During the latter part of the weekend of March 7 to 8, crude oil futures vaulted to nearly US$120 per barrel. Flynn said the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf state countries shutting down their production drove up prices.

However, by the mid-afternoon of March 9, those sharp increases moderated somewhat, with the nearby contracts for West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil trading at about US$90 to US$95/barrel.

Why it matters: sharply higher crude oil prices are driving up prices for fertilizer and liquid natural gas

“It shows you how the market is running on fear as well as reality,” Flynn said. “The markets are coming back down on the fact that the military (successes) the U.S. and Israel are having right now.”

Playing into the softening of crude oil’s gains was talk of releasing 300 million to 400 million barrels from the global strategic reserves.

“By talking about it, is easing concerns,” Flynn said.

Two schools of thought

He pointed to two schools of thought regarding current crude oil prices. “You got some people who believe Iran can keep the havoc for week or months. Other people think (Iran) is on its last leg.”

Flynn acknowledged that the Middle East war is not yet over, that it’s still generating good amounts of uncertainty and volatility in the markets.

“But the flip side of it, is it reasonable to believe the whole world is just going to stand by and let Iran shut down that strait for an extended period of time? I don’t think so,” he stated.

The analyst also pointed out that China is very dependent on Middle East oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz. He suggested there could be pressure on Iran to allow tankers heading to China to pass through.

With all that, Flynn expressed a note of caution. “We can’t underestimate Iran’s ability to keep up havoc for a week or two.”

And he noted there isn’t a global shortage of crude oil just yet, rather there are issues in transporting it out of the Persian Gulf.

As for United States demand for crude, Flynn said domestic producers can ramp up their production efforts.

“A lot of them have been cutting back because prices have been low. This might be a catalyst for them to bring out more oil,” he said.

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The June live cattle contract added 1.600 cents at 196.800 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures advanced 3.400 cents at 278.700 cents per pound.

The USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Friday afternoon, as choice boxes dipped seven cents at $334.22 per hundredweight and select boxes were down $1.00 at $313.96.

Thursday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 114,000 head, down 9,000 from the previous Thursday.

The June contract for lean hog prices nudged up 0.150 of a cent on Friday at 93.325 cents per pound.

The department reported Thursday’s federally inspected hog slaughter of 488,000 head, up 34,000 from a week ago.

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The June live cattle contract retreated 3.175 cents at 195.200 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures dropped 2.900 cents at 275.300 cents per pound.

The USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Thursday afternoon, as choice boxes lost $3.57 at $334.29 per hundredweight and select boxes fell $5.65 at $314.96.

The USDA also said beef export sales for the week ended April 3 of 11,855 tonnes, the highest in three weeks.

Wednesday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 123,000 head, down 2,000 from the previous Wednesday.

The June contract for lean hog prices added 1.475 cents on Thursday at 93.175 cents per pound.

The USDA said export sales of pork amounted to 23,854 tonnes, down by more than half from the previous week.

The department reported Wednesday’s federally inspected hog slaughter reached 487,000 head, up by 25,000 from a week ago.

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Trump said the suspension of the levies comes as more than 75 countries were set to negotiate trade with the U.S. or had not taken retaliatory action. However, Trump increased duties on China to 125 per cent from 104 per cent. Meanwhile, China will further raise their tariffs on the U.S. to 84 per cent.

The June live cattle contract advanced 4.750 cents at 198.375 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures climbed 6.475 cents at 278.200 cents per pound.

The USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday afternoon, as choice boxes shed 24 cents at $337.86 per hundredweight and select boxes lost $1.45 at $320.61.

Tuesday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 122,000 head, for a slip of 1,000 from the previous Tuesday.

Lean hog prices were higher on Wednesday as the June contract stepped up 1.925 cents at 91.700 cents per pound.

The USDA reported Tuesday’s federally inspected hog slaughter amounted to 488,000 head for an increase of 23,000 from a week ago.

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United States President Donald Trump is determined to add another 50 points to its tariffs on the country’s imports from China. Together with previous and current duties, that would bring the total levies China is facing to 104 per cent. Trump stated tomorrow’s increase would be cancelled, if China cancelled its 34 per cent tariffs on its U.S. imports.

The June live cattle contract dropped 0.550 of a cent at 193.625 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures gained 0.450 of a cent at 271.775 cents per pound.

The USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were either side of unchanged on Tuesday afternoon, with choice boxes slipping $1.40 at $338.10 per hundredweight and select boxes rose $2.76 at $322.06.

Monday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter tallied 108,000 head, up 4,000 from the previous Monday.

Lean hog prices were mostly lower on Tuesday with the June contract giving up 0.275 of a cent at 89.775 cents per pound.

The USDA reported Monday’s federally inspected hog slaughter was 488,000 head, an increase of 24,000 from a week ago.

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Furthermore, on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump upped those levies on China from 34 per cent to now 50 per cent should China not drop their 34 per cent levies on the U.S.

The June live cattle contract lost 4.025 cents at 194.175 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures dropped 3.600 cents at 271.275 cents per pound.

Despite the above losses, the USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Monday afternoon, with choice boxes up $1.05 at $339.50 per hundredweight and select boxes added $2.12 at $319.30.

Last week’s federally inspected cattle slaughter tallied 591,000 head, down 16,000 from the previous week.

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission reported Commitment of Traders data as of April 1 increased the net long in live cattle by 4,885 contracts, bringing it to 142,777. On feeder cattle, the net long stepped back by 763 contracts from a record 33,369.

Lean hog prices were lower on Monday with the June contract down 1.500 cents at 90.050 cents per pound.

The USDA reported last week’s federally inspected hog slaughter came to 2.52 million head, down 40,000 from the previous week.

The Commitment of Traders report said the net long on lean hog futures added 3,963 contracts at 55,326.

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In the fallout from the job losses, AVMA president Sandra Faeh said the association wants to work with Congress and the Trump administration to restore key positions with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. In particular, those that dealt with bird flu, animal and human food safety and other issues. The AVMA cited the leadership and administrative staff fired at the FDA’s Veterinary Laboratory Investigation and Response Network which tests pet food for bird flu.

Since 2022, almost 170 million poultry have been culled in the U.S., which has led to an egg shortage. That has been alleviated somewhat by egg imports from other countries such as Turkey.

In Canada, reports said that massive loss of poultry has resulted in a shortage of broiler chicks in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island as most of the chicks are imported from the U.S.

Then in Bruce County, Ont. a number of wild birds found dead near Lake Huron tested positive for bird flu, Grey Bruce Public Health said. Late last month in Lambton County, the public health service was investigating a second reported case of the disease in birds. This came after it was confirmed to be on a poultry farm in early March.

While bird flu has been reported in all of the provinces, there are concerns that migrating birds could spread the illness much further. A CBC report stressed four key points: bird flu mutating with humans becoming susceptible to it, the level of co-operation from the U.S., any major outbreaks or culling at Canadian poultry operations, and the federal government and provinces bracing for more human infections with concerns about a pandemic.

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The June live cattle contract added 1.975 cents at 207.400 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures tacked on 0.775 of a cent at 287.925 cents per pound.

Tuesday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter was 123,000 head, down 16,000 compared to the previous Tuesday.

The USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday afternoon, with choice boxes down $2.32 at $339.90 per hundredweight, while select boxes gave up $3.24 at $318.83.

Lean hog prices were mostly lower on Wednesday. The June contract lost a half cent at 96.675 cents per pound. The USDA reported Tuesday’s federally inspected hog slaughter was 489,000 head, down 10,000 from the previous Tuesday.

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The June live cattle contract added 1.775 cents at 205.425 cents per pound.

May feeder cattle futures advanced 2.650 cents at 287.150 cents per pound.

The USDA reported wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday afternoon, with choice boxes climbing $6.96 at $342.22 per hundredweight, while select boxes were up $2.06 at $322.07. Monday’s federally inspected was 104,000 head, down 15,000 from the previous Monday.

Lean hog prices were also higher on Tuesday. The June contract rose 1.750 cents at 97.025 cents per pound. The USDA reported Monday’s federally inspected hog slaughter was 469,000 head, down 4,000 from the previous Monday.

The USDA issued its monthly fats and oils report, showing edible tallow production for February at 93.30 million pounds. That’s down four per cent from a year ago, but 31 per cent higher than January’s output.

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During the week ended Dec. 14, there were declines in Minneapolis spring wheat, as well as in Kansas City and Chicago winter wheat. A surge in the Canadian dollar, due to a weakened United States dollar, also weighed on Prairie cash prices.

Average CWRS (13.5%) prices dropped C$11.50 to C$14 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Those prices ranged from about C$312.80 per tonne in northeastern Saskatchewan to C$337.40 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from C$50.60 to C$75.30 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to United States dollars (C$1=US$0.7452), CWRS bids ranged from US$233.10 to US$251.50 per tonne. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$10.70 to US$29.10 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada ranged from C$8.00 to C$21.70 below the futures.

Average CPRS (11.5%) wheat lost C$10.90 to C$19.20 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$265.20 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$290.30 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Average CWAD prices were either side of unchanged with losses of C$5.20 to gains of C$3 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$453.50 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$457.90 per tonne in western Manitoba.

The March spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$7.1725 per bushel on Dec. 14, giving up 20 cents on the week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The March Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$6.3650 per bushel on Dec. 14, dropping 31 cents compared to a week ago.

The March Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$6.1575 per bushel on Dec. 14, falling 26.50 cents.

The Canadian dollar closed Dec. 14 at 74.52 U.S. cents, jumping nearly a full cent. Most of the loonie’s rise came after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced another interest rate freeze and suggested there could be rate cuts in 2024, which sent the U.S. dollar tumbling downward.

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