ADM and its agribusiness peers have seen earnings erode in recent quarters due to ample global crop supplies and commodities market upheaval that has thinned margins.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and shifting deadlines for duties have created further difficulties for global grains merchants like ADM, including halting Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and other farm goods that drove crop prices to multi-year lows.

The deferral of U.S. biofuel policy decisions, particularly regarding renewable fuel blending requirements under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, slowed use of feedstocks like the soybean oil produced at ADM processing plants.

ADM sees earnings rebound in 2026

Profit in ADM’s agricultural services and oilseed segment, its largest division, fell 21 per cent in the third quarter to $379 million (C$533.6 million). Crushing business earnings tumbled 93 per cent in the quarter.

ADM said it expected adjusted earnings of $3.25 to $3.50 per share (C$4.58 to $4.93) for 2025, down from its previous forecast of around $4.00 and below analysts’ estimate of $3.79 per share.

However, the company forecast an earnings rebound in 2026 on Trump administration proposals for increased biofuel use and a cooling of trade tensions with China.

Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping last week agreed to cut back certain tariffs and other trade hurdles, and China vowed to resume U.S. soybean purchases after shunning them for months.

“We expect biofuel policy clarity and trade policy evolution to provide demand signals for our industry,” CEO Juan Luciano said.

In a research note, UBS analysts said: “We continue to believe 2026 is setting up very well for ADM, with higher RVO (biofuel mandates) driving incremental demand for soybean oil.”

ADM reported an adjusted profit of 92 cents per share for the three months ended September 30, a six-year low for the quarter but topping analysts’ average estimate of 85 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG.

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The company warned that full-year 2025 earnings would drop to the lowest since 2020 after a weak first half and amid ongoing challenges in global trade.

U.S.-based ADM is bracing for an impact from President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on most imports, as well as any trade retaliation which often targets agricultural products.

ADM and agribusiness peers including Bunge and Cargill have seen profits erode in recent quarters due to ample global crop supplies and thinning margins. The U.S. president’s tariff threats and shifting deadlines for duties have fueled further chaos for global grains merchants like ADM.

U.S. biofuel policy uncertainty dented demand for green energy feedstocks like corn and soybean oil, although ADM said proposed increases for biofuel blending in the U.S. should be supportive from the fourth quarter and beyond.

ADM said it expected adjusted annual earnings at about US$4.00 share in 2025, compared with previous guidance of between $4.00 and $4.75 per share and the weakest in five years.

Profit from Ag Services & Oilseeds, the company’s largest segment, slumped seven per cent to $113 million (C$155.7 million) in the reported quarter driven by lower margins. The division houses the company’s global crop trading, transportation and storage, and oilseed processing operations.

Profit in its grain origination and crushing business, which sources grains from growers and processes them for food, animal feed and other uses, fell seven per cent to $33 million (C$45.5 million).

Chicago-based ADM reported adjusted net earnings of $452 million (C$623.1 million), or 93 cents per share, for the quarter ended June 30, down from $508 million, or $1.03 per share, a year ago. Analysts, on average, expected earnings per share of 83 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG.

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