reformulate products and resize portions as the surging popularity of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs reshapes eating habits, McCormick argues that flavor will remain essential even as calorie counts fall.

“We will continue to flavor calories while others compete for them,” McCormick CEO Brendan Foley, a packaged-food industry veteran, said on a call with investors on Tuesday.

“As consumers increasingly focus on cooking at home, adding more protein and produce, and pursuing healthier lifestyles, flavor plays a critical role in elevating those choices,” Foley said.

The GLP-1 bet

The surge in weight-loss drug use has consumers craving more flavor ‌in their food, leading to condiment and spice makers benefiting and attracting more interest in the M&A marketplace, dealmakers have said.

“Consumers shifting away from fatty, greasy, or overly sweet foods … creates a massive opportunity for flavor enhancers (spices and hot sauces) that provide sensory satisfaction without adding calories,” said Timothy Malefyt, professor of marketing at the Gabelli School of Business at Fordham University.

The deal will also help the U.S. company tap into Knorr stock cubes maker Unilever’s global scale and expertise, executives said on Tuesday’s investor call. Unilever executives highlighted its popular flavors such as Asian and Chinese.

“McCormick with this could be well-positioned to create the right nutritional functional benefit in food that is lacking in America right now,” said Mike Anstey, founder of Pilot Lite, a global CPG (consumer packaged goods) commercialization partner.

It would also open up key emerging markets such as Brazil, China and countries across Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA).

“(The deal) represents a step-change in scale, broadening MKC’s exposure to faster-growing emerging markets and expanding opportunities for its foodservice platform,” Jefferies analyst Scott Marks said in a note.

Unkind market conditions

McCormick is seeking new markets and flavors against the backdrop of a tough U.S. market, where consumers are eating healthier and also looking for cheaper pantry alternatives and smaller pack sizes to stretch budgets hit by inflation.

“We’re certainly aware of the near-term pressures facing not just the food industry but broadly … the conflict in the Middle East and the broader CPG space. However, we continue to believe in just the long-term fundamentals that really underpin the confidence in this combination,” McCormick’s Foley said.

The company’s total volume growth has slowed over the last year, and was down 0.7 per cent in the most recently reported quarter, falling across both its consumer brands and flavor solutions segments.

“Despite the combination’s strategic merits, we think this may be a ploy to incite growth in an industry where gains have stagnated,” said Erin Lash, analyst at Morningstar Research.

Rival Kraft Heinz, which media reports said had explored a bid for Unilever’s food business, underscored the tougher U.S. market when it paused plans for a split.

“Investors should look at this transaction more optimistically than broken deals like Kraft Heinz because it creates value through greater depth in a single category, flavorings, rather than diversification,” said TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow in a note.

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The moratorium, agreed at the dawn of the internet, lapsed for the first time in 28 years after World Trade Organization countries failed to agree on a routine extension.

Four days of talks among trade ministers in Cameroon’s capital Yaounde broke up in the early hours of Monday with Brazil and Turkey blocking a bid to extend the e-commerce moratorium, which including on digital downloads and streaming.

Countries also failed to agree on a path to reform.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement that he has secured agreements from dozens of countries, including nearly all major trading partners, not to impose tariffs on U.S. digital transmissions. He vowed that if the WTO fails to restore the moratorium, “the United States will work outside of the WTO with all interested partners to get it done.”

Greer, who is the architect of U.S. President Donald Trump’s multi-front tariff assault on global trading partners, said he was disappointed that the meeting ended in an impasse. He said some countries demonstrated a “lack of seriousness” in WTO reform by not sending their trade ministers to Cameroon.

“I have always been skeptical of the value of the WTO, and this week’s conference confirmed that this organization will play only a limited role in future global trade policy efforts,” Greer said.

Increasingly sidelined by economic nationalism

The WTO has been increasingly sidelined by economic nationalism in the past decade, and its 14th ministerial conference in Cameroon will further that trend, analysts said.

The talks tested the WTO’s relevance after a year of huge trade turmoil and more recent disruptions in the Middle East.

Still, a subset of 66 members did agree to sidestep previous hurdles to ‌usher in the world’s first baseline deal on digital trade rules among participants.

The parties of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership — 12 countries including Australia, Britain, Canada, Japanand Mexico but not the U.S. — met with the EU on the sidelines of the WTO talks.

As diplomats pursue a mix of agreements between two or larger subsets of countries, they risk creating a complex “spaghetti bowl” of agreements, said Dmitry Grozoubinski, executive director of the Geneva Trade Platform.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the trade body hoped the moratorium could still be restored, adding that Brazil and the U.S. were trying to reach agreement on it.

— Additional reporting by Emma Farge in Geneva and Lisandra Paraguassu in Brasilia and David Lawder in Washington, D.C.

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GDP rose by 0.1 per cent in January on a monthly basis after a 0.2 per cent gain in December, Statistics Canada said, pointing to a fragile start to the year.

An advance estimate, which is usually prone to change, showed the economy might expand by 0.2 per cent in February.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast no growth in January.

Canada’s economy has struggled in the wake of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on steel, autos, aluminum, lumber, copper and other products. The tariffs have dented Canadian manufacturing output.

CUSMA review looms

While exemptions under a free trade deal between the U.S., Mexico and Canada have protected other sectors, growth has been largely muted, with the Canadian economy contracting in the fourth quarter. An upcoming review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement is considered a major uncertainty looming over the economy.

Goods-producing industries, which account for a quarter of GDP, grew by 0.2 per cent in January, matching the gain of the previous month.

Mining, quarrying, construction and oil and gas extraction were the biggest growth drivers, helping to offset a 1.4 per cent drop in manufacturing output in January, StatsCan said.

The construction sector expanded for the third month in a row in January. The drop in manufacturing, the second-biggest contributor to monthly GDP, wiped out all the growth seen in December.

Service industries such as real estate, finance and healthcare are the biggest contributors to the Canadian economy, but growth in this category stalled in January, the statistical agency said.

Activity in the wholesale trade, transportation and real estate sectors shrank in January, offsetting growth in some major economic contributors such as retail, educational services and finance and insurance.

Overall, nine of the 20 industrial sectors recorded growth in January, StatsCan said.

Growth, inflation worries

Economists have said growth could take a bigger hit in the coming months as high crude oil prices resulting from the Iran war curtail consumer spending and push up inflation.

The Bank of Canada also could be forced to raise interest rates.

“The global energy price shock from the U.S.-Iran conflict is unlikely to derail Canada’s economy, but it compounds existing headwinds from U.S. tariffs, trade policy uncertainty and a shrinking population,” Michael Davenport, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note.

“Developments in the Middle East and the outcome of the mid-year USMCA (CUSMA) review remain highly uncertain, but will be pivotal to Canada’s economic prospects this year,” he said.

Money markets expect no change in interest rates at the Bank of Canada’s next meeting in April, but are pricing in one increase of 25 basis points in the second half of the year.

The Canadian dollar was down 0.07 per cent at C$1.3932 to the U.S. dollar, or 71.78 U.S. cents. Yields on two-year Canadian government bonds were down 4.7 basis points at 2.668 per cent.

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The four-day ministerial talks in Cameroon’s capital Yaounde ended in the early hours with Brazil blocking a bid by the U.S. and others to prolong a moratorium on duties for electronic transmissions like digital downloads and streaming.

“It marks another crack in the foundations of the WTO system,” said Andrew Wilson, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce, urging delegates to renew the moratorium before states hit digital services with new charges.

‘Major setback for global trade’

Expectations for progress had been low before the talks but there were hopes the moratorium – which has been regularly renewed since 1998 – would at least be extended.

That ultimately proved impossible. Trade ministers could not agree to extend it for more than two years, which was not enough for the United States, diplomats said.

U.S. officials and business groups voiced frustration, and Britain’s Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle called the failure to reach consensus a “major setback for global trade.”

The talks were deemed a test of the WTO’s relevance after a year of huge trade turmoil and more recent disruptions due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.Still, a subset of 66 members did agree to sidestep previous hurdles to ‌usher in the world’s first baseline deal on digital trade rules among participants.

Changes looked for

Prior to meetings, three items were expected to dominate talks wrote Jane Kelsey, an emeritus professor of law with the University of Auckland, in an article for the Conversation.

Those were:

• Decision making: reformers proposed a “responsible consensus” model rather than the current multilateral model, which gives all states an equal voice.
• Development and industrialization: this proposed to limit countries’ ability to define their own level of development, Kelsey wrote. “Special and differential treatment” would give them more time to adopt rules applied to more developed countries.
• Leveling the playing field: this was “essentially about China,” wrote Kelsey, which the U.S. says has gained an unfair advantage since joining the WTO. The U.S. wanted rules to restrict state support for industry and to limit application of “most-favoured-nation treatment.”

‘Spaghetti bowl’

Efforts to rebuild the WTO’s predictable trade terms are creating “a spaghetti bowl of free trade agreements, bilateral initiatives, and plurilaterals,” said Dmitry Grozoubinski, executive director of the Geneva Trade Platform think tank.

Agreeing on an e-commerce moratorium was seen as key to securing U.S support for the WTO, which under President Donald Trump has retreated from global multilateral bodies.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the trade body hoped the moratorium could be restored and that Brazil and the U.S. were trying to reach agreement on it.

The WTO said progress was made on a reform roadmap, and discussions on issues like reworking its rules to render subsidy use more transparent and facilitate decision-making are expected to continue in Geneva.

The U.S. and the European Union argue China in particular has taken advantage of current rules to their detriment.

Impasse could boost CPTPP

Diplomats worked throughout Sunday to close the gap between Brazil’s initial two-year proposal on the moratorium and the U.S., which wanted a permanent extension, by drafting a plan for a four-year extension with a one-year sunset buffer.

Brazil then offered a four-year extension with a mid-term review clause, but it lacked sufficient support.

Keith Rockwell, a trade analyst at the Hinrich Foundation and former WTO director, said Brazil’s efforts to leverage e-commerce for concessions on agriculture had failed because the U.S. was no longer so invested in the WTO.

“In the old days because they felt responsibility for the system the Americans would have swallowed hard and taken a hit,” he said. “But now they won’t do that anymore.”

He said the impasse would boost alternative structures like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal encompassing 12 countries including Japan, Britain, Canada, Mexico and Australia – but not the U.S.

“Now what you’re going to see is a lot more energy and momentum into things like the CPTPP,” Rockwell said.

— Additional reporting by Emma Farge in Geneva

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“I want John Deere and Case and all of – they’re great companies, Caterpillar… I want these companies to give it to you in the form of lower tractor and equipment costs,” Trump told hundreds of farmers and ranchers gathered under drizzle at an event on the South Lawn of the White House.

Deere & Co shares dropped two per cent after the statement. Case IH manufacturer CNH Industrial fell one per cent while Caterpillar Inc was down nearly 1.2 per cent in late-session trading.

The three companies could not immediately be reached for comment.

Trump seeks support from struggling farmers

Trump called for lower prices in an aside during a speech that otherwise focused on shoring up support among the Republican president’s loyal constituency of rural voters, who have backed Trump in all three of the last presidential races.

For the fourth straight year, U.S. crop producers are facing tight margins, high production costs and low commodity prices – and are struggling financially – despite near-record government payments.

The Trump administration is distributing $12 billion (C$16.7 billion) in aid to U.S. farmers — a move that farm trade groups and agricultural economists have said is helpful in the short-term but will not fully compensate farmers for financial losses that have topped $30 billion in recent years.

On Friday, Trump said he would seek even more such aid for farmers from Congress. More than 50 farm-interest groups, such as the American Farm Bureau Federation, are urging Congress to approve additional aid in a military funding package.

Trump pledges new loan guarantees

The event happened as the administration finalized new biofuel blending mandates for U.S. oil refiners, requiring them to mix more of the fuels made from corn and other agricultural products into the nation’s gasoline and diesel than initially proposed, in an apparent win for farmers.

Trump also said the U.S. Small Business Administration would open up new loan guarantees for farmers and food suppliers.

Farmers are entering the critical spring planting season under a cloud of uncertainty as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran disrupts global trade, causing fertilizer and diesel costs to spike.

The long-term U.S. trade relationship with China also remains unclear amid the ongoing trade war launched by Trump’s administration with the country, the world’s top soy importer.

Rural voters constitute a fifth of the U.S. electorate, and they favored Trump by a two-to-one margin over Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.

— Additional reporting by Bhargav Acharya

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The Environmental Protection Agency set total 2026 biofuel obligations at 26.81 billion RINs and the 2027 obligation at 27.02 billion RINs.

WHY IT MATTERS: While U.S. biofuel mandates set higher demand for oilseeds, the rules could disincentivize American buyers from choosing Canadian canola in the future.

The total mandates include 70 per cent of the blending obligations that were waived under the Small Refinery Exemptions program during the 2023-2025 compliance years, the EPA said.

The EPA in June 2025 had proposed total biofuel blending volumes at 24.02 billion RINs in 2026 and 24.46 billion RINs in 2027.

EPA added on Friday that, starting in 2028, foreign fuels and feedstocks will receive only half of the RINs of American-made products.

The rule ends a period of uncertainty for both the agriculture and refining industry, whose fortunes can be significantly impacted by the country’s biofuels policies.

Farmers and biofuel producers typically want high quotas to spur demand for their products, while refiners view the blending obligations as a costly burden.

On Friday, Canola Council of Canada president Chris Davison said he was pleased with what he’s seen of the EPA’s decision, particularly the increased blending mandate.

“We’re very pleased to see those updates, and Canadian canola can make a meaningful contribution there,” Davison said.

“Canola is a modest but important feedstock in U.S. biomass-based diesel production,” said Davis.

The new RVOs should create an “appreciable opportunity” for Canada’s canola crushers who have greatly increased production capacity in recent years.

Davison said he was not sure what ‘foreign feedstocks’ would mean as at one point the agency was considering a proposal to create a ring fence covering all of North America.

— Reporting by Richard Valdmanis and Daphne Psaledakis

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Soybean seedings, meanwhile, are expected to jump as some growers shift acres away from corn and wheat, which require more costly fertilizer, they said.

Farmers are entering the critical spring planting season under a cloud of uncertainty as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran disrupts global trade, causing fertilizer and diesel costs to spike. The long-term U.S. trade relationship with China also remains unclear amid the ongoing trade war launched by President Donald Trump’s administration with the top soy importer.

U.S. net farm income

Meanwhile, U.S. net farm income is forecast to turn lower this year despite near-record government payments, marking the fourth straight year of crop producers facing tight margins, high production costs and low commodity prices.

The Trump administration is in the process of distributing $12 billion (C$16.6 billion) in aid to U.S. farmers. As the repercussions of the war rattle the broader economy, farm groups have urged Congress to approve additional aid.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is due to release its annual prospective plantings report on Tuesday, its first survey-based crop acreage estimate of the year. Analysts cautioned that the estimates, gleaned from farmer surveys conducted in the first half of March, could not fully account for disruptions and price impacts caused by the war, which began when the United States and Israel launched airstrikes across Iran on February 28.

“This particular planting intentions report, right out of the gates, is going to be viewed somewhat skeptically by the trade just because of the timing of the survey with the start of the war and how things have changed in terms of costs,” said Terry Linn, analyst with Linn & Associates in Chicago.

Analysts polled by Reuters, on average, projected corn plantings to drop to 94.371 million acres, down from 98.788 million acres in 2025, which was the most since 1936. Soybean seedings were seen at 85.549 million acres, up from 81.215 million a year ago.

Wheat plantings expected to fall

Plantings of spring wheat, grown in the northern Plains, are forecast to drop to 9.843 million acres, down from 9.990 million last year and the lowest since 1970. Prices for the high-protein grain have slumped since a record Canadian harvest last year.

Farmers in the U.S. Midwest farm belt normally rotate their fields with corn one year and soybeans the next, but profit projections and input costs can prompt farmers to deviate from their crop rotations in some fields.

“The fertilizer cost and fertilizer availability are the main drivers right now,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist with Allendale. “But I would point out that we have questions about whether the USDA’s report will show the true story.”

Prices for urea fertilizer are up about 40 per cent since the start of the war while costs for anhydrous ammonia are up nearly 20 per cent, according to a report this week from economists at the University of Illinois.

“Given that nitrogen fertilizers are not used intensively on soybeans, higher nitrogen prices could also lead to a shift towards more soybean acres and fewer corn acres,” they said.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins this month estimated that about 75 per cent of farmers already had their fertilizer needs booked.

Hunt for alternatives

The hunt is on for alternatives that would insulate farmers from price volatility tied to natural gas in fertilizer markets, and be less carbon-intensive.

While natural gas powers the process of synthesizing most widely used ammonia fertilizers, there are efforts to power more ammonia production with renewable energy.

In Minnesota for example, a coalition of agriculture and conservation organizations launched the Minnesota Made Ammonia project on March 5 to build local ammonia production facilities in Minnesota that use renewable energy, according to a statement from the group.

Outside of the heart of the Midwest corn and soybean belt, farmers have more planting options, including hard red spring wheat, durum wheat, canola and cotton, analysts said.

Demand for biofuels swells

In North Dakota, the top spring wheat state and a key supplier of soybeans that are shipped to China via Pacific Northwest ports, rising fertilizer costs and trade uncertainty are likely to prompt some farmers to choose corn or canola over soybeans and wheat, analysts said.

The price of urea fertilizer has jumped at least $200 per ton since the start of the war, according to Jim Peterson, executive director of the North Dakota Wheat Commission.

“On a 50 bushel (per acre) wheat yield, you need another 40 or 50 cents a bushel to just cover that cost,” Peterson said.

Canola, grown in the northern Plains and in Canada, is also a viable option despite high fertilizer costs due to strong demand for vegetable oil for biofuel production. Demand for biofuels has swelled amid rising prices for petroleum-based fuels.

In the Delta, low cotton prices and costly inputs are likely to lead to the lowest cotton plantings in a decade as farmers may choose more profitable soybeans instead.

“If we go through the rest of March and into April with soybeans looking this much stronger than cotton, then, yes, we’ll see more acres move from cotton to soybeans,” said Barry Bean, president of Bean & Bean Cotton Company.

1 acre = 0.405 hectares

— Additional reporting by Ed White in Winnipeg, Renee Hickman in Chicago and Anmol Choubey in Bangalore

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The government officials, from Canada, Argentina and Brazil, told Reuters they expect the deal to be concluded in 2026, with one noting that talks were progressing well and could be wrapped up before September.

The Argentine government official said that the agreement is expected to be signed in September or October, marking roughly a year since negotiations formally restarted.

Another diplomat, based in Brazil, also told Reuters negotiations are going at a record speed and extremely well, confirming the countries will probably reach a deal this year.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to visit Brazil in the next quarter, said this source. Although neither government plans to announce an agreement during the visit, it may serve as a push to finalize one as soon as possible, the source said.

Mercosur’s office in Montevideo and the Canadian trade ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Talks renewed after stall

The renewed momentum follows months of technical exchanges after Canada and Mercosur agreed last year to relaunch the talks that had been stalled since 2021. Mercosur is composed of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, with Bolivia expected to become a full member in 2028.

Canada has intensified efforts to diversify trade amid uncertainty linked to tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump and South America, especially Brazil, said this source, is a trade partner Canada cannot do without. For Mercosur, a major exporter of beef, soy and minerals, an agreement with Canada would expand access to developed markets and help attract investment in key industries such as mining.

Earlier in March, trade officials from Ontario visited Argentina and Uruguay as part of efforts to lay the groundwork for a future deal and showcase support for increased bilateral trade. Ontario’s Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade, Victor Fedeli, met with technology and mining industry representatives as part of the trip, building on a visit to Brazil late last year.

‘Trump acceleration’ effect

Fedeli said Ontario was stepping up outreach to South America partly due to what he called the “Trump acceleration” effect, noting that roughly 80 per cent of the province’s trade is with the United States.

“We’re building on that momentum,” Fedeli said in an interview with Reuters in Montevideo. “The Canadian government is serious about diversifying away from the U.S., working to unlock new opportunities for trade, partnership, and investment,” he added.

The talks with Canada come after Mercosur signed a trade agreement with the European Union in January, following 25 years of negotiations. Earlier this month the European Commission said key trade elements of the accord, which has proven contentious in Europe, will apply on a provisional basis from May 1.

— Additional reporting by Lucila Sigal in Buenos Aires

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