JBS workers strike in Colorado

Beef packers have scaled back production in recent weeks and traders are monitoring developments at a large JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley, Colo., where workers have gone on strike.

The dispute reduces U.S. beef production capacity at a time when consumers face record prices for hamburgers and steaks and Trump has struggled to make good on a pledge to cool costs.

The workers have launched a two-week strike and will remain on the picket lines until JBS negotiates fairly with workers, according to the union.

Beef prices soared after a years-long drought burned up grazing lands and drove ranchers to slash their herds to the lowest level in 75 years.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange April live cattle settled 2.35 cents higher at 233.25 cents per pound (USD). April feeders finished up 12.30 cents at 355.45 cents per pound.

Beef packer margins rose to US$57.10 per head on Monday, up from gains of $45.20 on Friday, and losses of $117.95 a week ago, according to livestock marketing advisory service HedgersEdge.

CME lean hog futures ended up 0.05 cents at 93.50 cents per pound.

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Market participants were adjusting positions at the end of the month and after a volatile trading week that saw record-high precious metal prices in addition to the dollar slide. But on Friday, global stocks declined and rallies in precious metals cooled as the dollar rose.

Grains and oilseed prices had climbed to multi-week highs this week on the back of a weaker dollar, but ample global supply has kept gains in check.

“It’s just a risk-off environment,” said Karl Setzer, co-founder of Consus Ag Consulting.

“We’ve really pounded the dollar this month,” said Setzer, but he said most of the trade was based on “money flow, positioning and profit-taking.”

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat Wv1 fell 3-1/2 cents to end at $5.38 a bushel after hitting a new nine-week peak of $5.44-3/4.

CBOT soybeans Sv1 fell 8 cents to $10.64-1/4 a bushel, while corn Cv1 shed 2-1/2 cents to $4.28-1/4 a bushel.

The dollar index =USD continued its recovery on Friday, supported by reports that U.S. President Donald Trump could name on Friday former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the new head of the central bank.

Investors view Warsh as more hawkish on interest rates than other candidates for the post. Market jitters over Trump’s policymaking, including his criticism of the Fed, had fuelled the dollar’s recent slide.

Chicago wheat has also drawn support this week from short-covering by investment funds and bouts of severe cold in wheat belts in the United States and the Black Sea region.

After extreme cold in the U.S. Plains in the past week, traders were monitoring forecasts of deep frosts in Ukraine next week that could cause crop damage.

In Argentina, recent rains improved soil moisture in parts of the country but corn and soy crops still need more rainfall to avoid yield losses, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday.

The prospect of record soybean production in Brazil, where harvesting is in its early stages, was nonetheless tempering concern about Argentina.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang in Beijing and Gus Trompiz in Paris.

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Corn traded near flat and soybeans ticked down slightly on expectations of a large South American harvest.

The dollar index rebounded after tumbling to a four-year low on Tuesday, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s reference to its value as “great” fuelling expectations of further weakness.

But the dollar’s recent plunge was still weighing on investor positioning, traders said.

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, said the slide prompted a flow of money into hard assets.

A sharp rise in crude oil, driven by concerns about possible U.S. military strikes against Iran, also underpinned grains and oilseeds, which are partly used for biofuel. O/R

The most-active wheat contract Wv1 on the Chicago Board of Trade closed up 5-1/2 cents at $5.41-1/2 per bushel.

CBOT corn Cv1 settled up 3/4 cent at $4.30-3/4 per bushel. CBOT soybeans Sv1 ended down 2-3/4 cents at $10.72-3/4 a bushel.

In top soybean producer Brazil, grain cooperative Coamo said it expects its 2026 harvest to be the largest ever.

The prospect of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest was tempering concern about parched conditions affecting some soy and corn crops in Argentina.

In wheat, adverse weather conditions in growing regions of the Black Sea and the U.S. created some support, although it could be hard to sustain a rally based on adverse weather in January, Suderman said.

Agricultural consultancy Sovecon on Tuesday raised its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast, underscoring a hefty surplus in the world’s biggest wheat-exporting nation.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said net U.S. wheat export sales in the week ended January 22 totaled 558,201 metric tons for shipments in the 2025/26 marketing year. The sales were near the high end of a range of trade estimates.

-Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz, Daphne Zhang, Peter Hobson and Cynthia Osterman

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Grain markets were also monitoring the impact of a winter storm on U.S. wheat fields and agricultural supply chains, while assessing comments by U.S. President Donald Trump about steps to approve use of a higher blend of corn-based ethanol fuel.

The most active wheat contract Wv1 on the Chicago Board of Trade settled up 12-3/4 cents at $5.36 a bushel, having reached its highest point since December 5.

CBOT soybeans Sv1 gained 7-3/4 cents to $10.75 a bushel after touching their highest point since December 12. CBOT corn Cv1 was up 3-1/2 cents at $4.30 a bushel.

“Money continues to flow into the broader commodity sector amid the weaker dollar this morning, pushing crude oil prices to fresh four-month highs, while the grain and oilseed markets were mostly higher as well,” Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, said in a client note.

The dollar index steadied on Wednesday but held near a four-year low hit on Tuesday in reaction to Trump’s reference to the dollar’s value as “great”, which raised expectations of further dollar weakness.

Trump did not announce new biofuels guidelines in a speech in Iowa on Tuesday, as had been hoped by some market players, according to Suderman. However, the president said, “They are very close to getting it done.”

Suderman said: “There’s a quiet optimism in the industry that the final guidelines will be net positive for demand for feedstock to produce biomass diesel, but nobody knows for sure, so the industry continues to hold back production for now.”

In South America, intense hot and dry weather has hit Argentina, threatening crop production in the world’s leading exporter of soy meal and soy oil and the third-largest supplier of corn.

However, Brazil is in the early stages of harvesting what is forecast to be a record soybean crop. Traders expect China to turn mainly to Brazil for imports in the coming months after a recent wave of U.S. soybean purchases.

In Russia, the world’s biggest wheat supplier, concerns over damage to wheat crops and disruption to exports from severe winter weather were subsiding.

Consultancy Sovecon raised its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast by 1.1 million metric tons on Tuesday to 45.7 million tons.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang in Beijing, Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra

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Meanwhile, talks between U.S. and Chinese officials boosted export sentiment and shifted attention from a diplomatic dispute over Greenland, analysts said.

Wheat and corn also rebounded from drops a day earlier, with mixed weather conditions in major global production zones lending additional support.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Sv1 settled up 11-1/2 cents at $10.64-1/2 a bushel.

Soybeans had fallen on Tuesday as investor worries about U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats against Europe over his plan to take control of Greenland fueled risk-off sentiment across financial markets.

An earlier slide in the dollar index amid the market jitters over Greenland had helped boost the export competitiveness of U.S. crops, but the dollar regained ground as the market digested Trump’s speech at Davos.

Meanwhile, Karl Setzer, cofounder of Consus Ag Consulting, said “soybeans are finding support from a slow start to the Brazil harvest.”

Northern Brazilian showers are interrupting fieldwork at times, but serious slowdowns are not expected in the next weeks, according to forecaster Commodity Weather Group.

Comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revived hopes for ongoing demand for U.S. soybeans from China following a bilateral trade truce in late October.

Bessent said he had met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, in what he called “positive” talks, adding that his Chinese counterpart had confirmed the completion of an initial U.S. soybean purchase commitment, which Washington has put at 12 million tons.

While ample global supply continued to cap grain prices, dry weather affecting corn and soybean crops in part of Argentina and cold weather in wheat production belts in the Black Sea region were also underpinning prices.

Setzer said slightly wetter weather in the wheat-producing U.S. Plains added some pressure, however.

CBOT wheat Wv1 was down 2-1/2 cents at $5.07-3/4 a bushel, while corn Cv1 fell 2 cents to $4.21-3/4 a bushel.

Weekly U.S. export inspection volumes reported on Tuesday, which were above market expectations for corn and near the high end of estimates for wheat and soybeans, also boosted demand sentiment. USDA/EST

Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris, Daphne Zhang in Beijing and Peter Hobson in Canberra.

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A drop in the dollar and signs of brisk international demand, however, lent some support to Chicago prices as trading resumed after a three-day U.S. holiday weekend.

The most-active soybean contract Sv1 on the Chicago Board of Trade settled down 4-3/4 cents at $10.53 a bushel.

CBOT wheat Wv1 fell 7-3/4 cents to end at $5.10-1/4 a bushel, and CBOT corn Cv1 dipped 1 cent to finish at $4.23-3/4 a bushel.

Shares slid along with the dollar as investors fretted over a standoff between U.S. President Donald Trump and European allies that Trump has threatened with tariffs if they oppose his aim to take control of Greenland.

Weakness in outside markets spilled into grains, but support came from a falling dollar, which tends to make U.S. exports cheaper and more competitive globally.

“The world economy kind of rejects Trump’s notion of wanting to purchase Greenland and now his proposed incremental or escalating tariffs for those countries who oppose that,” said Mark Soderberg, senior agricultural market analyst at ADM Investor Services.

Expectations for a record Brazilian soybean harvest and ample global cereal supplies also curbed prices, tempering reaction to Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and demand from wheat importers.

China has bought about 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans since a bilateral trade truce in late October, fulfilling a commitment cited by U.S. officials, according to traders.

But traders expect Chinese importers to revert to buying mainly South American soybeans as Brazil’s harvest gets going.

“That demand will now all shift to South American origin moving forward,” said Soderberg.

Strong domestic demand for U.S. soybeans, as processors respond to expanding biofuel production requiring soyoil, helped underpin U.S. prices.

The wheat market was assessing purchases this week by Saudi Arabia and Algeria. While absorbing a chunk of global supply, prices suggested stiff competition between export zones.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang in Bejing, Peter Hobson in Canberra and Gus Trompiz in Paris

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Wheat and corn futures also edged down, but corn received some support from the brisk pace of U.S. exports.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade Sv1 finished 1-3/4 cents lower at $10.45-3/4 a bushel, having hit its lowest point since October 23.

Wheat Wv1 settled 1/2 cent lower at $5.06-1/2 per bushel, while corn Cv1 ended 2-3/4 cents lower at $4.37-1/2 per bushel.

Trading volume was down on Friday as many traders took an extra day off after the New Year holiday on Thursday, said Jim McCormick, co-founder of AgMarket.net, but fund liquidation caused some pressure.

Meanwhile, McCormick said China was buying Brazilian beans.

“We are not competitively priced with Brazil, so the market is weakening on trying to get price-competitive with the Brazilians,” he said.

He added that the weather in South America “probably couldn’t get much better for Brazil” while Argentina’s slightly drier conditions are expected to be relieved by rain in the near future.

Brisk U.S. export sales kept a floor under corn futures, said McCormick, as did the pace of the ethanol grind.

Earlier in the week, the USDA reported net export sales of U.S. 2025-26 corn in the week ended December 18 at 2.2 million metric tons, topping a range of trade expectations for 1 million to 2 million tons.

Regarding next month’s U.S. Department of Agriculture supply and demand report, “I think the trade is leaning toward that corn crop getting a little bit smaller,” said McCormick, which would provide additional support.

Wheat was pressured by large global supplies this week, as traders watched developments in the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

Any resolution to the nearly four-year-old conflict would likely weigh on wheat prices, as reduced shipping risks could lower export costs and improve access to Ukrainian ports.

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CME February live cattle LCG26 settled 1.125 cents higher at 231.600 cents per pound, and March feeder cattle FCH26 settled 0.750 cent higher at 345.325 cents per pound.

“There’s a lot of expectation that the cash fed cattle market is going to rally in the beginning of the year, which it normally does seasonally,” said Cassie Fish, analyst and author of the Beef newsletter.

She added that there had been plenty of fund buying recently, as well as some “modest strength” in the cash cattle market, allowing futures to shrug off bearish factors such as consumers facing record high beef prices.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported on Wednesday afternoon that boxed beef values fell $0.75 to $347.45 per hundredweight for choice cuts and $0.78 to $342.38 per cwt for select cuts.

Beef packers lost $271.40 per head of cattle on Wednesday, according to livestock marketing advisory firm HedgersEdge.com, compared to $254.85 on Tuesday and $199.00 a week ago.

CME benchmark February lean hog futures LHG26 fell 0.350 cent to 85.100 cents per pound after ticking up on Tuesday.

The USDA on Wednesday afternoon reported pork carcasses fell $0.39 to $93.84 per cwt and bellies rose $3.52 to $122.50 per cwt.

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Wheat and corn futures had annual declines, pressured by abundant supplies.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was up 3.66 per cent in 2025. Wheat was down 8.07 per cent for the year, while corn was down 3.98 per cent.

For the day, most-active CBOT soybeans Sv1 settled down 14-3/4 cents at $10.47-1/2 a bushel. Corn Cv1 ended down 1/4 cent at $4.40-1/4 a bushel.

Most-active wheat Wv1 finished 3-3/4 cents lower at $5.07 a bushel.

Despite the trade truce with China, “the demand side of the equation continues to be a stumbling block for soybeans, and we saw that with the weekly export sales once again today,” said Mike Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity Analytics.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday reported net export sales of U.S. 2025/26 soybeans in the week ended December 18 at 987,100 metric tons, below a range of trade expectations for 1.4 million to 2.4 million tons.

“Corn remains stellar in terms of export demand,” Zuzolo said.

The USDA reported net export sales of U.S. 2025/26 corn in the week ended December 18 at 2.2 million metric tons, topping a range of trade expectations for 1 million to 2 million tons.

Wheat futures were pressured by global oversupply, said Zuzolo, shrugging off any support from escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war and lack of progress on peace talks.

Ukrainian drones on Wednesday damaged Russian energy infrastructure and disrupted Kazakhstan’s oil exports. Ukraine is among the world’s largest exporters of wheat and corn.

Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest is forecast to hit a record 27.8 million tons, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Tuesday. The current record stands at 22.4 million tons, reached four years ago.

CBOT grain markets will be closed on Thursday for the New Year’s holiday.

-Additional reporting by Ella Cao, Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing and Sybille de La Hamaide in Paris.

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Many funds still have net long positions, said Doug Houghton, analyst at Brock Associates, “If they’re taking profits, that’s going to weigh on things,” he said.

In lean hogs, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s quarterly hogs and pigs report last week showed larger numbers than expected, also weighing on futures, said Houghton.

The USDA on Monday afternoon reported pork bellies fell $4.50 to $124.08 per hundredweight.

The CME benchmark February lean hog futures LHG26 fell 0.050 cent to 84.475 cents per pound.

The CME February live cattle LCG26 settled 0.675 cents lower at 228.975 cents per pound. March feeder cattle FCH26 settled 1.250 cents higher at 341.675 cents per pound.

In cattle, Houghton noted, “there’s still a lot of trepidation in the market about when the USDA might re-open cattle imports from Mexico, but it’s hard to say from day to day that that’s really a factor.”

The U.S. has been closed to those imports because of the spread of the New World screwworm parasite in Mexico, and re-opening the border would increase supplies of the animal, weighing on futures.

In boxed beef, choice cuts fell $1.88 to $349.33 per cwt, according to USDA data as of Monday afternoon. Select cuts rose $1.82 to $345.62 per cwt.

Beef packers lost $235.00 per head of cattle on Monday, according to livestock marketing advisory firm HedgersEdge.com, compared to $204.95 on Friday and $161.90 a week ago.

“Packer margins are sharply negative and it’s certainly a negative market factor,” said Houghton.

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