Corn and wheat chopped up and down, though ample global supply continued to curb grain prices while traders turned their attention to a U.S. Department of Agriculture world crop report due Tuesday.

The most-active CBOT soybean Sv1 contract settled 3 cents higher at $11.15-1/4 a bushel.

Soybeans hit a two-month high on Wednesday after Trump posted that China was hiking purchases and “lifting the soybean count to 20 million tons” for the current season.

That implied that China could buy an additional 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in 2025/26 on top of about 12 million tons already booked since a trade truce was reached in late October.

“The market is assuming that China will buy something,” said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company, though he noted that many industry players are skeptical that Trump’s comments will prove accurate.

The remarks surprised traders, who expected China to rely heavily on Brazilian soybeans in the first half of 2026.

Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, is expected to produce 181.6 million metric tons in 2025/26, consultancy firm StoneX said on Monday, raising its outlook for the harvest that is in progress.

Meanwhile, CBOT corn Cv1 closed 4-3/4 cents lower to $4.30-1/4 per bushel. CBOT wheat Wv1 closed 5-1/2 cents lower at $5.29-3/4 per bushel.

Traders are monitoring dry weather in Argentina, though a massive U.S. harvest last year and favorable planting conditions for Brazil’s second corn crop tempered concerns.

In wheat, traders have been monitoring severe cold in the U.S.and in Russian production belts, but snow cover is expected to limit potential crop losses. Nearly all Russian crops were in normal condition as of Thursday, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing and Gus Trompiz in Paris

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CME April live cattle LCJ26 finished 51.65 cents to end at 237.25 cents per pound, while March feeder cattle FCH26 finished 3.35 cents higher at 367.325 cents per pound.

The planned release of sterile flies in Texas and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s emergency use authorization for ivermectin to treat screwworm infestations further solidified the belief among market players that the border will remain closed to cattle imports.

Cattle futures had stumbled on Thursday, breaking a three-day rally under pressure from a strike authorization vote at a JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley, Colorado, analysts said.

Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s biannual report stated the U.S. cattle herd had fallen to its smallest size since 1951. Despite being a week old, the report has continued to hang over Chicago cattle futures.

“We can’t get the inventory report out of our heads showing supplies remain tight,” said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company.

Hog futures ended little changed, though strong demand for pork and a tight hog herd provided a floor on prices.

CME April lean hogs LHJ26 settled 0.425 cent lower at 97.95 cents per pound.

The USDA priced choice boxed beef ticked $2.08 higher to $369.33 per hundredweight (cwt) as of Friday afternoon, and select boxed beef rose $4.16 to $364.53 per cwt.

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Corn and wheat ticked up with spillover support from soybeans, though a firmer dollar and easing weather concerns capped the cereal markets.

Soybeans rallied on Wednesday after Trump said China was “lifting the soybean count to 20 million tons for the current season,” suggesting China could buy 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in 2025/26 on top of approximately 12 million tons already booked since the trade truce in late October.

“Honestly, it’s the only story right now,” said Jason Ward, managing director of Northstar Commodity.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade Sv1 settled 20 cents higher at $11.12-1/4 a bushel.

The news surprised traders who have expected China to focus on buying cheaper Brazilian beans in the coming months as Brazil’s new crop comes onto the market.

Many traders are optimistic that China will fulfill its verbal commitment to purchase additional bushels, which in addition to demand from other countries and soy processing plants, would drastically change the U.S. soybean supply.

Some market players, however, have remained cautious given the potential strain on U.S. supply from the new export volume cited by Trump.

Such additional purchases may represent a political gesture by Beijing, despite higher costs, ahead of a planned visit by Trump to China in April, according to analysts.

CBOT wheat Wv1 closed 8-1/2 cents higher at $5.35-1/4 a bushel while corn Cv1 closed 5-1/2 cents higher at $5.35 per bushel.

Nearly all Russian crops were in normal condition as of February 5, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev was quoted as saying on Thursday.

Wheat traders have been monitoring severe cold in U.S., Russian and Ukrainian production belts, but snow cover is expected to limit potential crop losses.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing, Gus Trompiz in Paris.

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However, bullish fundamentals, including a tight cattle supply and the ongoing closure of the southern border to Mexican cattle imports, will continue to add strong support to prices.

CME April live cattle LCJ26 finished 5.275 cents lower at 535.25 cents per pound, while March feeder cattle FCH26 finished 6 cents lower at 364.075 cents per pound.

Workers at a the Greeley JBS beef plant authorized a strike after the close of trade on Wednesday, though it is unclear whether a strike will actually take place.

“We have been bargaining for eight months and JBS has prevented us from reaching a contract as a result of their Unfair Labor Practices. They continue to increase chain speeds and create dangerous working conditions all while reducing hours for workers. At the same time, the company is insisting on being able to steal workers’ pay through improper wage deductions. JBS has left us no alternative but to authorize a strike. Enough is enough,” said Leticia Avalos, a JBS worker in a press release.

A strike at the plant would likely depress cash cattle prices, which would in turn weigh on futures.

“It would be moderately important, but it’s one plant. It wouldn’t take more than two or three bucks out of cash cattle at most. It’s something of a concern but we have some skepticism over how successful they will be,” said Rich Nelson, director of research at Allendale.

Hog futures ended little changed, though strong demand for pork and a tight hog herd provided a floor on prices.

CME April lean hogs LHJ26 settled 0.70 cent lower at 98.45 cents per pound.

The USDA priced choice boxed beef ticked 77 cents lower at $367.25 per hundredweight (cwt) as of Thursday afternoon, and select boxed beef fell $1.72 to $360.37 per cwt.

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In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said China is “lifting the Soybean count to 20 Million Tons for the current season (They have committed to 25 Million Tons for next season!”

By late January, China had purchased roughly 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, fulfilling a U.S.-stated pledge to purchase that volume by the end of February after a late-October trade truce spurred buying.

China, by far the biggest buyer of U.S. soybeans, had exited the U.S. market during the prolonged tit-for-tat trade war between the two countries. Market players closely monitor China to watch for signs of fresh demand.

The most-active soybean contract Sv1settled 26-1/2 cents higher at $10.92-3/4 a bushel.

Soyoil futures continued a day-earlier rally supported by updated U.S. government guidance on tax credits for biofuel, a major source of demand for soyoil.

Soybean by-product soyoil BOv1 rose 1.17 cent to close at 55.66 cents per pound.

The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday released updated guidance on biofuel tax credits, a move welcomed by traders as giving clarity to biofuel producers.

CBOT corn Cv1 closed 1 cent higher at $4.29-1/2 per bushel amid a flurry of technical trading, while CBOT wheat Wv1 closed 2 cents lower at $5.26-3/4 per bushel.

Ample global supply continued to cap grain prices as traders started to look ahead to world crop forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture next Tuesday for fresh direction.

The dollar rose on Wednesday, making U.S. crops more expensive internationally.

Easing concerns over crop winterkill in Ukraine and Russia following a prolonged period of severe cold in the Black Sea region has added pressure to the wheat market.

-Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing

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CME April live cattle LCJ26 finished 0.175 cent higher at 241.80 cents per pound, while March feeder cattle FCH26 finished up 2.15 cents to 370.075 cents per pound.

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s biannual report stated the U.S. cattle herd had fallen to its smallest size since 1951.

Many traders believe the U.S. is unlikely to resume imports of Mexican cattle into the U.S. due to the continuous spread of screwworm in northern Mexico, further constraining supply.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday announced it will disperse glow-in-the-dark, sterile flies in Mexico, closer to the U.S. border, and in southern Texas, as officials race to keep flesh-eating New World screwworm pests from spreading into the U.S., the agency said.

The northernmost active case in Mexico was about 200 miles away from the U.S. border, and cases have continued to spread in Tamaulipas and further south in Mexico.

Hog futures also gained support from a relatively low hog herd. Strong export demand for hogs has winnowed away the hog herd in the U.S.

CME April lean hogs LHJ26 settled 0.30 cent higher at 98.45 cents per pound.

The USDA priced choice boxed beef ticked 57 cents lower to $370.14 per hundredweight (cwt) as of Wednesday morning, and select boxed beef fell 52 cents to 366.71 per cwt.

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The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade Sv1 settled 5-1/2 cents higher at $10.65-3/4 a bushel, recovering from a three-session fall. CBOT wheat Wv1 closed 1 cent higher at $5.28-3/4 per bushel, and CBOT corn Cv1 closed 2-3/4 cents higher at $4.28-1/2.

Market players are continuing to parse through the Treasury’s updated guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production tax credit, which – among other changes – clarified that only feedstocks from the U.S., Mexico and Canada qualify for the tax credit and extended the credit to 2029.

“A lot of the support is from the release of 45Z guidance from the Treasury this morning. It gave some clarity and additionality for biofuel producers,” said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company.

Biofuels are a major source of demand for soyoil, traders said. The long-awaited guidance also helped push corn futures higher as the grain is used to produce ethanol, another major biofuel.

Grains had been dragged lower on Monday by a selloff in commodities, fuelled by a de-escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran and a rising dollar. But a steadying of broader commodities markets, particularly crude oil, on Tuesday provided support for grains and soybeans.

Ample global supply continued to hang over the market.

In South America, Brazil is in the early stages of harvesting what is forecast to be a record soybean crop.

Brokerage StoneX and consultancy Celeres raised their forecasts for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop on Monday, citing higher yields than previously expected.

In wheat, concerns were easing about cold weather damage to crops in the U.S. and the Black Sea region, though wheat futures gained some spillover support from corn and soy futures.

-Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing

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CME April live cattle LCJ26 finished 2.1 cents higher at 241.625 cents per pound, while March feeder cattle FCH26 finished up 1.575 at 367.925 cents per pound.

CME April lean hogs LHJ26 settled 1.525 cents higher at 98.15 cents per pound.

“There’s still residual leftover support from the inventory report on Friday showing tightening supplies,” said Dan Basse, president of AgResource. “It’s still a bullish tailwind.”

The nation had 86.2 million cattle and calves as of January 1, the USDA said in the report, after a persistent drought drove ranchers to slash their herds. That was down 0.4 per cent from a year earlier, when the herd also hit its lowest level since 1951.

Market players meanwhile are keeping a close eye on the spread of screwworm in Mexico as it inches closer to the U.S.-Mexico border.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will disperse glow-in-the-dark, sterile flies in Mexico, closer to the U.S. border, and in southern Texas, as officials race to keep flesh-eating New World screwworm pests from spreading in Mexico, the agency said.

The northernmost active case in Mexico was about 200 miles away from the U.S. border, and cases have continued to spread in Tamaulipas and further south in Mexico.

The USDA priced choice boxed beef at $370.87 per hundredweight (cwt) as of Tuesday morning, up $2.66 from the previous day, and select boxed beef at $367.76 per cwt, up $2.85.

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Chicago Board of Trade most-active soybeans Sv1 settled down four cents to $10.60-1/4 a bushel. Wheat Wv1 closed 10-1/4 cents lower at $5.27-3/4 a bushel, and corn Cv1 closed down 2-1/2 cents to $4.25-3/4 per bushel.

A rising dollar, which makes U.S. exports less competitive, has put pressure across the board on commodities. The dollar clung to its gains on Monday as investors weighed what the U.S. Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh might look like, with his preference for a smaller balance sheet.

“Weakness in energies is 99 per cent responsible for what’s going on in grains markets,” said Jim Gerlach, president of A/C Trading. “You can’t have crude down four per cent to five per cent and not see corn and soybeans suffer as a result.”

Corn and soybeans, whose byproducts are used to produce biodiesel, often track weakness in crude oil prices.

In South America, Brazil is in the early stages of harvesting what is forecast to be a record soybean crop. Traders expect China to turn mainly to Brazil for imports in the coming months after a recent wave of U.S. soybean purchases.

Rains across key agricultural regions in western Argentina improved soil moisture conditions, yet soy and corn crops will still need more rainfall in the coming weeks to avoid yield losses. But harvesting of Argentina’s big new crop is finishing, traders said.

Chicago wheat drew background support from severe cold in the wheat belts of the U.S. and the Black Sea region, though snow cover helped protect crops from winterkill in many areas. Traders are also monitoring forecasts of deep frost in Ukraine this week that could cause crop damage.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing and Michael Hogan in Hamburg

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Wheat futures were little changed as the market also paused following losses triggered by U.S. Department of Agriculture crop data on Monday.

“We ran out of some selling and we’re now seeing a bounce, but it’s nothing more than that. Whether the cat is dead or alive, we’ll have to see in a day or two,” said Dan Basse, president of AgResource, referring to a so-called dead cat bounce, a market phenomenon in which an asset recovers briefly amid a long decline.

An easing dollar and strength across commodity markets, supported by geopolitical turbulence, also helped underpin grains, analysts said.

The most-active soybean contract Sv1 on the Chicago Board of Trade settled 3-3/4 cents higher at $10.42-1/2 per bushel, after reaching its lowest since October 23 in the previous session.

CBOT corn Cv1 settled up 2-1/4 cents to $4.22 per bushel, after dropping to its weakest since October 16 on Tuesday. CBOT wheat Wv1 settled 2 cents higher at $5.12-1/2 per bushel, steadying after a two-session fall.

The USDA surprised grain markets on Monday by increasing its estimate to a record 2025 U.S. corn harvest, while also pegging U.S. quarterly stocks of the cereal at their largest ever.

In a series of crop reports, the agency also estimated the last U.S. soybean harvest was larger than many traders and analysts had expected. At the same time, it cut its U.S. export outlook and raised its estimate for Brazil’s harvest.

The soybean market nonetheless found some support in ongoing demand from China, as Beijing books U.S. supplies under a trade truce with Washington agreed in late October, though an expected record harvest in Brazil may soon dent Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans.

-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang by Beijing, Naveen Thukral in Singapore and Gus Trompiz in Paris

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