Overall, the most-active corn contract Cv1 closed down 31% over 2023, the sharpest decline since 2013 for the most globally traded commodity crop. Wheat Wv1 fell 21% this year, while soybeans Sv1 lost 15%.

Grain and oilseeds will end a run of several years of price gains linked to harvest setbacks, the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Record corn harvests this year in Brazil and the United States, as well as an all-time high for Brazilian soybean production, have helped offset severe drought in Argentina.

Improved rainfall in Argentina towards the end of the year has, however, allowed farmers to make good progress sowing the next corn and soy crops.

Next year, farmers are likely to feel the effects of lower prices and prioritize planting soybeans in the United States.

“In 2024, producers are going to be a lot more concerned about their input costs and that is where beans play a much better role for them,” said Mike Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity Analytics.

Grain markets have been assuaged by large wheat exports from Russia, which harvested another bumper crop this year, and a revival in grain shipments from Ukraine after Kyiv established a new shipping channel.

Futures prices meandered lower with thin volume on the last trading day of 2023. The most-active wheat contract Wv1 was down 3-1/2 cents at $6.28 per bushel while soybeans fell 14 cents at $12.98 a bushel. Corn settled down 3 cents at $4.71-1/4 per bushel.

The U.S. Agriculture Department reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the week ended Dec. 21 were in line with trade expectations. Sales of wheat were toward the low end of expectations and corn toward the high end of expectations.

Traders were monitoring crop conditions in Brazil to see if recent rainfall and widespread showers forecast for next week will curb drought damage in central and northern regions.

In 2024, crop markets may face tighter supplies due to adverse El Nino-related weather effects, export restrictions and higher biofuel mandates, analysts said. If El Nino effects are less than feared, farmers may grapple with mountains of corn.

–Additional reporting for Reuters by Naveen Thukral.

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Corn and soybean futures fell as traders assessed a rainy forecast in South America that could be beneficial for drought-affected crop belts in Brazil.

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wv1 ended up 8-1/2 cents, or 1.4 per cent, at $6.31-1/2 a bushel.

A bulk carrier headed to a River Danube port to load grain hit a Russian mine in the Black Sea on Wednesday, injuring two crew members, Ukrainian officials said on Thursday.

The contract also was pushed higher by funds short-covering their positions, along with the Black Sea news, said Joe Davis, director of commodity sales at Futures International.

“It’s been back and forth this whole week. It’s a holiday week, so it’s low volume. So any type of flow is going to be more pronounced in a low-volume trade,” he said.

Traders said market reaction to such incidents tended to be short-lived given disruption to maritime traffic, including through a Black Sea corridor established by Kyiv, has been limited.

The wheat market was also reacting to Egypt’s state grains buyer the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) on Thursday saying it had cancelled an international tender for wheat with no purchases made. Traders said they believed prices offered were regarded as too high.

CBOT corn Cv1 finished down 2-1/4 cents at $4.74-1/4 a bushel while soybeans settled down 8-1/2 cents at $13.12 a bushel.

Weather charts showed uneven showers in the week ahead in dry parts of central and northern Brazil, one of the top global corn and soybean producers, before widespread heavy rain expected in early January.

–Additional reporting for Reuters by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

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Soybeans ticked higher while corn moved lower as traders assessed a rainy forecast in South America, after drought exacerbated concerns over crop yield in top soy and corn exporter Brazil.

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell 13-1/4 cents, or 2 per cent, to settle at $6.23 a bushel. Without signs of strong demand, the contract wiped out most of the gains of Tuesday, when it closed more than 3 per cent higher after Ukraine struck a large Russian landing warship.

“The demand isn’t good enough to move the market itself,” said Mark Schultz, chief analyst at Northstar Commodities. “It’s not a demand-driven market, on the grains or oil seeds, at this juncture, it’s just not.”

CBOT’s most-active soybean contract Sv1 settled up 1-3/4 cents at $13.19 a bushel and corn Cv1 gave up 3-3/4 cents at $4.76-1/2 a bushel.

Weather charts showed uneven showers in the week ahead in dry parts of central and northern Brazil, before widespread heavy rain expected in early January.

For corn, precipitation in the coming weeks will also influence yields in the upcoming first-crop harvest and affect planting prospects for the larger second crop in Brazil.

“Otherwise there haven’t been any significant sales being announced to give you some type of encouragement or something else besides just watching the weather day in and day out,” Schultz said, referring to a lack of announcements by the U.S. Department of Agriculture of export sales to China and elsewhere this week.

–Additional reporting for Reuters by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

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Corn and wheat futures also traded lower.

The market fell after forecasts showed much-needed rain is likely coming in the week ahead to central and northern Brazil, where hot, dry conditions have caused concern, analysts said.

“Well, welcome to the wonderful world of weather,” said Tom Fritz, partner with brokerage EFG Group in Chicago. “We’re trading the forecast for next week, which has temperatures moderating and bringing back some normal moisture.”

The sell-off came despite the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirming sales of 125,000 metric tons of U.S. new-crop soybeans to unknown destinations, given that delivery for the crop is far off in the 2024/25 marketing year that begins Sept. 1, 2024.

Traders monitored headlines from Argentina, where the peso dropped more than 50 per cent as markets watched the first details of new President Javier Milei’s plans to steer the beleaguered economy back on track.

Milei will seek to raise export taxes to 15 per cent on some grains, though that would not impact tariffs on soy, an industry source said. Argentina is one of the world’s top exporters of processed soy oil and meal, the No. 3 for corn and an important wheat producer.

CBOT corn Cv1 fell 5-3/4 cents to $4.79-1/2 a bushel, its lowest close since Nov. 29. Wheat Wv1 slid 3.2 per cent to $6.05-1/4 a bushel after rallying to a four-month high last week on U.S. sales to China.

Global wheat demand from places like Algeria and Tunisia helped boost futures on Tuesday, but without much new demand on Wednesday, wheat lost those gains.

“The bull market needs to be fed every day,” Fritz said.

–Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

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Wheat futures plummeted after rallying last week to four-month highs, while corn was pressured by spillover weakness from wheat.

Chicago Board of Trade most-active soybeans Sv1 rose 2.5 per cent to $13.36 a bushel – its highest close in December – on weather forecasts that show the northern half of Brazil may still not be getting enough rain to offset drought conditions that are threatening crops. The nation is still on pace to produce its largest crop ever, according to analysts and the U.S. government.

Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean planting had reached 91 per cent of the expected area as of Thursday, consultancy AgRural said, compared to 95 per cent a year earlier.

“We have some potential real problems with the Brazilian crop at this juncture,” said Dale Durchholz, commodity analyst at Grain Cycles. “I think the strength in the beans is coming from there.”

Soybeans were also supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirming private sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in the 2023/24 marketing year that began Sept. 1.

CBOT most-active wheat Wv1 settled down 3.5 per cent, or 22-1/4 cents, at $6.09-1/2 per bushel after climbing nearly 5 per cent last week and hitting highs not seen since August. Corn Cv1 followed, declining 0.8 per cent, or 4 cents, to $4.81-1/2 a bushel.

Speculators and funds hold a historically heavy net short position in wheat and have not shown signs of major purchases to exit the positions, traders said. Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT wheat on Monday.

Also putting pressure on wheat was the possibility that hefty sales of U.S. wheat to China last week will not continue this week, analysts said.

–Additional reporting by Michael Hogan in Hamburg and Peter Hobson in Canberra.

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Corn fell after the USDA left its forecasts for corn production in Brazil and Argentina unchanged, while wheat declined 1.6 per cent on profit-taking after hitting a one-week high.

Declines in soybean futures set the tone. The USDA pegged Brazilian soy production at 161 million metric tons in a monthly report, down from its November estimate of 163 million but still the largest crop on record, if realized. Analysts surveyed by Reuters on average expected an estimate of 160.16 million metric tons.

“It (USDA’s report) was in line with pretty much what we were expecting, even that Brazil soybean number,” said Karl Setzer, partner at Consus Ag Consulting. “I just can’t see anything here that would warrant altering your market stance.”

Central and northern regions of the South American country have grappled with high temperatures, while southern areas faced excessive rains. However, at 161 million tons, the current 2023/24 soy crop is still on track to surpass Brazil’s previous record crop from 2022/23, which the USDA estimated at 160 million tons.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybeans Sv1 settled down 7-3/4 cents at $13.04 per bushel, retreating after setting a one-week high at $13.30-3/4. For the week, the contract fell 21 cents a bushel or 1.6 per cent.

CBOT corn Cv1 settled down 2-1/2 cents at $4.85-1/2 a bushel, finishing the week relatively flat.

Traders shrugged off support from fresh U.S. export sales of soybeans, wheat and corn. Earlier on Friday, the USDA confirmed sales of 136,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans and 110,000 tons of soft red winter wheat to China, along with sales of 165,000 tons of corn to unknown destinations.

Since Monday, the U.S. government has reported sales of 1,120,000 tons of soft red wheat to China.

CBOT’s most active wheat contract Wv1 settled Friday down 10-1/2 cents at $6.31-3/4 per bushel, but ended the week up 4.8%.

–Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra.

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Wheat and corn finished higher as traders awaited Friday’s monthly world crop report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Sv1 ended up 16-1/4 cents, or 1.3%, at $13.11-3/4 a bushel.

The rally comes three days before Argentina, the world’s top exporter of soymeal and soyoil, inaugurates Javier Milei, the nation’s new libertarian president-elect who has pledged to dollarize the economy.

“We’re hearing that with this new president coming in Argentina and that possibly, as soon as Monday, there’s going to be some type of big devaluation,” said Joe Davis, director of commodity sales at Futures International. “The details are not forthcoming yet. I don’t expect us to get too wild on our moves today.”

Additional support in soybeans stemmed from the USDA confirming private sales of 121,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2023/24 marketing year.

In addition, Brazilian crop agency Conab cut its forecast for the country’s 2023/24 soybean crop to 160.177 million metric tons, from its previous monthly forecast of 162.420 million, citing planting delays. However, the crop would still be Brazil’s largest ever.

Rain showers in parts of Brazil where drought has threatened crops have pressured soybean future prices this week, but concerns remain about an unfavourable start to the growing season.

CBOT corn Cv1 settled up 3-3/4 cents, or 0.8 per cent, at $4.88 a bushel, while wheat Wv1 finished up 8-3/4 cents, or 1.4 per cent, at $6.42-1/4 per bushel.

Attention in grain markets is turning towards Friday’s monthly world crop report from the USDA, which will include updated crop production estimates for South America.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the USDA to lower its estimates of Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean and corn crops.

In its weekly export sales report, the USDA reported net U.S. corn sales in the week ended Nov. 30 at 1,288,900 metric tons and wheat sales of 356,400 tons, both in line with trade expectations.

–Additional reporting for Reuters by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra.

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Soybeans and corn turned lower as the markets grappled with a forecast of much-needed rain in South America curbing anxiety about drought damage to yields.

The most-active CBOT March wheat contract WH24 finished up 2-1/4 cents at $6.33-1/2 per bushel, paring gains after it reached $6.49-1/2, the highest on a continuous chart of the most-active contract Wv1 since Aug. 9.

Wheat futures surged after the United States Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 372,000 metric tons of U.S. soft red winter (SRW) wheat to China, the third sale announced in recent days.

The USDA has confirmed bookings of more than 1 million metric tons of wheat to China since Monday, the biggest one-week sales total to the Asian country since July 2014 and close to the largest weekly amount ever.

“They definitely have a buying program going and I don’t think they are done,” said Jeff Thompson, an analyst with Marex Capital.

The USDA also confirmed fresh sales of 136,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China.

Despite the demand, benchmark CBOT soybeans Sv1 settled down 10 cents at $12.95-1/2 per bushel after falling to 12.93-3/4, the contract’s lowest price since Oct. 13. Corn Cv1 ended down 6-1/4 cents at $4.84-1/4 a bushel.

Corn and soybean were pressured by weather forecasts for Brazil and parts of South America, where rain was predicted over the next two weeks, checking worries regarding the impact of drought on crop yields.

Traders await updated crop estimates on Thursday from Brazilian government agency Conab as well as monthly supply/demand reports due Friday from the USDA. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the USDA to lower its estimates of Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean and corn crops.

–Additional reporting for Reuters by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra.

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Soybeans ended narrowly mixed as traders monitored crop weather in top soy producer Brazil, while corn rose for a fifth straight session.

Benchmark CBOT March wheat WH24 finished up 10-3/4 cents at $6.31-1/4 per bushel after reaching $6.36-1/4, the contract’s highest since Sept. 7.

Wheat rose after U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed private sales of 198,000 metric tons of U.S. soft red winter wheat to China, the second such sale in as many days. Monday’s announcement that China had purchased 440,000 tons of the grain, the largest one-off U.S. wheat export sale to China since at least 2020, added impetus to a recent rally.

“China typically doesn’t import wheat from us. We typically don’t sell wheat to anybody,” said Ed Duggan, a risk management specialist at Top Third Ag Marketing.

The news buoyed a wheat market in which speculators and funds hold a huge net short position, making it vulnerable to bouts of short-covering that push prices higher.

CBOT March corn CH24 settled up 5 cents at $4.90-1/2 a bushel, its highest close since Nov. 16. CBOT January soybeans Sv1 settled down 3/4 a cent at $13.05-1/2 per bushel, paring losses after a dip to $12.94, the contract’s lowest since Oct. 26.

Crop weather in dry areas of Brazil remained a key issue. Recent downpours coupled with more rains expected in the coming weeks could bring much-needed relief to the region and bolster yield prospects in the world’s biggest soy supplier.

Attention in grain markets is turning too towards Friday’s monthly world crop report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which will include updated crop production estimates for South America. USDA/EST

–Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra

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Corn ended narrowly mixed, supported by a favorable export inspection report by the U.S. government, while soybeans declined, hitting a one-month low.

CBOT March wheat WH24 settled up 17-3/4 cents at $6.20-1/2 per bushel after rising to $6.26-1/2, the contract’s highest since Oct. 20 and the highest on a continuous chart of the most-active contract Wv1 since Aug. 28.

Wheat surged after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed private sales of 440,000 metric tons of U.S. soft red winter wheat to China, marking the Asian country’s largest purchase of U.S. wheat since at least 2020.

“I think the fact that China’s coming in for U.S. soft red wheat and not picking it up on the Black Sea would suggest that we are finally starting to see some stable prices,” said Mike Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity Analytics.

Meanwhile, CBOT January soybeans SF24 ended down 18-3/4 cents or 1.4 per cent at $13.06-1/4 per bushel, the contract’s lowest since Oct. 31. Analysts continued to monitor weather conditions in drought-stricken Brazil, where the forecast of rain is helping ease concern about crop losses in the world’s largest soy supplier.

“We’ll know a lot more here between now and the middle of December; that is crunch time for South American production in terms of irreversible potential losses,” Zuzolo said.

Actively traded March corn CH24 settled 3/4 cent higher at $4.85-1/2 a bushel but stayed inside of Friday’s trading range.

Corn drew support from USDA’s weekly export inspections report, which showed more than 1.2 million metric tons of the yellow grain were inspected for export in the latest week, well above trade expectations for 350,000 to 900,000 tons.

Export inspections of U.S. wheat and soybeans fell below expectations.

–Additional reporting by Michael Hogan in Hamburg and Mei Mei Chu in Beiijng.

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