The higher planting is expected to help the world’s second-largest wheat producer boost output, ease local prices, and potentially allow New Delhi to permit limited exports of wheat flour. Increased rapeseed production could also help the world’s biggest vegetable oil importer reduce its overseas purchases.

Abundant monsoon rainfall this year improved soil moisture and boosted reservoir levels, which in turn is enabling farmers to expand the area under winter crops, said Harish Galipelli, director of ILA Commodities Pvt Ltd.

Wheat plantings up 10.8 per cent

Indian farmers have so far planted winter-sown crops on 47.9 million hectares (118.3 million acres) since sowing began on October 1, up 6.1 per cent from a year ago, data from the farm ministry showed.

Wheat was planted on 24.14 million hectares (59.6 million acres), up 10.8 per cent from a year earlier, while paddy area rose 11.4 per cent to 1 million hectares, the data showed.

India’s wheat is mainly produced in the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and the central state of Madhya Pradesh.

India’s key wheat-growing north-western region was inundated with 161 per cent more rainfall than average in October, contributing to the country’s overall 49 per cent surplus in the month.

Rapeseed planting up 4.5 per cent

Rapeseed plantings reached 8 million hectares, up 4.5 per cent from last year, and chickpea sowing increased 3.5 per cent to 7.8 million hectares (19.3 million acres).

Rapeseed is the main winter-sown oilseed in India, which fulfils nearly two-thirds of its demand through overseas purchases of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, primarily from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

“If weather stays supportive, especially from mid-January to mid-March, crop yields could improve this year,” said Ashwini Bansod, vice president for commodities research at Phillip Capital India, a Mumbai-based brokerage.

The La Niña weather pattern, historically linked to colder-than-normal winters across northern India, is likely to persist from December through February, according to India Meteorological Department.

India banned wheat exports in 2022, extending the prohibition as extreme heat shrivelled crops again in 2023.

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The losses to crops such as cotton and soybean are expected to slow agricultural growth, boost farmers’ debt and cap rural consumption, which had been set to rise after New Delhi slashed taxes on hundreds of consumer items.

“We had hoped to harvest 10 to 12 quintals of soybean per acre, but now we’ll be lucky to get 2 to 3 quintals — and even that will require significant additional expenses,” said farmer Kishore Hangargekar. A quintal is a unit equivalent to 100 kg (220 lb).

He was speaking after two days of unrelenting rain flooded his fields and submerged his crops in the district of Dharashiv in the western state of Maharashtra.

Related: India and Canada agree on new roadmap for relations.

Until then, the soybean crop had been thriving, and farmers were readying for harvest.

The reduction in yields from excessive rainfall is likely to halve agricultural growth to three per cent to 3.5 per cent in the December quarter, down from 6.6 per cent a year earlier, said Garima Kapoor, economist at Mumbai-based Elara Securities.

Summer-sown crops such as soybean, cotton, rice, pulses and vegetables mature from September, a month that saw rains of 15 per cent above average this year, with some regions getting as much as 115 per cent more than normal.

While agriculture contributes just 18 per cent to India’s economy of nearly US$4 trillion, almost half its population of 1.4 billion relies on farming to earn a living.

No respite from rain

Now farmers are scrambling to harvest summer crops ahead of winter sowing set to begin next month, but more untimely rain forecast this week could delay planting and damage late-maturing summer crops.

The rain-damaged crops are earning prices well below the government’s minimum support price, as quality has deteriorated.

“Traders are buying the damaged crops for throwaway prices, and we have no choice but to sell,” said farmer Sachin Nanaware, who sold his soybean at a rate of 3,200 rupees ($50.62) for 100 kg, below the government-fixed rate of 5,328 rupees.

Nanaware said he had hoped to buy a motorcycle and a television, but is now worried about repaying his bank loan.

The excessive rain has boosted soil moisture for winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed and chickpea, but many farmers say they lack funds for seeds and fertilisers.

“We need money to buy seeds and fertilisers and to prepare the land,” said farmer Chaya Jawale as she collected cotton bolls brought down from plants prematurely by the rain.

“So, we have no choice but to mortgage our gold jewellery.”

Damage to soybean and cotton crops is expected to boost India’s vegetable oil imports in the marketing year from November by 1.5 million tons to a record 18 million, says industry analyst Thomas Mielke of Oil World.

— Additional reporting by Ira Dugal

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A shipment of 6,000 tons of canola oil from the United Arab Emirates is expected to arrive at Kandla port in Gujarat this month, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at GGN Research, an edible oil trader.

India mainly buys palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

In July, rapeseed oil prices in the spot market surged to 167,000 rupees (C$2,659) per ton — the highest since February 2022 and almost 34 per cent above year-ago levels.

“The price rally is creating an opening for imports, and we might see more coming in since the new local crop won’t hit the market until March next year,” said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

India’s soyoil imports have also been rising, with some buyers substituting costlier rapeseed oil with the cheaper alternative, he said.

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Why it matters: China, a key importer of Canadian canola, has placed a 100 per cent tariff on canola oil and meal.

India’s rapeseed meal exports will help China, the world’s top consumer, replace canola imports from Canada while easing pressure on local rapeseed prices in India where there are large stockpiles of the widely used animal feed.

“Indian rapeseed meal is very competitive compared to other origins. That’s why China has been increasing purchases since March,” B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, told Reuters.

China becoming biggest buyer ‘from nowhere’

India’s rapeseed meal exports to China are likely to jump to a record 500,000 metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year which started in April, up from the last year’s 60,759 tons, Mehta said.

In the first two months of 2025/26, India exported 113,836 tons of rapeseed meal to China, which imposed a 100 per cent retaliatory tariff on canola meal and oil imports from Canada starting on March 20.

In 2024, China imported 2.02 million metric tons of canola meal from Canada, 504,000 tons from the United Arab Emirates, and 135,000 tons from Russia, according to customs data. It bought 13,100 tons from India.

India, the world’s third-largest rapeseed producer, had struggled to export significant amounts of rapeseed meal to China because of higher prices in the past.

But now India is offering rapeseed meal at around $202 per ton (C$277) on a free-on-board (FOB) basis compared to around $300 for supplies from the European Union, traders said.

“China has emerged as the biggest buyer of Indian rapeseed meal from nowhere. It is buying more than 50,000 tons every month,” said one of the leading exporters.

Higher crushing increasing India oil supply

South Korea, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam traditionally account for the bulk of India’s rapeseed meal exports.

India badly needs edible oils to fulfill local demand amid lower imports in the past few months, said the exporter.

“Higher rapeseed crushing because of Chinese demand for meal is improving rapeseed oil supplies,” he said.

India, the world’s biggest importer of vegetable oils, buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

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Why it matters: China’s punitive tariffs threaten an enormous market for Canadian canola oil and meal

India’s rapeseed meal exports will help China, the world’s top consumer, replace imports from Canada while easing pressure on local rapeseed prices in India, which is sitting on large stockpiles of the widely used animal feed.

“Chinese buyers started showing interest in Indian rapeseed meal in the last few weeks due to tariffs on Canadian supplies,” said an official with a leading rapeseed meal exporter.

China imposed a 100 per cent retaliatory tariff on canola meal and oil imports from Canada starting on March 20.

China bought Indian rapeseed meal for prompt shipments at $220 to $235 per metric ton (C$312 to $333), on a cost and freight basis, said the sources, who declined to be named because they were not authorised to speak to media.

India, the world’s third-largest rapeseed producer, has struggled to export significant amounts of rapeseed meal to China because of higher prices.

In 2024, China imported 2.02 million metric tons of canola meal from Canada, 504,000 tons from the United Arab Emirates, and 135,000 tons from Russia, according to customs data. It bought only 13,100 tons from India.

India exported more than 2 million tons of rapeseed meal, but China accounted for less than one per cent.

“Chinese demand is huge. If its current buying momentum continues in the next few months, it could emerge as one of the biggest buyers of Indian rapeseed meal,” said one of the sources.

South Korea, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam traditionally account for the bulk of India’s rapeseed meal exports.

“India can raise shipments from around 2 million tons to 2.5 million tons this year, given the surplus in India and shortage in the world market,” said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA).

India’s rapeseed meal stocks are expected to rise as new season supplies begin to pick up.

Weak local demand has pushed Indian rapeseed meal prices to around $200 per ton on a free-on-board (FOB) basis, down from $248 in February and $278 a year ago, according to SEA data.

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Maximum and minimum temperatures in most parts of the country will be above-average in the month, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department, told a virtual news conference.

The country is likely to receive below-average rainfall in February and could see fewer cold days than normal in the month, he said.

“Below normal rainfall, along with higher temperatures over the plains of northwest India, would have a significant adverse impact on standing crops like wheat at flowering and grain filling stages. Crops like mustard and chickpea may also experience early maturity,” Mohapatra said.

India’s Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh states in the north, along with Madhya Pradesh in central India, form the country’s top wheat-growing regions.

Winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions during their growth and maturity stages for optimal yields.

Reuters reported on Thursday that temperatures in February were likely to remain above average, especially in the northern states where wheat and rapeseed are grown.

In January, minimum and maximum temperatures were above average as the country received lower than normal rainfall, Mohapatra said.

Hot and unseasonably warm weather leads to lower wheat production and sharp drawdowns in state reserves. As a result, wheat prices hit a record 33,250 rupees (C$555.94) per metric ton earlier this month.

Any drop in the rapeseed crop could force India, the world’s biggest vegetable oil importer, to step up its cooking oil imports, dealers said.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

— Additional reporting by Shilpa Jamkhandikar

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Maharashtra, which includes the city of Mumbai, is a major grower of sugarcane, soybean, cotton and onions, but opinion polls – which have a patchy record in India – suggest Modi’s alliance may struggle to retain the local legislature as farmers say they have yet to benefit from the recent measures.

An opinion poll by Lok Poll, covering more than 86,000 people in Maharashtra, showed last week that a coalition of opposition parties including Congress could wrest back the state with up to 162 of the 288 seats. It said low prices for crops such as soybean and cotton were a factor.

Other surveys have also said the BJP alliance could lose. Votes will be counted on Nov. 23.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its parliamentary majority in national elections held between April and June partly due to farmers’ anger with the export curbs, which they felt prioritised Indian consumers above growers by keeping domestic prices low.

In that national election, opposition parties won two thirds of the parliamentary seats in Maharashtra.

“We faced a setback during the parliamentary elections because of the restrictions on onion exports,” senior BJP leader and Maharashtra deputy chief minister, Devendra Fadnavis, told an election rally on Sunday.

“We have now lifted those curbs and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government will not impose export bans abruptly.”

India has removed export restrictions on rice and onions, and raised the tariffs on imported edible oil in a bid to help local growers of mustard and soybean get better prices at home.

Too late

But farmers say the steps have come too late, as they had already harvested and sold their produce like onions to traders, who are now benefiting from a surge in domestic prices.

Retail inflation soared to its highest level in 14 months in October, partly due to high prices of edible oils, onions and tomatoes.

“When we were selling onions in March and April, the government didn’t allow exports,” said farmer Mahesh Gore in Maharashtra’s Nashik district.

“We were forced to sell onions at 10 rupees per kg (C$0.17). If they had allowed exports then, we could have got double the price. Now prices are at 50 rupees (C$0.83), but only traders are benefiting.”

In recent years, India restricted onion exports whenever wholesale prices rose above 20 rupees (C$0.33).

Other farmers say they are not getting a good price for crops like soybeans because of a global glut now.

Mahesh Khade said he was barely getting 3,900 rupees per 100 kg (C$64.58) now for soybeans compared with 4,600 rupees a decade ago. Prices of diesel, fertilisers, and other inputs have more than doubled in the same period.

“They have ignored farmers’ interests,” Khade said, adding he would switch sides now and vote for the opposition.

The BJP did not respond to requests for comment.

— Additional reporting by Swati Bhat in Mumbai and Shivam Patel in New Delhi

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Lentils and potash supplies from Canada have been steady, they said.

Ties between India and Canada deteriorated sharply after New Delhi and Ottawa ordered six diplomats to leave in tit-for-tat moves over Ottawa’s allegations that New Delhi was targeting Indian dissidents on Canadian soil.

The worsening relations raised concerns over the supplies of lentils and potash from Canada.

India is a leading importer of protein-rich lentils – a pulse variety used to make daal curry – a staple for millions of people.

India also imports potash for its huge agriculture sector, which employs about half of its 1.4 billion people and accounts for nearly 15 per cent of the $3 trillion economy.

“Indian traders have already placed orders for shipments scheduled for October and November, and these are expected to arrive as planned,” Bimal Kothari, chairman of India Pulses and Grains Association, said referring to lentil imports from Canada.

India imports red lentils from Canada, Australia, Russia and Myanmar. India also imports yellow peas, another pulse variety, from Canada.

“There has been no disruption in the trade of pulse between Canada and India,” Kothari said.

Consumption of lentils in India has risen to around 3 million metric tons, but output remains stagnant at about 1.3 million tons.

India is the world’s biggest producer of pulse varieties, with a production around 29 million metric tons, but it’s not enough to meet local demand, making New Delhi the biggest importer of pulse.

India has sufficient stocks of pulse and there are no supply disruptions, said a senior government official who didn’t wish to be named.

A senior fertiliser industry official said: “We are continuing to import potash as per contracts. There has been no change in policy, and we have not received any orders or instructions from the government to stop potash imports from Canada.”

To fertilise crops, India depends on imports for its entire annual consumption of 4 million to 5 million tonnes of potash. Other than Canada, India ships in potash from Belarus and Russia. Israel and Jordan are other important suppliers of potash to India.

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Thousands of farmers, mostly from the northern state of Punjab, launched a “Delhi Chalo” (Let’s go to Delhi) march last month demanding higher guaranteed prices for their produce but were stopped by police about 200 km (125 miles) north of the capital.

Protest leaders had planned to resume the protest on Wednesday, urging farmers across India to head for the capital by bus and train since their tractors had been blocked and tear gas and water cannon used to disperse them.

Farmers started moving towards Delhi but had been stopped by police in some states, said a statement from the Samyukta Kisan Morcha (Non-Political), or United Farmers’ Front, one of the two groups leading the protests.

Fifty farmers from one district in the northern state of Rajasthan were taken into custody on Tuesday night while others travelling to Delhi by train from the same state were detained at a police station on Wednesday, farmer leaders told reporters.

Rajasthan police denied detaining any farmers.

“We have not detained anybody in relation to the farmers’ agitation. There has been no mass movement from here in relation to the protest,” Utkal Ranjan Sahoo, Rajasthan’s police chief, told Reuters.

Farmers from other central and northern states are expected to arrive in Delhi on Thursday, said another protest leader, Ramandeep Singh Mann.

Farmer groups from southern and western India also said they were preparing to join the protests.

“The farmers remain determined to enter the city. Their resolve to fight for their rights has only strengthened in the face of obstacles,” Mann said.

The protests come weeks before national elections in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a rare third term.

A similar but larger protest two years ago, which saw farmers from more groups camped at Delhi’s borders for months, forced Modi to repeal some farm reform laws in his biggest political defeat.

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Thousands of farmers began the “Delhi Chalo” (Let’s go to Delhi) march last month but were stopped by security forces about 200 km (125 miles) north of the capital with teargas and water cannons.

The farmers, who are demanding higher prices for their crops, intensified their protest after several rounds of failed talks.

Farmers from various states, from Kerala in the south to Madhya Pradesh in central India, will arrive in New Delhi by trains and buses on Wednesday, Ramandeep Singh Mann, a farmer leader, told Reuters.

“Farmers from Punjab and Haryana will continue protesting at the existing protest sites with tractor trolleys. They will attempt to enter New Delhi with tractors only,” he said.

Thousands of farmers, mainly from the northern states of Punjab and Haryana, with around 3,000 tractors, are stuck at three borders that were blocked by police and paramilitary troops with barricades.

Clashes between farmers and security forces, including cane charges and tear gas canisters dropped by drones, have played on television screens for several days. The farmers say at least one protester has died in the clashes while dozens have been injured on both sides.

The protesting farmers will also block railway lines across the country for four hours during the afternoon of March 10, Mann said.

Farmers are determined to continue protesting until their demands for higher support prices, backed by law, are met, Mann said.

The government announces support prices for more than 20 crops each year, but state agencies buy only rice and wheat at the support level, which benefits only about 6 per cent of farmers who raise those two crops.

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