Why it matters: Canadian canola could see increased European demand if more Ukrainian rapeseed is processed domestically instead of making its way into export channels.

Ukraine is the world’s leading exporter of sunflower oil, but production may decline significantly in the 2025/26 season as drought and high temperatures in the southern regions of the country have significantly reduced the sunflower harvest.

ASAP Agri analyst Victoria Blazhko told the Latifundist agricultural website that Ukraine’s 2025 sunflower seed harvest could total 10.4 million tonnes from about 12 million tonnes in 2024.

The consultancy has consistently lowered its harvest forecast to 10.4 million tonnes from 10.8 million tonnes and 11.4 million tonnes due to deteriorating weather conditions.

Blazhko said Ukraine has the capacity to process at least 20 million tonnes of oilseeds a year, and with the low sunseed crop, companies have started processing soybeans and rapeseed. Exports of soybeans and rapeseed were effectively halted at the start of the season due to the introduction of a 10 per cent export duty.

She said that rapeseed processing was likely to reach a record 1.4 million tonnes compared to 490,000 tonnes last season, while soybean processing was expected to rise to three million tonnes from 2.8 million tonnes.

“Domestic processing is increasingly replacing exports, and the balance in the market is shifting in favour of processing factories,” Blazhko said.

In previous seasons, Ukraine has exported most of its rapeseed and soybean harvest.

Analyst APK-Inform said last month Ukrainian sunflower oil output could decrease to 5.13 million tonnes in 2025/26 from 5.24 million tonnes in 2024/25 and 6.63 million tonnes in 2023/24.

APK-Inform also said Ukrainian soybean exports could fall to 2.43 million tonnes in 2025/26 from 4.16 million tonnes in 2024/25, while exports of rapeseed may fall to 2.35 million tonnes from 3.14 million tonnes in 2024/25.

— Reporting by Pavel Polityuk

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Rain delayed harvest progress throughout much of Manitoba, with Kane in the central region receiving the most at nearly 78 millimetres, while Poplarfield in the Interlake got four.

Harvest progress

The weekly provincial crop report said combining of winter wheat and fall rye is 100 per cent complete. The winter wheat yielded 50 to 80 bushels per acre and the fall rye ranged from 60 to 100.

Of the other reported crops being combined around the province:

• Field peas 99 per cent done, yielding 30 to 75 bu./ac.

• Spring wheat 79 per cent harvested, yielding 50 to more than 60 bu./ac.

• Barley 77 per cent finished, yielding 60 to 70 bu./ac.

• Oats 63 per cent complete, yielding 100 to 150 bu./ac.

• Canola 18 per cent finished, yielding 30 to 60 bu./ac.

Of those Manitoba crops yet to see their harvests get underway, the corn was in the R5 (dent) stage, flax reached the brown capsule stage, and the majority of sunflowers have finished flowering. Also, the dry beans are in the R8 to R9 growth stages and most soybeans are at R6 to R7.

Manitoba Ag reported spring wheat conditions have remained very firm at 80 to 90 per cent good to excellent, with fair ratings holding at 10 to 20 per cent.

Forages, pastures

With the recent frosts, producers are cautioned to watch for elevated levels of nitrates in greenfeed, crop silage still standing or in cereal regrowth.

Rainy cool weather slowed regrowth on pastures and hay lands with the frost delaying it even more. Cattle producers continued to make their way through their second cut of hay, with poor yields. Dairy producers were working on their third cut, with yields better than their second cut.

Pastures across Manitoba are reported to be in good shape with cattle remaining on them. However, rivers and dugout water levels are quite low.

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Combining reached 29 per cent completion, the province’s weekly crop report said. The winter wheat and fall rye harvests were 99 per cent complete, while field peas were at 95 per cent. Barley and spring wheat were at 65 and 59 per cent, respectively, while oats were at 41 per cent. Canola was 10 per cent combined.

The most rainfall was recorded at Kane in the central region at 60.3 millimetres, with Dominion City in the east and Newdale in the southwest receiving 31.2 and 30.9 mm, respectively. Several areas across Manitoba received no rainfall.

Total precipitation accumulations this season were below 60 per cent compared to the 30-year average in the Interlake and parts of the Northwest and Eastern regions. Parts of the Southwest have accumulated higher than normal precipitation levels since May 1.

Spring wheat conditions ranged from 80 to 90 per cent good to excellent, while producing 50 to 60 bushels per acre. Winter wheat yields ranged from 50 to 80 bu./ac., while fall rye was at 60 to 110. Barley was at 60 to 70 bu./ac., while oats were at 100 to 150. Most corn was in the R5 (dent) stage of growth.

Canola yields were from 45 to 60 bu./ac. as swathing and desiccation were ongoing. Flax was in the brown capsule stage and most sunflowers have completed flowering. Avian Control, a bird repellent, received emergency registration in sunflowers to reduce damage by blackbirds. However, the treatment, which can be applied up to the day of harvest, can cause damage such as leaf discolouration.

Field pea yields ranged from 30 to 75 bu./ac., averaging approximately 60 bu./ac. Dry beans were in the R7 and R8 stages, while most soybeans were in the R5 and R6 stages.

Warm weather and improved moisture conditions in some areas allowed pastures to regrow, providing extra grazing days for livestock. Second cut harvest yields for beef producers were below-average and dairies were on their third cut, which were seeing higher yields than the second cut. Slough hay and straw yields appeared to be average. Silage corn harvest is set to begin in two weeks as most corn were in the dent stage.

Cattle on pasture were in good condition while producers monitor for foot rot, fly pressure and pneumonia. Water levels were mixed, causing some producers to move cattle or haul water. Winter feed supplies were also mixed with some producers sourcing additional feed and others with a surplus selling their own.

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Locusts, which can destroy huge areas of crops in a matter of days, traditionally breed in secluded places along rivers or in uncultivated areas, and controlling that is almost impossible in regions neighbouring the frontline.

Why it matters: Locusts are destroying crops in Ukraine, a major global exporter of grain and oilseeds.

The situation is complicated by record high temperatures this summer, the inability to use aircraft for locust control and the absence of birds – locusts’ natural predators – which are avoiding the combat zone.

Local and government officials declined to provide data on the extent of the locust infestation or damage caused so far. Ukraine is the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter and before the war ranked fifth among wheat exporters.

Swarms of locusts are covering roads, fields and bushes in Zaporizhzhia region and farmers say the insects have destroyed up to a third of their sunflower crops.

“We saw a big swarm. And the next day the ‘infantry’ marched in. The small ones, they ate everything that was hanging low, they ate everything,” said Oleh Tolmatov, 46, a resident of Kushuhum village in Zaporizhzhia region.

Russia, which invaded Ukraine in 2022, has partially occupied the southern Ukrainian regions of Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv and Kherson, forcing farmers to abandon their fields.

Grains and oilseeds are traditional crops for these regions.

“The reason for all of this is high temperatures, the reason for all of this is abandoned land, the reason for all of this is the corresponding Russian aggression,” Vadym Chaikovskyi, Ukraine’s Chief Phytosanitary Inspector, told Reuters.

Denys Marchuk, deputy head of Ukraine’s largest farm producers’ union UAC, said that the destruction of the Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River by Russian troops two years ago had created huge swampy areas where locusts are breeding.

Kyiv says that Russia blew up the Kakhovka dam in the summer of 2023, draining thousands of square kilometres of the former reservoir and leaving farms and Europe’s largest nuclear power plant without water.

— Reporting by Sergiy Chalyi

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That’s 10 points more than where planting was last week and 10 above the five-year average. Also, it’s 12 points more than where farmers were this time last year.

The Manitoba crop report said the province’s east, northwest and Interlake regions have precipitation accumulations of 60 per cent below normal. However, the southwest and central region are upwards to 140 per cent above accumulations.

Over the last week, Sprague in the province’s southeast corner received the most rain at 4.7 millimetres, far more than the rest of the province. Most other areas had very little to no rain.

Cereals

The report said farmers have finished planting their spring wheat, while oats and barley were at 97 per cent complete. Cereal growth ranged from the two-leaf to five-leaf stage, depending on the crop and when it was planted. Some of the spring wheat was tillering.

As for the winter cereals, the winter wheat was at the flag leaf to boot stage and the fall rye at boot to head emergence.

Corn planting, for grain and silage, was finished and many fields were at the V1 to V2 stage.

Oilseeds

Farmers were still planting their oilseeds, with flax three-quarters finished, canola at 90 per cent, soybeans at 93 per cent and sunflowers just short of completion at 98 per cent. The report said emerged canola ranged from the cotyledon to the five-leaf stage.

Pulses

The province’s field peas were all planted, with the crop at the two to five node stage, while farmers hit 90 per cent sown for their dry beans.

Forages

The report said dairy producers were making their first cut of alfalfa in parts of the Interlake and central regions. However, forages need moisture.

As of June 4, rain is in the weather forecast come the weekend and the latter part of the coming week.

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The current pace stood 12 points above the five-year average, rather remarkable given the amount of rain Manitoba received over the last eight days.

For cereals, the report said most of the province’s spring wheat has been seeded, while oats and barley catching up. Also, the winter wheat and fall rye were in average to above average condition.

Among the oilseeds, the planting of sunflowers was more than 80 per cent finished, with canola and flax at 30 per cent each.

Manitoba Ag placed soybeans at 40 per cent planted.

For the pulses, field peas reached 96 per cent complete while dry beans were getting started.

The department noted the largest amount of rainfall was 88.5 millimetres in the Morden area, down to 3.2 mm in the Elma area.

The cooler temperatures Manitoba has experienced has slowed forage growth, but that and pasture conditions are expected to improve. However, in the province’s southeast recent wildfires adversely impacted pastures and infrastructure.

Nearly all of Manitoba’s corn for silage or for grazing has been planted.

The ag department reported a number of pests are active, including striped and cruciferous beetles, dingy cutworms, wireworms in the central region. In the Interlake, flea beetles are becoming more common and there have been low counts of diamondback moths in traps.

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Manitoba Agriculture said about half of the spring wheat in the central and Interlake regions has been seeded. As well as corn, barley and oats were going into the ground along with canola, sunflowers, soybeans and field peas.

Survival rates for fall rye and winter wheat look good so far, with up to 90 per cent of both crops in the central region. Most of those winter crops have been fertilized. Also, numerous hay fields have been fertilized while current supplies remain adequate.

Overall, planting progress advanced five points on the week. The current pace is twice that this time last year and two points ahead of the five-year average.

Fields throughout most of Manitoba have dried out and can support farm machinery.

An overhanging factor is continuing good soil moisture. The report said the most precipitation was nearly 13 millimetres in the Virden area, with Gardenton in eastern Manitoba next at five. Most regions are well below their precipitation levels, except for the southeast with more than 100 per cent compared to its 30-year average.

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Why it matters: Ukraine is a major player on the world wheat export market, with production there influencing global trade flows.

“April’s cold weather has affected the sowing season – it has actually stopped for a week. Compared to last year, 200,000 hectares less land has been sown so far,” first deputy farm minister Taras Vysotskiy commented to the state news agency Ukrinform.

As of April 11, 1.25 million hectares of spring crops were planted, comprised of 612,200 hectares of barley, with wheat at 141,100, peas at 182,800 and oats at 106,100.

APK-Inform

Meanwhile, APK-Inform projected Ukraine’s grain production for 2025/26 to grow 7.5 per cent at 57.52 million tonnes. Of that, the corn crop is to expand 17.8 per cent at 29.16 million tonnes, but wheat is to slip 1.2 per cent at 21.50 million. The barley is expected to come in at 5.30 million tonnes.

The consultancy noted the country’s ag ministry had yet to issues its grain outlook for 2025/26, but said the seeded area is to be about the same as 2024/25.

As for Ukraine’s oilseeds, APK-Inform provided mixed projections. On the plus side, the sunflower crop for 2025/26 is to improve 13.7 per cent at 15.16 million tonnes. Also, sunflower oil production is to increase 13.9 per cent at 6.5 million tonnes. However, Ukraine’s soybean output is to contract 7.7 per cent at 5.90 million tonnes and its rapeseed harvest is to shrink 8.4 per cent at 3.40 million tonnes.

In terms of exports, APK-Inform projected increases in the grains, with overall exports rising 11.4 per cent from 2024/25 at 42.58 million tonnes. Outbound movements of corn are to jump 19.5 per cent in 2025/26 at 24.50 million tonnes, with wheat up 1.7 per cent at 15 million.

The consultancy estimated sunflower seed exports to be up 27.3 per cent at 140,000 tonnes, but the seed’s oil exports to improve 15.8 per cent at 6.17 million tonnes. However, those for soybeans are to slip 1.1 per cent at 3.56 million tonnes and rapeseed is to drop 13.4 per cent at 2.72 million.

Ukraine’s 2025/26 ending stocks are to see total grain bump up 2.3 per cent at 4.52 million tonnes, according to APK-Inform. The carryover for corn to jump 19.3 per cent at 1.36 million tonnes and that for wheat is to slip 1.8 per cent at 1.10 million tonnes.

On the oilseed side, the consultancy estimated sunflower seeds ending stocks to fall 13.6 per cent at 114,000 tonnes while those for the oil are to jump 14 per cent at 179,000 tonnes. The carryout for Ukraine’s soybeans was projected to climb 4.8 per cent at 132,000 tonnes, while that for rapeseed is to drop 10.5 per cent at 17,000 tonnes.

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StatCan issued its stocks of principal field crops as of Dec.31, 2024, which showed total canola stocks at 11.38 million tonnes. That’s down from 14.09 million tonnes a year ago and it’s the tightest level since the drought year of 2021. The agency pointed to increased exports and domestic use of the oilseed for the decline.

A survey by Reuters ranged total canola stocks from 10.80 million to 13.2 million tonnes.

“This is a step further towards confirming tight canola stocks this year,” commented MarketsFarm Pro analyst Mike Jubinville.

In the breakdown of stocks, StatCan pegged on-farm canola at 9.89 million tonnes, compared to 12.92 million a year ago. However, commercial stocks bumped up to almost 1.50 million tonnes from 1.17 million.

As for all wheat, StatCan estimated total stocks at 24.48 million tonnes and the year-ago at 24.25 million. On-farm stocks were estimated at 20.94 million tonnes versus 20.24 million the previous Dec. 31. Commercial levels slipped to 3.54 million tonnes from 4.01 million. The federal agency said increased production in 2024/25 led to the larger stocks.

Of the wheat, total durum stocks accounted for 3.62 million tonnes, up from 3.19 million last year. That comprised of 3.02 million tonnes on-farm compared 2.58 million and commercial stocks of 600,000 tonnes, dipping from 610,000 tonnes.

The Reuters survey slotted total all wheat stocks at 22.50 million to 23.50 million, with durum at 1.70 million to 3.70 million tonnes.

Canada’s total corn stocks of 11.32 million were virtually unchanged from the 11.30 million the previous Dec. 31. Also, barley stocks of 4.96 million tonnes pulled back from 5.46 million, while soybeans increased to 4.15 million tonnes from 3.74 million. Oat stocks of 2.19 million tonnes slipped from 2.29 million a year ago.

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The Buenos Aires desk estimated the planted area for soybeans in 2024/25 at 17.80 million hectares, above the official USDA forecast of 16.90 million. The attaché said Argentine farmers were switching to soybeans from corn due to lingering concerns over corn stunt as well as low prices. The attaché noted the switch between the crops likely won’t be as significant as first thought due to a decline in the disease-carrying leafhopper population. The harvested area of 17.30 million hectares and production of 52 million tonnes, are the same as the department’s estimates.

The attaché differed on soybean exports, at 7.30 million tonnes compared to five million by the USDA. The crush was a pinch higher at 42 million tonnes, 500,000 more than the official call. Feed waste came in lower at 6.30 million tonnes versus the USDA’s estimate of 7.60 million. That saw a disparity in total consumption with the Buenos Aires desk at 48.30 million tonnes compared to the USDA’s 49.10 million. The attaché estimated ending stocks at 11.22 million tonnes, nearly a million tonnes tighter than the official USDA forecast of 12.18 million.

Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean crush is forecast by the attaché to generate nearly 8.30 million tonnes of soyoil, approximately one million more tonnes than the official estimate. Soyoil exports came in close with the attaché projecting 5.60 million tonnes and the USDA at 5.50 million, with ending stocks at 327,000 tonnes compared to the department’s 390,000.

As for Argentine soymeal, the attaché placed production at 32.76 million tonnes while the official call is at 32.37 million. There’s a small gap as well with soymeal exports, with the Buenos Aires desk at 29.50 million tonnes and the USDA at 28.60 million. Ending stocks varied with the attaché estimating them at 1.70 million tonnes with the USDA higher at 2.85 million.

The 2024/25 sunflower crop in Argentina was forecast to come in at four million tonnes by the attaché and the USDA. However, the Buenos Aires desk placed the crush at 3.80 million tonnes compared to the USDA’s 3.60 million but agreed on ending stocks at 675,000 tonnes.

With sunflower oil, the attaché pegged output at 1.66 million tonnes and the USDA placed it at 1.57 million. While both see exports at 900,000 tonnes, they varied slightly on ending stocks with the attaché at 675,000 tonnes and the USDA at 672,000.

As for the meal, the attaché estimated production at 1.69 million tonnes versus the department’s 1.61 million. The export projections matched at 1.05 million tonnes, but the Buenos Aires desk estimated ending stocks at 206,000 tonnes with the USDA at 257,000.

The department is scheduled to release its supply/demand estimates on Jan. 10 along with its world oilseed report.

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